Seat of the week: Solomon

The Darwin seat of Solomon has been on a knife edge since its creation in 2001, but only with Kevin Rudd’s election win in 2007 was Labor able to get over the line.

Consisting of Darwin and its satellite town of Palmerston, the electorate of Solomon was created when the Northern Territory was divided into two electorates at the 2001 election. This appeared set to be reversed at the 2004 election, when the Northern Territory was found to be 295 residents short of the requisite number. Since both major parties felt they could win both seats (a more sound judgment in Labor’s case, at least at the time), the second seat was essentially legislated back into existence. This has left the two Northern Territory electorates with by far the lowest enrolments in the country: at the time of the 2010 election, Solomon had 59,879 enrolled voters and Lingiari 61,126, compared with a national average of around 94,000.

The Northern Territory gained its first member of federal parliament in 1922, but the member did not get full voting rights until 1968. Perhaps not coincidentally, the Northern Territory electorate had recently fallen to Sam Calder of the Country Party after a long period in Labor hands. With Calder’s retirement in 1980, the seat transferred to the Country Liberal Party, which had been established as a local alliance of Liberals and Nationals to contest elections in the newly established Northern Territory parliament. Labor gained the seat with the election of the Hawke government in 1983, defeating CLP member Grant Tambling (who returned as a Senator four years later). It subsequently changed hands with great frequency: future Chief Minister Paul Everingham recovered the seat for the CLP in 1984, Warren Snowdon won it back for Labor in 1987, Nick Dondas held it for the CLP for one term from 1996, and Snowdon recovered it in 1998.

Going into the 2001 election, the new seat of Solomon had a notional CLP margin of 2.3% while Lingiari had a notional Labor margin of 3.7%. Warren Snowdon naturally opted for the safer option of Lingiari, and Solomon emerged as an extremely tight contest between Labor’s Laurene Hull and David Tollner of the CLP. Tollner suffered a 2.2% swing against the national trend, but was able to hang on by 88 votes. The Northern Territory recorded only a modest swing to Labor at the 2007 election, but it proved just sufficient to deliver them their first victory in Solomon, with former football coach Damien Hale prevailing by 196 votes. The defeated Tollner returned to politics after winning the seat of Fong Lim in the Northern Territory parliament at the 2008 election, and has been health, housing and alcohol rehabilitation minister since the CLP’s election win in August 2012. Hale meanwhile enjoyed a short tenure as member, suffering a 1.9% swing in 2010 and what by the electorate’s historical standards was a relatvely large 1.8% defeat. The seat has since been held for the CLP by Natasha Griggs, who had previously been the deputy mayor of Palmerston.

Solomon’s distinguishing demographic characteristics are a high proportion of indigenous persons (10.3% in the 2006 census compared to a national figure of 2.3%) and a low number of persons aged over 65 (5.3% against 13.3%). Darwin is divided between newer Labor-leaning suburbs in the north, including Nightcliff, Casuarina, Jingili and Sanderson, and the town centre and its surrounds south of the airport, an area marked by higher incomes, fewer families and greater support for the CLP. Stronger still for the CLP is Palmerston, a satellite town established 20 kilometres south-east of Darwin in the 1980s that accounts for just over a quarter of the electorate’s voters: it is less multicultural than Darwin and has a high proportion of mortgage-paying young families.

Labor’s preselected candidate for the coming election is Luke Gosling, a staffer to Senator Trish Crossin and volunteer operations manager of a charity he co-founded which works in East Timor. Griggs meanwhile faces a preselection challenge from Peter Bourke, a doctor at Royal Darwin Hospital.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

549 comments on “Seat of the week: Solomon”

Comments Page 5 of 11
1 4 5 6 11
  1. [Peter Brent ‏@mumbletwits
    After this year’s election drubbing, ALP NSW Right will boast how they (1) saved western Sydney and (2) put the Greens in their place.]

    Mumble is such a cheerful soul, isn’t he.

  2. [Toxic air has blocked out the sun, reduced visibility to 200 metres and left 20 million people choking in the Chinese capital.

    Monitors at the United States Embassy in Beijing’s inner east said the concentration of airborne PM 2.5 particulates reached 845 micrograms per cubic meter late on Saturday afternoon, before falling below 700 after midnight.

    These particles, 2.5 microns in diameter or smaller, are considered the most harmful to health because they can penetrate easily into human tissue.

    The peak reading is roughly 35 times higher than guidelines issued by the World Health Organisation.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/beijings-crazy-air-day-20130113-2cn72.html#ixzz2HnnkaHo9

  3. lizzie
    Posted Sunday, January 13, 2013 at 9:13 am | Permalink

    Peter Brent ‏@mumbletwits
    After this year’s election drubbing, ALP NSW Right will boast how they (1) saved western Sydney and (2) put the Greens in their place.

    Mumble is such a cheerful soul, isn’t he.

    ————————————————-

    I think mumble like alot of news ltd journalist, get the feeling they are going to be in for a surprised,

    The surprise is their nightmare

    The Gillard government getting re-elected with a majority

  4. Morning Bludgers – a refreshing cool breeze here after 41C yesterday and 31.9 at 9pm – not something we usually have here.

    [Coulston was a classic as a ‘rorter’.

    All the equipment in his electoral office was rented: From his family company …]

    CTar1 Coulston got up my nose with his rorts and total arrogance about it. I’m all for pollies being barred from paying any allowances to family members, e.g. Turnbull renting his Canberra lodgings from his wife.

  5. Morning All

    Some more fallout form the disgraceful move of single parent pensioners to Newstart – how stupid is it to design a change that punishes those doing some work the hardest (insert angry face here)

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/single-parents-to-lose-pension-cards-20130112-2cmg1.html

    The worst part of it is that it will be the children that cop the fallout 🙁

    As has been pointed out here before, Slipper becoming speaker allowed Labor to water down the promise on pokies – if that didn’t happen they wouldn’t even be in the hunt at this election imo

  6. womble

    despite what you think slipper has been found in no wrong doing since he become an indpendent

    yet all his alleged wrong doings has been when he was an lnp/lib member
    that tells you something about the culture of the libs/lnp

    The only ones who can be blame if for the libs/lnp keeping slipper in parliament if he was that bad

  7. BH 206 Hopefully the change will arrive here just after midday, certainly not yet, although we are supposed to get to 36c today. Was hot out walking but a nice coffee in the cafe which was so cool was lovely 🙂

  8. womble@208


    As has been pointed out here before, Slipper becoming speaker allowed Labor to water down the promise on pokies – if that didn’t happen they wouldn’t even be in the hunt at this election imo

    Pointed out maybe, but not substantiated. Wilkie’s proposals didn’t have cross-bench support and, worse, Wilkie was disinclined to go and canvass it. He decided that was the job of the ALP. He decided his bit of paper from 2010 was all he needed, and the ALP could fight his battle for him.

    The choice the ALP had – as has also been pointed out before – was putting Wilkie’s legislation to the lower house and seeing it defeated, or coming up with a policy that would be supported.

    The ALP did the practical thing – not just for them but for action on problem gambling. Practical is not always best, but best is not always possible.

  9. womble

    1. It’s standard practice, when you transition from one kind of Centrelink payment to another, to be asked to destroy your old card.

    It doesn’t mean you don’t get a benefits card, it just means that you get a different one.

    If they’re on Newstart, they’ll get a benefits card.

    2. What this points to, however, is that single parents will retain priviledges not available to other Newstart recipients – so they’re going to be financially better off than the average person on the dole (including those with families).

    (I’m particularly annoyed about the study allowance – to get out of my own particular poverty trap, I need to access further education. But I can’t, because to do so would mean I became a student, and would have to go off Newstart. Single parents retain that benefit – good on them, but it would be great if it could be extended to all those on Newstart).

    3. Note, also, that the article makes it clear that, under the old system, single parents could receive the pension when their income was far in excess of that allowed to a similar person (with a family) on Newstart.

  10. Isn’t it amazing I put a comment on the DT article about Julia Gillard wonder why it wasn’t published :devil: I was very polite too and just said “after I watched TA stunts and no policies, had just about decided to vote LNP”

  11. mari – Just as I made a nice hot cuppa (instead of drinking iced tea) the breeze dropped and we’re now a bit muggy – phew!

    This is a good story. Perseverance pays in this harsh country. We need to work harder on getting rid of feral animals in this area.

    [In 2002, the property was, in parts, a red dust bowl where nothing held the terracotta earth down. The saltbush and bluebush were patchy. Many of the belah and Murray pines were gone. Foxes and feral cats had wiped out native marsupials. Sheep had trampled the property to the brink.

    But 10 years later – in a testament to the bush’s resilience and the hard work of volunteers and managers – Neds is staging a remarkable and beautiful recovery. Led by property manager Peter Barnes and his wife Colleen (with help from Blue), the effort to revive Neds has involved the destruction of 10,200 rabbit warrens, the annual culling of 30 wild pigs, 200 feral cats and 40 hares, and the planting of 60,000 trees. Seventy kilometres of fences have been torn down. But 42 kilometres have gone up to help native plants regenerate.]
    http://m.theage.com.au/national/in-a-small-corner-of-the-state-the-bush-returns-to-life-20130112-2cmrr.html

  12. Mari

    I put a sensible comment on the Daily TelaLie article as well. Sadly, it apparently did not get through their censors, inlike the 16 anti-Gillard gems they have published (some of which are the dopiest, out-of-context posts imaginable)

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/prime-minister-julia-gillard-shares-her-plan-to-win-back-voters/comments-fndo28a5-1226552687087

    Why doesn’t all reading this have a go at getting a pro-Gillard comment published by #newscorpse? We know they are biased, but today’s evidence is confirmation.

  13. [lizzie
    Posted Sunday, January 13, 2013 at 10:22 am | PERMALINK
    mari

    I did wonder where you were going with that!]
    I just missed correcting it as saw the “error” just as I hit post. Saw 16 comments guess which all against Julia what a surprise, Menzies House mustn’t be working today??? You would think for balance they would put in one comment supporting the PM, even mine???

  14. [sprocket_
    Posted Sunday, January 13, 2013 at 10:27 am | PERMALINK
    Mari

    I put a sensible comment on the Daily TelaLie article as well. Sadly, it apparently did not get through their censors, inlike the 16 anti-Gillard gems they have published (some of which are the dopiest, out-of-context posts imaginable)

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/prime-minister-julia-gillard-shares-her-plan-to-win-back-voters/comments-fndo28a5-1226552687087

    Why doesn’t all reading this have a go at getting a pro-Gillard comment published by #newscorpse? We know they are biased, but today’s evidence is confirmation.]

    Yes please PBers submit comments and prove the bias, NOT balance. Then hit Twitter afterwards, please let sprocket and or me know so we can tweet a couple of comments about the even handed and balanced DT

  15. mari

    You can only look for ‘balance’ from Our ABC 😆
    As an example, one old person who says summer is always hot versus Karoly on AGW.

  16. [I think mumble like alot of news ltd journalist, get the feeling they are going to be in for a surprised, ]

    I know mumble has his stuff on NEWS and presumably is paid, but I don’t think he is a journalist at all. I, like many no doubt, remember poll bludger and mumble before they fell under the crikey and NEWS banners respectively. I don’t always think mumble is right and his view on Swan I find particularly difficult to agree with, but he is an excellent writer and i respect his views greatly. He may well be wrong but I am sure writing him off as a NEWS hack does the poster more credibility damage than it does him.

  17. [lizzie
    Posted Sunday, January 13, 2013 at 10:32 am | PERMALINK
    mari

    You can only look for ‘balance’ from Our ABC
    As an example, one old person who says summer is always hot versus Karoly on AGW.]

    True Lizzie and worst really the ABC as they are supposed to be balanced. Shame really no not shame disgusting as far as I am concerned

  18. The front page of the Sunday Terrorgraph: PM “Now I’m ready for a fight”

    Neither in her interview reported on P9 nor in her double page statement to us (in the Agenda section) do I see any such words or anything faintly resembling such words.

    Is it that I just can’t see for looking, or is the front page an editorial message that the PM is spoiling for aggro, and that Abbott is not the only pug?

  19. The front page of the Sunday Terrorgraph: PM “Now I’m ready for a fight”

    Neither in her interview reported on P9 nor in her double page statement to us (in the Agenda section) do I see any such words or anything faintly resembling such words.

    Is it that I just can’t see for looking, or is the front page an editorial message that the PM is spoiling for aggro, and that Abbott is not the only pug?

  20. Morning all.

    I agree with WWP about Mumble. I don’t think his views are anything to do with him being published by the OO as much as they are somewhat stuck in the 2010 election campaign.

  21. Light precipitation here in Adelaide which is good for a change.

    Having a lively discussion with someone on the social reforms of the Howard government as opposed to the Gillard government. Did Howard have any major social reform other than the buckets of handouts?

  22. [Kirky
    Posted Sunday, January 13, 2013 at 10:37 am | PERMALINK
    Light precipitation here in Adelaide which is good for a change.

    Having a lively discussion with someone on the social reforms of the Howard government as opposed to the Gillard government. Did Howard have any major social reform other than the buckets of handouts?]

    Off hand no, he did do the gun control for which I applauded him plus GST on Costello’s insistence. But nothing else I can recall

  23. mari@224


    sprocket_
    Posted Sunday, January 13, 2013 at 10:27 am | PERMALINK
    Mari

    I put a sensible comment on the Daily TelaLie article as well. Sadly, it apparently did not get through their censors, inlike the 16 anti-Gillard gems they have published (some of which are the dopiest, out-of-context posts imaginable)

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/prime-minister-julia-gillard-shares-her-plan-to-win-back-voters/comments-fndo28a5-1226552687087

    Why doesn’t all reading this have a go at getting a pro-Gillard comment published by #newscorpse? We know they are biased, but today’s evidence is confirmation.


    Yes please PBers submit comments and prove the bias, NOT balance. Then hit Twitter afterwards, please let sprocket and or me know so we can tweet a couple of comments about the even handed and balanced DT

    Ha! just posted a positive comment there, and when I pressed “submit”, up came this message:

    [ Feedback will be rejected if it does not add to a debate, or is a purely personal attack, or is offensive, repetitious, illegal or meaningless, or contains clear errors of fact. ]

    And yet of the 16 comments allowed through so far, nearly all of them, are clearly personal attacks, offensive and repetitive! The only poitive thing you can say about them is that they contain no errors of fact – because they contain no facts!

  24. Hi all,

    Happy New Year and stay safe!

    Old campaigners lead the charge for GetUp!

    NEARLY four in 10 members of political activist group GetUp! are older than 56 and less than 7 per cent are younger than 25, debunking the myth it is a youth group.

    A survey of more than 25,000 of GetUp!’s members, seen by Fairfax Media, found women make up 56 per cent of the membership, with the largest age bracket being 56 to 65.

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/old-campaigners-lead-the-charge-for-getup-20130112-2cmo3.html

  25. Player One
    That is normal with all the papers, but still don’t think there is much chance of it being published. Still 16 comments only, DT must really be desperate for more anti PM comments by now ?

  26. Morning all. It is mercifully raining in Adelaide this morning and I slept in. I wonder how many others have felt a bit sleep deprived in the last few weeks, unable to stay asleep in sweltering hot nights?

    This brings me to an interesting article I found measuring public reactions to climate change. It seems recent experiences, as opposed to scientific prediction, may be far more effective in convincing doubters than reports and models:
    {Scepticism about climate change in Australia may be something else that will melt during the nation’s great heatwave.
    ”There’s a powerful climate change signal in extreme weather events in Australia,” said Joseph Reser, an adjunct professor at Griffith University’s school of applied psychology. ”The current heatwave is outside people’s experience.”

    Just 4.2 per cent of the survey’s 4347 respondents selected the option ”there is no such thing as climate change” and 8.5 per cent could be considered strong sceptics, Professor Reser said.
    He said a ”remarkable” finding was 45 per cent of respondents reported direct personal experience of climate change. By contrast, the ratio in the US was about a quarter, he said.
    That experience included floods (29 per cent), bushfires (23 per cent) and cyclones (18 per cent).
    Perceived climate-change experiences varied according to voting intentions. Some 75.7 per cent of Green voters and 60.3 per cent of Labor selected the ”We are already feeling the effects” option. Among National Party supporters, 40.5 per cent picked the option but just 32.7 per cent of Liberal voters did.
    Results of a test about climate change also saw divergent results.
    ”Those who voted Green or Labor were simply more objectively knowledgeable about the phenomenon and the issue,” he said. ”Our female respondents were generally more knowledgeable, more concerned.”]
    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/climatechange-denial-feels-the-heat-20130112-2cmhu.html#ixzz2Ho8jxw1a
    Personal experience is a really lousy way to make scientific judgements. Your perception may not be reliable, and your experiences are not universal. Still that is how a lot of people form their attitudes. So a lot of people are changing their attitudes to climate change, after the Qld floods and this years bushfires. Note that even half of the “strong skeptics” (8.5%) must be among those saying that climate change is real (95.8%).

    Politically, this will make life more difficult for climate change skeptics. Given the lack of any economic harm from the carbon tax, it would be a good time to ask Tony Abbott and others if they still thought climate change was crap, or had they been wrong. Other current policy moves like various State Liberal premiers cutting rail funding for more freeways, can be questioned in this light.

  27. mari@236


    Player One
    That is normal with all the papers, but still don’t think there is much chance of it being published. Still 16 comments only, DT must really be desperate for more anti PM comments by now ?

    21 comments now – still all negative. I particularly liked this one:

    [ If national security is such a top priority with her, how come the illegal boat people are still flooding in? ]

    Posted by “Carlingford Old Girl” LOL! Man the borders of Carlingford! – we’re being invaded!

  28. [People dropping items of rubbish deemed dangerous such as lit cigarettes will face hefty fines of up to $5000 from today under new anti-littering rules introduced by the State Government.

    Amid WA’s continued poor performance with littering compared with other States, the Government has significantly increased the penalties applying to people caught dumping rubbish and waste illegally.]

    I’m still amazed to see people throwing lit cigarette butts out of their cars in high fire danger times. Hopefully this will address that.
    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/wa/15816138/litterbugs-face-heavier-fines/

  29. Anyone know who did the cartoom described here

    [Has Rupert Murdoch turned into a climate change sceptic?
    (And, if so, his late mother wouldn’t be very pleased)

    A cartoonist once pictured Dame Elisabeth looking over Rupert’s shoulder as he read an attack on Australia’s carbon emissions tax in one of his own papers, and asking her son: “Do you still read that rag?”]
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/media/press/has-rupert-murdoch-turned-into-a-climate-change-sceptic-8448688.html

  30. [davidwh
    Posted Sunday, January 13, 2013 at 10:49 am | PERMALINK
    Mari as I was reading post 217 the Earth shook and time seemed to stop for a brief time.]

    Did almost for me too when I realised the error on PB only fortunately, would have been published I guess if I had made the same mistake on DT, wouldn’t you think???

  31. Re BH post @ 218 Mari.

    I am pretty sure it was an “Australia Story” program about revegitating a large track of outback property.

    The young couple that took over destocked the property and are now attempting to make a living out of outback tourism.

    It was a good show.

  32. mari@242


    Player One 239
    Yup right up there in the “Bible Belt” got to protect us against any intruders

    42 comments now. All still negative. Many of them read like they have all been posted by the same person – LNP apparatchicks feverishly pounding their keyboards in Menzies House, I suppose.

    Just for fun, I posted a negative comment as well. I’ll let you know if that one turns up!

  33. Most of those comments at the DT are anachronistic – the lie, carbon tax, school halls, Election Now! etc.

    They relate to matters from years ago.

    It’s pretty plain that the Coalition thinks it has done all the work necessary to win the election, put all the issues in place, and is now just regurgitating stuff that admittedly used to work well, but by now has lost a lot of its edge.

    The “lie” was in 2010!

    I’m surprised there was no reference to Emmo’s “No Whyalla Wipeout” song and dance.

    As long as they continue to concentrate on this tabloid, retail stuff, patting themselves on the back for the Coalition doing well in the polls to date, Labor has a good chance of improving its position.

  34. wewantpaul
    Mumble is paid by newsltd , yes you may have different opinions on him

    But lets face it he does the news ltd propaganda

    and his credibility out of the window

    im sorry to say

Comments Page 5 of 11
1 4 5 6 11

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *