Newspoll quarterly breakdown

The Australian today brings us Newspoll’s regular quarterly breakdown of its federal polling by state, sex and age group. Compared with the last quarter of 2011, it finds Labor gained a point to lead 51-49 in South Australia, was steady at 50-50 in Victoria, cut the Coalition lead in New South Wales to 54-46 from 57-43 (59-41 in the July to September quarter), and took a point out of the still enormous Coalition leads in Queensland and Western Australia, which are now at 58-42 and 56-44. The Coalition’s two-party lead in the five main capitals is steady at 53-47 and down from 57-43 to 55-45 elsewhere.

Whereas last week’s Nielsen showed a dramatic widening in the gender gap between polls conducted in late February and late March, Newspoll records no such trend between its October-to-December and January-to-March surveys, which may of course conceal a very recent shift. It is interesting to note that the expectation Tony Abbott would poll badly among women was not realised in his earliest polls as Opposition Leader, but has been over time. Breaking it down by age group, the only change which skirts the roughly 3 per cent margins of error is among the 18-34s: Labor is up four points to 33 per cent, the Coalition down four points to 37 per cent and the Greens down three to 17 per cent.

Both leaders were down three on approval in New South Wales, Julia Gillard to 29 per cent and Tony Abbott to 33 per cent, but Abbott was up five in Queensland to 40 per cent. Abbott took a knock in Western Australia to be down five on approval to 31 per cent and up three on disapproval to 56 per cent. Preferred prime minister was essentially unchanged, although a shift in Gillard’s favour in South Australia – from 40-33 to 44-32 – pokes its head above the margin of error.

UPDATE: Oh yeah, Essential Research. As tends to be the case with polls these days, it’s very, very bad news for Labor, who have suffered a two-point shift away from them on two-party preferred compared with last week’s result – with the Coalition lead now at 57-43 – which is rare given that Essential publishes a two-week rolling average. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 50 per cent – a new high for them so far as Essential is concerned – with Labor down two to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent.

Further attitudinal questions show 73 per cent believe the government should delay returning the budget to surplus if that’s what is required to maintain services and invest in infrastructure, with only 12 per cent supporting cuts to services and tax increases to restore the budget surplus. Although it may be that many respondents can instead be restored by “economic management” 28 per cent blame the present government’s lack of it for the present deficit, with 59 per cent choosing four other options available (16 per cent showing awareness of “lower tax revenues because of the Global Financial Crisis”).

On the question of Tony Abbott’s proposed childcare rebate for nannies, 44 per cent are in favour and 33 per cent opposed. Sixty-eight per cent support means testing as a general principle, while 24 per cent believe “people should receive the same subsidies and benefits regardless of income”. A “party best at” question draws the intriguingly dissonant response of a 12-point advantage to Labor on “representing the interests of Australian working families”, but a 6-point advantage to Liberal on “representing the interests of you and people like you”.

Finally, 78 per cent of respondents believe workers should get a “higher hourly rate” on weekends against only 18 per cent opposed, though how much higher exactly remains a subject for further investigation.

UPDATE (16/4): This week’s Essential Research has the Coalition’s two-party lead narrowing from 57-43 to 56-44, from primary votes of 48% for the Coalition (down two), 31% for Labor (steady) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured are Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which have Julia Gillard’s approval steady at 32% and her disapproval down three to 58%, Tony Abbott’s respectively up two to 38% and down two to 50%, and Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister shifting from 40-37 to 38-36. Support for the National Broadband Network is up a point since February to a new high of 57% with opposition down three to 22%, and 46% saying they will either definitely or probably sign up for it. There is also a question on appropriate areas for federal and state responsibility, with the states only coming out heavily on top for public transport and “investing in regional areas”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,086 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdown”

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  1. It appears that the ALP latest catch phrase c/o Shorten is no longer ‘working families’ it is now ‘families and small businesses’

  2. hey Centre:

    I am happy to put a long range prediction out there.

    Poll result prediciton: BAD for the ALP
    Poll result prediction duration: Medium to Long term

    …lets see whether I am right!

  3. Finns #4994, just imagine if the unlicensed driver had also (or even instead) been caught “driving while appearing to be Aboriginal” , or, in Sydney “while appearing to be Lebanese”

    How could the Murdoch press have gone missing in action on this one? oh yes of course – silly me.

    A song for 2GB and the Daily Tele, courtesy of Mr Bruce Cockburn, is here:

  4. Rummel, in WA that carries a prison sentence for a second offence, if the licence is under suspension.

    Is this man that stupid?

  5. [Doesn’t George Brandis have a doctorate in law]

    No. He was a Senior Counsel of the Supreme Court of Queensland (a fancy barrister).

    Despite popular opinion, he’s a very sharp legal mind but will fashion his opinion to suit his political objective.

  6. [I am happy to put a long range prediction out there.

    Poll result prediciton: BAD for the ALP
    Poll result prediction duration: Medium to Long term

    …lets see whether I am right!]
    Of course you’d be happy to predict such a result. You’re a Lib.

  7. Fulvio Sammut

    [Is this man that stupid?]

    Yes, is it that hard to make sure your have ticked all the boxes when taking up a appointment such a police minister.

  8. Mod Lib, the polls are very soft at the moment. It could be more of a worry for the Liberals that Abbott’s figures are no better than Julia’s.

    The electorate will listen closer to the campaign, mind you, if the polls move better for Labor in the interim, Abbott is gone!

  9. Just got an invite to be in the Q&A audience, they will be debating Climate Change and have organised a stellar panel of eminant Climate Scientists, don’t miss it. Here are the panel of experts from their email to me:

    [We’ve got an exciting panel lined up for you:
    The stars of the documentary Former Liberal Senator Nick Minchin and the Founder of the Australian Youth Climate Coalition Anna Rose
    Mining magnate Clive Palmer
    Social researcher and writer Rebecca Huntley]

    Shame I live in Canberra and won’t be able to attend.

  10. Did Newspoll just cancel a poll and stay on the same fortnight pattern?

    I thought they were just delaying last week’s poll by a week to coincide with the budget…

  11. [Nothing to stop you recording your long range prediction too…]
    I don’t and won’t be making predictions 18 months out from any election. I really can’t see the point.

  12. Mind you Rummel, WA does have Rob Johnson as it’s police minister, a politician so idiotic even Don Randall, the prince of clown, ridicules him.

  13. Andrew Leigh did a piece about being a HC associate available as a PDF through his link (I hope):

    An analysis of the role, power and background of judges associates

  14. Fulvio Sammut

    Well i hope CanDo uses a bit of Sun Tzu on his troops and takes a few heads of those who dont pro form until perfect order is installed.

  15. When Q and A does there audience break up next week it should be in two ways.
    Green supporters and the ASIO agents that are watching them.

  16. Clutching at straws Gary.

    Abbott Coalition’s last 6 months of polling is rock solid.

    It doesn’t mean it won’t shift at some stage.

  17. Patricia@4834 – thanks for the link to the Carnarvon project. I did go looking and found the ABC piece but not much else yet. I’ll check my ALP newsletters folder to see if I missed it somewhere.

  18. Fess #4998

    No. Brandis does have a perfectly respectable BA Hons, LLB Hons, plus an Oxford BCL (which really is a Masters, despite the B for Bachelors in the title).

    But so do lots of people I used to study, or work, or drink with, or happily would do so. Including (in the last category) Malcolm Turnbull, a much better lawyer.

    A PhD in law? No.

    Dr HV Evatt MA LLD, he most certainly aint.

    His ignorance and error in some of the basics of areas of law that should be bread and butter for a putative attorney general is really appalling. Things that would have been (and were) obvious to Ruddock (better man than he appeared to many) let alone Williams (would have been a very good HC appointment) . .

  19. Centre. The next best lock to Ron Coote was the reserve grade lock at Souths, Paul Sait. The second best hooker to Elwyn Walters was the reserve grade hooker at Souths, George Piggins. I didn’t /don’t support Souths but the teams they had in that era of late 60s early 70s we won’t see the like of again. And they didn’t buy in established players from other clubs which is my pet hate (except for Dennis Pittard).

  20. Can Do has a problem. Besides finding a new police minister. The actions of this man who kept this secret during the election campaign point to a culture in th party.
    No wonder Can Do is micro managing. He knows better than to trust. His team.

  21. [Abbott Coalition’s last 6 months of polling is rock solid.]

    didn’t look rock solid when Morgan had ALP ahead, and things also tightened when Rudd challenged and people started to engage.

    Coalition will remain soft whilst ever they are led by the unpopular :mrgreen:

  22. Mod Lib,

    The Gillard/Labor government is moving forward with the implementation of its policies.

    At the end of the day, hopefully, the electorate will decide the merits of this government on its results.

    If they do, the Liberals will spend another term in opposition. That’ why the MSM are relentless in their criticisms of Gillard.

  23. [Gillard 39 (-1) Abbott 41 (+4)]

    Abbott is shinning up nicely. Having christine milne on the news for three days saying everything bad is Abbotts fault would be worth at least two points.

  24. [Abbott Coalition’s last 6 months of polling is rock solid.

    It doesn’t mean it won’t shift at some stage.]
    Then it aint rock solid if it shifts.

  25. Garrett needs to do sales 101

    No one would ever sell anything with

    “But Emma, we now have a national quality framework for childcare”

    Features, Advantages, Benefits Mr Garrett. Features, Advantages, Benefits.

    Seriously, who is advising these people.

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