Gilmore covers a stretch of southern coastal New South Wales, starting in the north with Shellharbour and Kiama at the southern tip of the Illawarra, and extending southwards through Nowra to Ulladulla. According to the 2011 census results, Gilmore has the equal second highest median age out of the 150 House of Representatives electorates, along with the fifteenth lowest median family income. Such is its combination of urban Labor and conservative rural areas that it is actually the wealthier areas where support for Labor is the strongest.
Labor has only won the seat once since its creation in 1984, and has trod water electorally despite very favourable redistributions in 1993 and 2010. Both involved the addition of territory in the Illawarra, most recently with a gain of 20,000 voters around Shellharbour to counter-balance the transfer of the Batemans Bay area to Eden-Monaro. That turned a Liberal margin from the 2007 election of 4.1% into a notional Labor margin of 0.4%, but the Liberals easily retained the seat on the back of a 5.7% swing. This was especially concentrated in the Illawarra booths, where margins that had been inflated by a working class backlash against WorkChoices in 2007 were slashed by around 10%.
Gilmore originally extended deep inland through Goulburn to Young and Cowra, and was held for the Nationals by John Sharp from 1984 to 1993. Sharp moved to Hume after the Nationals-voting interior areas were transferred to it in 1993. Gilmore absorbed Labor-voting Kiama in exchange, which made Labor competitive for the first time and further weakened the Nationals relative to the Liberals. A 1.1% swing to Labor at the 1993 election saw their candidate Peter Knott emerge a surprise winner, with the Nationals only able to poll 5.1%. The Nationals left the field clear for the Liberals at the 1996 election, at which Knott’s 0.5% margin was obliterated by a swing of 6.7%.
The incoming Liberal member was Joanna Gash, a Wingecarribee councillor who had been hand-picked by the party’s state executive to target what at the time was a key front-line seat. Despite retaining a fairly low profile nationally, Gash achieved strong electoral performances both in 1998, where a swing to Labor of 2.2% compared with a statewide result of 4.1%, and especially at the 2001 election, at which a swing in her favour of 10.1% was the biggest in the country. Labor’s candidate on that occasion was Peter Knott, attempting a comeback two elections after his defeat in 1996, who was reckoned to have aided the Liberal cause by asserting American foreign policy had “come back to bite them” in the immediate aftermath of the September 11 attacks. Further evidence for the Knott effect was provided by the 4.6% correction in Labor’s favour in 2004. Labor picked up a further 5.3% swing in 2007, roughly in line with the state average, which reduced Gash’s margin to 4.1%.
In January 2012 Gash announced she would be scaling back her political career by running for mayor of Shoalhaven in the September local government election, at which she was duly succeeded with 63.2% of the vote, and bowing out of federal politics after serving out her term. Gash’s simultaneous performance of both roles in the interim had internal critics calling for the newly introduced regime excluding state parliamentarians from serving in local government to be extended to the federal sphere. George Williams, University of New South Wales law professor and unsuccessful Labor preselection candidate, further raised concerns that doing so might fall foul of the Constitution’s injunction that federal members must not hold an “office of profit under the Crown”.
The new Liberal candidate is Ann Sudmalis, a former Kiama councillor and staffer to Gash who won a fiercely contested April 2012 preselection with the backing of her old boss. Opposing Sudmalis was Andrew Guile, a Shoalhaven councillor and education administrator who was supported by Kiama MP and factional moderate Gareth Ward. Guile had also once been a staffer to Gash, but the two had since fallen out. Sudmalis prevailed at the preselection vote with the support of 16 delegates against 10 for Guile, along with four for Grant Schultz, Ulladulla resident and son of Hume MP Alby Schultz, and one for Catherine Shields, a marketing consultant from Meroo Meadow. Guile went on to run against Gash in the mayoral election but polled only 5.7%, while still retaining his ward seat.
Labor’s candidate for the third successive election will be local party activist Neil Reilly, who was preselected unopposed. Reilly was initially rebuffed by the party’s national executive before the 2010 election, which rejected his endorsement by local branches and installed former South Sydney rugby league player David Boyle. However, fierce local resistance to the move prompted Boyle to withdraw. The Nationals threatened to field a candidate as it positioned itself for coalition negotiations, with the highly visible former rock singer Gary “Angry” Anderson mentioned as a potential contender, but the arrangement eventually reached has left the seat vacant for the Liberals.
confessions
If you go to the previous thread and check out the morning’s contributions by me on the topic of Latika, you will get a sense of it. I was more than a little miffed about it. I also got annoyed with Spur. Latika is a fraud unfortunately
Well it looks like Peter Hartcher is now sharing a crack pipe with Geoff Kitney. After GKs column in the AFR last weekend; the one which riffed on Hartcher’s “the PM blew it – we expected better” narrative by drawing (a very very long bow) for comparison with the Little Master(bater) PH must have liked what he read so much he popped around to GK’s cubicle for some chemical ‘inspiration’. Indeed he appears to have returned serve with interest.
So how much further into his drug-induced dementia will GK plunge to find a story that can match PH’s latest foray. Will he do it? Will he call for the return of the LM and the golden age when men were men and leaders were men, and they never disappointed us, and newspapers had circulation?
@julieposetti: How would Australian political coverage differ if news orgs rotated their journalists through the Press Gallery as they do foreign postings?
victoria,
I wonder if Christian realises that the hits his video is getting is because we are laughing at him and not agreeing with him?
I told Christian not to take the job at The Australian and to stay at Crikey, but the money Murdoch lured him away with was just too great to turn down for a man just recently married and with a kid on the way. Plus, he is an old, old friend of Christopher Pyne from SA. It’s such a pity because Christian IS a good journalist and political analyst in the right environment.
c@tmomma
kerr’s pronouncements re the JG speech are just plain embarrassing for him
MarkWW
Posted Saturday, October 20, 2012 at 9:50 am | Permalink
Well it looks like Peter Hartcher is now sharing a crack pipe with Geoff Kitney. After GKs column in the AFR last weekend;
———————————————————-
Why doesnt that surprised me Harther still hasnt come out of his 1 week behind everyone else slump
“@CarbonTaxFan: 2 MILLION VIEWS!!! 2MILLION VIEWS!!! 2 MILLION VIEWS!!! 2 MILLION VIEWS!!! PM JULIA GILLARD IS A HIT!!! http://t.co/zMLPTMwy #auspol #alp”
[A leading Perth chief executive has questioned the work ethic of younger generations, noting they were “obsessed” about having adequate leisure.
In comments that echo the thoughts of some company heads who are hiring Generation Y, Perth Wildcats chief executive Nick Marvin said the heavy focus which young employees placed on “work-life balance” was affecting the efficiency of businesses.
“I am not sure you can be extremely productive as well as have work-life balance throughout your whole life,” Mr Marvin said at the latest _WestBusiness _/Australian Institute of Management WA CEO Voice boardroom lunch.]
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/wa/15168460/gen-y-obsessed-with-leisure-time-ceo/
Where do they find these dinosaurs? What an unbelievably myopic view of young people!
victoria:
Latika is an excellent example of the press gallery groupthink.
@Diddoms: @julieposetti I don’t bother reading The Australian anymore. I just read @rupertmurdoch ‘s Tweets. Say same thing in under 140 characters
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=sNGZil616ug#!
now this is how to campaign!!!
victoria,
Sad really. Christian is a nice person in the wrong environment. He has issues of self-worth which would see him easily dominated by powerful characters.
confessions
If you are interested. Page 74 comment 3656
As George M points out, what’s significant about the number of views of the PM’s speech is that politicians don’t normally attract that kind of coverage.
I doubt even a televised ‘address to the nation’ would (unless it was a declaration of war or similar).
confessions
perhaps you should ask those that employ
some are wanting just that,, they dont want to take their turn re weekends and complain if someone is sick and they have to come in,
they want their holidays when they want them doesnt matter what the owner want s who has worked in his business 24 hours a day, no they come first, even if their boss is a very good boss.
ITS NOT ALL OF THEM OF COUrse but i hear this story often.
the work ethic is not ingrained it comes from the home.
like school behaviour
Nbn connections per day is quoted at 6000 per day. It’s currently around 5 per day. Bill I think you have the rear end crosstalk thing happening again.
Nbn connections per day is quoted at 6000 per day. It’s currently around 5 per day. Bill I think you have the rear end crosstalk thing happening again.
@sem4peter: @rupertmurdoch @Colvinius Murdoch – This man is showing some desperation to remain relevant.
Victoria:
I don’t think it matters all that much where newspapers place articles. All they can do with a massive Slipper of Thomson headline is draw people’s attention to the issue. They can’t really influence the conclusions people draw from it.
First time around, when Ashby pressed charges on Slipper and Slipper stepped down from Speaker’s duties, everyone went “Wow!” Then they waited for a while to see what was going to happen. Then not a lot happened, so they moved on to think about other stuff. The minute they moved on, the Slipper story lost all of its bite. it required new revelations to keep it alive, but there weren’t any. i think by now most people are annoyed that they’ve been taken in by it. They don’t care how it plays out or who wins, it’s no longer interesting. No front page screaming headline is going to alter that.
Same with Thomson. Same with Rudd. And it’ll be the same thing if Margie gets hauled in front of the media again. Or, for that matter, if Gillard goes Abbott in Parliament again.
And, most crucially, with all policy and economy issues. The only thing that will stop that gradual shift back to the ALP in the polls is a massive and sudden shift in the narrative. People are less-disposed to go along with Coalition scare-mongering, and less inspired to criticise the ALP seeing as things have been going along pretty well. They believed all that gloomy talk once, and they got sucked in. Next time around, they won’t care.
Thanks victoria.
As I said: groupthink. They can’t view politics in any way other than horse race, he-said-she-said stuff. It’s pathetic.
http://www.zdnet.com/au/nbn-to-connect-another-165800-premises-7000005738/
he government-owned network builder NBN Co is on target to have completed or begun construction on 758,000 premises by the end of 2012, Conroy said in a statement.
my say:
People who balance their work and life are more likely to be more productive at work. What these CEOs really seem to be suggesting is that businesses should reduce the amount of leave entitlements for staff.
Conroy said…
page 38 the un story here
one wonders if it was JHW days would it of been front page
news.,
MarkWW@102
My respect for Peter Hartcher has been on the wane for quite a while and his piece today in SMH finally destroyed it completely. From his attempt to prop up Rudd comeback rumours (note: I have nothing against Rudd, I just don’t think he is the best person to lead Labor and this country at this time), his repeated effort to attack the PM, his uneducated rubbish about Chinese instability (I don’t disagree with his conclusion that Australia shouldn’t rely too heavily on China, his reasoning though is off) to today’s opinion. Gillard is trying to be JWH? Really? Unsurprisingly what he offered as evidence in support is extremely thin.
SMH was the only newspaper during Howard’s era that offers unbiased and sophiscated opinion and straight reporting. Now it is only interested in gotcha bullsh1t, simplification to the point of idiocy and cheap spectacle. What on earth happened to the once great publication? Why on earth does it try to be a second rate Daily Telegraph? And is it any wonder it is haemorrhaging readership?
[New2This
Posted Saturday, October 20, 2012 at 9:59 am | Permalink
Nbn connections per day is quoted at 6000 per day. It’s currently around 5 per day. Bill I think you have the rear end crosstalk thing happening again.]
If that was the case then the NBN would not be a threat to Murdocks empire, and we wouldn’t be watching Murdock last throw of the dice.
It’s been pretty obvious for a long time that the next election was going to be a race between the declining influence of the main stream press and the election date.
Abbott has failed to form government, failed to get the election date brought forward and failed to get legislation stopped.
Poor Murdock must be seriously upset that he has to try and get “the failure’ across the line, pretty upset that his print empire’s rate of decline is being increased with the printing of pages of drivel to try and save Abbott’s skin.
And what is New2This plaintive words cast into wind, there is only 5 connections a day.
[People who balance their work and life are more likely to be more productive at work. What these CEOs really seem to be suggesting is that businesses should reduce the amount of leave entitlements for st]
i the statement above of course is of course,
not what i am agreeing with, of course,
but i do think some young people with their attitude to work are their own worse enemny.
as i said not all of them but wanting a sat off to go to a youth concert seems more important to some
than earning double time at work
i remember putting my name forward for christmas and easter to get double pay.
just so i could buy somthing worth while or save.,
what they want now seems to be more important
“@DocTwon: The Australian newspaper attacking gays? Shut that shit sheet down. Can u tell its the older brother of the daily tele?”
lizzie@38
A pity she didn’t get into journalism and spare us her ineffectiveness as a Minister.
[what they want now seems to be more important]
Which is as it should be, and how I imagine it’s always been.
Changing demographics mean an evolving workforce, which means businesses will have to adapt if they are to attract good staff. Hectoring younger generations for being self indulgent seems an entirely counter-productive strategy to me.
If I am to take the suggestion of ‘only 5 connections per day’ seriously(and I can only read what others are posting as the troll is on my stfu list), I would say that N2T is attempting a pea and thimble trick of questioning the number of NBN connections, ie to homes who haven’t, as yet, joined an NBN ISP plan, by conflating & confusing it with the number who have ‘connected’ to the NBN via an ISP.
Don’t believe the N2T hype. Houses are being connected to the NBN at the rate given. Whether they can take it up just yet is a function of their contract with their ISP, in the main. Or lack of awareness as to what is sitting outside their door.
[Did you see the video comments by Christian Kerr of the Oz during last week re the speech?]
Yes, and it did nothing positive to my already very low opinion of him!
my say@44
Do you really imagine Ministerial staff don’t keep tabs on such things?
Judging by all of your calls, I suspect you figure high up on a list of nuisance callers to be ignored.
Oh look…bemused is having a ‘be snarky to women day’.
Again.
bemused: Cheer up – it’s Saturday and sunny (and the Libs and Greens are going to have their ar#es kicked in the ACT).
New2This@117
Bit early to be tossing the burley out, I would suggest to do some decent trolling you would be better off coming back later when there are more bludgers here.
my say@74
Great news about George.
I can’t believe a year has passed already.
Best wishes to him and his family. I hope he has a great birthday party.
[To jump over Rupert’s paywall copy the web address of the article and paste it into google and search. Just click on the search result and you are over the paywall.]
Thanks, poroti. (Been shopping.)
With the pullout of sponsors I hope the UCI shortens the Tour De France Tour. Need to take drugs attributed to that. I do want the Tour to survive. I too enjoy watching it.
Mod Lib@111
Brilliant stuff Mod.
Do we have any Australian politicians who can speak like that? I struggle to think of any.
Bemused,
You’re a mixture of
a) kindness, insightfullness, droll wit …
b) sarcasm, pomposity, tease and torment …
That picture of The Rodent on the top of the SMH page this morning drove me away in a hurry. Not something I wanted to see at all. It reminded me of my reaction when the Fibs dragged Howard out during the 2010 election campaign. Just hearing that voice made me understand exactly how Doctor Who must feel whenever he is suddenly confronted by an unexpected Dalek.
China wasting no time in trying to tell Australia what we should or shouldn’t do.
Very poor form China – yet again showing just how quick they will be to throw their weight around.
And poor old hugh white always looking way to put the boot in. Whatever Labor do, his angle will be they should have done the opposite. Another feather duster…..
[ Australia’s successful bid for a non-permanent seat on the United Nations’ Security Council could come with diplomatic strings attached, as Chinese officials have indicated that Beijing expects Australia to reduce its pro-America approach on the Security Council, according to The Australian Financial Review.
The warning suggests the euphoria over Australia holding a seat on the powerful UN body for the first time since 1986 could come with some baggage attached if it forces Australia to side with China or the US in sensitive international disputes where the two world powers take opposing positions.
“The seat on the Security Council is another way to show Australia’s independence when it comes to foreign policy,” said Wang Zhenyu, a scholar with the China Institute of International Studies, which operates under the auspices of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, according to the AFR.
…After the victory, Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard said that Australia’s term on the Security Council would not hurt its relationship with either the US or China, despite the fact that both — as permanent members of the Security Council — often clash on international issues.
“We stand today with a strong defence alliance with the United States which is understood and known in our region … we didn’t sneak up on anybody,” she said, according to the AFR. “It has been known for decades and decades. And we have a robust relationship with China … we are engaged with China deeply at every level.”
Australian National University-based defence analyst Hugh White reportedly said that the Security Council seat was “always going to be more of a liability than an asset” and would present “all sorts of issues you wouldn’t normally adopt a position on”, the AFR reported. ]
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Aust-shouldnt-side-with-US-on-Security-Council-Chi-pd20121019-Z8QN9?OpenDocument&src=hp2
zoomster@133
So because Bronwyn Pike was ineffective, her gender should protect her from any criticism?
my say
Loved your description of George. My very best wishes to him for his birthday, I hope you all have a wonderful day.
@MailOnline: BREAKING NEWS: Chief Whip Andrew Mitchell resigns http://t.co/sinxEVts
leone@141
hartchers follow up article will demand a recount of the 2007 election, including previously uncounted ballot papers in the seat of bennelong.
My daughter tells me that in the UK current thought on Scotland becoming independent is that, if it happens, the first thing the new Scottish regime should do is award a ‘gong’ to ‘Dave’ for his unstinting efforts to convince people that Alex Salmond is not all that bad.
😆
gigi@140
Thank you for the free character analysis. 😛
Maybe I call things as I see them and am responding to my perceptions of things.
I do try to avoid your category b except when responding to those I perceive as particularly deserving such as the ‘New2This’ types. 😀
[It reminded me of my reaction when the Fibs dragged Howard out during the 2010 election campaign.]
I’m hoping they do the same again next year, although it’s likely he won’t show up.