Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

Essential Research records next to no change on voting intention, and a general lack of sympathy for the view that unemployment benefits haven’t kept up over the years.

The latest weekly Essential Research result maintains the outfit’s record of consistency with the major parties unchanged on last week – the Coalition leads 48% to 36% on the primary vote and 54-46 on two-party preferred – and the Greens up a point from last week’s unusually poor result to 9%.

Whereas attitudinal questions often point to a social democratic bent among the population at large, questions posed this week on Newstart indicate that this particular buck stops with unemployment benefits. Fifty-three per cent agreed with the proposition that the current welfare system created a “culture of dependency”, with only 30% opting for the alternative proposition that current benefits are “the least a civilised society should provide”. In relation to Newstart benefits specifically, 33% said they were not high enough, 30% about right, and 25% too high. As Bernard Keane notes in Crikey today, variation by party support was not as pronounced as it often is in relation to such questions.

Further questions dealt with trust in various industries, with good rankings for agriculture (72%), tourism (68%) and manufacturing (56%) and poor ones for banking (33%), mining (32%), media (30%) and, tellingly, power companies (18%). Crikey will tomorrow publish Essential’s biannual “trust in media” results, which always makes for fun reading for critics of the fourth estate.

UPDATE (25/1/13): An automated phone poll for the Tasmanian seat of Bass, conducted by ReachTEL for the Launceston Examiner, has produced a dire result for Labor, with incumbent Geoff Lyons trailing Liberal candidate Andrew Nikolic 60.3-39.7 on two-party preferred. The primary votes are 54.7% for Nikolic, 26.7% for Lyons and 8.7% for the Greens. The sample size for the poll is 543.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,884 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

Comments Page 73 of 78
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  1. Dio @ 3395
    Re Christopher Monckton visit in Feb
    I am really looking forward to this as he will be here from Feb through to April and there must be a photo opp with our Tone at some stage. Hopefully the unhinged Agenda 21 stuff gets a huge run for him and he gets on the Project and the Bolt Report and makes a complete fool of himself.

    I remember his unreported remark last time he was here, when he was asked why Labor was taxing coal. Monckton’s wonderful response was that Labor “is trying to knock out the Liberals biggest source of funding, which as we know is mining companies.”

    So Labor is putting a price on carbon so mining companies will give less money to the Libs. Monckton is a genius! (not)

    http://www.2ue.com.au/blogs/2ue-blog/lord-monckton-with-george–paul/20110709-1h7jw.html. Answer comes at 10 minute mark. (Although on second thoughts, don’t listen it will do your head in)

  5. BB

    [She got rid of Rudd in two fair ballots (one of which was abandoned because it was so pointless).]

    Fair. lol, now thats funny. By the time Kev knew what was going on the first time they had him rolled in the rug ready to be tossed in the trash.

  6. Dio:

    Not sure about organisations. I think that would bias the well-funded orgs with the capacity to do much more, rendering it no different to what we have with the AOTY Award – always to high profile people.

    Having collaborated with Fiona Wood, and having worked for Stanley, I can attest to the sincerity and passion both women have for their work. Both worthy winners of the Award.

  8. Phil Vee

    I think Abbott avoided meeting Monckton last time he was here. Monckton responded by dissing Abbott’s Direct Action plan.

    If that nutter is here for two months, it’s going to be very obvious if Abbott avoids him for that long.

    The Agenda 21 conspiracy theory is fully unhinged and 99% of Australians won’t be impressed at all with it.

  9. Diogenes quoted:

    What are you supposed to do? Promote your enemies?
    then quoted

    Obama and especially Lincoln did that.

    That accounts for much of his political problems.

  10. shellbell@3587


    Kevin,

    I like the expression “ultra green splitters”.

    Plenty of them down here because some deep Greens see the state Greens as having sold out to a pro-forestry government, and are very critical of the forests peace deal because they don’t think it goes far enough, or because of its links to the dead pulp mill proposal. Some of them are now supporting Wilkie despite him being actually paler green than the party he left (they think he’s more honest than McKim et al), and some of them (especially those living in electorates with no Wilkie) are whinging on the sidelines, threatening to vote informal, or looking around for indie campaigns.

    Kim Booth in Bass has kept faith with this lot a bit better than the other state Greens because he’s always been the bad cop of the crossbench.

    I keep expecting some kind of ultra-green party to emerge to contest the state election where it would perhaps grab 4% or so of the vote and zero seats, but so far nothing.

  13. I like the expression “ultra green splitters”.

    Given the context perhaps “ultra green splinters” would be more appropriate…

  14. The arrival of Lord Swivel Eyes will be delicious. Definite popcorn material. Read the crazy blogs and you see Tones is ‘Da Man” to sort out this commie global warming,Agenda 21 and World Government Labor party conspiracy to destroy “this once great land”. Total Tea Party fruit cake stuff. So how will the Oppositionsfuhrer Grog Monster wiggle between not annoying his fruit cake demographic without looking a fruitcake to middle ‘Sraya’ ?

  17. Definitely agree with Martin B@3582 that KAP can forget about winning Leichhardt. Haven’t studied other Qld seats in as much detail but feel I learnt a lot about that one when up there on fieldwork not long before the 2010 election.

  19. [Re Christopher Monckton visit in Feb]

    daH Monkers is comming!!! Oh joy, to the world of the lunatic fringe!!

    Wonder if he will be meeting Gina and asking her to set up a Fox News equivalent?

    Much unhingiment in the offing methinks. 🙂 Must pop over and have a look at nutter truckers. They will be so pleased at a visit from their hero.

  22. [Oh dear. The UK Economy went down 0.3% last quarter, and might be on track for a triple-dip recession.]
    More austerity required! Will their PM ask Tone for advice?

  23. Fran,

    The only memory future generations may have of you is as the writer of opaque missives.

    You need to think Nostradamus, comrade.

  24. Oakeshott Country@3361

    Yep, I also have this in my favourites http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/julia-gillards-carbon-price-promise/story-fn59niix-1225907522983 when ever “the lie” bullshit is pulled out

    it’s not a carbon tax (I wish it was, British Columbia has one and it’s a beauty, centre-right Liberal govt implemented too), it is an ETS
    This clown knows the difference (warning Abbott2009 saying a simple carbon tax would be better than an trading scheme http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ckcH0Wrmy74

    And our brain damaged partisan media pretend not to know the difference as does the dishonest opposition.

  25. Now bludgers, do you think I got out of bed at 5.30am so I could go up the hill (i am in the flatlands) to see TA get ready for his bike ride on the Tour Down Under course?

    I know it is a hard one so I will give you time to think….

  26. [The co-founder of HootSuite, one of the world’s most popular social media monitoring tools, has praised Labor’s $37.4 billion national broadband network as “awesome”, saying the infrastructure will greatly boost Australia’s start-up market.

    Dario Meli made the comments when speaking to The Australian Financial Review during the Sydney leg of a global tour to spruik his latest start-up company Quietly.

    Mr Meli drew comparisons between the NBN and Google’s Fiber service, which is connecting an entire US city to broadband internet using fibre optic cabling.

    “I heard about it last night along with a criticism that it would take ten years to do and that we wouldn’t know what the technology would be in ten years,” he said. “I don’t know [what the technology will be] but glass and fibre are pretty bad-ass and having a fibre network is gangster.]

    The NBNco announced another 100k homes being rolled out today

  27. [Carr did role Gillard]

    Dunno what that is – can I watch?

    Gillard,as always, negotiates a good outcome. Or hadn’t you noticed ….?

  31. I see a time when all the home and work pcs etc across Australia get networked together via the NBN and we become the Ultra Badass Computer of the World to solve a critical problem.

  33. John Wright.
    Uhlmann is the only conservative, most of the others are right wing nutters or sycophants to the Liberal Party.

  35. poroti@3591


    bemused

    They only had a few days to learn the game it would have been very foreign back then. Re the RAAF experience I experienced something similar when playing a local AFL side. They had no answer to our forming backlines and close passing. They also learnt what real tackles and hip and shoulders looked like
    In the early days of the Eagles Ron Alexander got rugger buggers in to teach them to tackle.

    What’s to learn? There don’t seem to be any rules, just a series of arbitrary decisions.
    Yes, those wooses just couldn’t handle a real tackle.

  36. Personally, I have no problems at all with the selection of Ita Buttrose as Oz of the Year.

    She changed popular publishing forever in many ways that were important to young women, especially in relation to their sexuality and health.

    She used her public profile to support the then unique and very far-sighted response to HIV/AIDS. She did that at a time when public reactions to AIDS were driven by medical ignorance, homophobia and political nastiness. She has since been identified with Alzheimer’s. This is a respectable cause these days, but was not always. I can remember when the first attempts to promote awareness of Alzheimer’s just prompted open derision. This disease really needed to be de-mystified and decoded. She put her name to that. She helped and it is no small thing to the millions who will will be touched by it.

    I admire her. She has stood for positive things when others lacked the courage, the intelligence and the leadership qualities that she has shown.

    She could have chosen to do other stuff – you know, become a public face of lingerie, property or banking. Of course, the best thing about her is she has never had anything much to do with cycling, golf or cricket.

  37. [it’s not a carbon tax (I wish it was, British Columbia has one and it’s a beauty, centre-right Liberal govt implemented too), it is an ETS
    This clown knows the difference (warning Abbott2009 saying a simple carbon tax would be better than an trading scheme http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ckcH0Wrmy74

    And our brain damaged partisan media pretend not to know the difference as does the dishonest opposition.]

    *Sigh* We have conceded it’s a carbon tax, comrade, so we can’t criticise the media for repeating what we ourselves, very stupidly, said.

  40. Puff – what’s the difference between a conservative and a right-winger?

    Funny you say that, my mother is extremely conservative, and refuses to watch it because she thinks it’s full of Labor hacks, like Barrie Cassidy and Leigh Sales.

  41. Greensborough Growler – Uhlmann once ran as part of a conservative christian party in the 1998 ACT election. He is no lefty.

  43. apropos nothing, except I just read it. Yet another example of scandalously poor CEO succession planning. The guy had been there for 28 YEARS, and (1) the Board has appointed a search firm and (2) the chairman claims to have no idea.
    [The $31 billion industry superannuation fund UniSuper will next week announce the retirement of its chief executive, Terry McCredden, who will leave the industry at the end of September after 28 years…

    UniSuper has appointed executive search firm Russell Reynolds to find a replacement for Mr McCredden. UniSuper chairman Chris Cuffe said the fund would consider internal and external candidates as well as those offshore. “We have no fixed ideas, we just want to see who comes forward,” he said.]
    http://www.afr.com/p/business/financial_services/unisuper_seeks_new_chief_L8XmOJ9ejs2Y6ij0FsyDeP

  44. [Fair. lol, now thats funny. By the time Kev knew what was going on the first time they had him rolled in the rug ready to be tossed in the trash]

    You still haven’t told me: what’s wrong with that?

    A bloodless coup is always best.

    It’s normal politics Rummell. They all do it. It’s the way it’s done.

    Gillard won.

    Rudd lost.

    Gillard has actually won just about everything she’s participated in, including making a goose of Tony Abbott, and handing him his gonads in a bottle for Margie to put in the famous fridge.

    The number of losers telling us Gillard is the biggest loser of them all is quite extraordinary.

    She’s done nothing but move from strength to strength.

    All this guff about how “It won’t be long until she’s gone” is based on poll figures now one year old.

    I haven’t seen her lose yet. The naysayers are wrong on that. She’s a winner. Plenty of examples.

  45. re #3643 whoops – note to self: never read AFR and then post, after too many drinks.

    McCredden has been in industry 28 years – at Unisuper only 5. Points still stand though

  46. Rummel what has happened to you a few weeks ago you were a rational person who was not happy with Tony Abbott and didn’t think you could vote for him,(remember you and I had a long conversation one night) now that person has disappeared and this other Rummel has appeared, please bring back the other Rummel:devil:

    BTW is that strong little girl of yours starting to think about the big world she is coming into? Take care of her and your wife

  48. [By the time Kev knew what was going on the first time they had him rolled in the rug ready to be tossed in the trash.]

    Had he not been so far up hisself it wouldn’t have happened. He finally learnt about fairy wings and bullshit when it came out 71 to 31. They both fly about the same.

    Kevin ‘Wallaby Edward’ Rudd.

  49. Fran,

    Basically, the Fairfax media attack Labor from the left and the News crew attack from the Right.

    Uhlmann always attacks Labor from the left. Today’s nonsense is a classic.

    He’s a Greens supporter with a dash of Catholic guilt.

  50. outsideleft,
    There is this stuff called Percutane cream. I use it for joint or muscle pain. I get it from NZ because the chemists don’t sell it here anymore. It is made from chillies. It is like mace in a cream. The only way to put it on is with latex gloves and a pastrybrush. If you rub it in, it will be as hot as hell and you will just about scream. Athletes use it for muscle injuries. (I swear by it. Bushfire Bill said it was one the worst experiences of his life)

    But by golly do not ever ever ever get any on any tender parts of the body.

    Oh, and heat reactivates it, so when you have a hot shower it starts working again.

    Now on a saddle, with so much rubbing over 127 kms… 👿

    http://www.douglas.co.nz/clinical-technology/products/percutane-joint-action/

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