Seat of the week: Chisholm

Chisholm covers a band of suburbs in Melbourne’s electorally sensitive east, from Box Hill and Mont Albert in the north through Burwood and Mount Waverley in the centre to Chadstone, Oakleigh and Clayton in the south. Labor is strongest in the far south, with most of the remainder being naturally marginal and the Mont Albert area leaning Liberal. Reflecting the area’s static population, the redistribution that will take effect at the next election has added around 18,000 voters at Blackburn South, Burwood East and Forest Hill in the east (previously in Deakin), balanced only by the transfer of about 8000 voters around Glen Waverley to Bruce and 1500 in Mont Albert North to Kooyong. Antony Green calculates the changes have shaved 0.3% from the Labor margin, which is now at 5.8%.

Chisholm was created with the enlargement of parliament in 1949, but was then based on Camberwell and Glen Iris further to the west. It no longer contains any of its original territory, which now bolsters the Liberals in Higgins and Kooyong. Its progressive drift to the east accordingly made a Labor-leaning seat of what had traditionally been a safe one for the Liberals, its members being Wilfrid Kent Hughes until 1970, Tony Staley until 1980 and Graham Harris until 1983. The Liberal grip was loosened by successive swings in 1977, 1980 and 1983, the Labor candidate on each occasion being Helen Mayer, who succeeded on the third attempt. Early Howard government Health Minister Michael Wooldridge recovered the seat for the Liberals in 1987, and held it precariously until he jumped ship to the more secure Casey in 1998. The current Labor member, Anna Burke, prevailed at the 1998 election with a 2.1% margin that was little changed in 2001 and 2004. She finally achieved a secure margin with a 4.7% swing in 2007, before the seat went slightly against the statewide trend with a 1.3% swing to the Liberals in 2010.

Anna Burke had been an industrial officer with the Finance Sector Union before entering parliament, and is aligned with the Right sub-faction associated with the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association. She has had two spells as Deputy Speaker since Labor came to power in 2007, the interruption coming after the 2010 election when the government partially bolstered its fragile parliamentary position by having Liberal member Peter Slipper take her place. Burke returned to the role after the government appeared to go one better in having Slipper replace Harry Jenkins as Speaker in November 2011, and her national profile received a considerable boost when allegations of sexual harassment and misuse of taxi dockets compelled Slipper to stand aside in April 2012, leaving her the semi-permanent occupant of the chair.

The Liberals have again preselected their candidate from 2010, Vietnamese-born John Nguyen, a partner at Ernst & Young who was five years old when his family fled their native country in 1979. VexNews reports that Nguyen won the preselection ballot ahead of Nicholas Tragas, Telstra executive and Boroondara councillor, and that the two were respectively backed by “the sometimes united Kroger/Costello group” and its traditional rivals associated with Premier Ted Baillieu.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,181 comments on “Seat of the week: Chisholm”

Comments Page 42 of 44
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  1. Yet-Another-Idiotic-Irresistable-Force-Meets-Immovable-Object-Conversation Status is now at CODE #RED.

    Who gives a shit whether gays can get married or not?

    Just let them have their wish, according to conscience, and get on to discussing more important things.

    Sheesh.

    I would vote “Yes” just to drown this stupid argument.

  2. Whatch he doesn’t involve us in his secret wars
    ______________________________
    Obama has created secret special forces under the contol of the CIA and himself
    according to “Counterpunch ” these forces are now involved in undeclared wars in Yemen and Somalia
    He is a dangerous ally !

  3. [Look, you legislate for same sex unions with the same rights as a marriage of opposite sex couples.]
    Um, that would be called MARRIAGE under the Marriage Act!

    You really have no clue on this issue.

    [The word marriage belongs exclusively to opposite sex couples.]
    Why? So far your argument is basically ‘it is because it is’.

    [The tradition comprising a mother, father, grandmother, uncle, etc… should be preserved.
    Why? You are just asserting things but not actually presenting an argument.

    [GET OVER IT!]
    Why don’t you get over yourself instead of telling other people what their relationships meant to them?

  4. [What is the question?]

    Question was what event occurred in all those House of Representatives elections but not the other ones.

  5. Actually I could change my mind.

    I think it’s actually 49% of marriages that end in divorce.

    If gays want it, they should have it. Yep no discrimination!

    *knock yourselves out* 🙂

  6. [Now, now, don’t fight over me. For all u know I may be a man]

    Horsey, if you are man, that is even better 😉

  7. And another thing… if a bunch of tax-dodging Greeks vote to self-immolate, WHY should the effin world go on the journey with them?

    This is the second most idiotic subject in the world: why we all have this self-fulfilling death wish to sacrifice our well-being to bloody Standard & Poors concept of how the world works so they can stay rich and we pay the price.

    F**k ’em I say. Let the Greeks do what Greeks do and just let’s the rest of us get on with our lives. We’re wishing ourselves into the grave over a few decimal points on some New York trading wanker’s computer screen.

    He doesn’t really care whether Greece lives or dies. Why should we?

  8. Shows On, umm, another ACT can be legislated to allow gays with the same rights as opposite sex married couples.

    You really don’t have a clue!

  9. [Shows On, umm, another ACT can be legislated to allow gays with the same rights as opposite sex married couples.]
    What on earth are you talking about? It is called MARRIAGE. You can’t pretend that same sex couples have all the same rights if they can’t get an Australian Marriage certificate!

    You are so wrong you don’t even know how you are wrong.

  10. [ Peg, actually global warming should be starting by the Oct long weekend 😈 ]

    Bugger! Looks like we miss out here in Qld. We don’t get a long weekend in October! 😉

  11. [Question was what event occurred in all those House of Representatives elections but not the other ones.]

    There is something about the 2PP vote coming off the previous election, but don’t know if that’s unusual enough to be heralded as an ‘event’.

    Don’t know.

  12. [Horsey, if you are man, that is even better]

    If Horsey is man I have just remembered, very busy Oct long weekend 😆

  13. [There is something about the 2PP vote coming off the previous election, but don’t know if that’s unusual enough to be heralded as an ‘event’.]

    It is something to do with the election compared to the previous one, but not the 2PP vote.

  14. [It is something to do with the election compared to the previous one, but not the 2PP vote.]
    Most seats one by a first term opposition?

  15. [ Gillard is clearly wrong, and worse, has no basis at all for her opinion. One is left to conclude that her opinion merely reflects the demands of the RW power brokers backing her and the ACL. ]

    That, without a shadow of any doubt, would be the most vile, narrow minded, bigoted comment that this blog has ever posted.

    Apparently a human being, a female, an Australian citizen, a politician and then, the Prime Minister of the country, can’t have an opinion on an extremely complex, emotionally draining, family and community splitting issue. No, not at all, apparently Ms Gillards opinions are formed by others, those who have not lived her life, drawn on her life observations. No, Ms Gillard is in thrall to dark, vested interests. Perhaps the same ones she fought to bring about the conscience vote?

    On the surface it seems so easy doesn’t it Fran? Swing in a ambush question on a complex social issue, have a suitably sad/angry/upset parent, gay son in attendance and let him vent. Let him vent at the only politician powerful enough, brave enough to force a conscience vote on an issue that is divisive in the extreme. Then, as Bushfire so aptly puts it, wave the scented hanky under your nose and say the Prime Minister is to blame.

    While I personally may or may not agree with Ms Gillard the fact remains that she is one vote in a parliament in which half of the participants are denied a vote of conscience.

    You’re a bigot Fran Barlow.

  16. So have the greeks voted to leave europe

    I remember n
    my inlaws sayi g it want work, there was to many traditions and ways of life that did not match, different ideas ect

    Well there you go if she was still here she would say
    I told you so

  17. Steve Lewis and Chris Uhlmann’s book has gone to the printers……

    [Book Description

    An imaginative romp through the dark underbelly of politics by two veteran Canberra insiders.

    When seasoned newshound Harry Dunkley is slipped a compromising photograph one frosty Canberra dawn he knows he′s onto something big. In pursuit of the scoop, Dunkley must negotiate the deadly corridors of power where the minority Toohey Government hangs by a thread – its stricken Foreign Minister on life support, her heart maintained by a single thought. Revenge.

    Rabid Rottweilers prowl in the guise of Opposition senators, union thugs wage class warfare, TV anchors simper and fawn … and loyalty and decency have long since given way to compromise and treachery.

    From the teahouses of Beijing to the beaches of Bali, from the marbled halls of Washington to the basements of the bureaucracy, Dunkley′s quest takes him ever closer to the truth – and ever deeper into a lethal political game.

    Award-winning journalists Steve Lewis of News Ltd and Chris Uhlmann from the ABC combine forces in this arresting novel that proves fiction is stranger than fact. ]

    [Steve Lewis ‏@lewiss50

    We have gone to the printers. Not long to go now……. http://www.harpercollins.com.au/books/Marmalade-Files/?isbn=9780730499657
    ]

  18. [It is something to do with the election compared to the previous one, but not the 2PP vote.]

    Then it must be something to do with the ‘others’ vote.

    Did it go down from the previous election, meaning that minority party or independents lost their seats in those elections?

  19. [Steve Lewis ‏@lewiss50

    We have gone to the printers. Not long to go now…….]
    . . . . and next to the cleaners!

  20. [Apparently a human being, a female, an Australian citizen, a politician and then, the Prime Minister of the country, can’t have an opinion on an extremely complex, emotionally draining, family and community splitting issue. ]
    Oh FFS! Of course she can have an opinion. The question is does her opinion / position on the issue make any sense.

    The answer to that question is NO by default, because she hasn’t really explained WHY.

  21. BB. way too much is made of soveriegn default. it has happened plenty of times over the centuries. greece shouldn’t have got themselves into that position. but asking them to live on their knees for the forseeable future is a lousy outcome.

  22. You legislate for a civil union with the same powers and rights as marriage but for those of the same sex.

    Are you serious or shit stirring, because you are being stupid Shows On.

    Provide a factual source where and why that can not be the case or ZIP… ?

  23. [That, without a shadow of any doubt, would be the most vile, narrow minded, bigoted comment that this blog has ever posted.]

    I dont’ know who posted that original comment about the PM, but I’d bet London to a brick s/he believes Rudd should be leading the ALP. Because he’s a leftwing martyr or something.

  24. The Finnigans Posted Sunday, June 17, 2012 at 8:36 pm | Permalink

    Gee, this is tragic. Watching Greece Election

    Whats happened

    We are watching the voice, i am actully enjoying. It

  25. [You legislate for a civil union with the same powers and rights as marriage but for those of the same sex.]
    Oh dear, this is a pure oxymoron. A civil union isn’t a marriage. Marriage means marriage under the marriage act. You can’t create a civil union and then say it is the same as a marriage.

    [Are you serious or shit stirring, because you are being stupid Shows On.]
    No, you are showing that you are so idiotic you don’t even understand why you are wrong.

    [Provide a factual source where and why that can not be the case or ZIP… ?]
    Stop bossing people around.

  26. [a woman from a culturally diverse background]

    It’s not just that.

    [There are numerous examples currently and historically which prove this view wrong.]

    I meant successful when running for PM.

  27. My final comment and say on gay marriage for the night is that;

    people and the PM have a democratic right to express their views on the issue.

    Accept it!

  28. LOL! Guy on ABC News 24 said:
    [Greece has survived for 2,500 years, I’m sure it will survive for another two and a half.]
    I THINK he meant to say 2,500″

  29. [Steve Lewis and Chris Uhlmann’s book has gone to the printers……

    Book Description

    An imaginative romp through the dark underbelly of politics by two veteran Canberra insiders.

    When seasoned newshound Harry Dunkley is slipped a compromising photograph one frosty Canberra dawn he knows he′s onto something big. In pursuit of the scoop, Dunkley must negotiate the deadly corridors of power where the minority Toohey Government hangs by a thread – its stricken Foreign Minister on life support, her heart maintained by a single thought. Revenge.

    Rabid Rottweilers prowl in the guise of Opposition senators, union thugs wage class warfare, TV anchors simper and fawn … and loyalty and decency have long since given way to compromise and treachery.

    From the teahouses of Beijing to the beaches of Bali, from the marbled halls of Washington to the basements of the bureaucracy, Dunkley′s quest takes him ever closer to the truth – and ever deeper into a lethal political game.

    Award-winning journalists Steve Lewis of News Ltd and Chris Uhlmann from the ABC combine forces in this arresting novel that proves fiction is stranger than fact.

    Steve Lewis ‏@lewiss50

    We have gone to the printers. Not long to go now……. ]http://www.harpercollins.com.au/books/Marmalade-Files/?isbn=9780730499657

    Next stop the $2 discount table along with Battlelines, I would have thought, judging from the blurb.

    What a pile of garbage.

  30. [My final comment and say on gay marriage for the night is that;

    people and the PM have a democratic right to express their views on the issue.

    Accept it!]
    THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR STATING THE BLEEDING OBVIOUS!

    Now piss off.

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