Morgan has published results from a phone poll of 523 respondents conducted between Tuesday and Thursday, which have Labor on 36.5% of the primary vote, the Coalition on 44.5% and the Greens on 8.5%. Morgan’s headline two-party result is 51-49, but this comes from the dubious respondent-allocated preferences measure: the more reliable measure using preferences from the previous election has the Coalition’s lead at 52.5-47.5. This being a phone poll, it should not have the Labor bias associated with Morgan’s face-to-face polling. It also reverses the consistent trend of the face-to-face series in giving Labor the better result on respondent-allocated preferences (I have consistently had grave doubts about the face-to-face polling on this score). However, the poll shows no gap in voting intention between men and women, which perhaps illustrates the difficulties you can get with small samples. The margin of error on the poll is about 4.3%.
Morgan has also taken on the tricky job of framing questions appropriate to the knotty AWU matter. The most useful of these asks if respondents approve or disapprove of Gillard’s response, coming in at 37% and 28% respectively. A question on whether the Prime Minister should resign if “scandal allegations are true” has 43% saying she should against 27% saying she shouldn’t, but this rather overlooks the enormous range of the allegations that might be levelled (had they started a few days later they could simply have asked if respondents agreed with Christopher Pyne). Another question asks whether Gillard “was aware that the AWU ‘slush-fund’ was illegal when she resigned from Slater & Gordon in 1995”, which seems simplistic at best. Thirty-three per cent answered in the affirmative (including 10% of Labor voters and 20% of a tiny sample of Greens voters) against 26% negative, 17% couldn’t say and 24% not aware of the scandal.
There is also an entertaining plethora of questions on preferred party leaders, the chief head-to-head scorelines being Gillard 49 Abbott 36, Turnbull 59 Gillard 31, Gillard 46 Hockey 44, and Turnbull 54 Rudd 38. Not featured: Gillard versus Rudd or Abbott versus Turnbull.
Seat of the week: Perth
The electorate of Perth extends north-eastwards from the city centre to accommodate an area bounded to the south by the Swan River, extending from Mount Lawley and Maylands to Morley and Bassendean. An electorate bearing the name has existed since federation, with the entirety of the metropolitan area having been divided between it and Fremantle until the expansion of parliament in 1949. It then assumed more familiar dimensions, with Swan being drawn into the metropolitan area and Curtin created to accommodate the western suburbs.
Perth was held from its creation until 1922 by James Fowler, first as a Labor member and then as a Liberal and Nationalist following his defection in 1909. It thereafter remained in conservative hands until the Labor landslide of 1943, when it was won by Tom Burke (father of Brian). Burke held the seat until defeated in 1955 by Liberal candidate Fred Chaney Senior, whose son Fred Chaney Junior was a Fraser government minister, Senator and member for Pearce. Chaney was in turn unseated in 1969 by Joe Berinson, who became a junior minister in the Whitlam government and later a state Attorney-General. When the 1975 debacle cost Labor all its WA seats except for Fremantle, Berinson suffered a narrow defeat at the hands of Liberal candidate Ross McLean.
Redistributions in 1977 and 1990 respectively reoriented the seat westwards to the advantage of the Liberals and eastwards to the advantage of Labor. Australian hockey captain Ric Charlesworth was able to gain and hold the seat for Labor in the more difficult conditions after 1983, and Stephen Smith came to a seat with a solid Labor margin when he succeeded Charlesworth in 1993. It continued to trend in Labor’s favour thereafter, remarkably producing a slight positive swing amid the 1996 landslide, and surpassed Fremantle as Labor’s safest WA seat at the 2010 election. However, such has been the party’s progressive malaise in WA over the past decade that the margin has worn down to 5.9%.
Stephen Smith had been an adviser to Paul Keating and a state party secretary before entering parliament, emerging as a senior figure in the Right faction. He was elevated to the front bench after the 1996 defeat, and became Foreign Minister when the Rudd government came to power in 2007. He relinquished this role with displeasure when it was given to Kevin Rudd after the 2010 election, instead being assigned to defence. His desire to return to the foreign ministry was thwarted when Bob Carr was drafted after Kevin Rudd’s failed leadership challenge in February 2012. Smith also served as Trade Minister from Julia Gillard’s ascension to the prime ministership in June 2010 until the reshuffle which followed the subsequent election.
A Liberal preselection in June 2012 was won by Darryl Moore, a former mining engineer now involved in “investing in and managing the family’s commercial and industrial real estate portfolio”, ahead of Geoff Hourn, a former lieutenant-colonel in the Australian Intelligence Corps.
With the coverage of slatergate it is best to mention the honourable exceptions like Jon Faine.
The OM has truly been a pack of baying hounds rushing for the prey. Not a parliament of owls looking at the evidence to determine if proof exists for a conviction.
Confessions @75
What’s happening in Queensland under Newman is unprecedented in the state’s history and the union movement has it’s act together (especially the ones that aren’t affiliated with the ALP).
In hindsight, I didn’t appreciate just how much Newman could screw things up for the LNP in such a short period of time. He’s not like O’Farrell or Baillieu who have checks and balances on what they’re doing. This guy’s doing stuff on IR policy that hasn’t been seen in Queensland since federation. He’s a very special piece of work.
Everywhere else is pretty much the way it has been albeit the ALP are regaining some of their base as Abbott’s fear campaign becomes less powerful, but that was to be expected as the carbon tax is no longer has such polarising emotion attached to it. 48/52 2PP with an ALP primary vote below 38% (we don’t seem to be even at the point where the ALP realises it has to get over that mark in order to win) is still screwed
It is interesting how a few of the normal suspects jump on Spur212 because he attempts to make a rational assessment of Labor’s chances in the next election.
A few of you should ponder this:
[The problem with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt.
– Bertrand Russell]
Bemused @98
The problem in Queensland is whenever the federal ALP become visible over there (or the state ALP for that matter), it takes the focus away from Newman and the complete farce his government has become.
Agree on federal intervention in NSW. It should have been done a very long time ago
[A few of you should ponder this:
The problem with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt.
– Bertrand Russell]
Yes, Bemused, we noticed.
Psephos@100
Good post.
Now stand by to get the same shellacking that spur got for daring to be realistic. 👿
Bushfire Bill@105
And ‘Bullshit Bill’ you were one I had in mind.
Unlike ModLib, I don’t jump up and down here about how right I am about stuff.
However, I note that Queensland under Newman is going exactly the way I said it would – a leader who lacks experience in governance at this level, but who believes that he’s better than anyone else in the party (because his elevation to leader said that) and therefore won’t believe they have anything worthwhile to tell him, is bound to stuff up big time.
I’m shit at poll predictions, but I understand governance pretty well!
[And ‘Bullshit Bill’ you were one I had in mind.]
I’m glad of that. Shows I get under your skin.
Labor has to sort out the NSW branch. If Gillard supports Federal intervention, the voters of NSW will reward her, if only because by their votes they have been carrying out their own intervention.
Labor can win if they fix NSW. It is that simple.
Bemused
oh pulhease…..!! Spur was rambling for months that Qld would be a wipeout and Rudd was its only salvation.
psphos,
This far out from the election it appears that voting will be polarised. Safe seats will become safer for both sides and the decision on Government will be decided by the outer suburbs (not that this is anything knew).
Incumbancy of sitting members will assist.
I can forsee a situation where the Government cops a small swing and actually picks up seats in the key areas.
The high level of others that have shown up in polls since the last election is a significant change (4 to 8%). Pollsters use the preferences as at the last election.
I’m still wondering who they are and whether distributing these preferences in this way is the most reliable way to do so.
victoria@111
And the facts, courtesy of Newman, have changed. So he changed his mind as anyone with half a brain would.
So where is your problem?
victoria
I agree with your point on spur212. However in defence I must say I do not think anyone knew just how appalling Newman would be.
Bushfire Bill@109
Yes, your turgid rants waste my bandwidth.
[Good post.
Now stand by to get the same shellacking that spur got for daring to be realistic.]
It is curious that many posters here are (rightly) critical of the media-pack’s anti-Labor group-think, yet the leftist group-think here is very powerful and gets very nasty when challenged. Curiously, it combines fierce rhetorical support for the ALP with savage attacks on people who actually defend ALP policy (as I did yesterday on Israel).
Specifically to Bemused, I’d add that Labor’s prospects would be better if it wasn’t constantly being undermined by well-timed diversionary leaks from a certain former leader and his dwindling band of followers. #justsaying
So, bemused, ‘the usual suspects’ aren’t as sage or as perceptive as you were on 27th May when you spouted this:
[4469
Gillard will be replaced by Rudd. The only issue is the timing and I hope it does not take place too soon. September would be about right.
4477
Rudd is the only credible option. You may wish it was otherwise, but it isn’t.]
There you go ….
briefly@110
Welcome aboard comrade!
The present woes have their genesis in the half-baked and ineffectual Federal Intervention in 1970. The opportunity was there at the time and it wasn’t followed through.
Morning all. A few comments before I head out to enjoy the day.
First, I won’t even dignify the debate on Gillard’s past with the suffix “gate”. That implies there is evidence of a conspiracy or crime. There is not, other than by Wilson. Worst case, Gillard made an error of judgement in helping a former boyfriend, who used her and may have cost her her job. Even Peter Hartcher, a long time critic, agrees she has gotten through it.
[Gillard proved remarkably tough, certainly, but the opposition proved notably ineffectual. Acutely conscious of its failure to effectively indict Gillard, the opposition did not even attempt to move a motion of censure against her or, more seriously, a motion of no confidence.]
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/pm-lives-to-fight-another-day-20121130-2amng.html#ixzz2Dkqx7QFi
There are numerous examples on this blog of bludgers who indicated what would happen under Newman. zoomster confirming her status as one of them. OPT was very vocal on how The LNP would come undone
spur212:
There were a few of us who refused to wring our hands and get swept up in the msm drama and hysteria of the polls of a year ago, recognising that so far out from an election, it was quite likely things would change with time and other factors.
Some did try to tell you this at the time, yet for some reason you refused to listen.
Psephos@116
Leftist group-think hardly dominates here.
What is sadly lacking is critical analysis. What tends to predominate is crude media bashing and a cheer squad mentality.
We get back to the unpredicability of individual seats, and the problems which incur when you try and use state averages (let alone national ones) to predict outcomes.
Most of the seats listed as gorn for Labor were – on polling – gorn for Labor last election, too. But they’re still there.
And we get back to: if the polling is disastrous in some areas, yet still only a couple of percentage points behind overall, it must be better in others.
Now, you can quibble about this all you want (‘for all we know, these gains may only be in non marginal seats’ is a perfectly valid argument) – but what we do know is that, 99% of the time (1998 etc not withstanding) the party leading in the polls come Der Tag, generally ends up being the one forming government.
Every election sees seats go both ways which no pundit or pollster predicted beforehand (Victorian laborites still cherish the memory of Antony Green flashing up a seat on the night of 1999, saying “this is safe Liberal territory, we won’t see this one again tonight” — it has been held quite comfortably by Labor ever since).
Labor is in a better place than I expected it to be at this stage (previous comment about shit predictions still stands). It has got there by a slow gradual trend back (which is easy to dismiss), which is far more reliable than a major event blip. Governments have come from worse positions at this stage of the cycle (indeed, governments have been in worse positions when the election was actually called) and won comfortably.
Given the increasingly threadbare state of the Opposition, anyone seriously looking at the state of play (as a Martian, say) would be reasonably happy about Labor’s position.
Confessions @121
I have changed my opinion twice on Queensland and you say that I refuse to listen …
Victoria @111
What Bemused @113 said
muttleymcgee@117
I hereby appoint you my personal archivist.
Yes, making predictions is perilous as the unexpected can always occur.
I freely and cheerfully admit I have shifted my opinion on some matters and Rudd has made it clear he will not challenge and indeed if anyone else does he will back the PM.
So can you clarify what your problem is?
For those who think a RC will actually lead to change.
Stephen Fry @stephenfry
It would seem David Cameron’s address is no longer Number 10 Downing Street: it’s now Flat 2, Rupert Murdoch’s arse
[There were a few of us who refused to wring our hands and get swept up in the msm drama and hysteria of the polls of a year ago, recognising that so far out from an election, it was quite likely things would change with time and other factors.
Some did try to tell you this at the time, yet for some reason you refused to listen]
fess, i started putting together baby BISONs in march 2011 when it was 60-40 and they grew and grew to 50-50, at beast 51-49
As for the overall political balance, I agree with both Spur and Psephos (partly). Yes, Labor is improving rapidly in Qld, and yes, Labor will cop a hiding in NSW, and thus is still headed for electoral defeat. It isn’t over yet though, and Tony Abbott remains a bonus. Continuing to support Israel among the ultra conservative right wing elements of Labour won’t help, especially in Sydney.
Here in SA Weatherall is continuing to improve things, though the post Olympic Dam economy is not what it was before.
[Rudd has made it clear he will not challenge ]
When and where did he do that?
Socrates@119
Socrates, lets get two things straight.
1. Setting up an Incorporated Association is perfectly legal as is a lawyer advising on it.
2. Conveyancing is legal.
So the PM had NOTHING to answer for.
As for her leaving S&G, what makes you think it had anything to do with those 2 activities?
[Yes, making predictions is perilous as the unexpected can always occur.
I freely and cheerfully admit I have shifted my opinion on some matters and Rudd has made it clear he will not challenge and indeed if anyone else does he will back the PM.
So can you clarify what your problem is?]
I ahave no problem, I was defining you in your terms:
[The problem with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt.
– Bertrand Russell]
You are never full of doubt, ever.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias
[I’d add that Labor’s prospects would be better if it wasn’t constantly being undermined by well-timed diversionary leaks from a certain former leader and his dwindling band of followers.]
Exactly.
victoria@120
There is no precedent for what has happened under Newman.
I also thought he would run into trouble sooner rather than later, but I certainly am taken aback by the pace and extent of his ‘achievements’.
oh dear I come in the morning and its Rudd Rudd FFS.
Greensborough Growler@126
The plaintive wail of “Mr 3%”. 😆
[Continuing to support Israel among the ultra conservative right wing elements of Labour won’t help, especially in Sydney.]
Firstly, there are no “ultra conservative right wing elements” in Labor. There is a Labor Right, but that is a relative term; it means we are social democrats, not socialists. Secondly, support for Israel is official Labor policy and always has been, ever since Evatt’s days at the UN. Gillard follows Calwell and Hawke as notably strong Israel supporters. Third, it’s true that some in the left have drifted off towards the anti-Israel camp. But the issue in Sydney is not one of principle. It’s one of weak-kneed politicians scared of losing Muslim votes in the half-dozen seats where they are now concentrated.
[In hindsight, I didn’t appreciate just how much Newman could screw things up for the LNP in such a short period of time. He’s not like O’Farrell or Baillieu who have checks and balances on what they’re doing. This guy’s doing stuff on IR policy that hasn’t been seen in Queensland since federation. He’s a very special piece of work.]
Spur212 – are you telling us you voted for Newman?
I saw Brandis in full Newman defence mode yesterday. wtte that complaining Qlders should stop complaining and need not fear. Newman will have everything in apple pie order pretty soon. He has to do all this hard stuff now to make Qlders understand just how bad Labor was.
George Brandis is one heck of a good guy :devil:
Psephos@129
After the challenge earlier this year and several times since. He also said that if anyone else challenged, he would defend the PM.
However, that does of course not mean he wouldn’t contest if there was a vacancy and any future hope he may have no doubt rests on that slim chance.
fess,
Bemused and the band of Ruddistas are like those Japanese soldiers who kept WWII going in the Pacific Islands after 1945.
Having their arses kicked and their homeland A bombed isn’t going to stop them organising one last Bansai charge so they could die in glory for their Emperor.
Well there are a things almost all here agree on.
Abbott should never be PM.
Rupert Murdoch needs to get out of the media business.
Newman has “governed” in an appalling way.
@beneltham: Nate Silver smashes Politico. http://t.co/840G8TdU
BH @138
I don’t live in Queensland and even if I did I’d never consider voting for Newman. I’m just an interested observer who’s paying attention to what’s going on up there
muttleymcgee@131
I must put on a bold front. 😉
I doubt all the time but I do state opinions which reflect how I feel at the time.
And yes, I do get things wrong like everyone else.
[First, I won’t even dignify the debate on Gillard’s past with the suffix “gate”]
OhI don’t know… there’s a lot of “It’s not the crime, it’s the cover-up” going around, which of course Watergate started.
This was theOpposition’s tactic all along: they had nothing on Gillard from 20 years ago, so they tried to catch her out misleading parliament.
She’s too smart for them. Although she didn’t have to be a genius.
You could see Mesma’s punches coming from a mile off.
Tony didn’t even throw any.
Some “government’s greatest crisis” LOL.
bemused
‘there being no precedent’ was always exactly my point.
Sane political parties know that you can’t do what the LNP did with Newman and expect it to end well. Therefore no party has done it before.
Politics is a trade (or profession) like any other. Like any other, there are a series of unwritten rules about what works and what doesn’t, tried and tested over centuries, and any party which ignores them does so at their own peril.
Thus what happened with Newman, though unprecedented, was perfectly predictable – and that’s why the action was unprecedented.
It was also batshit crazy, from the start. The LNP were always going to romp it in. There was simply no need to put in a leader from outside of Parliament, who was always going to struggle with understanding how it all works.
Finns:
Remember that commenter with a clothing brand screen name who used to mock your BISONs?
Wonder whether we’ll see him again?
@Spur/143
Newman’s trashing the place and ruining the democracy.
guytaur
[I do not think anyone knew just how appalling Newman would be.]
Agree – a new word is needed to describe just how very, very appalling.
Psephos@137
Somethings going on this morning, I am agreeing with Psephos again!
“Firstly, there are no “ultra conservative right wing elements” in Labor. There is a Labor Right, but that is a relative term; it means we are social democrats, not socialists.”
This is true, but in NSW in particular, there is a venal corrupt element in the Right that I have long despised despite being long aligned with the Vic Right.
I reject the implication that supporting justice for Palestinians makes one anti-Israel except for a lunatic fringe who have all sorts of bizarre ideas.