Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Steady as she goes from Newspoll, barring a very slight improvement in Tony Abbott’s personal ratings.

After a period of complaints about Newspoll’s volatility, the latest result (related as usual by James J) is all but unchanged on the last: Labor and the Coalition steady on 36% and 43%, with the Greens up one to 11%, and two-party preferred steady on 51-49. Julia Gillard’s personal ratings are likewise perfectly unchanged at 37% approval and 52% disapproval, although Tony Abbott is up three points on approval from a dire result last time to 30%, and down two on disapproval to 61%. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed marginally from 46-32 to 46-33. The poll was conducted from Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1156.

UPDATE: The Courier-Mail today publishes federal voting intention results from the same Galaxy poll that produced yesterday’s state numbers. It shows Labor making a handy three point gain since the last poll in September at the direct expense of the Coalition, with the two parties at 33% and 46%. However, the Greens are down two points to 8%, which means there is only a one-point shift to Labor on two-party preferred, to 56-44.

The Herald Sun also has a JWS Research automated phone poll survey of 1391 Victorian voters conducted last Wednesday, with better results for the Baillieu government than Newspoll: the Coalition leads 48% to 38% on the primary vote and 52.1-47.9 on two-party preferred.

UPDATE 2: Essential Research has the Coalition gaining a point on the primary vote for the second successive week, now at 47%, with Labor and the Greens steady on 36% and 10%. Two-party preferred is unchanged at 53-47. Essential has also gauged support for the National Broadband Network and the Mineral Resources Rent Tax, which was very strong in each case, as well as for “the carbon pricing scheme – a tax on industries based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit”. It appears the extra detail in the question elicited stronger than usual support, which was at 46% against 44% opposed. Forty-five per cent believe a Coalition government should appeal it against 37% opposed, and 44% expect they would do so against 32% who don’t. On the question of its impact, “worse than expected” and “not as bad as expected” are both on 26%, with as expected on 36%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7,264 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 2 of 146
1 2 3 146
  1. DisplayName@45


    Didn’t someone say that the effect of any single event isn’t usually reflected immediately in the polls and that looking at changes (or lack of) from poll to poll is meangingless? I’m sure I read that somewhere, though I may have misunderstood it .

    I suspect that is the received wisdom of Possum and as such fairly credible. Still, its not a bad position to be in this far out from the election, particularly considering where the ALP’s polling has been.

  2. Well that’s a pleasant surprise…or is it?
    Public are well and truly over the smear and grubbiness of it all and want some genuine policy discussion – and that’s where the coalition are losing it.

    Wonder when the penny will drop for the intellectual pygmies of the libs brains trust? They have backed themselves into a corner with S&G-gate and can’t get out now.
    Keep smearing I say.

  3. Yes, quite a good result to end the NewsPoll year on.

    Labor within MOE of an election win, with a year of more achievements still ahead of them, a capable set of ministers with a strong and popular leader to guide them, and a comprehensive set of policies and sense of purpose.

    Noalition looking likely to “lose the unlosable election” yet again, with an uninspiring (in some cases positively nauseating) front bench, a dead weight as leader, and a policy vacuum that would put Electrolux to shame.

    And on top of that, a smear campaign from the Noaltion that has just turned to dust in their grubby little hands, achieving nothing except to make them look like a bunch of spineless, spiteful and stupid hypocrites.

    The only thing that could make it any better will be watching Gillard sweep the floor with both Abbott and Bishop in the coming week.

  4. The AWU thing isn’t getting any traction.

    It’s probably counter productive for the Libs unless they can get something to interest the police. The longer they flail around without something decent, the worse it will get for them.

    They look desperate and petty.

  5. At election the issues’ll be: Unemployment 5.3645712% , GDP 3.7% – Inflation 2% – Interest 3.25% – Credit AAA with 21 years of growth

  6. frednk

    The Greens better hope the boats stop for their own sake.

    Greens don’t know the meaning of compromise. It will be the issue to send them to their grave.

    Peak Pewny R.I.P. Can’t wait!

  7. Rod Hagan @36,

    Interesting point you make.

    I was concerned more with the effect of the AS issues than S & G on polling in this Newspoll.

    It has had no effect on labor despite the “open gate ” headlines in the Daily Telegraph and the rest of the stable and the Greens attack from the other flank.

    A bit of a surprise for me. Perhaps both lines of attack cancelled each other out or, as others have stated, people are now in Xmas meltdown.

    Any thoughts yourself ?

    Cheers

  8. This was the Newspoll that might have delivered the 51-49 lead to Labor but with two of the three polling days dominated by the lies and smear we get this result instead. Oh well, with the headlines in the DT and Herald Sun this morning we should expect Labor to claw back to a lead by Christmas. The public will be further hardened to reject MSM smears in the future which will suit JG and Labor generally.

  9. Predict the Shanahan headline game.

    I will go with him mentioning the Gillard beat-up, just to keep perpetuating the myth.

    ‘POLLS TIGHT AMID GILLARD SCANDAL’

  10. mari@47


    Now how will Dennis S write this up in The Oz, Tony Abbott gains on personal rating, what else can he say???

    Something like, “The Coalition would win an election if it was held this week.” And maybe something about how long it’s been since the ALP had a lead in the polls. Or:

    “With the full repercussions of the AWU scandal yet to filter through the electorate, the Coalition are in a strong position to consolidate their winning margin over the ALP in the coming weeks.”

  11. Now, if only the South Africans would like to lose another six wickets within 2 hours 20 minutes; in time for Question Time.

  12. [bwahahahaha go & fuack yourself]

    Seconded.

    Not only is Hartcher a shocking political analyst he is a BORE!

    FXJ clean out dead wood!

  13. So now Blewitt is telling the cops who they can prosecute…

    [Blewitt tells police of AWU role

    by: Pia Akerman
    From: The Australian
    November 24, 2012 12:00AM

    FORMER AWU bagman Ralph Blewitt yesterday gave Victorian police three written statements about his involvement in an alleged slush fund scandal, on condition that none of the material could be used in court against him.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/investigations/blewitt-tells-police-of-awu-role/story-fng5kxvh-1226523121924 ]

  14. Shanahan’s headline should read “Abbott too unpopular to lead Party to victory”.

    If the Australian wants a change in government – move now!

  15. Here it is:

    (real this time)

    [All-out war leaves voters unmoved

    by: DENNIS SHANAHAN, POLITICAL EDITOR
    From: The Australian
    November 25, 2012 11:00PM

    THE past two weeks of federal politics have left voter sentiment unmoved as the government and opposition prepare for the final parliamentary sitting week of the year.

    Labor’s primary vote appears to have levelled off at 36 per cent, after growing steadily, and the Coalition’s support remains the same as it was at the last election – 43 per cent.]

  16. Just been told on Twitter now B/agency odds now !.3r5 LNP to ALP $2.90 doesn’t take long

    Like some of the suggestions re how Dennis S will write in the Oz, can you imagine him furrowed brow, fingernails chewed to the bone, what can I say that will keep Old Rupe off my back?

  17. Yes, how many in mainstream media have called this a real crisis for Labor.

    Paul Kelly did, I heard him say so on Liberal Agenda.

    Another (Paul Kelly) dead wood that should hang up the boots.

  18. [… and a policy vacuum that would put Electrolux to shame.]

    That’s actually even better than the Nicola Roxon comment of today about Julie Bishop thinking she is Miss Marple.

  19. victoria @71,

    I think it is quiet funny that Newspoll is showing the best polling for labor and now it seems locked in and not “rogue”.

    The OO has worked its bum off to make Newspoll “the poll ” and has used it to set the OM agenda for the week following its release.

    They cannot now question its results without questioning the whole legitimacy of Newspoll itself.

    They are locked in. The wet themselves with joy with every bad for labor poll and wrote it up as the definite polling for “a election held now “.

    Now the polling is close they have really nowhere to go.

    They will try but it will be a hard ask without damaging Newspoll itself.

  20. [confessions I think it is valid to know Bishop’s personal history. She has no worries about besmirching the PM’s past. It’s helpful when making judgements as to suitability for office.]

    I disagree.

    JBishop will stand on her own feet when it comes to judging her fitness of office, just as Gillard is doing.

    JBishop’s relationships from the past are irrelevent. Esp when there is plenty to judge her Cabinet capacity on.

  21. Bobalot,

    You don’t come here very often, do you?

    BB is a dab hand. Something to do with his anthropomorphic lenses, I think.

  22. he News site that has PM Gillard’s ex-boyfriend saying she knew nothing about whatever it is that she is supposed to have known about has a poll:
    [“Does Bruce Wilson’s statement change your thinking on the AWU scandal?”
    Yes/No]

    About 10-11% of Ltd News readers have replied “yes”.
    So it seems 10-11% of [Ltd News] resondents who changed thir mind from something to something else were not included in the Newspoll cos the Wilson article came too late.

  23. The keys for them BISONs are the Tripartite : PM – Swannie as Treasurer & Emmo as Trade Minister – http://www.thefinnigans.blogspot.com.au/

    @CraigEmersonMP Emmo, focus on Unemployment 5.3645712% , GDP 3.7% – Inflation 2% – Interest 3.25% – Credit AAA with 21 years of growth

    @SwannyDPM Swannie, focus on Unemployment 5.3645712% , GDP 3.7% – Inflation 2% – Interest 3.25% – Credit AAA with 21 years of growth

  24. BB, the person you purported to have said many things did not say them. I recognised that you were trying to be funny, but there is nothing more certain than that others were going to fail to do so.

  25. [That’s actually even better than the Nicola Roxon comment of today about Julie Bishop thinking she is Miss Marple.]

    Mesma was looking quite haggard today.

Comments Page 2 of 146
1 2 3 146

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *