Seat of the week: Boothby

Last held by Labor in 1949, the southern Adelaide suburbs seat of Boothby has been trending in the party’s direction since the early Howard years.

UPDATE (12/11/12): Essential Research has Labor gaining ground for the second week in a row to attain their best position since March last year. They now trail 52-48, down from 53-47, from primary votes of 37% for Labor (steady), 45% for the Coalition (down one) and 9% for the Greens (steady). Also featured are monthly personal approval ratings, which last time had both leaders up in the immediate aftermath of Julia Gillard’s sexism and misogyny speech. Whereas Gillard has maintained her gains, her approval steady at 41% approval and disapproval down two to 49%, Tony Abbott has fallen to his worst net result ever, his approval down four to 33% and disapproval up four to a new low of 58%. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is up from 43-36 to 45-32, her best result since February 2011. Also canvassed are options on how the government might rein in the budget, with reducing or means testing the baby bonus and increasing tax for those on high incomes respectively coming on top.

The southern Adelaide electorate of Boothby covers coastal suburbs from Brighton south to Marino, extending inland to edge of the coastal plain at Myrtle Bank and the hills at Belair, Eden Hills, Bellevue Heights and Flagstaff Hill. The seat’s Liberal lean is softened by the area around the defunct Tonsley Park Mitsubishi plant, the only part of the electorate with below average incomes and above average ethnic diversity. The redistribution has shaved the Liberal margin from 0.8% to 0.3% by adding about 10,000 in Aberfolye Park from Mayo in the south, and removing 4000 voters at Myrtlebank to Sturt and 1500 at Edwardstown to Hindmarsh.

Boothby was created when South Australia was first divided into electorates in 1903, at which time it was landlocked and extended north into the eastern suburbs. Its coastal areas were acquired when the neighbouring electorate of Hawker was abolished in 1993. Labor held the seat for the first eight years of its existence, and remained competitive until the Menzies government was elected in 1949. This began a long-term trend to the Liberals which peaked in the 1970s, when margins were consistently in double digits. Former Premier and Liberal Movement figurehead Steele Hall held the seat from 1981 until he was succeeded by Andrew Southcott in 1996.

A positive swing in the difficult 2004 election had Labor hopeful of going one better in 2007, inspiring Right powerbrokers to recruit what they imagined to be a star candidate in Nicole Cornes, a minor Adelaide celebrity and wife of local football legend Graham Cornes. However, Cornes only managed a 2.4% swing against a statewide result of 6.8% after a series of disastrous campaign performances. Labor again had high hopes at the 2010 election, seeing in the seat a potential gain to balance anticipated losses in Queensland and New South Wales. However, while the Labor swing of 2.2% outperformed a statewide result of 0.8%, perhaps reflecting a suppressed vote in 2007, it fell 0.8% short of what was required.

Andrew Southcott came to the seat at the age of 26 after winning preselection at the expense of fellow moderate Robert Hill, the faction’s leading light in the Senate. Tony Wright of the Sydney Morning Herald wrote that the Right had built up strength in local branches with a view to unseating its hated rival Steele Hall, and when denied by his retirement turned its guns on Hill as a “surrogate”. Unlike Hill, who went on to become government leader in the Senate, Southcott has led an unremarkable parliamentary career, finally winning promotion after the 2007 election defeat to the Shadow Minister for Employment Participation, Apprenticeships and Training. However, he was demoted to parliamentary secretary when Tony Abbott became leader in December 2009, after backing Malcolm Turnbull in the leadership vote.

Southcott’s preselection for the coming election was challenged by former state party president Chris Moriarty, following disquiet in the party over his fundraising record. However, Moriarty was only able to manage 35 votes in the February 2012 party ballot against 195 for Southcott, support for his challenge reportedly evaporating as the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge came to a head. Southcott will again face his Labor opponent from 2010, Annabel Digance, a former nurse and SA Water Board member factionally aligned with the Right.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,169 comments on “Seat of the week: Boothby”

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  1. bemused@2044


    Puff, the Magic Dragon.@2007


    I see James Hardy directors had their penalties reduced. That is sickening.


    There should have been criminal cases resulting in very serious gaol time.

    An absolute disgrace. How nobody ended up in gaol, i don’t know, nor how James Hardies were allowed to split their company and relocate overseas. I wonder just who thought up that bit of sheer bastardry.

  2. [Showsy,

    It’s a bit broader than your prejudiced mind can cope.]
    I realise this is a very bad day for you, but there’s no need to be a moron about it.

  3. GG

    I agree about the old cases. Clearly there have been major problems in the past which should be recognised but I’m more interested in trying to prevent it happening in the future so the reporting requirements are the main thing for me.

    I also agree that we didn’t necessarily need to have a RC for that to happen but that’s how it has ended up.

    They can’t possibly investigate all cases of organisational child abuse so I’ll be interested to see how the terms of reference are drafted.

  4. Ch10 axes its poorly-rating breakfast TV show because the viewer numbers couldn’t justify the high salary paid to one of the hosts.
    http://www.news.com.au/entertainment/television/channel-ten-axes-breakfast-and-morning-news-bulletin/story-e6frfmyi-1226514926249

    How many viewers does Bolt’s show get – can’t believe he’d pull as many as Insiders (for whatever that’s worth), and he’d surely be on a high-ish salary like the breakfast host.

    Can we expect to see his show cancelled anytime soon?

  5. [JG has shown once again that she has the courage to do what is right.]

    It’s worth remembering she said no to a RC in August.

    The main thing since then was the Fox allegations. He’s the one who made this reach the tipping point.

  6. Showsy,

    Is this the part of the story where you say something stupid again and get yourself banned again.

    You are as predictable as a Scooby doo plot!

  7. [They can’t possibly investigate all cases of organisational child abuse so I’ll be interested to see how the terms of reference are drafted.]
    We know what will happen. We will find organisations like the Catholic Church have systematically covered up sex crimes by their members, and have gone out of their way to stop the police from investigating those crimes.

    The only way you will stop that from continuing to happen is if you place a legal obligation on all adults to report claims of abuse to the police. If such a law was a crime, and came with a possible jail term it would stop the institutional cover ups that have been going on for decades. There should also be a complete end to organisations like the catholic church investigating themselves, because that almost always just results in complete frustration for the victims of these crimes, which of course is deliberate because the catholic church ultimately cares more about its own reputation than the lives’ of the victims.

  8. [Showsy,

    Is this the part of the story where you say something stupid again and get yourself banned again.]
    Why are you still here? Shouldn’t you be consulting with your team of lawyers?

  9. I don’t usually watch 730 anymore, unless comments here indicate an outstanding interview – few and far between since Red Kerry was moved on. So was interested to see the show has regained its viewer numbers after the woeful Uhlmann got relegated to interviewer, leaving Sales as the sole host.
    http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/how-730-got-its-mojo-back-20121109-291hm.html

    The changes described in the article were precisely why I stopped watching: poor story selection, nothing to do with the issues of the day, hapless Ulhmann appearing front and centre etc. Well done to Sales, and well done to Sally Neighbour for engineering a turn-around.

  10. Finns,

    As pointed out, it is not an inquiry in to the Catholic Church alone.

    They might even investigated schools of fish.

  11. I’ll be watching Media Watch tonight to see if Lateline’s stuff up about the ‘fresher’ from St John’s saying all was hunky dory there when in reality the ‘fresher’ was a senior and member of the student council.
    The night after the truth was revealed all Lateline could say was that “Doubt has been cast..” on the identity of the person concerned. No explanation of how that person was able to ‘fool’ the Lateline staff.
    Weak.

  12. Prime Minister Julia Gillard has made the call for a royal commission to uncover the truth into child sexual abuse but its scope will move beyond the Catholic church and target all institutions.

    The RC had to be broader than the Catholic Church. If one was victim of sex abuse in an institution other than the Catholic Church, then your voice would not be heard and the pain further compounded.

  13. spray

    you should post more often
    i personally could never bee an athiest, the nuns taught me so much and gave so much, i was never hit, or
    called a bad name or had anything cruel said or done to me
    .that all happened at home

    menally abused was i,but only becauce i had sick mum
    whom i loved,
    idont know spray if there is alife after death
    but i feel there is to many things happen on a daily basis to think there is not one looking after me and the family and friends around me.

    its actully children like me that go under the radar,
    but i am strong person through all that
    thanks mum

  14. fiona, I think JG has lifted herself “above” politics in a way. She has come to signify meanings/values such as dignity, forbearance, patience, duty, courage and intelligence that are really intrinsic to leadership itself. JG’s persona is very distinctive and – in my opinion, at least – registers equally deeply with people.

    Even her customary detractors seem to have been deflated. Surely this is because they too identify with some of the values JG now represents, even if they are not reconciled to her in political terms.

    And in a binary system, this increased affiliation with JG is matched by disaffiliation from TA. So I suspect you right. She may rule for a long time to yet.

  15. [we actully won you and i we wanted a broad all or nothing]

    Actually this seemed (to me anyways) to be what most commenters here wanted.

    Personally, I’m very pleased to see State-run institutions are also in scope, even though some states may have already held or instigated inquiries into those facilities.

    As we saw with First Nations peoples in Canada, the abuses which took place in State-run residential schools was not only horrific, but endemic.

    Let there be light.

  16. Can someone tweet the latest news to those Republicans coming to live in our God-fearing, male led country

    No – let them discover the Devil’s own country for themselves…

  17. [G G

    i see our posts are now ignored,]
    I didn’t ignore G.G.’s post. He accused me of being “prejudiced”, but this is laughable because there is an enormous amount of evidence that the Catholic Church has systematically covered up the activities of sex offenders. I suspect this Royal Commission will discover dozens of new instances of this occurring.

  18. Key is a Commissioner who commands respect and will produce a report whose recommendatiosn will be acted upon at a State level as its State laws which will need to be changed in the way ShowsOn dscribes.

    Commissioners’ reports which have been acted upon in recent times are Jackson QC in James Hardie and Fitzgerald QC in Qld. Maybe Ipp QC can be seconded from ICAC although he is a bit busy.

    Sub-commissioners are like third wheels. They were asleep at the wheel while the first Dr Patel commission went to the shithole with an intemperate Commissioner restrained by the court fom hearing the matter.

    Random ideas:

    (a) Showson’s one about notification;
    (b) no limitation period for claims;
    (c) levy institutions to create a fund to be administered independently to resolve ongoing claims – there are levies on insurers and employers which pay set claims in sveral states eg asbestos victims in NSW, Qld and Tasmania.

  19. arcasim

    fiona is above me

    most people where as far as i could tell

    as GG i think from his comments that was his opinion

    also

    as i said we deserve an apology,

    as if i would not want a body to look in to all abuse of children
    you cannot single out just one instituion, i got the feelint a lot of people would of like to
    but the pm obviously agreed with GG and i

    we will leave it at that i think

    and yes i do feel better thank you

    you have not been here very long there has been other times when christian people have been set upon that is one trouble for newcomers they have no idea of the past history

  20. My Say,

    I’ve said plenty about the topic and I don’t resile from anything that I’ve posted. A lot of people are “high fiving” over an announcement of an RC where the terms of reference have not even been disclosed. This will inevitably leads to disappointment because the process will take a long time, people will claim it is not comprehensive enough and the eventual outcomes are likely to be fairly modest.

    Many of the same sceptics doubted my expectations that the polls would turn around for Gillard and Labor and basically, every prediction I’ve made has eventuated. The only one not quite right atm is that Gillard’s job was to have Labor’s Primary at 38% by years end (Currently 36%). But that may still happen.

    So, I’m comfortable with my assessments and analysis of the situation.

  21. From way back in the thread:

    [It speaks volumes about the Catholic Church that the best defence they have is “well… other churches protect rapists too!”]

    Glad i’m not the only one who finds that aspect of this issue disturbing. Considering the RC church has set itself up as the mob worthy of the official hotline to the deity, you’d think they could do a bit better than that.

  22. briefly
    [I think JG has lifted herself “above” politics in a way. She has come to signify meanings/values such as dignity, forbearance, patience, duty, courage and intelligence that are really intrinsic to leadership itself. JG’s persona is very distinctive]
    Someone here, sadly I cannot remember who, posted here some weeks ago, the view (more elegantly than I am about to express) that one of the benefits that accrues with incumbency is that people begin to identify the characteristics of the individual as being “primeministerial”, that this was starting with Gillard, and that this was very bad news for Abbott

  23. I guess we should turn our minds to who might head up the RC. It will probably be a retired Judge who would need to be highly respected with a reputation for cutting through all the garbage and cutting, slicing, and dicing those who may be ‘guilty’ of indiscretions.

    At first, I thought of Michael Kirby, but he would be assailed by some as being inappropriate because of his sexuality. He would be my first choice in any event.

  24. nooo

    it me
    and he aint heavy he s my brother.

    that is the song our leavers sing at the end of every year

    a christina bros school with a great history and
    comrade ship of 12 th boys,

  25. ShowsOn@2054


    Showsy,

    It’s a bit broader than your prejudiced mind can cope.


    I realise this is a very bad day for you, but there’s no need to be a moron about it.

    Showy, you and GG provide first class entertainment. 😀

  26. [This will inevitably leads to disappointment because the process will take a long time, people will claim it is not comprehensive enough and the eventual outcomes are likely to be fairly modest.]
    Sure a Royal Commission of this scale will take years to report, but you are talking about the victims of sex abuse who in some instances have gone decades without having their claims taken seriously by people inside and outside various religious institutions, most notably the Catholic Church. The fact this got on the agenda so quickly and now has the support of the Government and Opposition is amazing in itself.

    I suspect there will be a very substantial recommendation made from the report. Religious organisations, such as the Catholic Church, will no longer be able to conduct shame ‘investigations’ that are designed to delay and deny victims from receiving just outcomes after being abused.

  27. Some faulty logic in some of the comments on #newspoll. They think that since Essential was +1 for Labor, Newspoll should move in Labor’s favour too. Now that might realistically happen but it doesn’t follow that it should, since the last (50-50) Newspoll was generous to Labor compared to the trend.

    The most likely result given the trend is 52-48 to Coalition or 51-49 to Coalition but given the amount of random bouncing the chance of any given result is well <50%. Trying to guess the Newspoll 2PP is a bit like trying to guess the sum of a roll of a couple of four-sided dice.

  28. [levy institutions to create a fund to be administered independently to resolve ongoing claims ]

    What an excellent suggestion!

  29. outside left

    thank you.

    its nice to be vindicated, as gg said some high fives

    as some wanted the catholic church on its knees

    excuse the pun

    thankyou again outside left.

    god bless
    i annore the hell out of every one here
    with christianity
    you know what i dont give a dam

  30. confessions@2058


    Ch10 axes its poorly-rating breakfast TV show because the viewer numbers couldn’t justify the high salary paid to one of the hosts.
    http://www.news.com.au/entertainment/television/channel-ten-axes-breakfast-and-morning-news-bulletin/story-e6frfmyi-1226514926249

    How many viewers does Bolt’s show get – can’t believe he’d pull as many as Insiders (for whatever that’s worth), and he’d surely be on a high-ish salary like the breakfast host.

    Can we expect to see his show cancelled anytime soon?

    From what I’d heard, the reason the Breakfast show lasted so long was because Paul Henry was signed up to a massive two-year contract which he refused to let them break. It forced them to cut corners elsewhere. Obviously they’ve decided to bite the bullet and pay him out. Stupid idea to get him in there in the first place.

    I don’t know why Bolt has a show. He’s not setting any agendas, and he’s only preaching to the long converted. The show’s just treading water. It’s obviously not having the impact it’s supposed to. But I’m happy for it to stay as long as it keeps him the hell away from Insiders.

    I guess somebody up in the Ten hierarchy decided that controversial figures would attract viewers. Whoever that person is ought to be sacked. They’ve caused untold damage to the station.

  31. [as i said we deserve an apology,]

    Sorry, but I can’t agree. Who was it who ridiculously suggested that those arguing for a royal commission into this affair wanted xmas cancelled!

  32. [Key is a Commissioner who commands respect and will produce a report whose recommendatiosn will be acted upon at a State level as its State laws which will need to be changed in the way ShowsOn dscribes.]
    Why can’t there be new federal sexual assault / abuse laws?

    I think if any child reports being sexually abused to any adult the adult should be legally compelled to report that allegation to police. My understanding is in S.A. there are laws that compel school teachers and medical practitioners to report such allegations. Well, why can’t those laws apply to ALL adults irrespective of their relationship to the minor?

    If such laws existed then you couldn’t have the scenario of various institutions, such as the catholic church, choosing to deal with such allegations ‘in house’, as soon as those allegations are made there would be a legal requirement for them to be reported to actual official criminal investigative body, the police.

  33. Aguirre:

    Ch10 openly courts the youth demographic, which makes it all the more weird that they’d happily have angry man presenters like Bolt and Henry fronting shows.

    Henry is in his 50s, and from what I can gather of news reports, used to rant Hadley-style at viewers each morning. Bolt would be the same.

  34. [Why can’t there be new federal sexual assault / abuse laws?]

    There can be but only in relation to federal matters ie an interstate element (maybe something like relocating pederasts from one state to another) or a matter over which the Feds have power.

    Most abuse is intrastate.

  35. Showsy,

    “Ms Gillard stressed the commission would not target any one religion and said the Catholic Church’s senior cleric in Australia Cardinal George Pell had indicated ‘he’s taking a very co-operative attitude'”.

    So your poorly disguised anti-Catholic rants don’t actually jell with the facts as articulated by our PM.

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