Seat of the week: Adelaide

Kate Ellis’s electorate of Adelaide is a one-time Labor stronghold which has generally been marginal since the late 1980s, although she has enjoyed a handy buffer in the wake of Labor’s strong statewide performances in 2007 and 2010.

The electorate of Adelaide has existed without fundamental change since South Australia was first divided into electorates in 1903, currently stretching from the city centre to the Labor strongholds of Prospect, Enfield and Brompton to the north and an electorally mixed bag of areas to the east and south. There are sources of Liberal strength in Walkerville to the north-east of the city, Toorak Gardens to the west and Malvern to the south. The areas south of the city include Unley, home to the high school which Julia Gillard attended.

Labor first won Adelaide in 1908, and it was usually held by them from then until 1988. It was lost in that year at a by-election caused by the resignation of Chris Hurford, falling to Liberal candidate Mike Pratt with an 8.4% swing. Labor recovered the seat at the 1990 election, but an unfavourable redistribution together with a swing fuelled by hostility to the state government delivered it to Liberal candidate Trish Worth in 1993. Worth’s margin never rose above 3.5% in her 11 years as member, and she survived by just 343 votes in 2001. Labor finally toppled her in 2004 when inner-city seats across the land bucked the national shift to the Coalition, a decisive 1.9% swing delivering Adelaide to Labor’s 27-year-old candidate, Kate Ellis.

In keeping with statewide trends, Adelaide swung solidly to Labor in 2007, by 7.2%, and recorded little change in 2010, swinging 0.8% to the Liberals. The latest redistribution has added 1600 voters in Vale Park to bring the electorate into line with a municipal boundary, which has garnished the Labor margin from 7.7% to 7.5%. The area covered by the electorate swung resoundingly to the Liberals at the 2010 state election, with Education Minister Jane Lomax-Smith losing the Adelaide electorate with a swing of 14.8%, and the eight neighbouring electorates (all of which are partly within the federal electorate) swinging by between 8.5% and 14.3%.

Kate Ellis is associated with the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association, the mainstay of the “Catholic Right”, and its powerful state figurehead, Senator Don Farrell. After serving her apprenticeship as an adviser to state Industry Minister Rory McEwen and Treasurer Kevin Foley, Ellis won preselection following a three-way factional deal that secured Hindmarsh for Steve Georganas of the “soft Left” and Makin for Dana Wortley of the “hard Left” (who nevertheless lost the preselection to Tony Zappia, but was compensated with a Senate seat).

Her elevation to the position of Youth and Sport Minister after the 2007 election victory made her Labor’s youngest ever minister, at the age of 30 – the previous record holder being Paul Keating at 31. After the 2010 election she was reassigned to employment participation, childcare and the status of women. In common with the rest of her faction, Ellis emerged as a strong supporter of Julia Gillard’s leadership. Shortly before Kevin Rudd’s challenge in February 2012, she told Adelaide radio that Rudd had approached her and other SDA figures at a hotel to ask how they could reconcile their “conservative brand of Catholicism” with “a childless, atheist ex-communist as Labor leader”.

The preselected Liberal candidate for the next election is Carmen Garcia, director of Multicultural Youth SA and a daughter of Filipino migrants.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,009 comments on “Seat of the week: Adelaide”

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  1. confessions@88


    This was patently obvious to everyone at the time, so why does Phil Coorey think that telling us this 2 years later is newsworthy? Why wasn’t he hounding out this story back then?

    I think for a couple of reasons:

    1. Emerson’s been making a big song and dance about it, especially on Twitter.

    2. It dulls Abbott’s main point of attack, calling Gillard a ‘liar’. If every time he does that someone comes back at him with this, he’ll probably stop after a short while.

  2. zoomster

    Totally agree. History proves the point. Due to loyalty. Paul Keating was able to flex his political muscles and defeat Hewson.

  3. Looks like the biggest story of the week, judging by the ‘most viewed’ in Fairfax, is the Tracey Spicer one about sexism in the newsroom. McKew and related stories have dropped off the list entirely. It’s not attracting any comments either.

    I don’t know why anyone would buy the book, or read it either. There’s been constant talk on here about it this week, and nothing new has been added to the story. Even the journalists can barely rouse themselves to any level of interest.

  4. [guytaur
    Posted Saturday, October 27, 2012 at 9:59 am | Permalink

    Ctar

    The Greens will be pushing for more backbone on saving the Murray.
    A good support for the Prime Minister. The Libs and Nats are trying again their fear tactics.]

    The PM has decided to burn political capital getting more water for the murray, what more do the want?

  5. Excellent video from the Economist Magazine Conference featuring Fund Manager Hugh Hendry, also extensive portion on the Chinese Leadership changeover and the challenges facing China.

    Its lengthy but if interested you can do other things while listening to it.

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/10/superb-hugh-hendry-interview-on-gold.html

    When starting the video it asks for an email address, but you just put anything in there and it works.

  6. GG:

    Yes I get all that. My issue is that 2 years ago OM had the chance to really blowtorch the coalition’s pledges and so on when a govt was being formed, and didn’t.

  7. [The news is Bronwyn Bishop confirmed the story ]

    I think the story in this is everyone wondering just how stupid BBishop is for actually saying this on the record.

    Surely she didn’t think that everyone else hadn’t worked this out at the time!.

  8. confessions@110


    GG:

    Yes I get all that. My issue is that 2 years ago OM had the chance to really blowtorch the coalition’s pledges and so on when a govt was being formed, and didn’t.

    That’s even less of a surprise than what Abbott said. I don’t think you’ll be getting too many stories about complicit media in the near future.

  9. [joe2:

    The news value in the {early election} story was 2 years ago when O and W were saying exactly that.]

    I distinctly remember Windsor saying straight-out at the Oakeshotte-Windsor press conference that he didn’t go with Abbott because he wanted to call an early election.

    Also that there was some high-dudgeon and shock-horror (that Windsor should be so, ahem, political about it, and this meant he wasn’t really a “noble Independent” thinking only of the good of the nation at all etc.) expressed by certain journalists and Abbott at this blunt statement.

    I think the word “hypocrisy” was bandied about. Several commenters here defended Windsor, not by explaing that he was just being common sensical about things, but that he didn’t really mean it anyway. He’d been misinterpreted, taken out of context and so on.

    Of course, it’s exactly what he meant.

    Abbott has prken all his “kinder, gentler polity” promises, most of them from Day #1.

    Windsor is a wily old campaigner. He sussed Abbott out to a “T”, right from the start.

    I’d love to hear what he has recorded on his Blackberry.

  10. [The PM has decided to burn political capital getting more water for the murray, what more do the want?]

    If a mainstream party like Labor can deliver environmental benefits, why do we need the Greens? These ideological fixations the Greens have at the expense of pragmatic solutions make them look like children playing at being adults.

  11. “@geeksrulz: The media has gone very quiet about their investigative journalism work into who leaked the Thomson raid to the media. Wonder why? #context”

  12. The constant undercurrent of JG being childless makes me wonder if male PMs suffered the same criticism if they were childless. The ones I can think of are:
    Chifley
    Holt ( although it was later revealed the 2 of his “step children” were biologically his)
    McEwen
    (No comments on McMahon please)
    I doubt if the issue was ever raised for any of them

  13. At any other time, the current government would be acknowledged as being progressive and reformist – despite the carping of the conservative hacks.

    Regardless of the outcome in 2013, Labor can be proud of what it has done in the last 5 years. It has moved the country on.

    Yet another two pieces of policy significance – the work on the MD and now a blue print for engagement in Asia – are current.

    As Andrew Probyn pointed out yesterday, this approach of hitting the Opposition with new policies and positions and moving on, makes them look decidedly flat footed and caught out. This is really starting to show them up and could well be their undoing.

    No wonder they have concentrated on three word slogans and – of course, “the boats” – this is all they really have in the policy bin.

    Sooner or later, these dunderheads will have to acknowledge that a policy vacuum tied to a negative leader will just not deliver office.

    The problems with minority government is that the progressive side has been having to fight for survival on the one hand, yet produce and get through the House, good policy. And, let’s not forget, in the first 6 months of this government, the conservatives and their lackies held power in the Senate.

    The fact that the joke tellers are out in force in PB may be some subtle message that the politics has, temporarily, hit some kind of quiet water. Almost scared to say this for calling the wolf to the door!

  14. CTar1

    [The news is Bronwyn Bishop confirmed the story

    I think the story in this is everyone wondering just how stupid BBishop is for actually saying this on the record]
    Stupid or deliberate ?

  15. lizzie@31


    Dennis Atkins has confirmed in the Courier Mail this morning that Julia Gillard only decided to challenge 24 hours before the meeting with Rudd and in fact had said no to any challenge several times before that.

    Another journo confirming that McKew is talking crap.


    Odd that Hartcher, who knows better, has changed his tune so much. Good on Atkins.
    But I suppose people will believe what they want to believe. :sigh:

    So Atkins has been backgrounded?
    Goodness me. I thought Julia and her acolytes didn’t do such things. 😆
    Ahhhh nothing like the smell of fresh hypocrisy in the morning.

  16. confessions

    Again why do you care? The Greens are the Greens and are going to do what the Greens do. In this case that will counteract the scare campaign from the right.

  17. [Also that there was some high-dudgeon and shock-horror (that Windsor should be so, ahem, political about it, and this meant he wasn’t really a “noble Independent” thinking only of the good of the nation at all etc.) expressed by certain journalists and Abbott at this blunt statement.]

    I have a similar recollection. There was also the mocking of O’s 20 minute explanation for his choice – truly infantile by (from memory) OO journos at the time.

    The msm had the chance back then to take O and W at their word and hound out the truth, but instead squibbed it with fawning adoration for Tony. I have no sympathy.

  18. bemused

    Are you referring to the hyoocrisy now of Hartcher, compared to this piece he wrote back In Nov 2010

    [Should Labor switch to Gillard? “It certainly wouldn’t be worse.” But he didn’t think it would happen. Gillard was not running. “She’s being loyal,” Richardson told The Sunday Telegraph in comments published on June 20, three days before the coup.
    He was not speculating. Some of the faceless men had approached her, urging her to run, and met resistance. This was the third prerequisite for a challenge – a challenger. And Rudd was safe as long as Gillard was immovable.
    When the last ready chance to depose Rudd, the Tuesday caucus meeting, arrived, it passed without incident. It seemed to be all over. Rudd would lead Labor to the election – expected in about four months.
    But Gillard’s principal numbers man, Kim Carr, who as industry minister was also a member of the Rudd cabinet, heard word that the NSW Right was determined to destroy Rudd regardless of the obstacles – that there was no challenger and only two sitting days remaining, and that Gillard was not showing any sign of changing her mind.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/the-call-that-rolled-rudd-20101126-18ajm.html#ixzz2AS1Iccti

  19. After a little more research – Bruce and Scullin were both childless and Watson had a single child late in life long after his retirement ( she was still alive and living in the family home a few years ago).

    Bruce’s failure to produce an heir led to his peerage becoming extinct.

  20. confessions
    Posted Saturday, October 27, 2012 at 10:21 am | Permalink

    [ The PM has decided to burn political capital getting more water for the murray, what more do the want?

    If a mainstream party like Labor can deliver environmental benefits, why do we need the Greens? These ideological fixations the Greens have at the expense of pragmatic solutions make them look like children playing at being adults.]

    In my view the greens have two choices, support the PM as best they can, or say she is not doing enough. If they go for the latter and she fails to get a deal the greens will be held just as responsible as the Liberals.

    It is only by luck the nation get a second bite at the carbon trading scheme, we would be very lucky if we get a second chance at the Murry.

    In my view, if played badly, this could sink the greens.

  21. confessions

    The reality is the Greens are doing some public grandstanding to try and make the most of their position to achieve the most from their policy point of view. At the bargaining table reality bites.
    PMJG and Senator Milne have come to good policy outcomes before. Not just the climate policy. They will again.
    Attacking the Greens does not help to negotiate. Just ask lib leader Zed in the ACT.

  22. Bemused:

    [So Atkins has been backgrounded?
    Goodness me. I thought Julia and her acolytes didn’t do such things. 😆
    Ahhhh nothing like the smell of fresh hypocrisy in the morning.]

    Even for you, that is a particularly moronic statement.

  23. [The PM has decided to burn political capital getting more water for the murray, what more do the want?]

    Can you burn political capital using water as fuel?

  24. [Bushfire Bill
    Posted Saturday, October 27, 2012 at 10:36 am | Permalink

    The PM has decided to burn political capital getting more water for the murray, what more do the want?

    Can you burn political capital using water as fuel?]

    Perhaps that is why a solution for the Murray will never be forth coming.

  25. One for BK’s “From the land of the Free” section.
    [Can the company fire you for the way you vote?

    Very likely, yes. When it comes to employees’ political views, the free market, not free speech, is the power that rules America

    …..In Ohio, coal mine owner Robert Murray left employees in no doubt that they were expected to attend a Romney rally – off the clock and without pay. In Cuba, at least they pay workers for show demonstrations.

    Democrats are apoplectic. But as Romney assured those who have the power to hire and fire thousands of people, there is “nothing illegal about you talking to your employees about what you believe is best for the business”. He’s right. Heavy-handed? Yes. An abuse of authority? Probably. Against the law? Not likely]
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/oct/26/can-company-fire-you-for-way-you-vote

  26. “@vexnews: Julia Gillard: Why I had to save the Murray http://t.co/KGbNt9km #saparli #auspol #MDBP”

    Saving the Murray, Helping save planet from climate change. Building infrastructure in what is known as nation building.

    A truly great Labor Prime Minister. No wonder the Conservatives hate her.

  27. bemused,

    I do not pay much attention to your posts as I find you to be a real prat.

    However, I will not sit back and be accused of hypocrisy.

    You refuse to see what is staring you in the face. Journos and others who were at the coal face at the time continue to confirm that JG did not plot.

    You refuse to admit that and continue to go on and on about Rudd.

    Get over it for the sake of everyone.

    Mckew has interviewed 3 Rudd supporters ( including Rudd ) and no one else.

    Barrie Cassidy, Hartcher ( two years ago ), Richardson and now Dennis Atkins have confirmed what happened yet you rely on and cling to the rambles of one ex pollie who did one three year term, got done and now blames the world for her problems.

    Move on, the King is dead long live the queen.

    I have no interest in Rudd v Gillard, the whole topic is done and dusted but I refuse to sit back and see the crap written by some has been in any way derail the progress of labor without pointing out to rubbish labor supporters what the majority of those in the know continue to say.

    BTW, even if the hypocrisy statement was not directed at me I still find you be a prat.

    BTW, if anyone pops up to remind me everyone is allowed their own opinion etc etc etc, I agree. Post away. I have just expressed mine.

    Move on, get loyal and join the fight.

  28. Has Gillard ever said she has made a deliberate decision not to have children? I can’t recall one. It’s possible she hasn’t been able to have kids which would make the criticism of not having kids even more appalling than it already is.

  29. Dio:

    I’m of the view that these days attacking someone for being childless repels more voters than it attracts. There are so many couples I know of my age trying to conceive, and I know they wouldn’t take too kindly to being sneered at by a bully-boy thug like Abbott.

  30. [Mckew has interviewed 3 Rudd supporters ( including Rudd ) and no one else.]

    The question is, which one is bemused, or is there a forth supporter?

  31. Doyley,
    Noble sentiments. However I fear bemused lives his life to take cheap shots, and feel smug and superior to those of us who wear our support of Julia Gillard on our sleeves.
    As he so often reminds us, he is a veteran of the Labor Party. Says it all about him, really.
    Sometimes bemused can be OK. However it always seems but a brief interlude to having another smarmy crack at someone who will not fall into line with him.

    What’s that line from a song?

    ‘It’s a sad, sad situation, and it’s getting more absurd’.

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