Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

Essential Research records next to no change on voting intention, and a general lack of sympathy for the view that unemployment benefits haven’t kept up over the years.

The latest weekly Essential Research result maintains the outfit’s record of consistency with the major parties unchanged on last week – the Coalition leads 48% to 36% on the primary vote and 54-46 on two-party preferred – and the Greens up a point from last week’s unusually poor result to 9%.

Whereas attitudinal questions often point to a social democratic bent among the population at large, questions posed this week on Newstart indicate that this particular buck stops with unemployment benefits. Fifty-three per cent agreed with the proposition that the current welfare system created a “culture of dependency”, with only 30% opting for the alternative proposition that current benefits are “the least a civilised society should provide”. In relation to Newstart benefits specifically, 33% said they were not high enough, 30% about right, and 25% too high. As Bernard Keane notes in Crikey today, variation by party support was not as pronounced as it often is in relation to such questions.

Further questions dealt with trust in various industries, with good rankings for agriculture (72%), tourism (68%) and manufacturing (56%) and poor ones for banking (33%), mining (32%), media (30%) and, tellingly, power companies (18%). Crikey will tomorrow publish Essential’s biannual “trust in media” results, which always makes for fun reading for critics of the fourth estate.

UPDATE (25/1/13): An automated phone poll for the Tasmanian seat of Bass, conducted by ReachTEL for the Launceston Examiner, has produced a dire result for Labor, with incumbent Geoff Lyons trailing Liberal candidate Andrew Nikolic 60.3-39.7 on two-party preferred. The primary votes are 54.7% for Nikolic, 26.7% for Lyons and 8.7% for the Greens. The sample size for the poll is 543.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,884 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  4. Poroti, Or even the old favourite, considering who’s on board the Nat cruise, “Titanic”. Instead of an iceberg they could run into the big duck on Sydney Harbour.

  5. Briefly …

    I agree with much of what you say. I disagree here though:

    [It is tempting to think the essence of an ethical life would be to refuse to bargain at all and to place the interests of others ahead of one’s own. And yet all this does is to put the ethical person at a practical disadvantage, to either immobilize them or open them to exploitation by the unethical.]

    It is not a question of placing the interests of others ahead of one’s own. It’s a question of what you are entitled to ask others to do for you, or the extent to which you can seek their collaboration and what would be just exchange, not merely for you but for others affected by your collaboration.

    One can start by not seeking from others what you would oppose others seeking, and likewise, assisting others in securing the things you want for yourself. One’s claim to anything that is not available to all is at best conditional — a privilege rather than a right. This reflects the view that all humans are ethical equals. If you’re entitled, so is everyone else, and if you’re not, then others aren’t either.

    I agree with utility — if there is scarcity, then misery should be settled onto the shoulders of those most fit to bear it, and if there is plenty, then let those who are suffering be first served.

  11. [CTar1
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 3:28 pm | PERMALINK
    Hello, John.

    I’m a poster that adds no value.

    Scroll past!]

    I will probably regret asking this but who on earth is “John” ?

  13. Looking more and more like Labor is doomed. Think there’s any chance at all of them coming back to win, or at least hold minority. The thing worrying me the most is that there is no advantage of incumbency, in seats held.

  14. poroti
    Well, as it’s a Nats cruise we already have two stars trying to con us into paying obscene amounts of money to admire them. So…as Truzzzzzz is the older and perhaps the uglier (although that’s debatable) he’ll have to be Leonardo. Bananaby can plonk on a blond wig, some fake titties and a pretty chiffon frock and be Kate. Now why do I get the feeling he’d enjoy frocking up?

    For decorum’s sake (and the continuing good health of everyone’s eyes) the remake will not include the scene in the back of the car and the topless portrait painting scene.

    Rumour has it that Tony Abbott is keen to have the part of the nasty fiance provided we write in a couple of boxing scenes where he gets to punch the hero in the face.

  15. Then Fran, what do you do if you have been dispossessed? As an individual? Or as a group? As a people? Where do you go for redress?

    On utility, in practice, the utilitarian solution is one that protects the greatest number of people, regardless of the consequences for the few that may lose as a result.

    The progressive appropriation of land by settlers at the expense of native interests is a case in point, here and in many other territories too.

  20. CTar:

    Who’s been saying you’re as dumb as?

    P.S. I hope we aren’t returning to the days of Obscure CTar. That period was very troubling indeed.

  23. In the Libs version of Titanic Prissie could play the Kate Winslet role and Sophie play the Leonardo character. It could be set in Alexander Downer’s bathtub.

  25. 2013 certainly looks like being a fascinating year from a political polling perspective, however polls this early in the year with many people still on holidays or in a holiday mood are pretty meaningless.
    Thanks Kevin Bonham for your perspective on poll bias. your contributions are always interesting and well thought out.I expect we will get a true picture of where things stand after the first Neilsen poll which appears to have the least bias at present.
    Best wishes for 2013 to all at PB.

  27. [davidwh
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 3:44 pm | PERMALINK
    Mari is going to knock off the turkey with a 4*2?

    Oh well can I have a drumstick please?

    72
    CTar1
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 3:45 pm | PERMALINK
    mari – For John, I doubt it.

    People start taking notice, then things will be different.]

    David WH after I have finished with my 4 x2 I doubt if even a drumstick would be recognizable, so you may have to miss out 😉

    CTar1 Possibly correct some people are so thick that even a 4 x 2 would even have problems penetrating the outer cladding 😉 Even though I have built up my muscles surfing with the grandkids over the holidays 🙂

  28. Stephen T @ 43 – I wonder what planet Andrew Bolt is reporting from?

    Yes, Tony Abbott should talk about the economy – one of the lowest unemployment rates in the Western world, inflation under 2%, interest rates at 1950’s levels, growth at 2.5 to 3% among the highest in the developed world, debt and deficit among the lowest in the developed world.

    And what’s this crap “…And I’d plea for an end to such bitter division and the punishment of dissent. Australians shouldn’t be in fear of criticising their government. Newspapers shouldn’t be threatened. Journalists should not fear the sack for what they say…”? Last I heard Tony Abbott, Alan Jones, Gina Rinehart and of course Andrew Bolt were still at large, not at all afraid to speak their minds. The daily Telegraph and the other Murdoch rags were still being published. And who’s doing his utmost to create maximum division and chaos – Tony Abbott and his allies of course.

    Of course if you’re a right winger then apparently you have no need of evidence, logic or any connection to reality.

  38. Did anyone see the headline on page 14 of yesterday’s Herald Sun?

    TRUE CONFESSIONS OF A SERIAL POLL BLUDGER

    I was trying to work out which one of you it was, but it turned out to be an article about a serial non voter – Patrick Carlyon. 😆

  39. A BISON is born. This should stop grumblings from a lot of people. Should but probably won’t .

    [
    Balances first recovered their pre-GFC highs in September last year. But thanks to a continued surge in share prices the typical balanced superannuation investment option, where most people have retirement savings, returned 11.7 per cent over 2012 ]

    http://www.theage.com.au/business/markets/doubledigit-returns-push-super-funds-to-new-highs-20130121-2d2ir.html#ixzz2IaLrzQdo

  43. ‘fess

    MT was a charmer strangely enough.

    I had morning tea with her once in the back garden.

    Her politics were not so nice.

    David’s drumstick better.

  44. Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk

    @kevinandrewsmp Record per capita GDP; lowest taxing govt in 35 yrs; avoided global recession; low inflation; tax free threshold tripled
    Retweeted by George Bludger

    Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk

    @kevinandrewsmp 835,000 new jobs; record low interest rates; triple-A credit rating; record cut in govt spending; 5 yrs of rising real wages

    Delimiter ‏@delimiterau

    Pirate Party registered for 2013 election: http://bit.ly/UdrAI4

  45. [Sorry Wazza and Bananaby, ………….
    Ah the possible names for the cruise.]
    At a $1000 per head, a small dinghy ought to suffice

  46. [78
    Steve777

    Stephen T @ 43 – I wonder what planet Andrew Bolt is reporting from?]

    Bolt and his collaborators have become delirious. Clearly, they expected to be crowned, or at the very least to be made into bishops or knights. But no-one takes them seriously.

    Their arguments have dried in their mouths even as they to speak, their words turned into wads of gum. Now they are afraid that if they try to speak, they will tear the skin from their lips, which have become stuck together by the resins of their lies. These loud-mouths have been silenced by their duplicity and by the fear that they may spit blood instead of prose, and that their lips will sting.

    They are beginning to choke on their own arguments. For this they try to blame all those around them, all those who have been trying to get them to drink some reason and some refreshing facts.

    I say to hell with them. Let their lies fill their corrupted mouths like broken teeth and cut off their air; let them snort and heave in panic. Liars. They should suffer for their crime against the truth.

  47. What has happened to Bolt’s TV programme?

    From my viewing of it – when I look for a bit of an insight into what the conservative mind is thinking – it turns out to be nothing but and anti-Labor/anti-Gillard bash.

    The beauty of being a conservative is that it does not take much intellectual effort – basically a belief in god, queen and country. This is coupled with a belief that taxes and evil and debt is worse.

    What is it about debt which gets the conservatives going?

    I have, over the time, challenged some of the fly-by conservatives who come and dump their ‘original’ thoughts here to actually list, say, half a dozen ways in which Oz would be better off under a conservative government.

    Very few take up the challenge and apart from mouth of the Menzies House mantra of do away with the mining tax, do away with the carbon set up and stop the boats (impossible), I have not seen one idea from them.

    Conservatives, like their despised currently leader are full of three word slogans and not much else.

    The are, as a group, essentially destroyers and dividers in opposition and would be little better in government.

    Of course, I am open-minded and subject to thoughtful debate (self-joke)

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