James J relates that Newspoll has Labor up further on a surprisingly strong result a fortnight ago: the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead is down from 54-46 to 53-47, and the primary votes are 35% for Labor (up two), 45% for the Coalition (steady) and 11% for the Greens (up one). Labor was last this high on two-party preferred in March, and on primaries when Labor enjoyed a brief spike in the days before Kevin Rudd’s leadership challenge. Despite this, Julia Gillard’s personal ratings have weakened still further, her approval down two points to 27% and disapproval up one to 60%, while Tony Abbott continues what seems to be a steady upward trend over recent months: his approval is up two to 34% and his disapproval is down two to 54%. And on another counter-intuitive note, the latest poll nonetheless has Julia Gillard drawing level on preferred prime minister at 38% apiece, compared with a 38-36 lead for Abbott last time.
UPDATE: Morgan’s face-to-face poll covering the last two weekends also gives Labor it’s best result since March: their primary vote is up 2.5% to 34.5%, although the Coalition is also up half a point to 44%, with the Greens down 1.5% to 10%. On two-party preferred, the Coalition lead is down from 56-44 to 54-46 on respondent-allocated preferences and 53.5-46.5 to 53-47 on previous election preferences.
Newspoll having turned in results which look relatively kind to Labor twice in a row, I thought now might be a good time to review the recent performance of the pollsters relative to each other. I have done this by calculating averaged quarterly results for each regularly reporting pollster going back to the start of 2009 (with separate results included for the respondent-allocated and previous-election figures from Morgan’s face-to-face polls). The first chart shows the progress over that time of Labor’s two-party vote.
This shows an impressive consistency of trends once weekly/fortnightly/monthly fluctuations are ironed out. The closest we get to an aberration is the April-June 2009 result from Nielsen, which conducted only one poll in that period. A clearer indication of pollsters’ “house biases” can be provided if we convert the results into deviations from the average of the four pollsters (using the previous election measure for Morgan for the sake of consistency).
This indeed shows that Newspoll has lately been more generous to Labor than at any other point in the time covered, but the difference with Essential Research is still fairly modest. Nielsen, it would seem, has reliably been a point or two worse for Labor than Newspoll over the entire period. Essential favoured Labor in the early days of operation, apparently due to methodological teething problems, but has closely matched Newspoll throughout the current parliamentary term. It is true that a gap has opened in the two most recent observations, but I would want to see this continued over a longer time frame before reading much into it.
The widely recognised lean to Labor in Morgan-face-to-face polls is shown up fairly clearly on the respondent-allocated result, although the other pollsters “caught up” with it at the peak of the Rudd honeymoon. As I’ve probably said about a million times now, the gap which opened up between respondent-allocated and previous-election two-party results in early 2011 is an inexplicable quirk of Morgan’s. The respondent-allocated results produced by Nielsen show no such pattern, and if I had gone to the bother of including separate measures, it would have hugged the previous-election line as closely as Morgan’s did over the first half of the chart.
Taken together, the average two-party results for Labor since the 2010 election have been 45.9% from Newspoll, 44.2% from Nielsen, 45.7% from Essential, 48.1% from Morgan previous-election, and 45.9% from Morgan respondent-allocated.
Other polls:
• Essential Research has primary votes unchanged on last week, at 32% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens, although rounding has resulted in an increase in the Coalition’s two-party lead from 56-44 to 57-43. Also featured are questions on power prices, with 37% thinking power companies most responsible against 28% for the federal government and 23% for state governments; price increases under the carbon tax, which 52% (including 68% of Coalition voters) say they have noticed and 36% say they haven’t; and the various aspects of the Houston report recommendations, which find very strong support for limiting the ways boat arrivals can bring their families to Australia, opinion divided on increasing the humanitarian program and strong opposition to the Malaysia solution, but strong approval for implementing them all as per the new government policy.
• Channel Nine in Brisbane tonight reported results of a statewide ReachTEL automated phone poll of over 1000 respondents, which showed the LNP on 42.2% (compared with 49.6% at the election), Labor on 31.6% (26.7%), Katter’s Australian Party on 9.6% (11.5%) and the Greens on 9.2% (7.5%), for an LNP lead of 56-44 (62.8-37.2) on two-party preferred. Daniel Hurst of Fairfax has more results from the poll, including the finding that Campbell Newman’s disapproval rating (42%) has nearly shaded his approval (44%). This adds to the impression from Morgan polling (see below) and last fortnight’s ReachTEL Ashgrove poll of a solid shift away from the LNP over recent months, albeit nowhere near enough to threaten their lead.
• Morgan has published a headache-inducing release on state voting intention which details results from various small-sample phone polls conducted over the past two months. Last week they polled between 319 and 343 respondents in each of the four biggest states; a month ago they polled 648 respondents nationally for a poll on “the most important public problems facing Australia”, from which tiny state-level sub-samples have been derived for comparing the latest results with. Every individual set of results is from too small a sample to be of much use, but you can see them all here if you’re interested. They can at least be used to derive combined July-August results for New South Wales and Victoria from passable samples of just below 500 and margins of error of around 4.5%. For New South Wales, the results are Coalition 54%, Labor 25% and Greens 10%, with the Coalition leading 61-39 on two-party preferred; for Victoria, Coalition 45%, Labor 35% and Greens 12%, with the Coalition leading 51-49. In each case Labor and the Greens get similar results to the previous elections, but the Coalition are three points higher on the primary vote in New South Wales and four points lower in Victoria.
• Jamie Walker of The Australian reports research conducted for Labor by UMR Research in March found Clive Palmer was viewed favourably by 26% of men and 16% of women, and unfavourably by 35% of men and 22% of women. Forty-two per cent of women and 26% men said they had never heard of him.
Preselections:
• Barnaby Joyce said last week he would “definitely” run for preselection in the outback Queensland seat of Maranoa if its 68-year-old incumbent, Bruce Scott, decided not to seek another term. Should Scott remain intransigent, he will “seek the counsel of party people in the electorate”.
• The NSW Nationals have confirmed state independent Richard Torbay as their candidate to take on Tony Windsor in New England.
• Fairfax reports Jane Prentice, the LNP member for the Brisbane seat of Ryan, faces preselection challenges from Jonathon Flegg, son of state government minister and former Liberal leader Bruce Flegg, and pharmacist John Caris.
• The ABC reports that Michael Burr withdrew as Liberal candidate for the northern Tasmanian marginal seat of Braddon last month, a fact which escaped by notice when I compiled my “seat of the week” entry a fortnight later. The front-runner to replace him would appear to be Brett Whiteley, who held a state seat in Braddon from 2002 until his defeat in 2010. Former Senator Guy Barnett says he was approached to fill the vacancy, but is instead focusing on entering state politics. The two unsuccessful candidate for the original preselection, veterans advocate Jacqui Lambie and Poppy Growers Tasmania president Glynn Williams, have indicated they might try again.
• Barry Kennedy of the Sunbury Leader reports Sunbury businessman Ben Collier and two other candidates will contest Liberal preselection for McEwen on the weekend. Rob Mitchell gained the seat for Labor at the 2010 election and scored a free-kick at the redistribution to take effect at the next election, which adds Labor-voting Sunbury to the seat and boosts his margin from 5.3% to 9.2%.
• Warring factions in the NSW Liberal Party are reportedly negotiating a compromise after a “hard Right” push to entrench preselection plebiscites led to fears numerous sitting MPs would be targeted with branch-stacking. Together with a raft of state MPs, Sean Nicholls of the Sydney Morning Herald reported those affected might include Philip Ruddock in Berowra, Scott Morrison in Cook, Bronwyn Bishop in Mackellar and Alex Hawke in Mitchell. Heath Aston of the Sun-Herald reports the compromise would likely involve sitting members being protected, branch members required to be members for two years before being entitled to a plebiscite vote, limitations on state executive’s power to impose candidates and, in a concession from the hard Right, a requirement for direct attendance at elections for state executive positions to guard against postal vote rorting. At the root of the dispute is the decision by state executive, which is dominated moderates and the centre Right, to impose centre Right candidate Lucy Wicks in the seat of Robertson.
• Shannon Tonkin of the Illawarra Mercury reports John Rumble, a Wollongong nurse and son of former local state MP Terry Rumble, will challenge incumbent Stephen Jones for Labor preselection in Throsby. It had been widely reported that the Right was gathering strength in local branches in preparation for a push by Mark Hay, son of state Wollongong MP Noreen Hay, but he announced earlier this month that he would instead pursue work commitments with the Royal Australian Navy.
Bushfire Bill
[The NT LOTO this morning said on AM that “no frontline PSjob is in danger”.]
Words which will be smashed by these killer words from CanJoh uttered a mere four months ago.
[Aspiring premier Campbell Newman has told Queensland’s public servants they have “nothing to fear” from a Liberal National Party government as he officially took over as effective opposition leader.]
Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/you-have-nothing-to-fear-newman-tells-public-service-20110404-1cv6x.html#ixzz24SPtNNOn
Grudging respect will do.
[And surely the reliability of Piers’ commentary is at best debatable? He followed Andrew Bolt in denouncing AGW as some kind of leftist conspiracy, and I have vague recollections of him questioning the existence of a stolen generation as well.]
There’s a difference between a journalist and a commentator, or at least there ought to be. The ABC’s point against Milne was that in a news story he reported things to be true which weren’t, in other words he’s a bad journalist. Ackerman is not a journalist, just a loud-mouthed ratbag.
Carey Moore @ 5212
At what probability % is something “impossible” for you?
The strict answer is 0%. However you may have a threshold, where you disregard a small chance.
When you give this number I can give your odds.
BB,
It seems to me every state lib leader is reading from the same script.
To me it seems they have been directed from above to focus on the “‘strong economic management and tough love ” theme as a winner.
It is early days yet but it is possible that this approach may taint all sate/territory libs and Abbott with a negative that they will find very hard to escape.
The contagion may be spreading with no antedote in the medical kit.
[His actions have cut through to Darwin. ]
Terry Mills got lots of applause and enthusiasm last night, much more so than the Chief Minister. But a CPSU representative asked about cuts to the public service, cuts to programs and so on and in trying to articulate where cuts would be made, he ended up just looking shifty.
Finns:
Must make for a nice change to the alternative whingeing and carping about the govt!
Good BB,
Will do that but can guarantee another feburary trip if you wish for another pb meeting.
Cando ,after i must admit I thought may do ok. has gone nuts.
The lnp will win the next qld. election because of the huge majority but I am pretty sure no one expected this shit..
Federally a absolute gift for labor.
Hope the dog is well?
Decided lack of foaming right wing commentary in the last 48hours eh? Noticed the absence here as well? Only the impervious TP hops in and makes a lame attempt at spinning reality towards Ruddstoration.
Reminds me of the old joke about wide-mouth toads (which seems to apply perfectly to the Fibs) The relative silence of pompous legal spivs like Brandis is very telling….
It was funny on 7.30 last night watching Toolman trying to find ways to crit one of the best press conference performances I’ve ever seen.
What a great week!
Where is that link to the article with the “TRUST FUND” words?
Kezza, have you got it.
[Words which will be smashed by these killer words from CanJoh uttered a mere four months ago.]
That’s April last year. Is there anything more recent from Newman?
[At what probability % is something “impossible” for you?
The strict answer is 0%. However you may have a threshold, where you disregard a small chance.
When you give this number I can give your odds.]
0% is impossible, 100% is certain.
Everything else is possible and uncertain.
However, there are nuances of possibility. I would call the low end of the scale implausible. Really, it’s subjective where you consider that range beginning. I wasn’t asking for a precise numerical answer, just a rough area where you realistically think it’s not too much of a longshot to consider anymore.
confessions
[That’s April last year. Is there anything more recent from Newman?]
Bugger ! My excuse m’lud ? Reading that quote several times in recent Courier Mail and Brissie Times editions. It has not been forgotten and is still a killer quote.
5231
Joh was a regional National Party premier aided by malaportionment. Newman is a Brisbane Liberal who is a hard line public service cutter. 2 very different electoral effects, especially in Qld with its higher proportion of regional voters. Remember that is was rural and regional voters Kennet drove to the ALP. There is also the KAP factor. I don`t think that the LNP can loose next election but they could easily loose 30+ seats if the ALP and KAP do a preference deal.
[There’s a difference between a journalist and a commentator, or at least there ought to be.]
In today’s journosphere there doesn’t appear to be any difference at all. Supposed ‘serious’ journalists ark up at the prospect of a mere blogger challenging their position and their effort. But when loud-mouthed, know-nothing bloviators like Piers do so, it’s okay.
There are probably many on here who know those who claim to have a photographic memory.
I’ve tried to explain what it’s like, but it is the worst possible affliction: you can’t ever let go of the past because it is always there – in technicolour.
What it entails is minutiae recall, whether it be a situation, a book read, or a conversation overheard.
If it’s a situation, you not only recall the people present, but their clothing and their position, their demeanour and their contribution, if it’s a book read, you not only recall chapter and verse, you remember the page number or if it was recorded on the LH or RH side, and if it was a conversation, who spoke first, second, third, etc.
It’s Shitsville Incorporated.
When you try to escape, it makes you remember other stuff – like accusing William of excusing males who say bitch (and they do and he does) and then you can’t be bothered because it’s all too hard, and then you accuse other posters of being inconsistent.
I give up.
But the dead are many (Frank Hardy).
kezza
Do you have a link to that article? I am scrolling through trying to find it.
Well the best answer is the “teach a man” to fish answer.
Andrew Leigh has a nice simple post on how to covert odds into probabilities.
http://previousleigh.wordpress.com/2007/07/25/how-to-turn-betting-odds-into-probabilities/
The direct answer to your question is 10-20%. But that is just my taste. Converted into odds that is between $5 to $10 without any bookie’s profit margin…
[I am highly aware of that word ]
Unaware of trust fund? Is that what she’s saying?
Kezza2
Do you Have a photographic memory of things from years ago?
Boy – TP – you are such a Job’s Comforter! You really do struggle to see any blue sky.
For goodness sake, lighten up. Okay, it would be better if Labor had a majority of say 15 at the moment, and the polls were 52-48 for Labor, but they are not.
I am pleased we have had a progressive government for the last 5 years or so, will do so, with an ounce of luck, for at least the next 14 months, and beyond that.
Despite all the present PM is doing a good job with the hand she has been dealt.
I doubt whether anyone else, under similar circumstances could match her. There may be others but they will are not for now.
For goodness sake, look on the brighter side. It’s not perfect but is sure as hell beats being in opposition.
Thanks Poliquant.
puff
[PuffTheMagicDragon @PuffyTMD
@jesswrightstuff Did u say JG started a TRUST FUND? U might want to fix that – it was ‘association’. last time sum1 wrote TF lead2 apology
Expand
Reply
Delete
Favorite
1m Jessica Wright Jessica Wright @jesswrightstuff
@PuffyTMD I certainly didn’t – if it is in any copy can you direct me? It can only be an inserted error. I am highly aware of that word]
Here it is, puff. From Jessica Wright’s own article:
[You simply couldn’t progress your interrogation of the prime minister’s 50-minute press conference rebuttal of allegations about her work as a lawyer, her former-boyfriend-turned-short-order-cook and a union trust fund they’d both rather forget.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/memo-to-tony-abbott-20120824-24qm4.html#ixzz24R9m1ZCl
Thanks for being on top of it.
[victoria
Posted Friday, August 24, 2012 at 8:38 pm | Permalink
Kezza2
Do you Have a photographic memory of things from years ago?]
Of course, in my own life
But, unless you haven’t been listening, I’ve tried to get rid of it.
and, that means drugs, alcohol, anything,
so, most of the arguments that have been levelled against me have been true to an extent.
[Supposed ‘serious’ journalists ark up at the prospect of a mere blogger challenging their position and their effort. But when loud-mouthed, know-nothing bloviators like Piers do so, it’s okay.]
Oh dear I have got this round the wrong way. What I meant to say is that informed, substantive criticism from bloggers goes unnoticed (eg WIxxy in Jacksonville), yet inane criticism from msm commentators is obsessed over – witness PvO tweeting about stuff Bolt writes about him.
kezza, it has been corrected
[You simply couldn’t progress your interrogation of the Prime Minister’s 50-minute press conference rebuttal of allegations about her work as a lawyer, her former-boyfriend-turned-short-order-cook and a union fund they’d both rather forget.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/memo-to-tony-abbott-20120824-24qm4.html#ixzz24SYj45Kr
george on the job again.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J9uWQf_h9AE&feature=youtu.be
joe6pk,
Looks like Manly are doing a Bronco’s on the Bronco’s!
sustainabble future 4502: I expect we are going to see the narrative shift to a story of the ‘iron lady’. and others talking about iron balls.
I am on the lookout for the phrase “baptism of fire” as it will indicate the story has indeed turned. If we start reading stories about her “baptism of fire” as PM then it could mean something.
There are so many connotations to the phrase that are positive for Gillard that it should be seeded by Labor in the fertile empty furrows of journos minds. A bit of Framing like the Repubs do in the US that changes the narrative by changing the vocabulary. It does not require any explanation either; a perfect 3 word slogan! Each constituency understands it, even the Conservatives and our religious friends.
Think about it. What is a baptism of fire?
* an ordeal endured, leading to success.
* the military meaning of physical attack.
* the religious meaning of receiving the cleansing fire of Divine judgement.
* the religious meaning of imparting holiness to a person. (sanctifying them or making them complete)
* political meaning of endowing legitimacy on a leader.
* baptism of fire has an endpoint. It cannot go on forever; the subject either lives or dies, is strengthened or mortally wounded. Once it is acknowledged it is over and finished.
* it is therefore necessary.
Up to now no journalist or commentator has used this expression about the PM. I can find one headline but nothing else. Its usage will push the feeling that the process is over and the PM is considered to be the legitimate PM with a clear lead over the other guy.
Kezza2
Good Im glad you will always remember I voted for qld labor
OK, the word TRUST was removed from Jessica Wrights article. She was on it as soon as she found out and is currently on the phone, probably tearing strips pof a sub-editor.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/memo-to-tony-abbott-20120824-24qm4.html
The Finnigans
Posted Friday, August 24, 2012 at 8:51 pm | Permalink
kezza, it has been corrected
Ah well, Finns, you have to wonder why.
Is it because attention was drawn to it on this blog????
BK:
george’s video is titled Abbott interviewed on Sunrise, which is MelanKochie-Land, not Lisa Wilkinson.
Although at least now I know what the Wilkinson interview refers to! 😆
Space Kidette
And the mail about canberra/bulldogs was correct
[Joe6pack
Posted Friday, August 24, 2012 at 8:55 pm | Permalink
Kezza2
Good Im glad you will always remember I voted for qld labor]
Try as I might, I’ll never forget you, JP6.
Jammies, edible, looking forward,
Joe6pk,
It is knocking my dream team scores about. I have to win this week to be in with a chance of winning our league’s comp next week. Right now it is looking a bit iffy.
puff
Don’t you just lurve “subbing” errors, considering they’ve outsourced sub-editing??
Yes. JW was really alarmed about it.
And the Raiders are doing Doggies on the Doggies.
Kezza2
Last Saturday in the hard copy of the Herald Sun was a small article on the Hawthorn and Gold Coast game. Hawthorn players Jared Roughhead and Cyril Rioli were not playing due to injury.
Here is image of how their names appeared in the Herald Sun. Hilarious
https://mobile.twitter.com/cussernaut/status/236588554371874816/photo/1
[Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Posted Friday, August 24, 2012 at 9:03 pm | Permalink
Yes. JW was really alarmed about it.]’
Well, I reckon this would be a pertinent question: why pretend there’s a ‘personal’ subbing desk when it is known that the sub-editing has been outsourced?
Source: Fairfax Sub-Editors sacked.
Ducky,
True!
reply from Jessica
[Andrew Elder @awelder
@argumentalist Thanks for that. I think it is even worse than the 7.30 clip; he sees himself as a delivery boy for Chairman of BHP ]
On Abbott’s Today interview with Wilkinson.
I will just say that from what I’ve observed from Friday twitter, Abbott is usually interviewed by Today’s Karl Stefanovic, who gives him a Ulhmann-like foot rub every week.
Proves that when you let women in our media step up to the mark we often do a much better job than the blokesville time servers like Uhlmann and Stefanovic.
Space Kidette
Got 4.5 on the raiders wed.
hasler was going to rest players and was known earlyby people in the know.
Not right probably but I,m happy
Ah, I love it when Frankenstein’s monster turns on its master:
[ Campbell Newman Needs To Go NOW Posted at 2:40 PM Today
Campbell Newman needs to be ousted. And if the new LNP Premier does not reverse the Legislation done overnight, CALL a NEW ELECTION N O W. We never voted for what LNP has done since elected. LNP obtained votes by False Pretences.
Comment 23 of 77]
The funniest thing is that New Ltd thinks it can control the rabble they have created.
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/premier-accused-labor-mp-of-being-a-grub-and-a-thug-during-parliament/comments-e6freon6-1226457436401
[OK, the word TRUST was removed from Jessica Wrights article. ]
She says she didn’t write it?
WTF
Cereal Oriole? Jared Aroused?
Joe6pk,
Glad one of us is winning!
CTar1:
Absolutely! She said she was unfamiliar with that ‘word’. In as much as trust fund can be described as one word, but this is the Australian press gallery after all…
CTar1 – in the media companies, articles are often rejigged after the journo submits them, if only for space, readability or the like. Same as headlines are never up to the journo.