Budget polling: Nielsen, Galaxy and Morgan

Four polls: one from Nielsen, conducted on the two nights after the budget (Wednesday and Thursday) from a sample of 1200; one from Galaxy, conducted on Thursday evening and during the day yesterday from a sample of 600; a Morgan phone poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday evening from a sample of 571; and a Morgan face-to-face poll conducted last weekend from a sample of 1004. Galaxy only canvassed opinion on the budget; Nielsen and the Morgan phone poll canvassed the budget and voting intention; the Morgan face-to-face poll, obviously, missed the budget and only looked at voting intention.

First on voting intention. Nielsen and the Morgan phone poll are in agreement on two-party preferred, which amounts to a combined sample of 1771 putting the result at 58-42 to the Coalition. On the primary vote, Nielsen has Labor up a point on the previous poll six weeks ago to 28%, the Coalition up two to 49% and the Greens down one to 12%. Even allowing for the small sample and high margin of error, the state breakdowns offer the truly extraordinary result of a Labor primary vote in Queensland of 19%, compared with a previous worst of 21% in July last year (and perhaps suggesting a honeymoon for the state government has added a bit of fuel to federal Labor’s recent poll collapse). Remarkably, the poll still has Labor ahead 54-46 in Victoria.

Morgan’s phone poll has the primary votes at 29% for Labor, 50.5% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The face-to-face poll has Labor’s primary vote at 29.5%, down half a point on their previous worst-ever result in the last poll of April 21/22 (there was evidently no polling conducted on the weekend of April 28/29). The Coalition was also down two points, to 45.5%, and with the Greens steady at 12%, the slack has been taken up by “others”. At 13%, the latter figure is at levels unseen since One Nation and the Democrats were substantial concerns, although other, more reliable polls aren’t replicating this. Records have also been set on the two-party preferred figures: the 60.5-39.5 respondent-allocated result is Labor’s worst ever, but the gap between this figure and the 55.5-44.5 previous-election result is also at an all-time high, the previous highest being two polls ago in early April.

Regarding the budget:

• Nielsen and Galaxy both asked respondents if it would leave them better or worse, producing results of 27% better off and 43% worse off in Nielsen’s case, and 23% and 46% in Galaxy’s.

• Morgan has 19% rating the budget good, 43% average and 25% bad; 29.5% believing the surplus would eventuate and 60% believing it wouldn’t; and 49% considering a surplus important and 47.5% believing otherwise. The latter result is remarkably different to what Essential Research elicited a month ago when it framed the question thus: “Do you think it is more important for the Government to return the budget to surplus by 2012/13 as planned – which may mean cutting services and raising taxes – OR should they delay the return to surplus and maintain services and invest in infrastructure?” That produced respective results of 12% and 73%.

• Galaxy asked if respondents believed the Coalition would have done better, which is the one question that allows ready comparison with the three questions Newspoll has been asking after each budget since the late 1980s (Newspoll also asks about impact on personal finances, but it explicitly offers respondents an “unchanged” option which invariably proves very popular). The results were 29% yes and 43% no, which is a surprisingly positive result for the government (or, more likely, a negative one for the opposition) – better for them than Newspoll’s 2010 and 2011 results, and close to Newspoll’s long-term averages of 29.5% and 47.6%.

• Galaxy also found only 17% anticipating that carbon tax compensation would be adequate against 62% who said it would not be.

So much for the good news for Julia Gillard. Personal ratings from Nielsen show up the following:

• Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred Labor leader has further blown out, to 62-30 in a head-to-head contest with Gillard from 58-34 when the question was last asked immediately before the leadership challenge.

• With other leadership options included, the results are 42% for Rudd, 19% for Gillard, 12% for Stephen Smith, 9% for Simon Crean, 8% for Bill Shorten and 4% for Greg Combet.

• Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has blown out from 48-45 to 50-42, returning him to where he was in September.

• Abbott has also scored his best personal ratings since July last year, his approval up five points on the previous poll to 44% and disapproval down four to 52%.

• Gillard has at least not gone backwards on her own personal ratings, although the starting point was quite dismal enough: 35% approval (down one) and 60% disapproval (up one).

UPDATE: Essential Research is at 57-43, down from 58-42 last week, from primary votes of 50% for the Coalition (steady), 30% for Labor (up one) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured are the monthly personal ratings, which are little changed on April (contra Nielsen, Tony Abbott’s net rating has actually deteriorated from minus 12 to minus 17), and responses to the budget. The most interesting of the latter questions is on the impact of the budget on you personally, working people, businesses and the economy overall, for which the respective net ratings are minus 11, plus 7, minus 33 and minus 6. All of the eight specific features of the budget canvassed produced net positive ratings, from plus 5 for reduced defence spending to plus 79 for increased spending on dental health. There was a statistical tie (34% to 33%) on the question of whether Wayne Swan or Joe Hockey was most trusted to handle the economy.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,219 comments on “Budget polling: Nielsen, Galaxy and Morgan”

Comments Page 83 of 85
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  1. I used to enjoy QandA, I would watch it and tweet while it was showing. That was over year ago, and it has just gone downhill ever since. I sometimes watch it on IView, but that is all.

  6. New2this
    [mari – I can have an opinion as long as it is your opinion…]
    It would be an improvement.

  9. [Now that he is suspended, Labor is no longer paying his legal fees. I can’t see Labor wangling a way to get around that as Thomson has to declare it as an allowance.]

    So, declare it; it is not illegal to pay his legals. Labor has to take the hit on this, it can’t avoid it. Get one of their donors to pay it. Get the ACTU to pay it. Who cares.

    How much would they spend to get a term in office? How much for half a term? I would threaten to resign if I were him; unless they covered his legals. It is not grubby politics, it is the right thing to do.

  13. my say @ 4069

    [the only politcs i know about i read here]

    I find PB a lifeline for political information and background without, in the main, the sneering we expect from Hockey and his like. I’m more of a lurker than a commentator because with the wealth of knowledge on this blog, I can feel out of my depth, and when I do comment I’m often late because I tend to read all the posts, tempting though some may be to scroll past.

    Also, even in those posts there can be a nugget of info which I find of interest.

    Not keen when it develops into a flame war though, although I can’t say I’ve seen too many of those lately. I think William runs a good ship.

  20. [New2This
    Posted Monday, May 14, 2012 at 10:13 pm | Permalink
    A career on this forum – do I need a frontal lobotomy to be welcomed?]

    My advice is to just enjoy yourself and don’t get too perturbed when they gang up on you.

    Its like schoolkids bullying the bright kid in the playground.

    Eventually those people end up working for the bright kid so they have the last laugh!!!! 🙂

  21. Allan
    The way I do it is to read the latest page, then go back about three, read them, check the latest page for new posts, go back read another couple of older pages, back to the latest one, repeat until I have caught up. I occasionally get my own comment in too. 😆

  22. TLBD

    [Joe wants to be half as good as Costello.

    He is.]

    I truly admire generosity to those incapable of recognising it.

  26. [JohD
    Posted Monday, May 14, 2012 at 10:25 pm | Permalink
    Now that he is suspended, Labor is no longer paying his legal fees. I can’t see Labor wangling a way to get around that as Thomson has to declare it as an allowance.

    So, declare it; it is not illegal to pay his legals. Labor has to take the hit on this, it can’t avoid it. Get one of their donors to pay it. Get the ACTU to pay it. Who cares.

    How much would they spend to get a term in office? How much for half a term? I would threaten to resign if I were him; unless they covered his legals. It is not grubby politics, it is the right thing to do]
    Sheesh. How do you know that is not happening.
    Why are you suddenly going spare over this?
    Do you know something we don’t know?

  28. Problem with QANDA and 7:30 is the presenters. They are well into the mode of THEM being the stars of their shows, and well away from being facilitators / moderators of the discussion so that its informs the audience.

    For QANDA Jones just needs to shut it, not interrupt, and the program would be a lot better.

    For 7:30, just get rid of Toolman. He is an irredeemable dick.

  29. Found it ,,
    OAKSHOTT COUNTRY POSTED

    Oakeshott Country Posted Monday, May 14, 2012 at 6:48 pm | Permalink

    Graham Young polls are largely self selected and are fairly useless. The results of his polls on the leadership spill were full of internal contradictions.

  30. Modlibv 4120
    Coming from someone who is voting for the biggest bully in the country, that is somewhat hypocritical. How rightwing projectionment!

  32. GhostWhoVote has reduced News Limited to Troy Bramston announcing Newspoll at 11pm EST on Newspoll. ROTFL How embarrassing for them and big victory for the Ghost with the most to boast

  36. [Sheesh. How do you know that is not happening.
    Why are you suddenly going spare over this?
    Do you know something we don’t know?]

    I don’t know. The talk is about whether Thompson will walk. I say he won’t because bankruptcy will result. However that means Labor has to cover his legals.

  37. [Mod Lib
    Posted Monday, May 14, 2012 at 10:30 pm | Permalink
    New2This
    Posted Monday, May 14, 2012 at 10:13 pm | Permalink
    A career on this forum – do I need a frontal lobotomy to be welcomed?

    My advice is to just enjoy yourself and don’t get too perturbed when they gang up on you.

    Its like schoolkids bullying the bright kid in the playground.

    Eventually those people end up working for the bright kid so they have the last laugh!!!! ]
    Ya know
    It’s like voting for nannies instead of education
    Like voting for an upsurge in the share market instead of investing in community

    Got it. wink wink, nudge nudge, say no more.
    Hey, lose that compassion, sonny, you’ll do well!

    And, as an aside, we call that “lobotomy” not “frontal lobotomy” fucker; don’t ever get toooooooo personal.

  42. [GhostWhoVotes ‏ @GhostWhoVotes
    #Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 45 (+4) L/NP 55 (-4) #auspol
    Expand
    Reply Retweet Favorite]

  45. Its like schoolkids bullying the bright kid in the playground.

    Eventually those people end up working for the bright kid so they have the last laugh!!!! 🙂

    ModLib displaying a reasonably high opinion of himself there.

  50. [GhostWhoVotes ‏ @GhostWhoVotes
    #Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 45 (+4) L/NP 55 (-4) #auspol]

    Fighting back pays.

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