UPDATE (12/11/12): Essential Research has Labor gaining ground for the second week in a row to attain their best position since March last year. They now trail 52-48, down from 53-47, from primary votes of 37% for Labor (steady), 45% for the Coalition (down one) and 9% for the Greens (steady). Also featured are monthly personal approval ratings, which last time had both leaders up in the immediate aftermath of Julia Gillard’s sexism and misogyny speech. Whereas Gillard has maintained her gains, her approval steady at 41% approval and disapproval down two to 49%, Tony Abbott has fallen to his worst net result ever, his approval down four to 33% and disapproval up four to a new low of 58%. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is up from 43-36 to 45-32, her best result since February 2011. Also canvassed are options on how the government might rein in the budget, with reducing or means testing the baby bonus and increasing tax for those on high incomes respectively coming on top.
The southern Adelaide electorate of Boothby covers coastal suburbs from Brighton south to Marino, extending inland to edge of the coastal plain at Myrtle Bank and the hills at Belair, Eden Hills, Bellevue Heights and Flagstaff Hill. The seat’s Liberal lean is softened by the area around the defunct Tonsley Park Mitsubishi plant, the only part of the electorate with below average incomes and above average ethnic diversity. The redistribution has shaved the Liberal margin from 0.8% to 0.3% by adding about 10,000 in Aberfolye Park from Mayo in the south, and removing 4000 voters at Myrtlebank to Sturt and 1500 at Edwardstown to Hindmarsh.
Boothby was created when South Australia was first divided into electorates in 1903, at which time it was landlocked and extended north into the eastern suburbs. Its coastal areas were acquired when the neighbouring electorate of Hawker was abolished in 1993. Labor held the seat for the first eight years of its existence, and remained competitive until the Menzies government was elected in 1949. This began a long-term trend to the Liberals which peaked in the 1970s, when margins were consistently in double digits. Former Premier and Liberal Movement figurehead Steele Hall held the seat from 1981 until he was succeeded by Andrew Southcott in 1996.
A positive swing in the difficult 2004 election had Labor hopeful of going one better in 2007, inspiring Right powerbrokers to recruit what they imagined to be a star candidate in Nicole Cornes, a minor Adelaide celebrity and wife of local football legend Graham Cornes. However, Cornes only managed a 2.4% swing against a statewide result of 6.8% after a series of disastrous campaign performances. Labor again had high hopes at the 2010 election, seeing in the seat a potential gain to balance anticipated losses in Queensland and New South Wales. However, while the Labor swing of 2.2% outperformed a statewide result of 0.8%, perhaps reflecting a suppressed vote in 2007, it fell 0.8% short of what was required.
Andrew Southcott came to the seat at the age of 26 after winning preselection at the expense of fellow moderate Robert Hill, the faction’s leading light in the Senate. Tony Wright of the Sydney Morning Herald wrote that the Right had built up strength in local branches with a view to unseating its hated rival Steele Hall, and when denied by his retirement turned its guns on Hill as a surrogate. Unlike Hill, who went on to become government leader in the Senate, Southcott has led an unremarkable parliamentary career, finally winning promotion after the 2007 election defeat to the Shadow Minister for Employment Participation, Apprenticeships and Training. However, he was demoted to parliamentary secretary when Tony Abbott became leader in December 2009, after backing Malcolm Turnbull in the leadership vote.
Southcott’s preselection for the coming election was challenged by former state party president Chris Moriarty, following disquiet in the party over his fundraising record. However, Moriarty was only able to manage 35 votes in the February 2012 party ballot against 195 for Southcott, support for his challenge reportedly evaporating as the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge came to a head. Southcott will again face his Labor opponent from 2010, Annabel Digance, a former nurse and SA Water Board member factionally aligned with the Right.
fiona@2072
Miss… can I answer that please?
Approximately… zero. 👿
Confessions:
Are they still doing that? I think there was a decision made somewhere along the line that targeting youth was never going to get them enough viewers. They spent about 15 years riding the back of the Simpsons and Neighbours. But most of their youth-oriented projects didn’t do all that well – The Project is holding its own now.
With Bolt, it no doubt looked a smart move on paper – a tabloid show with the most recognisable of the News Ltd opinionistas. I can’t even begin to imagine what their thinking was with Breakfast. I’ve only seen snippets of it on other shows, and they were unwatchable.
I think Henry’s brief was to be shocking, but funny as well. He failed on both counts.
[Showsy,
I suppose when the sun comes up tomorrow, you’ll blame it on the Catholic Church.]
OH NO G.G. YOU REALLY GOT ME THERE!
It is funny you tangentially referring to the structure of the solar system when the catholic church denied it for decades because it contradicted their dogma!
Showsy,
The dogma ate your homework!
[Uhlmann is also contributing better work. His political analysis is more nuanced and effective than his often-blunt interviews. He has a particular knack for placing the day’s events in telling historical focus.]
Got that wrong. He is still terrible and is most definitely holding back the program. Why in gods name do they need this or any other fool to editorialise?
That’s not the role of the ABC. It’s just his dumb opinion and it no better than anyone else. Why give a right wing DLP type the megaphone?
[So your poorly disguised anti-Catholic rants don’t actually jell with the facts as articulated by our PM.]
YAWN! You’re very thick G.G., I’m not anti-Catholic, I am against all religious organisations that systematically cover up sexual abuse.
It is you that jumped to the conclusion and decided this must mean I’m referring simply to the catholic church!
As one who has been reading PB since Howard was PM, I’ve been a fan of BB, the Finnigans, Puff, Ian and OPT over the years. I remember Kirribilli Removals and Enemy Combatant and how they moved to Gilligans Island.
Am following this blog from Paris…yes, someone has to do it!!…and am relieved that our PM has called for a Royal commission. I had trouble following my say’s reasoning and can’t understand the sensitivity about others questioning her.
Have put my money where my mouth is and have backed our PM to win the next election. Won with Obama both elections thanks to Nate Silver.
News of the RC just on the BBC here.
[I didn’t ignore G.G.’s post. He accused me of being “prejudiced”, but this is laughable because there is an enormous amount of evidence that the Catholic Church has systematically covered up the activities of sex offenders. I suspect this Royal Commission will discover dozens of new instances of this occurring.]
It is kind of sad that this type of thing does not surprise me. Some people are so sick, it makes me frightened if I were ever to become a parent.
[Showsy,
The dogma ate your homework!]
Now you’re just being weird.
But if you do testify to this Royal Commission I hope you tell the whole truth so help your dog.
Fair bloody dinkum…
A company can knowingly conduct itself in a way that will by 2020 kill 60,000 Australians and nobody does so much as a day in gaol.
I want a full investigation into the criminal garbage that ran Hardies and criminal charges laid.
Fred Daly used to say that government’s don’t call royal commissions unless they already know the answers.
So here are the answers:
1.child sexual abuse is widespread in institutions
2. Sexual predators are attracted to and to an extent hidden within occupations of high respect in which they deal with children
3. Some of the Catholic hierarchy knew about and hid the abuse. They prevented appropriate investigation and punishment. There is no documentation linking Pell but as a lamb must be sacrificed it will be the Archbishop of Adelaide.
There 18 months and 50 million dollars saved.
Shellbell,
I like all of your random thoughts.
Very moving and scary program on asbestos.
Most of us – whether we realise it or not – live under the threat of that devil’s dust.
Who hasn’t renovated involving fibro? Or a thousand and one other things that rotten stuff was in?
They say it takes up to 50 years in some cases.
Aguirre:
I don’t watch Ch10 as it isn’t on air where I live. But I was always under the impression they were targetting the younger demographic. And by that I mean those aged under 40.
I could be wrong though.
[I suppose when the sun comes up tomorrow, you’ll blame it on the Catholic Church.]
No, but when the sun comes up tomorrow and the day after that and after that, more allegations like this will hit the papers.
SOME Catholic priests have used guns, knives and dogs in their sexual assaults on children and women, an inquiry has heard.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/breaking-news/inquiry-to-see-list-of-pedophile-priests/story-e6freuz0-1226514793956
Let the sun shine every morning on the abuse for the next 3-10 years.
My Say,
[you have not been here very long there has been other times when christian people have been set upon that is one trouble for newcomers they have no idea of the past history]
I take it that this was addressed to me.
I had not previously understood that it was longevity on this blog that qualified one to comment.
Silly me: I thought that reasoned argument was at least one of the prerequisites.
Okay, then, I will offer a deal: I won’t talk about/to you if you don’t talk about/to me.
SO
[My understanding is in S.A. there are laws that compel school teachers and medical practitioners to report such allegations. Well, why can’t those laws apply to ALL adults irrespective of their relationship to the minor?]
You’d get a huge number of crap allegations which would take forever to sort, leaving scarce resources for the serious genuine cases.
I agree that all allegations regarding organisational abuse or by people in protective roles should be mandatorily referred.
Showsy,
It’s just you’ve mentioned the “Lord Voldemort” organisation in just about every post tonight.
It’s well known you hate everybody and everything. So, you keep pedalling your bile. It’s all you’ve got.
Well said rummel!
From another perspective the analysis of the effectiveness of recovered memory techniques would be useful as this informs a number of complaints made against accuseds.
As I understand it, victims who have received such treatment do not have their complaints pursued by prosecuting authorities.
[There 18 months and 50 million dollars saved.]
And no leverage for change achieved whatsoever.
Bill Shorten @billshortenmp
Very powerful show + a powerful reminder that there’s still more to be done to fight the scourge of asbestos #DevilsDust
dear oh dear…
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/federal-childcare-minister-kate-ellis-and-news-limited-editor-david-penberthy-engaged-to-marry/story-e6frea83-1226515341911
[Federal Childcare Minister Kate Ellis and News Limited editor David Penberthy engaged to marry
adelaidenow
November 12, 2012 5:34PM]
[It’s just you’ve mentioned the “Lord Voldemort” organisation in just about every post tonight.]
As is my right. The fact this bothers you so much is not my concern.
[It’s well known you hate everybody and everything.]
WOAH! That’s a pretty broad statement, do you think you may want to re-evaluate your terms of reference?
[So, you keep pedalling your bile. It’s all you’ve got.]
Well it seems I’ve pissed you off so that’s something else that you didn’t mention.
fiona
i dont beleive i have ever talked about u
not once
why would i
fiona
i dont beleive i have ever talked about u
not once
why would i
About 5 years ago the NSW government attempted to introduce mandatory reporting of all cases of under age sex.
Given the current age of first sexual experience, The AMA objected that GPs would not have time to see patients
[SOME Catholic priests have used guns, knives and dogs in their sexual assaults on children and women, an inquiry has heard.]
Ugh! It just gets worse.
I agree with rummel: let that sun shine in, long and hard.
Am following this blog from Paris…yes, someone has to do it
Erasmus – Ah, I’m deadset jealous but you have redeemed yourself by keeping abreast the reports over there re PM.
Can ShowsOn and GG wrap it up please.
confessions@2094
confessions, on this occasion I am firmly on your side. Now don’t faint or anything. 😉
Shellbell
[From another perspective the analysis of the effectiveness of recovered memory techniques would be useful as this informs a number of complaints made against accuseds.
As I understand it, victims who have received such treatment do not have their complaints pursued by prosecuting authorities.]
The effectiveness of recovered memory techniques has been analysed in many journals.
It’s complete crap and is not admissible as evidence.
OC,
You reckon only $50 mill.
The way people’s expectations are shaping up, this will be costing a motza; 3-5 times that.
[You’d get a huge number of crap allegations which would take forever to sort, leaving scarce resources for the serious genuine cases.]
If they are crap allegations shouldn’t that become apparent pretty quickly?
BB,
[Who hasn’t renovated involving fibro? Or a thousand and one other things that rotten stuff was in?
They say it takes up to 50 years in some cases.]
Back in 1968 I found my father sawing away at a piece of asbestos cement. I did my block: Where is your mask? What the hell are you doing to yourself and to us? (I was only 13, but was already wised-up to the dangers.)
Three months ago, the next stage of the laundry renovation was happening. OH assured me that there was no, but no asbestos anywhere at all at all on the premises. A few weeks later he said wtte “Oh, yes, and the asbestos sheets are all wrapped up out in the shed.”
I went to town big time. Reminded him that he has told me that there was no asbestos. Reminded him of the lag time. Told him that if he came down with any asbestos-related disease it was straight into the nursing home, because I bloody well wouldn’t nurse him. Told him that if I came down with any asbestos-related disease I’d sue him.
And I WILL TOO.
Newspoll
51-49 2PP to the coalition
Primaries: Coalition 43, ALP 36 , Greens 10
Better PM: Gillard 46, Abbott 32
Gillard: Satisfied 37, Dissatisfied 52
Abbott: Satisfied 27, Dissatisfied 63
Sorry should have added the recommendations.
1. PM to make an apology in parliament
2. Police and public prosecutors to persue cases -except those who now have immunity as a result of the commission
3. Government to set up a compensation fund
4. Mandatory reporting
but i do find people with the least education are sometimes the nicest
but also listen to motzart and other composers actully i have my head phones on now listning to panio music
amazing grace
[OC,
You reckon only $50 mill.
The way people’s expectations are shaping up, this will be costing a motza; 3-5 times that.]
Wow, $250 million, BIG DEAL. There are victims of some of the most horrendous crimes who have gone decades without justice, and all you seem to care about is the MONEY!?
What a weak argument, you should be ashamed of yourself.
One of the most hazardous occupations for asbestos used to be toll collectors because of the extensive use of asbestos in brake linings.
Showsy,
More pissing myself laughing at your post hoc rationalisations.
What, Kate Ellis and David Penberthy?
Nah, nah, sorry, might be a bit rude but, Kate you can do much better 😯
Pity a state by state breakdown is a little way off so we can start thinking about seats in play – must inform preselection
Diogenes,
[The effectiveness of recovered memory techniques has been analysed in many journals.
It’s complete crap and is not admissible as evidence.]
The “killer”, so to speak, would have to be that case in WA, where a daughter accused her father of “satanic” rituals. Later, retracted on the ground that wtte “it was something that happened to me in a previous life”.
However, repressed memory syndrome is far better documented.
[I thought that reasoned argument was at least one of the prerequisites.]
well we certainly speak a differnt language you and i
so i suppoe we want be communicating
]
[I thought that reasoned argument was at least one of the prerequisites.]
well we certainly speak a differnt language you and i
so i suppoe we want be communicating
]
And here, in the light of the latest NewsPoll, is a song for Tone.
http://tinyurl.com/axtc7h2
Shellbell
I have an huge distrust of the concept of recovered memories. The whole thing is open to manipulation. ASAIK, trauma is more likely to imprint memory than repress it. It is the memories that cannot be forgotten that cause long term problems for victims.
[I agree that all allegations regarding organisational abuse or by people in protective roles should be mandatorily referred.]
This report indicates that SA has the most far-reaching laws for mandatory notifications:
Who is mandated to notify?
SA:
[Doctors; pharmacists; registered or enrolled nurses; dentists; psychologists; police officers; community corrections officers; social workers; teachers; family day care providers; employees/volunteers in a government department, agency or instrumentality, or a local government or non-government agency that provides health, welfare, education, sporting or recreational, child care or residential services wholly or partly for children; ministers of religion (with the exception of disclosures made in the confessional); employees or volunteers ]
NT however allows for anyone with reasonable grounds. How to get around the confessional stuff though?
http://www.aifs.gov.au/cfca/pubs/factsheets/a141787/index.html
New thread.