Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

Essential Research records next to no change on voting intention, and a general lack of sympathy for the view that unemployment benefits haven’t kept up over the years.

The latest weekly Essential Research result maintains the outfit’s record of consistency with the major parties unchanged on last week – the Coalition leads 48% to 36% on the primary vote and 54-46 on two-party preferred – and the Greens up a point from last week’s unusually poor result to 9%.

Whereas attitudinal questions often point to a social democratic bent among the population at large, questions posed this week on Newstart indicate that this particular buck stops with unemployment benefits. Fifty-three per cent agreed with the proposition that the current welfare system created a “culture of dependency”, with only 30% opting for the alternative proposition that current benefits are “the least a civilised society should provide”. In relation to Newstart benefits specifically, 33% said they were not high enough, 30% about right, and 25% too high. As Bernard Keane notes in Crikey today, variation by party support was not as pronounced as it often is in relation to such questions.

Further questions dealt with trust in various industries, with good rankings for agriculture (72%), tourism (68%) and manufacturing (56%) and poor ones for banking (33%), mining (32%), media (30%) and, tellingly, power companies (18%). Crikey will tomorrow publish Essential’s biannual “trust in media” results, which always makes for fun reading for critics of the fourth estate.

UPDATE (25/1/13): An automated phone poll for the Tasmanian seat of Bass, conducted by ReachTEL for the Launceston Examiner, has produced a dire result for Labor, with incumbent Geoff Lyons trailing Liberal candidate Andrew Nikolic 60.3-39.7 on two-party preferred. The primary votes are 54.7% for Nikolic, 26.7% for Lyons and 8.7% for the Greens. The sample size for the poll is 543.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,884 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. http://twitpic.com/b908hh
    Herald Sun 31 Oct 2012 page 14 – Voters quizzed on MP’s reputation

    Kevin – re Reachtel, see above for a time they did a commissioned poll that was not released. It was reported in the paper edition only of the Herald Sun. I suspect it was for the Victorian Libs, but no way to know.

  2. [If Rares J had referred the papers to the DPP, things might be different.]

    shellbell:

    Why wouldn’t Rares have referred his conclusions to the DPP?

  4. ModLib

    I can’t see why they’d have lost more faith now than they did when these types were actually in power.

    From everything I’ve read/seen/heard about NSW Labor, none of what’s being revealed now should be much of a surprise to anyone, so I can’t see why it should be losing votes that weren’t already lost in 2010.

  5. [TEN News ‏@channeltennews
    BREAKING: the Australian of the Year 2013 is Ita Buttrose AO OBE #tennews
    6:51 PM – 25 Jan 13]
    How disappointing…

  7. Leroy@3505


    TEN News ‏@channeltennews
    BREAKING: the Australian of the Year 2013 is Ita Buttrose AO OBE #tennews
    6:51 PM – 25 Jan 13


    How disappointing…

    Agreed. What an opportunity missed to recognise someone who has contributed to something other than themselves.

  8. I think its for her work on dementia, I’m sure she done lots with it, but, It feels like she’s collected the whole set of awards. Surely it could go to someone who hasn’t got a gong yet.

  9. Psephos: Whenever i see Christine Milne on TV, part of me wants to lead her down to a dark cellar in Yekaterinberg….

  11. MTBW@3455

    I can’t disagree with your comments above but you win some you lose some. This time it may be the public who decides.

    Is Daryl running again? If so, I guess I’ll finally become a swinging voter.

  12. I agree with others about Ita. I’d rather have seen someone else who is unrecognised for the work they do to have won.

  14. http://www.smh.com.au/national/ita-buttrose-named-australian-of-the-year-20130125-2dbxo.html
    [Ita Buttrose named Australian of the Year
    January 25, 2013 – 6:52PM
    Jacqueline Maley

    It’s Ita. Former copy girl, journalist, famous lisper, editrix-extraordinaire. The woman who, as editor of the Australian Women’s Weekly, liked to catch the bus to work because bus trips were an excellent time to read and touch up nail polish. The lady – because she is a real lady – whose brains and strength of character saw her become the first female appointment to the News Ltd board (she said she “often felt lonely”). The single working mother who rejoiced when retail trading hours were extended in 1984 because it had been such a terrible rush, cramming all that kid-ferrying and shopping into short Saturday mornings.]
    Also mentions the other winners.

  16. MTBW
    [When you have the likes of the Obeid family Ian Macdonald and Roozendaal et al before the Courts and in the press everyday what do you expect to happen.

    People lose faith!]

    Don’t agree. They might get angry but not lose faith. The finance and corporate community are full of far worse acts of corruption and equal greed but does it reflect in lack of business? No.

    As a unionist I have not lost faith with unions despite the Kathy Jacksons et al… and as True Believer I will always believe regardless of individuals like the Obeids. Labor has its share of thieves & scoundrels just like the other side and this has nothing to do with the ideals.

  20. I’m in favour of people who have put in heaps of personal effort getting awards like Australian of the Year.

    Someone like Ita Buttrose can command heaps of financial and physical support for her “good works”. It’s nice that people in her position wll support an issue but they don’t really take the personal risks that others do. Have a look at the other candidates this year – most of them look like they have been engaged at some personal cost in their issues.

  23. [Is Daryl running again? If so, I guess I’ll finally become a swinging voter.]

    For a supposedly ruthless bunch of aparatchiks, the NSW ALP machine is singularly bad at necking people who need to be necked. So far only one retirement, Sharon Grierson, who’s far from the biggest log. As well as Melham, they ought to purge Murphy, Ferguson, Hayes and Hall.

  24. [How are the recipients selected?

    Finalists and recipients at the state/territory level are selected by an expert selection panel comprising representatives of the state/territory Australia Day organisation, National Australia Day Council and Award sponsors.

    State and territory recipients then become finalists for the national award. The national recipients in each category are selected by the Board of the National Australia Day Council.]
    http://www.australianoftheyear.org.au/nominate/frequently-asked-questions/

  25. [The single working mother who rejoiced when retail trading hours were extended in 1984 because it had been such a terrible rush, cramming all that kid-ferrying and shopping into short Saturday mornings.]
    Pass the chunder bucket. Ita the struggling single mother. Yeah right.

  29. The winner of Australia’s Local Hero award is a worthy choice:

    [Advocate for Aboriginal rights, Shane Phillips is a respected member of the Redfern Aboriginal community and is regarded as their voice on a range of youth issues, juvenile justice and Aboriginal deaths in custody. He is the fulltime CEO of the Tribal Warrior Association, a non-profit organisation directed by Aboriginal people and Elders that offers training for employment and helps at the grassroots level with emergency relief for struggling families. He also operates a mentoring program to help Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander young people to achieve their full potential. The concept is uncomplicated: it’s about forming good habits, guiding by example, including everyone and acknowledging achievements. Shane is also credited with improving the relationship between his community and the police. Since the 2009 introduction of the Clean Slate Without Prejudice program run in collaboration with the police, the number of robberies committed by local youth has declined by 80 per cent. Born and raised in Redfern, Shane is an outstanding community leader, respected by Indigenous and non-Indigenous people alike for his integrity, hard work and determination to get things done.]

    As are the Young AOTY and Senior AOTY.

  30. Hope Ita doesn’t think she can use the Australian of the Year postion to campaign against the government’s re-election, based on her previous opposition to the PM.

  32. Oakeshott Country. 3361
    Re Julia’s carbon tax promise in news.com.au

    That was the same article printed on the front page of the Oz on election day in 2010. Written by Paul Kelly and Dennis the Menace it spells out the truth that was so easily ignored by both of them soon after.

  34. Ita Buttrose. Australian of the Year? What a load of absolute rubbish.
    And now, the estimable Uhlmann is doing his absolute best to diss the decision about Nova Peris.
    The ABC, and particularly Uhlmann, are beyond a joke.
    And I would add the rubbish being unquestioningly peddled by the ABC on the health funding dispute in Victoria.

  35. So why are we even discussing a poll published only for public entertainment by the Telecrap?

    Because it is, well, entertaining. As I said before, ultimately meaningless but fun. And fun is good.

    Unfortunately, as I also said before, it is not a very good instance of this particular kind of meaningless-but-fun.

  36. Uhlmann now reporting a straw poll of Labor’s caucus” fer Chrissake!

    Putting forward the proposition that Crossin was unsackable because she’s a woman.

    Not the proper aboriginal.

    Sheesh, this bloke is full of wretchedness.

  37. Phil Vee

    That News Ltd themselves published those words and have since chosen to report as if they were never said is a disgrace. It does however reprent extremely strong support for those who claim a mordor conspiracy against the PM and government.

  38. Well done Uhlmann. He has managed to turn for me what was a “must watch” program into one on the same list I put Fox News.I cannot remember the last time I watched it. Not too long after red Kerry left I think. I wonder how many more have done the same ?

  40. The LNP grovelers must have serious concerns about their intrepid leader tone the lad, that all round sporting hero who becomes a grog monster on a few shandies after 6pm, if they think that some dodgy poll in the dt is worth citing.

    The daily torpor a $hitsheet that I wouldn’t use to wipe my bum with in case I get more $hit on my bum from the utter cr*p they think is worth printing, than I wipe off.

  41. [Julia Gillard ‏@JuliaGillard
    Congrats Ita Buttrose – Australian of the Year. Smart, classy and courageous. A great Australian. JG]

    Our PM is all class.

  43. It seems grumpy middle aged male OM people are the same all over the world. Just watching the Colbert Report’s take on Hillary Clinton chopping up Repug pollies at some hearing about Benghazi.
    Like the OM reaction to the PM’s THAT speech the US OM old farts ( Fox ,Limbaugh et al ) banged on about her anger being confected and not spontaneous.

  44. zoomster
    Posted Friday, January 25, 2013 at 5:11 pm | Permalink

    I always have a soft spot for Senator Ronaldson.

    He kept my teenage sons mesmerised during one Senate estimates hearing, by his sheer idiocy.

    Anyone who can entertain a couple of teenagers in that way must have something going for him…

    Hear, hear. He endeared me with a letter to the Warrnambool Standard attempting to stomp Cheeseman on something. He signed himself off as, “Senator for Corangamite”, making that the first electorate to have its own Senator.

  47. [zoomster
    Posted Friday, January 25, 2013 at 6:10 pm | PERMALINK
    victoria

    Did Abbott really suggest he was an alcoholic?

    Nah. He was saying he was one real cool dude who knows his way around a shandy.]

    Actually a change think Peta C said he is one cool guy, after realising they have no chance with the female vote so go for the male vote after extensive internal polling down at local pub :devil:

  48. [Why wouldn’t Rares have referred his conclusions to the DPP?]

    He would not refer his conclusions as they don’t matter for a police investigation which can only work off the evidence. The evidence can be referred. Pretty rare for such referrals nowadays.

    People lie every day in court but perjury is pretty rarely prosecuted. Maybe Moses Obeid will be one of those rare exceptions next week.

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