Newspoll: 59-41 to Coalition

Word on Twitter is that Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 56-44 to 59-41, from primary votes of 27% for Labor (down two) and 51% for the Coalition (up three). But for a 26% result in the September 16-18 poll, this would be the lowest primary vote Labor had ever recorded since Newspoll commenced in 1985. The two-party figure ranks as the Gillard government’s equal worst result, along with the poll of September 2-4. Newspoll hasn’t always reported two-party preferred results, but my own calculations tell me there remain unbroken records from the respective honeymoon periods of Rudd (63-37 in February/March 2008) and Howard (60.5-39.5 in April 1996). Julia Gillard is up a point on disapproval to 63% and steady on approval at 28%, while Tony Abbott is down two on approval to 33% and up one on disapproval to 55%. Tony Abbott has widened the preferred prime minister lead he gained in the previous poll, from 41-39 to 41-36. As always, the sample for the poll was around 1150, with a margin of error of 3%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,396 comments on “Newspoll: 59-41 to Coalition”

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  1. [kezza2
    Posted Friday, May 4, 2012 at 4:43 pm | Permalink
    fiona reynolds

    Yes, and thanks.

    Women have so much to offer.
    PB is great proving ground, and I have left out so many.]
    Think women like us had to fight quite a bit of discriminatory comments, one of mine was on working a 4 day week guess you will want Monday off as that is washing day, smiled sweetly and said no Friday, in my mind though Monday most public holidays hell and I washed most day anyway. PS I got Friday off

  2. mari, brilliant. My treasured memory is when a v new male solicitor asked me to fetch him a few things from the stationery cupboard. I did so, and placed them on his desk, smiling sweetly too. Later that day he was taken around the firm to meet everybody, and the expression on his face when he discovered that I was a senior solicitor was priceless.

  3. Just been battling some twitterer who thinks Pyne/Ashby/Brough is trial by the media, I asked if Thomson/ slipper were too? Anyway after a lot of tooing and frooing I asked which media organisation she worked for? Think what annoyed me was she interrupted some good conversations I was having

  4. [Fiona reynolds
    Posted Friday, May 4, 2012 at 4:54 pm | Permalink
    mari, brilliant. My treasured memory is when a v new male solicitor asked me to fetch him a few things from the stationery cupboard. I did so, and placed them on his desk, smiling sweetly too. Later that day he was taken around the firm to meet everybody, and the expression on his face when he discovered that I was a senior solicitor was priceless.]

    Love that one, laughed and laughed, I dealt with solicitors quite a bit in my role as a Fin/Controller, I was called dear etc I would just said OK sweetie no more called dear after that. My boss loved it and encouraged me

  5. lizzie

    I really thought that Mal Brough was putting his money where his mouth was.
    That he really cared.

    And that he was over-run by Howard – Mal Brough ex-army – send in the troops.

    I’m not sure, but I think the party machine put him in his place.

    Then, to me he was just another acolyte, no gumption, couldn’t stand up to Howard – and was willing to take orders like a regular army chap.

    And now, if the allegations prove correct, then he was willing to sell his soul for the party.

    No sympathy whatsoever.

    As far as arrogance goes: well, I think he’s got a lot answer for in the intelligence stakes. 😆

  6. OPT

    [Boerwar, I wonder who’s footing Ashby’s legal bills! The FWA could have been one of those No win,no cost cases – before the background manoeuvres came to light.]

    I have no idea how the costings work.

  7. Have been watching from a distance today.

    Have noticed:

    Hockey confuses himself when trying to remember his cliche lines – and mixes them up

    Media has been studiously trying to divert attention away from Pyne/Slipper/Brough/Ashby (something new :lol:)

  8. Schnappi

    I got the 250 figure from Minister Greg Combet’s mouth at the live presser on News 24.
    So unless Combet got it wrong it must be the media getting it wrong.

  9. I signed up for twitter with Mars Curiosity,does that mean I can sign into any twitter??

    Got an email Luke Buckmaster is following me,believeheis with crikey

  10. All those blathering heads on The Contrarians have nothing else to talk aout but fake leadership struggles. They can’t talk about Slipper now, too touchy for certain people. They can’t have a go at the government for cutting sole parent payments because it’s what the Coalition would do too. They tried complaining about the defence force cuts and Stephen Smith dismissed them all. They can’t waffle on about Craig Thomson because there’s nothing new to say. So it has to be a confected leadership challenge. Sad, really. Why do they even bother doing the show? Apart from their burning desire to get their mugs on camera as often as possible there’s no real reason for them to even be there. PVO might as well stay home and write another book.

  11. WB

    Find that poll hard to believe with wa electricity prices and other problems barnett is having,people from wa think they are missing out on the boom and a lot blame the premier.

  12. [So unless Combet got it wrong it must be the media getting it wrong.] guytar the media don’t always get it wrong, sometimes they just lie.

  13. mari & fiona

    priceless stories.

    I well remember my younger sister being told how her new boss liked his coffee.
    She replied: oh, okay, mine’s “white, no sugar”

    She never once got his coffee!
    And he’s quite a well-known former minister in Labor Victoria.
    He often got hers.
    *fk I miss her*

    mari
    the beach option
    figured out it is going to cost me too much at the moment.
    gotta sit it out for a while.

    re last night’s doona

    have to say, I had the best night’s sleep for months.
    (but I can’t tell you how much putting a doona cover on sends me into a fury)
    I can’t explain why.

  14. PSA rep on News 24 just revealed some of Hockey’s accounting. Apparently if you are an army reservist working in a shop or whatever you are a public servant.
    You should contact Joe Hockey and ask where your pay rise is.

  15. Schnappi

    On the left of your Twitter “Home” screen, you will be presented with a short list of names as suggestions for you to “Follow”. If you’re interested, click on “Follow” and it will turn into “Following”. You will then see all Tweets by the people you are following.
    At the bottom left of that screen there is also a “Help” link which should get your started.

  16. PBS Newshour discussion topic is about a book entitled, ‘It is even worse than it looks.’ Focuses on dysfunction of the US political system; blames, mainly the Republican tactics.

    Give us government or we’ll wreck the joint.

    I wonder whether there are similar patterns in Australia?

  17. [Because if you show that link again, I’m going to have to hurt you]

    Tree Surgeon, kinky :kiss:

  18. Have just received a reply from ACMA re my complaint about alledged infllammatory language used by Mr Morris in that he encouraged people to kick the Prime Minister to death.

    I have been informed that I have to complain to Sky first, apparently. Have therefore lodged formal complaint with Sky.

    The rule says that I have to receive an answer within 60 days. Will file progress reports as, and if, any progress occurs.

  19. lizzie

    but do I have to sign up , give another name and password for every other twitter site,or does the mars criousity twitter nick and password do all?

  20. Mmmmm, ABC Classics is on and I’ve just heard Jake Shimabukuro’s exquisite cover of While my guitar gently weeps. Heaven.

    Kezza 2 and Mari, thank you for your kind words 🙂

  21. http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/rescuing-survivors-of-labor-slaughter/story-e6frezz0-1226346168015
    by Simon Benson
    Please don’t shoot me, I’m only posting this for information.
    [IF it hasn’t already become so, the Australian Labor Party will soon become completely ungovernable.
    Julia Gillard’s time as Prime Minister appears to be coming to an end. But no one inside the parliamentary party, or its executive branches, knows what to do about it.
    This week the NSW party secretary Sam Dastyari publicly said he thought MPs should get behind Gillard.
    It was a forlorn and unbelievable display of solidarity. Privately, the party boss is telling his NSW federal MPs that it is up to them what they do. The Labor party machine won’t get involved.]

  22. lizzie

    That is a journalist who cannot explain why all the leadership chatter has not materialised in action from the party. After all if the media chats about it, it has to be real.

  23. Schnappi

    Is “Mars Curiosity” different to Twitter.com? In that case, don’t know the answer.
    I thought you meant your twitter name was Mars Curiosity.

  24. William of the Holy Grail 6214

    Despite the size making it a dubious poll, doesn’t it deserve its own thread? I really don’t get a sense that WA Green and National parties popularity has halved!

  25. From Crikey:

    [University of Tasmania economist Peter Whish-Wilson was announced as the Greens’ next Tasmanian senator, replacing Bob Brown in the red house, this morning.]

    I know that it is banal, trite and nonsensical but I just love the surname. If he takes off policitally, no doubt he will get the nickname, ‘Whoosh-Wilson’.

  26. [kezza2
    Posted Friday, May 4, 2012 at 5:13 pm | Permalink
    mari & fiona

    priceless stories.

    I well remember my younger sister being told how her new boss liked his coffee.
    She replied: oh, okay, mine’s “white, no sugar”

    She never once got his coffee!
    And he’s quite a well-known former minister in Labor Victoria.
    He often got hers.
    *fk I miss her*

    mari
    the beach option
    figured out it is going to cost me too much at the moment.
    gotta sit it out for a while.

    re last night’s doona

    have to say, I had the best night’s sleep for months.
    (but I can’t tell you how much putting a doona cover on sends me into a fury)
    I can’t explain why.[
    Don’t worry it does me, too I am trying not to put the doona into the cover until I leave, at the moment it is just a cotton blanket and doona cover and so far perfectly warm, 16 days to go, but can put on winter jarmies as a back up, by the time I come back early September , hopefully won’t need to. My sister just flicks it in I don’t know how, obviously I wasn’t blessed with that capability. She lived in the cold climes
    Hope you get to the beach, went for a walk today and it was so lovely

  27. Leone,
    It was explained to me that the Pollie Pedal fundraiser had to provide everything for the participants. Abbott did not even supply his own bike, I was given to understand.

  28. lizzie

    Mars Curiosity is a twitter site I joined for info about the mars curiousy probe ,a proper twitter site,

  29. guytaur

    I’d read the name, but didn’t realise he worked for Tele.
    It seems to be a lot of words about not very much except he thinks that NSW Labor will work hard to save Burke and Bowen.
    What’s special about them, I wonder?

  30. Boerwar

    I know it’s tiring but keep onto it. An ACMA complaint was how Chris Smith got his after his ‘guess how many asylum seekers are being buried today’ phone competition. The old charmer that he is.

  31. [The most amusing coverage of the government’s decisions came from a froth-mouthed Greg “I never met a dictator I didn’t like” Sheridan, who declared it “the worst day for Australia’s national security since the fall of Saigon in 1975”. Why Sheridan (“George W. Bush may well be judged, ultimately, a great president”) stopped at Saigon isn’t clear; what prevented him from declaring it our blackest day since Gallipoli?]

    Keane of Crikey echoing my comments upstring about Mr Sheridan; but with more verve.

  32. lizzie
    Posted Friday, May 4, 2012 at 5:13 pm | Permalink
    Schnappi

    On the left of your Twitter “Home” screen, you will be presented with a short list of names as suggestions for you to “Follow”. If you’re interested, click on “Follow” and it will turn into “Following”. You will then see all Tweets by the people you are following.
    At the bottom left of that screen there is also a “Help” link which should get your started.]
    Schnappi give me your twitter name and I will follow you then you can follow me back if you want to, otherwise if easier follow me @randlight and I will follow back to start you off

  33. [In considering all this, it’s worthwhile remember that Defence spending is only partly about defending Australia (or as is more often the case, launching unprovoked invasions of poorer countries at the behest of our imperial overlords).]

    Oh dear. What a bore Mr Keane is. Echoing boring commentary by Bludgers about the same sort of thing over the centuries. I do hope he has his secret handshake ready.

  34. s o f

    Thanks. I will maintain the rage on this one. I aim to pursue this one to the bitter end.

    I’ll keep Bludgers posted.

  35. lizzie

    Mr Benson has to justify his pay check somehow. That article appears to me he must be hanging on by his fingernails. As for his mention of Bowen and Burke it might be they are the Press Favourites right now.

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