Seat of the week: Lilley

Wayne Swan’s electorate of Lilley covers the Brisbane bayside north-east of the city centre, between the Brisbane and Pine rivers – an area accounting for industrial Eagle Farm in the south and residential Brighton in the north – along with suburbs nearer the city from McDowall, Stafford Heights and Everton Park eastwards through Kedron, Chermside and Zillmere to Nundah, Nudgee and Taigum. The redistribution before the 2010 election had a substantial impact on the electorate, adding 26,000 in Chermside West and Stafford Heights at the northern end (from Petrie) and removing a similar number of voters in an area from Clayfield and Hendra south to Hamilton on the river (to Brisbane), but the margin was little affected.

Lilley was created in 1913, originally extending from its current base of Nudgee, Aspley, Kedron, Eagle Farm and Brisbane Airport all the way north to Gympie. It did not become entirely urban until the enlargement of parliament in 1949, when Petrie was created to accommodate what were then Brisbane’s semi-rural outskirts. Labor won Lilley in 1943, 1946, 1961 and 1972 (by a margin of 35 votes on the latter occasion), but otherwise it was usually safe for the prevailing conservative forces of the day. A decisive shift came with the elections of 1980 and 1983, when Labor’s Elaine Darling won and then consolidated the seat with respective swings of 5.2% and 8.4%.

Wayne Swan succeeded Darling as the Labor member in 1993, but like all but two of his Queensland Labor colleagues he lost his seat in 1996. Swan stood again in 1998 and accounted for the 0.4% post-redistribution margin with a swing of 3.5%. He added further fat to his margin at the each of the next three elections, although in keeping with the inner urban trend his swing in 2007 was well below the statewide average (3.2% compared with 7.5%). The 2010 election delivered the LNP a swing of 4.8% that compared with a statewide result of 5.5%, bringing the seat well into the marginal zone at 3.2%.

Swan’s path into politics began as an adviser to Bill Hayden during his tenure as Opposition Leader and later to Hawke government ministers Mick Young and Kim Beazley, before he took on the position of Queensland party secretary in 1991. He was elevated to the shadow ministry after recovering his seat in 1998, taking on the family and community services portfolio, and remained close to former boss Beazley. Mark Latham famously described Swan and his associates as “roosters” when Beazley conspired to recover the leadership in 2003, but nonetheless retained him in his existing position during his own tenure in the leadership. Swan was further promoted to the Treasury portfolio after the 2004 election defeat, which he retained in government despite suggestions Rudd had been promised the position to Lindsay Tanner in return for his support when he toppled Kim Beazley as leader in December 2006.

Although he went to high school with him in Nambour and shared a party background during the Wayne Goss years, Swan has long been a bitter rival of Kevin Rudd, the former emerging as part of the AWU grouping of the Right and the latter with the Right’s “old guard”. He was in the camp opposing Rudd at successive leadership challenges, including Rudd’s successful challenge against Beazley, his toppling by Julia Gillard in June 2010, and most recently when he sought to recover the leadership in February 2012, when Swan accused Rudd of “sabotaging policy announcements and undermining our substantial economic successes”. Swan succeeded Gillard as deputy upon her ascension to the prime ministership.

Swan’s LNP opponent for the second consecutive election will be Rod McGarvie, a former soldier and United Nations peacekeeper. McGarvie won a July preselection vote from a field which included John Cotter, GasFields commissioner and former head of agriculture lobby group AgForce, and Bill Gollan, owner of a Deagon car dealership.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,173 comments on “Seat of the week: Lilley”

Comments Page 8 of 44
1 7 8 9 44
  1. Bushfire back at 246
    [There are probably more, but Abbott, Joyce (both Riverview) and Hockey (St. Aloysius) at least come from the Sydney-based Jesuit background.]
    Of course, there is Christopher Pyne from St Ignatius Adelaide.

    And that wonderfully handy Jesuit concept of mental reservation 😉

  2. GG,

    “Qld Treasurer says 6000 fewer jobs will go because he’s found other savings like photocopying on both sides of the paper @abcnews Qld 7 pm”

    And we’re supposed to believe that, I think it has more to do with the fact that they were busted with a bogus Audit complements of a bogus ex treasurer collecting a fat pay check.

  3. leone @ 329

    Another loud-mouth HTV hander-outer story.

    No 1 son has been on handing-out duty today. He just dropped in and asked if I’d like to have a go at shutting up some idiot woman who is handing out Labor HTV cards. Apparently this f-wit is racing up to all the female voters and telling them to ‘vote for all the women because we need women on council’. It seems to have escaped her notice that a good many of the female candidates are not Labor friendly. She’s supposed to be supporting her party, not touting votes for the opposition.

    I declined his invitation, I voted days ago and I’m not going back.

    There is a bit of that mindset on PB at times.

  4. IMOHO

    I’m not making a judgment on Turnbull’s integrity or compassion, I’m just saying that he has a better sense than Abbott of what is appropriate and what isn’t. Abbott in his time as LOTO has dragged the level of public discourse down further than was the case when Turnbull was LOTO.

  5. GG,

    Only one sheet at a time double sided or else your docked :), just been reading the comments on the CM website Newmans getting an absolute flogging

  6. Augustus,

    I presume it’s that same crowd that gave him such a whopping majority that are now not enjoying the hangover.

  7. Not sure whether Abbott will try to politicise JG’s loss.
    Bloody sure it’s under consideration.
    What may happen is a deliberately conciliatory speech from him followed up by a supporting blitz as to what a nice guy he is, which is why he couldn’t possibly have done all that stuff at uni, or…

  8. GG,

    Suspect a classic case of Caveat emptor, we was sold faulty goods and no way of getting our money back, bit like online shopping really.

  9. My HTV story is of Old Jim, one of Nature’s true gentlemen, and his dog, Davey.

    He was handing out HTVs for the Greens, with Davey sitting alongside him patiently wishing he was somewhere else.

    A lovely old bloke is Jim. To tell the truth I thought he may have passed away (as his wife did last year), as I hadn’t seen him for a while, but there he was, a little bewildered but smiling as always, with his dapper houndstooth cloth cap on his head, doling out the HTVs like a trooper, from his fold-up chair.

    It’s the first time I’ve ever got to pat Davey, because my Bob and Jim’s Davey “don’t get on”. They once had a dog fight that was broken up by the humans, but to the pooches remains “unfinished business”, with no clear winner.

    It happened like this… Davey saw Bob and me walking by, slipped between Jim’s legs at the front door as Jim opened it, and came out like a bullet after Bob, who didn’t see him coming.

    It was on.

    Jim thought it was funny, but Jim doesn’t know Bob. Bob fights to the death. He’s six kilos of concentrated hatred when it comes to other dogs.

    I was so happy today to see Jim alive, around and happy, and to actually get to pat Davey for the first time (without Bob to muck up the proceedings), that I took Jim’s Greens HTV and duly voted for them.

    Up against the usual portrait gallery of spivs, shonks, real estate agents, developers, shysters, lurk merchants and poonces that usually stand for local government, the Greens lady looked kind and straightforward. It wasn’t a difficult choice.

    No-one from Labor stands (it IS Beecroft, after all), so the Greens were the best thing.

    On’ya Jim. You’re a good soul.

    On’ya Davey. But next time Bob’ll get you when you’re not looking. See how you like being bitten on the bum then.

  10. bemused
    [There is a bit of that mindset on PB at times.]
    There sure is. We’re all with the PM over the loss of her father.

    Since 2.48pm, when William informed us, you have said nothing.
    Speaks volumes about you.

  11. [MEDIA RELEASE

    For release: Saturday, September 8, 2012

    The ACL has politely declined Beyondblue chairman Jeff Kennett’s offer to replace the Prime Minister at its National Conference.

    Mr Wallace said Mr Kennett had also been the victim of aggressive gay activist bullying after he wrote a column in the Herald Sun saying: “there is no substitute for parents of both genders”.]
    The bunch of religious rightwing whackos are just using this as an excuse. The real reason is that Kennett, a rightwing wacko himself, is boring as bats..t.

  12. I thought this was a bit low from someone representing the Fairfax regional media

    Greg Boardley ‏@GregBoardley

    she is Russian home before they are Putin him in the ground

  13. GG @ 345

    bemused,

    Like an electric helicopter that uses a very long extension cord?

    No, Wi-fi has a limited coverage for each access point so an office building for example will have many accesspoints to give coverate throughout the building. It is not mobile coverage. For that you really do need 3G or 4G.

    BTW, that vividwireless has very limited coverage and is quite expensive. It does not cover Greensborough.

  14. The Qld budget will be a doozy – how will Newman explain the increased deficit?

    All costs related to paying out public servants will be including in the 2012-13 figures.

    Nicholls has said each Public Servant sacked has an average of 18 months pay due. So this means the Govt has paid $1.25 billion in redundancy payments, plus its $5 billion election promises, plus electicity price freezes, its under estimated rego fee freeze.

    The spin and twists will be exquisite as they try to worm their way out of self induced problems – or maybe all promises are now non-core.

  15. I was so lucky to be able to nurse my father. He passed away on Good Friday, 2009.

    Each Father’s Day, let alone each anniversary, is a sad reminder of what I’ve lost.

    For JG not to be able to visit her dad regularly because of her job, and not to be there at the end, and thinking of the love and regard she obviously felt for him, this will be the most terrible wrench.

    RIP Mr Gillard.

    And condolences to our most fantastic PM.

  16. our fathers are special no matter their age.

    thinking of you PM Julia Gillard.
    we love and respect you and are so so grateful you are our PM

    thinking of your Mum your sister and her family also.

  17. kezza2 @ 363

    There sure is. We’re all with the PM over the loss of her father.

    Since 2.48pm, when William informed us, you have said nothing.
    Speaks volumes about you.

    There you go, politicising it just like TA would.

    I don’t expect JG to read PB so there is not much point in posting condolences here.

    Having experience loss and grief my thoughts are naturally with her. You didn’t really need to be told that did you?

    You become more of a grub each day.

  18. bemused

    how can I be politicising the death of JG’s father if she doesn’t read PB?

    Just an excuse for your lack of care for a PM you don’t appreciate.

  19. IMOHO @ 303 Interestingly I thought most respect was immediately shown by the Australian which first broke the news referring to ‘the Prime Minister’ and using her full name. Just returned to the thread here to see some of the worst lapses in courtesy since then.

    Meanwhile I’ve been trying to refresh my memories of the joy and pride expressed by John and Moira Gillard in having their daughter become the Prime Minister of their adopted country. Right now though I can only feel great sympathy for Julia Gillard and have followed the practical advice of NormanK over at TPS to express that by e-mail to her at http://www.pm.gov.au/contact-your-pm

    What is it about bemused? He seems infuriatingly unaware of anything going on in the world outside his immediate obsessive train of thought. Are we sure that photo isn’t really of him?

  20. guess who he tweeted this comment to?

    [Greg Boardley @GregBoardley 2h
    @latikambourke @KarenMMiddleton she is Russian home before they are Putin him in the ground]
    View conversation ·

  21. kezza2 @ 382

    bemused

    how can I be politicising the death of JG’s father if she doesn’t read PB?

    Just an excuse for your lack of care for a PM you don’t appreciate.

    You are disgusting.

    I would feel sympathy with anyone at the loss of their father or any other close relative.

  22. Kezza and all,

    Ms Gillard will think of her father whenever she looks in a mirror – she is clearly a chip off the old block – and like him (as well as her mother) in many other respects.

  23. Surely there is no need to berate posters for not expressing formal condolences through this forum, or any other? So long as people are not being awful about it, which no-one here seems to be.

  24. My father passed away in ’94, sadly as result of family breakdown, I never really got to know him from the age of 7 this was hard as we used to fishing together all the time. But now as a step father I have made sure that the children and their father do maintain contact even when they are not talking to each other and do not interfere in their relationship.

  25. PatriciaWA @ 383

    What is it about bemused? He seems infuriatingly unaware of anything going on in the world outside his immediate obsessive train of thought. Are we sure that photo isn’t really of him?

    So you are just as bizarre as kezza2 in your thinking.

  26. John Gillard lived long enough to see his daughter become Prime Minister of Australia a proud father with a loving family – a lucky man. RIP.

  27. MsLaurie

    Absolutely agree with you @ 388. There is indeed no need to berate posters posters for not expressing formal condolences through this forum, or any other?

    This is not a time a point scoring.

  28. Kylie C ‏@KyliePC
    Note to Campbell Newman: 14000 sackings instead of 20000 is not ‘saving 6000 jobs’. It’s SACKING 14000 PEOPLE.

  29. bemused

    You have nothing to say about the PM on the loss of her dad. But heck anyone dare make a comment in any shape or form on Rudd, and you have a hell of a lot to say.

  30. My parents lived in Sydney and I live in Melbourne.
    I was unfortunately not present when they died but I was fortunate to visit my mother in hospital a few days before she died.

    When my father died, the response of the manager I was reporting to was to terminate my contract between the day my father died and his funeral. One of the classiest acts I have ever heard of.

Comments Page 8 of 44
1 7 8 9 44

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *