Consisting of Darwin and its satellite town of Palmerston, the electorate of Solomon was created when the Northern Territory was divided into two electorates at the 2001 election. This appeared set to be reversed at the 2004 election, when the Northern Territory was found to be 295 residents short of the requisite number. Since both major parties felt they could win both seats (a more sound judgment in Labor’s case, at least at the time), the second seat was essentially legislated back into existence. This has left the two Northern Territory electorates with by far the lowest enrolments in the country: at the time of the 2010 election, Solomon had 59,879 enrolled voters and Lingiari 61,126, compared with a national average of around 94,000.
The Northern Territory gained its first member of federal parliament in 1922, but the member did not get full voting rights until 1968. Perhaps not coincidentally, the Northern Territory electorate had recently fallen to Sam Calder of the Country Party after a long period in Labor hands. With Calder’s retirement in 1980, the seat transferred to the Country Liberal Party, which had been established as a local alliance of Liberals and Nationals to contest elections in the newly established Northern Territory parliament. Labor gained the seat with the election of the Hawke government in 1983, defeating CLP member Grant Tambling (who returned as a Senator four years later). It subsequently changed hands with great frequency: future Chief Minister Paul Everingham recovered the seat for the CLP in 1984, Warren Snowdon won it back for Labor in 1987, Nick Dondas held it for the CLP for one term from 1996, and Snowdon recovered it in 1998.
Going into the 2001 election, the new seat of Solomon had a notional CLP margin of 2.3% while Lingiari had a notional Labor margin of 3.7%. Warren Snowdon naturally opted for the safer option of Lingiari, and Solomon emerged as an extremely tight contest between Labor’s Laurene Hull and David Tollner of the CLP. Tollner suffered a 2.2% swing against the national trend, but was able to hang on by 88 votes. The Northern Territory recorded only a modest swing to Labor at the 2007 election, but it proved just sufficient to deliver them their first victory in Solomon, with former football coach Damien Hale prevailing by 196 votes. The defeated Tollner returned to politics after winning the seat of Fong Lim in the Northern Territory parliament at the 2008 election, and has been health, housing and alcohol rehabilitation minister since the CLP’s election win in August 2012. Hale meanwhile enjoyed a short tenure as member, suffering a 1.9% swing in 2010 and what by the electorate’s historical standards was a relatvely large 1.8% defeat. The seat has since been held for the CLP by Natasha Griggs, who had previously been the deputy mayor of Palmerston.
Solomon’s distinguishing demographic characteristics are a high proportion of indigenous persons (10.3% in the 2006 census compared to a national figure of 2.3%) and a low number of persons aged over 65 (5.3% against 13.3%). Darwin is divided between newer Labor-leaning suburbs in the north, including Nightcliff, Casuarina, Jingili and Sanderson, and the town centre and its surrounds south of the airport, an area marked by higher incomes, fewer families and greater support for the CLP. Stronger still for the CLP is Palmerston, a satellite town established 20 kilometres south-east of Darwin in the 1980s that accounts for just over a quarter of the electorate’s voters: it is less multicultural than Darwin and has a high proportion of mortgage-paying young families.
Labor’s preselected candidate for the coming election is Luke Gosling, a staffer to Senator Trish Crossin and volunteer operations manager of a charity he co-founded which works in East Timor. Griggs meanwhile faces a preselection challenge from Peter Bourke, a doctor at Royal Darwin Hospital.
Confessions, this is all I can see:
[Make no mistake, the Libs are in good shape. Published opinion polls have the Government well ahead and Colin Barnett remains personally ascendant as Premier in a way that Alan Carpenter and Geoff Gallop were not as they sought re-election …
As it stands, the Liberals hold 24 seats and the Nationals five and they have kept their minority government together with the assistance of independents Liz Constable in Churchlands, Janet Woollard in Alfred Cove and John Bowler in Kalgoorlie — all in seats that will probably fall to Liberals or Nationals at the election.
Labor has 26 seats but doesn’t have to do too much to get to 28.
The nearly unanimous opinion is that Adele Carles, who unlike her shock 2009 by-election win as a Green will have a Liberal candidate to contend with this time, will lose Fremantle to Labor’s unionist candidate Simone McGurk.
And Liberal strategists are pessimistic about incumbent Ian Britza’s chances in Morley, a seat he won in unusual circumstances in 2008 when he benefited from preferences from the huge personal following of exiled former Labor minister John D’Orazio.
As a starting point for a seemingly dominant Government, it’s a pretty skinny margin for error …
Said another, relaying the of an apolitical stakeholder: “You guys are going to romp it in.”
That was exactly the sentiment revealed in July, the last time Westpoll asked voters who they thought would win the election as opposed to who they would vote for.
Expectations of a Liberal- National victory outstripped that of a Labor win more than 2-to-1 and it would be no surprise if that expectation has strengthened in the interim.
A highly unscientific sampling of Twitter yesterday was nonetheless useful for the commentary as much as the 13-to-1 predication of Liberal victory. Many see a landslide as imminent.]
On the subject of Cyclone Narelle, it looks like the WA coast will miss the worst of it, as it is forecast to blow southwest out to sea and dissipate.
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60281.shtml
I heard that Narelle is mostly wind, but little rain, so that will be unfortunate. Strong cyclones off North West WA can be beneficial for the rest of the country if they’re wet.
Thanks Gecko
“Confessions: permanently banning someone IMHO is OTT. Freedom of speech and all that….”
Not commenting on specific cases, but on the general principle, free speech means you get to post as you like on your own site – not on someone else’s.
It is entirely consistent with free speech for person A to ban person B from commenting on person A’s site at all, even before person B has ever done anything wrong. After all there is nothing to stop person B saying their bit on their own site.
I’ve permanently banned a few people from a site I moderate, but only after severe and constant breaches of very clearly stated rules. For instance one of them repeatedly signed up new accounts while serving temporary suspensions to try to get around the bans.
scorpio
[My new Year’s wish is for people to be a bit more tolerant of other’s opinions and to not be as quick to condemn or critisise others here in such personal ways that they feel obliged to retaliate.
That provides no winners, just a bunch of people who are acting in a childish and unseemly fashion which does nobody any credit.]
Absolutely agree!
No one has a franchise on being right all of the time.
Good grace and tolerance are virtues to be appreciated.
Scops,
Thanks for the story.
Whilst I post short comments I fully agree with your philosophy.
To many people get too angry. We have a common goal.
That is to see OZ as a forward and growing country with out the rabbit in charge
I also made a NY Resolution….a rare thing for me…not so much a wish as a code….
“To lead a more daring life!”
I am hoping I can live up to this…so far, so good…. 🙂
It’s William’s blog.
If he wanted to permanently ban something, then it would be entirely up to him.
If people don’t like that, they can start their own blog.
paddy2,
[ We have a common goal.
That is to see OZ as a forward and growing country with out the rabbit in charge ]
I’ve got a sneaking suspicion that rabbits were introduced to here from England, weren’t they?
If so, then somebody should be held to account for all the damage they cause here. Especially from one in particular! 😉
William:
Thats different from the online edition from this morning which mentioned a state Newspoll from Oct and a benefit to Labor this time around.
zoomster,
[ It’s William’s blog.
If he wanted to permanently ban something, then it would be entirely up to him.
If people don’t like that, they can start their own blog. ]
Blinmey Zoomster, don’t tempt him. I only just got back on board on probation! 😉
Besides that, I haven’t the IT skills to run a blog. I’d end up the only person commenting there anyway! 😉
I hope William reconsiders Bemused red card and that people restrain themselves from baiting the poor beggar to see how quickly he gets banned again.
Please!
Scorpio,
I fully agree.
I found out last week that a mob of rabbits have just inhabitated one of my river reconstruction sites near Gatton.
Sadly they will have to be removed prior to the election.
scorps
sorry, but I disagree with your premise.
bemused wasn’t provoked. He made a quite unwarranted attack on someone who wasn’t even commenting on this blog.
What then happened was that a few people reminded him of the consequences of that and – instead of saying ‘whoops, thanks for the reminder’ – he got all smart arsey with them.
I don’t want to get further involved in this discussion, but I also don’t like seeing history being rewritten.
Hey Wiliam and Pber’s
I havent Boerwar for some time. Are he and his mate Bluey all well?
To all those who have been mentioning Mal Colston as bad, do you think he was better or worse than Albert Field who beat him for the Senate Casual vacancy in 1975?
paddy
a couple of other posters say he’s overseas.
When it comes to the issue of banning people I think it’s just like it is in pubs – it’s up the publican. If I or anyone else doesn’t like it we can always go somewhere else. I have little respect for people who, just because they consider themselves regulars, start telling the publican who should be allowed to drink there.
Tom
we could do a whole series on that sort of thing — “Was Stalin a better dinner companion than Hitler? Discuss.”
Scorpio, the other day you left a comment which I’m reasonably sure was the single most stupid thing that anyone has ever said here, out of about 1.5 million contenders, and which I was mercifully able to nip in the bud before more than a handful of people saw it. Since there would have to be something very seriously wrong with me were I to pay attention at all to your idiot opinions, I would be very grateful if you kept them to yourself.
Von Kirksdale 152
Re Cyclone
_____________
Out best chance re rain over the continent is from a
cyclone that sends rain into the interiot
A new “low” is developing over the sea ner Darwin which may be a cyclone by Tuesday
Narella is sending lots of cloud and some rain to the east
Most of Victoria has been under a screen of such cloud today but little rain in sight …In Melbourne the situation is very desperate after 3 rainless months
Thanks Zoomster
zoomster,
[ scorps
sorry, but I disagree with your premise.
bemused wasn’t provoked. He made a quite unwarranted attack on someone who wasn’t even commenting on this blog. ]
I have no intention of getting into a debate on the rights or wrongs of Bemused suspension or challenging William’s right to do so.
I will however just say that I have read carefully all the comments leading up to that suspension and the particular poster was certainly baited and goaded to a considerable degree by people who should know better.
I’m sure they are and I hope that they feel at least some regret for that.
I copped some unprovoked and somewhat unfair treatment myself so I know how he would be feeling and why he reacted. Things like this don’t usually occur of their own volition.
No more from me. Still think Confessions is right. Blogging is not really right for me. I got no blooming idea what is though! 😉
William Bowe,
[ Scorpio, the other day you left a comment which I’m reasonably sure was the single most stupid thing that anyone has ever said here, out of about 1.5 million contenders, and which I was mercifully able to nip in the bud before more than a handful of people saw it. Since there would have to be something very seriously wrong with me were I to pay attention at all to your idiot opinions, I would be very grateful if you kept them to yourself. ]
Thanks for the compliment. If all my comments are those traditionally expected from somebody with a mental condition, then you would probably be well advised to delete them all before they lower the standard of your worthy blog.
I apologise to you and everyone here for being a prat but I am far from being alone in that respect. If I am as bas as you say, then why in the blazes did you lift that ban?
[To all those who have been mentioning Mal Colston as bad, do you think he was better or worse than Albert Field who beat him for the Senate Casual vacancy in 1975?]
He was a loyal Labor Senator until he got lazy and corrupt, which was why too many people in the Qld ALP were willing to turn a blind eye to his rorting of his entitlements. That’s an entirely different matter to Bjelke-Petersen’s blatant theft of a Labor Senate seat in 1975 when Senator Milliner died.
Re the American people and a deep distaste for war
___________________________
Pat Buchanan and his AMCON magazine site represent a substantial section of Republican OPINION….AS AGAINST THE WARMONGERS OF THE NEO-CONS,WITH MEN LIKE MCCAIN WHO HAS WANTED TO BOMB IRAN FOR SOME YEARS NOW…AND KRISTOL AND THE JEWISH LOBBY WHO THINK THAT ANY TALKS WITH IRAN OR HAMAS ARE NOT POSSIBLE
Buchanan says that the Hagel era must be one in which talks not war is the basis of US policy in the M East.
He claims there is now a deep distaste in any more”imperial” wars and the American people want an end to foreign wars
http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/hagels-critics-are-out-of-the-mainstream/
Zoomster: “It’s William’s blog.
If he wanted to permanently ban something, then it would be entirely up to him.
If people don’t like that, they can start their own blog.”
Well yes and no. William has the property rights, so he can do what he wishes on this blog, but that doesn’t necessarily make his actions defensible in a moral sense.
In general I think he exercises exceedingly good judgement and decency.
You were definitely right Confessions.
Night All.
[I will however just say that I have read carefully all the comments leading up to that suspension and the particular poster was certainly baited and goaded to a considerable degree by people who should know better.]
Utterly wrong, and demonstrative of the folly of you offering your opinion, because you simply haven’t the faintest idea what’s going on. The comment which got Bemused banned involved ignoring my repeated instruction not to say a particular thing, and to the extent that it was in any way in response to another commenter, he was supporting what they were saying.
Von Kirksdale re new cyclone
_____________________
Note the intense “low” now over Darwin and moving out the sea for possible cyclonic formationhttp://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR632.loop.shtml
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR632.loop.shtml
re Darwin and new cyclone
“In general I think he exercises exceedingly good judgement and decency.”
And the very occasional moment of pique. But then we are all human. As Orwell said, ‘Most people want to be good, but not too good, and not all of the time”.
Such is the moderators lot.
confessions and Scorpio true so hot here almost unheard of right on the coast one news said 39c my google said 40c and still 32c according to google and all is quiet now next door , so all well 😉
William Bowe,
Would you mind checking your e-mails please.
[Pat Buchanan and his AMCON magazine site represent a substantial section of Republican OPINION]
They do not. Buchanan is a nutty old racist and anti-Semitic Holocaust denier, who approves of Breivik the Norwegian mass-murdering fascist. You’ll need to find someone a bit more respectable. Have you tried Lyndon LaRouche?
mari:
Do you have aircon? Sounds like you might need it where you are.
40 degrees is horrendous
Re Bushanan
________
As a regular reader of AMCON I have never seen Buchanan to be a holocaust denier or make anti-semitic statements. or have other writers in his journal.done so ….or are critics of Israel seen automatically as anti-semitic.?.
.a false claim made against Hagel of course by the despicable gang around Kristol and his magazine
Mo don’t like aircon the ovrthead fan is keeping me pretty cool, normally the NE winds comes in but tonight dead calm, Wouldn’t like to be down in the caravan park, would be so hot. Anyway night night try and go to sleep
Buchanan is basically anti-Semitic and borders on Holocaust denial, as well as being a complete douchebag.
http://thinkprogress.org/media/2012/02/17/427875/why-msnbc-dumped-pat-buchanan-his-10-most-outrageous-statements/?mobile=nc
confessions@107
Pantyhose is OK unless worn over the head.
Latest info (midnight)
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/prime-minister-julia-gillard-say-shes-ready-for-the-fight-in-election-year/story-e6frf7jo-1226552658224
He started his career as Richard Nixon’s speechwriter, but has managed to go downhill from there, which is quite an achievement.
Mr Buchanan certainly is a spectacular specimen, based on those ten highlights.
Bushfire Bill@65
maybe that is the only way tolerate the Liberal Party?
Possibly I was a fraction too harsh in my pronouncements on Feeney and Scorpio this evening. On the other hand, bollocks to them. Do these people really think that a moderator should just look the other way when a commenter repeatedly ignores basic instructions which have been directed to them on multiple occasions? My best guess is that their thought processes don’t run that deep – that the path to virtue consists merely of defending those who share their political enthusiasm (Ruddism in this case) and attacking those who don’t.
On which note, I am not going to allow any further discussion regarding the banned commenter or how I’ve chosen to deal with him. Attacks on him are unfair because he can’t snipe back. Defences of him are much worse, because they undermine my authority in trying to keep order here, and fortify the commenter in the conviction that his behaviour is perfectly reasonable, and that he will be well within his rights to resume it when the ban is lifted.
fair enough it is your blog William
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. As usual Sunday defeats me so I’ll just have a look at the Land of the Free –
Some of the idiot Repugs are STILL at it on “legitimate rape” and the like.
http://americablog.com/2013/01/gingrey-rape-agree-akin.html
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/01/12/1178271/-This-week-in-the-War-on-Women-Republicans-still-trying-to-get-all-up-in-our-vaginas
Bad loser Bill O’Reilly.
http://crooksandliars.com/john-amato/bill-oreilly-really-wanted-call-obama-u
Now there is a conspiracy theory on the Sandy Hook shootings.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/01/12/video-anderson-cooper-tackles-sickening-ignorant-newtown-conspiracy-theories/
Some more gun cartoons.
The ashby scandal , has not turn out what the libs/lnp wanted
All what Ashby has done is exposed the libs/lnp and continued to link slipper with them
1- Slipper during this Ashby affair
has stated
He was Abbott’s friend
Abbott was his best man at his wedding
Slipper’s vote was the vote which gave Abbott the leadership
Abbott ddid not want slipper out of the libs/lnp, he offered slipper another seat
and after the judgement
The libs/lnp been involved in a conspiracy agaisnt slipper
The cabcharges – exposed the libs/lnp again they happen during the 2010 election year , while slipper was an lib/lnp member
There has been no link to the labor party what so ever in this ordeal
Coulston was a classic as a ‘rorter’.
All the equipment in his electoral office was rented: From his family company …
OMG, PB has become a refuge for the grumpy old men & women