Update (3/9/12): Essential Research. The weekly Essential Research report has fallen into line with other pollsters in giving Labor its best result since March – up two on the primary vote to 34% and one on two-party preferred to 55-45. The Coalition is down a point to 48%, a result it last recorded in April. The poll has 52% thinking female politicians receive more criticism than men against only 4% less and 40% the same, and very similar results (51%, 6% and 38%) when the subject is narrowed to Julia Gillard specifically. A question on which groups would be better off under Labor or Liberal governments find traditional attitudes to the parties are as strong as ever, with wide gaps according to whether the group could be perceived as disadvantaged (pensioners, unemployed, disabled) or advantaged (high incomes, large corporations, families of private school children). Respondents continue to think it likely that a Coalition government would bring back laws similar to WorkChoices (51% likely against 25% unlikely).
Deakin is centred on the eastern Melbourne suburbs of Blackburn and Nunawading, extending eastwards along the Maroondah Highway to Ringwood and Croydon. At the time of its creation in 1937, it extended far beyond the city limits to Seymour and Mansfield, before gaining its wholly urban orientation in 1969 and assuming roughly its current dimensions when it lost Box Hill in 1977. A trend of increasing Liberal support as the electorate extends eastwards is better explained by diminishing ethnic diversity than by income: in its totality, the electorate is demographically unexceptional on all measures. The redistribution has cut the Labor margin from 2.4% to 0.6% by transferring 18,000 voters in the electorate’s south-western corner, at Blackburn South, Burwood East and Forest Hill, to Chisholm; adding 8000 voters immediately to the east of the aforementioned area, around Vermont South, from Aston; and adding another 10,000 voters around Croydon in the north-east, mostly from Casey but partly from Menzies.
For a seat that has been marginal for most of its history, Deakin has brought Labor remarkably little joy: prior to 2007 their only win was when the Hawke government came to power in 1983, and it was lost again when Hawke went to the polls early in December 1984. The seat presented a picture of electoral stability from 1984 to 2001, when Liberal margins ranged only from 0.7% to 2.5% (although the 1990 redistribution muffled the impact of a 4.3% Liberal swing). Julian Beale held the seat from 1984 until the 1990 election, when he successfully challenged controversial Bruce MP Ken Aldred for preselection after redistribution turned the 1.5% margin into a notional 1.9% margin for Labor. Aldred accepted the consolation prize of Deakin and was able to retain the seat on the back of a sweeping statewide swing to the Liberals. He was in turn unseated for preselection in 1996 by Phillip Barresi, who held the seat throughout the Howard years.
Barresi emerged from the 2004 election with a margin of 5.0%, the biggest the Liberals had known in the seat since 1977. The substantial swing required of Labor at the 2007 election was duly achieved with 1.4% to spare by Mike Symon, whose background as an official with the Left faction Electrical Trades Union had made him a target of Coalition barbs amid controversies surrounding union colleagues Dean Mighell and Kevin Harkins. Symon’s preselection had been achieved through a three-vote win over local general practitioner Peter Lynch, the candidate from 2004, who reportedly won the 50% local vote component before being rebuffed by the state party’s tightly factionalised Public Office Selection Committee. Andrew Crook of Crikey reported that Symon had backing from the Bill Shorten-Stephen Conroy Right as a quid pro quo for Left support for Peter McMullin’s unsuccessful bid for preselection in Corangamite. Symon was re-elected in 2010 with a 1.0% swing in the face of an attempt by Phillip Barresi to recover his old seat, which was perfectly in line with the statewide result. He was rated by one source as undecided as Kevin Rudd’s challenge to Julia Gillard’s leadership unfolded in February 2012, but soon fell in behind Gillard.
The Liberal candidate at the next election will be Michael Sukkar, a 30-year-old tax specialist with Ashurt, the law firm previously known as Blake Dawson. Sukkar emerged a surprise preselection winner over John Pesutto, a lawyer and Victorian government adviser said to be closely associated with Ted Baillieu. VexNews reported that also-ran candidates Phillip Fusco, Terry Barnes and Andrew Munroe were eliminated in that order, at which point Pesutto was in first place, state government staffer Michelle Frazer was second, and Sukkar and former Melbourne candidate Simon Olsen were tied for third. After winning a run-off against Olsen, Sukkar crucially managed to sneak ahead of Frazer, who unlike Sukkar would not have prevailed against Pesutto in the final round due to a view among Sukkar’s backers that she “wasn’t up to it”.
CTar1,
Put it this way, the ABS is very strong on reporting on our numbers.
http://www.apsc.gov.au/about-the-apsc/parliamentary/aps-statistical-bulletin/snapshots-december-2011/snapshots-b
Today I have finally come to the conclusion that journalism is one the way out. I would much prefer to listen to analysis from some of those on this blog than some of the idiots posing as journalists. I have been reading this blog for some time now, and have a pretty good idea on those that seem to know what they are talking about on particular issues – and if someone is talking BS there are normally plenty of others to call them on it. This blog plus twitter is my main stream news – coupled with ABC24 for live video feeds, I need nothing else.
poroti
[Intelligent men owe their brains to their mothers]
Ah, now you are making sense. It’s several genes, not all genes. Apparently situated in mitrochdrial DNA. Looks as if women have greater potential… Add in female’s superior ability to transmit between the two halves of the brain, and we’re really off and running.
As ducky says, that report is so last century 😉 We now discuss emotional intelligence as well.
We hear so much criticism here of the Liberal State government because of their job cuts and other budget savings;
but when you stuff up good and proper, leave it to Victorian State Labor.
How big a stuff up?
$1.2 billion worth.
Oh Ballieu has got a long, long way to go on that. 😆
Intersex means the person has biological features of both sexes.
Surely they have opened a market …
billie
[You didn’t think that racist xenophobia came cheap did you?]
I am not sure what racism or xenophobia has to do with costings but perhaps you could enlighten me as you seem to know all about it.
I do know that the Greens only ever do a smatter of costing activity in complete isolation from their overall budget black hole of $160 billion over twice forward estimates. It is usually in association with some hand-wringing over something that the Labor Government is doing.
So we get a classic Greens’ combination of holier-than-thou philosophy combined with magic pudding economics. I understand this gives them a warm inner glow.
poroti,
Thanks for providing evidence to support my claim to my OH that our kids are lucky they take after their mother!
Dio
Thanks. Do nipples count? (seriously)
Centre in Newman’s case the criticism is more about the process rather than the outcome. He has done a really ordinary job of explaining things and has lost more political capital than necessary.
Boerwar: it used to be called “hermaphrodite”: people whose gender lines are blurred.
Diog –
Well, as far as what the experts say:
Why is it that the PM (and the LOTO for that matter) have lined up so firmly behind the timetable for withdrawal etc provided by the military? I strongly doubt that Julia Gillard or Stephen Smith have any great desire to see troops in Afghanistan and to deal with the loss of life it entails.
ie I’d strongly believe that, if they were given a choice they would have ended the deployment years ago.
The only conclusion is that the politicians have been given very strong unequivocal advice from the ADF and Foreign Affairs that there are good reasons for sticking to the plan, and serious negatives to breaking with the plan, and hence the politicians are doing as they are told.
Presumably in the mix is both the status of things in Afghanistan, what commitments we have made to the government and other organizations there, what the likely outcomes are from withdrawal at various times and under various conditions, obviously our ‘obligations’ to the USA alliance etc.
I can easily imagine some very delicate assessments weighing up Australian loss of life and injuries against the likelihoods of particular possible outcomes for Afghanistan and its people. Not the kind of assessments that can be outlined in a nuanced way to the public – hence the simplistic statements from the PM and Defense minister.
Perhaps the advice the government is receiving is wrong. Perhaps it is based on incorrect assumptions or values. I don’t know, but I am sure that the government has been given strong advice from the relevant public servants and is following that advice. I don’t see that as being a bad thing, particularly as the current plan is for withdrawal over the next year; it’s not like there is any plan for staying in a combat capacity indefinitely. The current public arguments are over the timing (sooner rather than later), and as far as those arguments go, I’ll trust the ADF to manage that not public sentiment based on professional soldiers losing their lives.
Further, having outlined the plan for training the ANA and handing over security over the next year, I don’t understand why there’s such a complete disregard for sticking with what we’ve said we’ll do. Some soldiers die, tragic as it is, and we go all weak at the knees and say “oh we were going to do what we said we would, but it’s all gotten a bit inconvenient”.
I see lots of conflation of the arguments against going to Afghanistan and Iraq in the first place with what we should do now.
I was firmly of the opinion that both wars were not a good idea – Afghanistan because of the historically fraught nature of the interactions between outsiders and the tribes of Afghanistan, and Iraq because it was based on a lie – but having been taken into these conflicts the balance changes. It doesn’t logically follow that because we shouldn’t have gone there in the first place, therefore we must withdraw immediately. We are withdrawing. We are withdrawing according to a plan. There were always going to be casualties – the military accepted this as part of the plan, and they are the ones who bear that cost, but they do so knowing it’s part of the job they signed up for.
DL
Thanks. I had not made that link.
I am sure I have seen this posted a while back, but I would like to add my own voice. From a technical perspective, it would be good for the mobile version of the blog to have a link at the bottom of the comments page that goes to the next comments page, not the next thread as it currently is. It would also be good if links opened to new windows because sometimes we can’t backpage from certain sites to the PB page.
51% of people polled by Essential say PM Gillard getting more criticisms because she is female. Well, who would have thunk that
[That didn’t really help]
Your hemales and your shemales, as Shane MacGowan sung.
I remember hermaphrodites from the Foundation series of novels. Now that I understand.
davidwh
Liberal in the States and Labor at the Federal level.
It’s worth at least an election winning 1% swing to a different party in government from state to federal.
Good luck to the 1% of voters, they’re spot on!
Jackol
[I was firmly of the opinion that both wars were not a good idea – Afghanistan because of the historically fraught nature of the interactions between outsiders and the tribes of Afghanistan, and Iraq because it was based on a lie – but having been taken into these conflicts the balance changes. It doesn’t logically follow that because we shouldn’t have gone there in the first place, therefore we must withdraw immediately. We are withdrawing. We are withdrawing according to a plan. There were always going to be casualties – the military accepted this as part of the plan, and they are the ones who bear that cost, but they do so knowing it’s part of the job they signed up for.]
A good, reasonable post, IMHO, even if I disagree with a fair bit of it. Here are some follow-up responses:
(1)
thirdborn314
[and if someone is talking BS there are normally plenty of others to call them on it.]
Also good is the amount of collective memory that is on tap.
”She vowed she would not be ”held to ransom” by states who were not genuinely committed to reform. The states must contribute their ”fair share”, Gillard insisted, there was to be ”no sleight of hand, no fiddling of the books”.
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/pm-sets-scene-for-battle-with-states-20120903-259y0.html#ixzz25O20cRDU
Gillard is not held to ransom by the states. Gillard is held to ransom by a lack of cash. Anyway Gillard will not be PM when the money is required and Gonski will be Gonski in a year.
BB – when you’re around – has there been any comment on 2GB today about Alan Jones comments last Friday (PM & other women destroying the joint)?
poroti
Yes, I have noticed that. I am amazed at the longevity of some of the posters here, recalling statements from many years ago made by others. It definitely adds to the voracity of information being presented.
billie @ 1479
[And the head hunters doing the filtering do not know what they are looking for. They look for specific attributes and it’s up to the job applicant to tailor their resume to the job. Unfortunately the head hunters keep the resume on file for 12 months or more so the job seeker can’t submit a changed resume for another job.]
Sounds like we are sharing some experiences.
If you are interested in swapping information, get in touch through William.
Jackol
The defense forces ALWAYS say they just need more time and resources.
[I noticed a lot of male journos were complaining that PMJG did not cry during the Brissie floods – how dare she not, how dare she not show compassion for those people at times of high emotion. ]
BH
I do note that Yes Gillard did not cry during the floods and thats ok. However Gillard did shed a tear while talking about man landing on the moon in the USA.
thirdborn314,
We are a voracious and veracious lot.
People screaming for more detail from the PM. She said at Press Club wtte in negotiating, it is not wise to put all your cards on the table at the beginning. She also said she still has to negotiate with the states on the detail.
Why don’t journos/commentators/smartalecs listen properly????
TLBD – People with other language skills need to be valued in government service.
An observation from me, based on some experience, is that too much emphasis is put on the technical rather than on the skill of the individual to convey what the other language person is actually saying – colloquial and culturally aware is the way to go.
Whoops, wrong button… @ 1569 (Cont)
(1) I accept your point that war creates its own realities and that wars get a life of their own. The bits of the Afghanistan War that I particularly dislike are that it increases islamic radicalisation and that it has been instrumental in further destabilising an already-unstable Pakistan.
(2) There is never going to be a ‘right’ time to exit Afghanistan.
(3) The choices made as to timing are always going to be political. In anything less than 50 years, they are always going to be arbitrary. And the result is always going to be a highly unstable heath robinson affair of a national mercenary army, an incompetent police form, and a grab bag collection of Taliban and assorted Mediaeval War Lords. No-one I know expects the outcome to be any different and no-one I know is willing to predict that this would last for anything longer than a year or two.
(4) The ‘cost’ is not only to the military. Defence has something like 30,000 PSTD cases on its books. Based on what we know about long-term impacts of wars on individuals, our children will be paying for the Afghanistan War.
(5) It troubles me significantly that it is taken as axiomatic that individuals in the military are not making an individual choice about staying in Afghanistan. The same issue is often couched around the professionalism and dedication of the troops. If I happened to be an Australia soldier in Afghanistan now I would demand to be relieved of duty and returned to Australia.
[The defense forces ALWAYS say they just need more time and resources.]
You can never have too much defense and offense is the best form of defense.
[Tanya Plibersek @tanya_plibersek
Every kid in every school should have what they need to achieve their potential – sounds like my kind of Australian values. #betterschools ]
Todays retail sales figures continue the demise of the department store, but they are a good result. 3.5% annual growth is what we should expect, an increase in household goods sales of 2.4% .
The retail dinosaurs (cue Gerry Harvey) will scream doom and gloom but the figures tell a different story.
rummel
I think you are right, I can’t see Gonski being around for long post an election cycle or two. It is unfortunate that we have built a system that doesn’t lend itself to long term strategic projects. Somehow we needed LNP in the tent on this one, but I doubt that was ever an option. It feels like something the PM truly believes in, but is setting it up to be used as a weapon during an election knowing full well that it is unlikely to gather much traction. I hope I am wrong, I like the idea of a long term project to make fundamental changes to the system which is linked to measurable outcomes.
If we could only harness the aussie love for winning at sport and direct it to our need to climb the international education index table.
r
From what we know about the Coalition’s plan on education it is to put less funding into education, to have fewer teachers, to have less school funding, and to restrict quality education to the wealthy.
I was amused to see the United States had suspended training of Afghan nationals until they were all re-vetted.
The Taliban don’t need to get their men into the Afghan National Army – all they need to do is threaten the families of Afghan National Army soldiers unless the soldier does . . . .
As far as education goes, there’ll be a really distinct choice come the 2013 election.
wwp
[..offense is the best form of defense.]
If this means waging war at every opportunity, then you are wRONg. If this means that attacking is axiomatically better than defending as a means of defense then you are wRONg as well.
In both senses, circumstances alter cases.
Graham Morris trying to justify his comments to Leigh Sales. Ignored Speers asking if he would have called Kerry O’Brien a ‘cow’.
Can’t anybody spell defence any more? Or is it compulsory to follow the USA now?
Grrr.
BBC Breaking News @BBCBreaking
South African Paralympian @oscarpistorius apologises for comments he made about rival’s blades. Details soon http://bbc.in/OSdLLb
The Coalition might be on the right track as there are fewer children in the population than in previous generations. Also why do you want to educate the dole bludgers – society will be much more stable if they remain ignorant.
I think you might be slightly wrong, because although overall funding for education is going down the well endowed private schools will continue to receive their entitlements.
[wwp
..offense is the best form of defense.
If this means waging war at every opportunity, then you are wRONg. If this means that attacking is axiomatically better than defending as a means of defense then you are wRONg as well.
In both senses, circumstances alter cases.]
*rolls eyes*
I’ll use /irony on/ next time so you can tell what is going on …
Boerwar: I have a friend who is intersex.
She was born with what appeared to be a penis, but no scrotum. They thought it was just an unfortunate quirk of nature to have been born without a scrotum, but no-one asked any further questions and she was still called “boy” on her birth certificate and given a male name.
Well, it didn’t take long for her to work out something was wrong. She said she never felt like other boys, but didn’t know why. Then she hit her tweens and started to notice her nipples swelling … and then she started to grow breasts.
She was so embarrassed by it, she hid it from her parents (and especially her friends), but a bout of abdominal pain sent her off to the doctor who, upon examination of her abdomen, insisted she be taken for further tests … which revealed the presence of a womb, fallopian tubes and ovaries – it turns out she was starting to menstruate!
So after a WTF!!! conversation between mum, dad, my friend and the doctors, the decision was taken to perform surgery to fashion a vagina to allow the flow of menstrual fluid. My friend was finally able to tell her parents she had always felt something was wrong with her and never felt like other boys and asked whether it was okay to live her life as a girl now. They said “no”: everyone knew her as a boy and a boy she had to remain.
I should point out this was a long time ago – my friend is well into her 60s now – so this would have been a typical attitude of her parents given the era in which they both had grown up. I don’t believe my friend ever resented them for it; she was more disappointed than anything that she wasn’t able to immediately embrace who she knew she always was.
So she remained a “boy” until she was old enough to leave home, whereupon she started living as a female and has ever since.
Interestingly, she identifies as lesbian and has been in a relationship with another woman for over 30 years and although legally they can marry (as my friend is legally a man), she refuses to do so until he gay brothers and sisters can as well.
🙂
CTar1 – thanks for watching my back 😉 I do not claim to have a wide grasp on language being a simple country boy from a poor public school. Interestingly, my sisters both went to the private school whereas us boys were left at the public school – I am not sure why.
TLBD – I hope to repay the favour one day…my main concern is that you might attract the attention of Fran, that would not be much fun. I think Fran is like the Eye of Sauron.
BH: it’s good to know the media are still smacking him over the head with this.
I was worried they were going to let him get away with it.
Just as well he insulted a journo rather than just an ordinary, run-of-the-mill Prime Minister 😉
thirdborn314
[but is setting it up to be used as a weapon during an election]
Agree, the Libs would have found it hard enough as is to support Gonski, now Gillard is going to wack the Libs states and Fed Libs with it during the election its not going to last the first month of the new Abbott Government.
1581
High military spending distorts the economy and diverts resources from productive parts of the economy. Remember that is was military spending that broke the Soviet Union. Military prioritisation gives the military more political sway.
Reducing the need for defence spending (peace treaties, non-aggression pacts, demilitarisation agreements, etc) and then making the resulting cuts is a good thing.
Danny,
She sounds like a very interesting lady. Not because of her sexuality but in how she has dealt with it all. Amazing.
CTar1 – I am assuming you were referring to TLBD’s response to my poor spelling.