9.25pm. ABC computer has Maryborough back to LNP gain, after lapsing to LNP ahead for a while there.
9.07pm. Though as Antony notes, what has saved Curtis Pitt in Mulgrave is the surge to Katter’s Australian Party in north Queensland, much of which has exhausted.
9.05pm. Labor members who distinguished themselves by suffering swings of less than 10 per cent: Di Farmer in Bulimba, who has her nose in front; Jason O’Brien, whose 4.5 per cent swing against was good but not good enough; Cameron Dick in Greenslopes, likewise good but not good enough; Curtis Pitt, who has had a big personal win in retaining Mulgrave against a swing of 6.6 per cent; Anna Bligh in South Brisbane, who has actually held South Brisbane quite comfortably; Mandy Johnstone in Townsville; and Simon Finn, who might yet hold in Yeerongpilly in the face of a 9 per cent swing, but is nonetheless behind.
9.04pm. Antony cautious about the LNP winning Maryborough.
8.49pm. ABC computer promotes Bulimba and Mulgrave from ALP ahead to ALP retain. Of the eight seats where they’re in front, there are now seven down as “ALP gain”, with only Mackay remaining as “ALP ahead”. Waterford has gone from “LNP ahead” to “LNP gain”. By this reckoning, Labor’s absolute best case scenario is now nine seats.
8.39pm. ABC computer has dialled Maryborough back from LNP gain to LNP ahead.
8.25pm. The KAP may yet have an outside hope in Thuringowa if Labor preferences favour them strongly. The primary votes are 36.0 per cent for the LNP, 30.6 per cent for the KAP and 27.4 per cent for labor. Antony Green appears not to think so though. Bob Katter sounding bullish, for what it’s worth.
8.18pm. Sorry, got confused there – it has stayed on eight. Mulgrave now up from ALP ahead to ALP retain.
8.12pm. ABC now down to seven seats with Labor ahead: retaining Bundamba, Inala, Rockhampton, South Brisbane and Woodridge, ahead in Bulimba, Mackay and Mulgrave. LNP ahead in Waterford and Yeerongpilly. Everything else compared for the LNP, except Mount Isa and Dalrympe for Katter’s Australian Party, Nicklin and Gladstone retained by independents.
8.10pm. ABC computer now calling independent Chris Foley’s seat of Maryborough for the LNP.
7.56pm. ABC computer now has Labor ahead in only eight seats.
7.45pm. As noted by Antony, the KAP has not made huge gains out of coal seam gas in the Darling Downs: its strength remains very much off the back of Katter in the north.
7.44pm. Antony Green not buying Seeney’s line that Peter Wellington is in trouble in Nicklin.
7.42pm. ABC calling Ipswich West for LNP.
7.41pm. ABC calling South Brisbane for Anna Bligh.
7.31pm. Of the four independents, only Liz Cunningham in Gladstone is safe. Close contest in Maryborough between independent incumbent Chris Foley and LNP challenger Anne Maddern. Dissonance between the ABC computer (IND retain) and what Jeff Seeney says (LNP looking good) with Peter Wellington’s seat of Nicklin. LNP easily recovers Burnett, where Rob Messenger quit the party mid-term. Pretty clear I think that the KAP will win Mount Isa and Dalrymple, but no more.
7.30pm. The ABC website’s predictions columns has swung into action. Bundamba, Inala, Rockhampton and Woodridge, and is ahead in Bulimba, Mackay, Mulgrave, Nudgee and South Brisbane. They could conceivably win Logan, Mundingburra, Springwood and Waterford, but there are too few figures in from them. They are behind in Cook, Lytton, Townsville and Yeerongpilly, but not gone yet.
7.28pm. Jeff Seeney sounding confident about Nicklin, but the ABC computer is calling it for Peter Wellington.
7.24pm. With a quarter of the vote counted, the ABC computer has Anna Bligh edging back ahead in South Brisbane. But clearly Andrew Fraser and Cameron Dick are gone.
7.16pm. ABC’s two-party preferred projection is about 64-36, so the exit polls are looking good.
7.15pm. ABC computer projection, when bold calls are made where one or other party is merely “ahead”, now has Labor down to 10 from 14 earlier.
7.14pm. ABC computer graphic says three seats for KAP, but I can’t see anything beyond Mount Isa and Dalrymple.
7.13pm. Carl Rackemann (KAP) appears to be falling well short in Nanango; LNP’s Deb Frecklington to win comfortably.
7.07pm. Spare a thought for Peter Beattie’s old seat of Brisbane Central: he held it by 25 per cent after the 2001 election, ABC computer now calling it for LNP (results on site lagging behind what we’re getting on television).
7.06pm. Oh yeah, Ashgrove. ABC computer has Campbell Newman romping home by 9 per cent.
7.05pm. Peter Wellington firming up in Nicklin.
7.02pm. Antony’s casualty list: Everton, Broadwater, Cook, Barron River, Townsville North, Whitsunday, Southport, Townsville, Cairns, Mansfield, Kallangur, Pine Rivers, Mount Ommaney, Burleigh, Pumicestone, Mount Coot-tha, Redcliffe, Brisbane Central, Albert, Mundingburra, Greenslopes, Ashgrove, Murrumba, Stafford, Thuringowa, Algester, Stretton, Sunnybank, Lytton.
6.54pm. Courtesy of Psephos in comments, Labor expects to lose Capalaba, which you would expect given the overall swing: the margin is 9.7 per cent.
6.52pm. Peter Wellington with a slight primary vote lead in Nicklin, but booth-matching shows a huge and decisive swing to the LNP. Probably want more figures though.
6.51pm. Anna Bligh trailing on the primary vote in South Brisbane, and slightly behind on the primary vote. But Greens preferences might save her.
6.49pm. Antony cites a swing of 13 per cent, placing the result nearer Newspoll than the exit polls which had it slightly higher. However, it may yet change. The LNP has recovered Beaudesert, where its member Aidan McLindon had defected to the KAP, which was not unexpected.
6.47pm. Nothing appearing in the “predictions” column on the ABC results page, which is bothersome because it’s the best way to follow the action when seats are falling by the bucketload.
6.42pm. As Antony notes, early results hard to read exactly because of small rural booth results: assumptions are being made about Katter’s Australian Party preferences, which constitute a considerable share of the vote. However, the ABC computer is already set to tick over to a majority for the LNP. More than 20 seats have fallen, and it’s happening too quickly for me to keep up.
6.32pm. ABC computer already calling 22 seats for the LNP and one for Labor.
6.30pm. Jeff Seeney claims Katter’s Australian Party vote well short of what they would need on small booths.
6.26pm. Two small booths in from Dalrymple: very early days of course, but encouraging for KAP incumbent Shane Knuth on 50.0 per cent.
5.19pm. Sky’s exit poll shows a 15.3 per cent swing. They appear to have done the right thing this time and told us what the swing was, rather than publishing a bewildering two-party preferred figure without telling us what seats were polled, as they have done in the past. These were the five most marginal seats: Chatsworth and Everton in Brisbane, Broadwater on the Gold Coast, Cook on the Cape York Peninsula and Barron River in Cairns.
5.10pm. Peter Black at Essential Research relates on Twitter that a Galaxy exit poll conducted for Channel Nine has the LNP’s two-party lead at 63-37.
4.40pm. Closure of polls still over an hour away, but Sky News has published its first exit poll results, only providing material on the most important factor in determining vote choice. As usual, these are hard to read, because they apparently target only the five most marginal seats. If this is to be taken literally, they have chosen seats which are pretty meaningless in the context of this election: all will be easily won by the LNP. For what it’s worth, they have the cost of living at 69 per cent, delivery of state servies at 63 per cent, carbon tax at 44 per cent, mining tax at 35 per cent and Campbell Newman’s business dealings at 17 per cent. I presume respondents were asked in turn whether each of these issues were important to them.
289
It is not a good election for the Greens. It is a massive swing to the conservatives change of Government election. There is no upper house with PR for the Greens to get elected to and the lower house is not PR either. There are no state Greens MPs.
Pephos – we need new strategists for 2013 – not Bruce Hawker if he was the person who advised Anna Bligh to go so negatively and hard against Newman, without concrete evidence to hand to the voters before the election. It will be too late if he’s found in breach now.
Yes, the Greens will be crying themselves to sleep over not dominating the normally Greens stronghold that is the QLD parliament…
p2
Bluey decided to have nothing at all to do with the Queensland election. He made an early prediction that Labor was gone and left it at that. He is saving his energy for for the main event. These preliminaries are mere distractions.
Joe6pack,
[ scorpio
Settle petals. It’s only an election. Tomorrow the sun will still rise, the moon set or whatever usually happens.
hey i said that 2 hrs ago ]
Sorry buddy! I missed that (had to take my son to work) but it is good to know that there is at least two of us that are not getting overtaken by emotion over something that has happened before and will happen again!
Unbelievable result.
[Pephos – we need new strategists for 2013 – not Bruce Hawker if he was the person who advised Anna Bligh to go so negatively and hard against Newman, without concrete evidence to hand to the voters before the election.]
That was an absolutely stupid move.
BW,
Oh well Ill just watch red Kerry and drink it myself.
As Ms Atkinson said, as we’re all thinking the same thing there would, wtte, be no need for shouting. The Australian’s rep has been exchanged for Mr Dutton.
Mr Gilbert, Mr Borbidge, Mr Dutton, Ms Atkinson.
A classy quartet of talentless blatherskites.
Well, it’s only Queensland.
p2
Bluey believes in autonomous decision making. I too am enjoying a red.
DWH
I am inclined to believe the result.
Katter Party coming 2nd in Thuringowa now to LNP…. Preferences will flow from Labor however.
Enough to win? I don’t know… but I sure hope so
ABC predicting 10 seats for Labor, which is a lacrosse team.
Thanks BB,
the Largest National Paperbag manufacturing Co has commenced 24/7 production
Scratch Townsville, add Rockhampton.
Seats which Labor won in 1974 but has lost tonight: Bundaberg, Cairns, Sandgate, probably Lytton.
Will the Greens and Labor learn that splitting the centre-left vote is not a sound long-term electoral strategy in first-past-the-post electoral systems?
Or are they going to have to experience lots more electoral floggings before they put two and two together?
I bet the reactionaries hope that the Greens and Labor never do twig.
John Mickel on local ABC radio putting all of the blame for the result on Anna Bligh. Of course he’s the retiring Labor speaker. He says that she should not remain as leader. His old seat of Logan is Labor heartland and is going to LNP.
I think it was Dennis Atkins who predicted 70 to 80 LNP seats and that is exactly the range the ABC computer currently has it.
I need to throw up now. Bloody Bruce Flegg is speaking
[“Bad luck truthy. There will be very few preferences flowing from ALP to Katter in an optional preferential system.”]
Yes this will be a problem, lets hope Labor voters voted below the line!
THE NEW OPPOSITION LEADER SHOULD BE Jessica van Vonderen!
She could lead Labor from outside the parliament, and then run for, and win, Ashgrove at the next election.
@294
Brand problems only last so long. The Coalition had a big brand problem after 2007, where they were out of power everywhere, and Campbell Newman was in fact the highest elected Liberal office holder.
I’d expect Labor’s association with the Bligh government to fade as people’s memories fade, as always happens, and seeing as I don’t see the Greens rising to much prominence in Queensland, the ALP will remain the primary alternative to the LNP
[ABC predicting 10 seats for Labor, which is a lacrosse team.]
or a soccer team after somebody got red carded 😉
Carey Moore,
[Yes, the Greens will be crying themselves to sleep over not dominating the normally Greens stronghold that is the QLD parliament… ]
When I went to vote today at a two electorate booth, the Greens had one “one” cornflute for one electorate nailed to a stump, a plastic dish with about 6 green lemons in it and about 80 how to vote cards under a rock on the stump.
Boy, I reckon that level of support to the progressive side of politics is close to impossible to match.
Great work Greens. Hope you enjoy 3 years of Clive Palmer raping & pillaging Queensland’s natural resources and pocketing the proceeds.
Ms Jones has phoned Mr Campbell conceding the seat of Ashgrove.
[Yes this will be a problem, lets hope Labor voters voted below the line!]
Where was the line on your ballot paper, truthy?
Bruce Hawker should be banished to Siberia. He has just presided over two complete disasters
The Queensland voters seem to be in a vindictive, even vicious mood.
[Yes this will be a problem, lets hope Labor voters voted below the line!]
Which line would that be?
[ABC predicting 10 seats for Labor, which is a lacrosse team.]
Rann had 10 in 1993, but that was 10 out of 47!
He managed to increase it to 21 in 1997.
[Katter Party coming 2nd in Thuringowa now to LNP…. Preferences will flow from Labor however.
Enough to win? I don’t know… but I sure hope so]
Not likely, I’d think. 62% of provincial Labor votes were 1-only in 2009. To overcome the LNP, KAP would need to gain about 40% from Labor’s vote when their preferences are distributed – a distribution of, say, 10% LNP, 40% KAP, 50% exhaust.
[“Blimey! You gotta take your hat off for Peter Beattie. He is virtually the “only” spokesperson for Labor on a blatantly hostile panel and they are being so provocative “]
Yes I give Peter Beattie 1000 points and Rob Springborg -1000 for being a complete wanker.
He’s winning… and yet he’s STILL whining. Can someone please tell him to shut up?
[The Magical Liopleurodon
Posted Saturday, March 24, 2012 at 8:48 pm | Permalink
@294
Brand problems only last so long. ]
Agreed, but how long?
In nearly every state and federal poll the ALP is at 30% ish (in most its in the 20s actually).
There is a major issue and there is precious little insight from the ALP re this issue.
[Great work Greens. Hope you enjoy 3 years of Clive Palmer raping & pillaging Queensland’s natural resources and pocketing the proceeds.]
Umm, I think it was the ALP which lost a sh!iload of seats, not the Greens.
Sorry laurence… like most QLD’ers we didn’t even know his name
@328 what was the first?
[Bruce Hawker should be banished to Siberia. He has just presided over two complete disasters]
Well, you have to balance that against him helping S.A. Labor retain majority government in 2010 which was basically electoral thievery.
William… i’m taking the glass is half full approach
The ABC TV count in Thuringowa is more up to date and shows the two quite a bit closer on the primary vote. But Antony still sure the LNP will win.
All I know is that a result like this is not good for democracy. The 2001 election resut for the ALP was one thing and this is a whole lt worse.
Interesting to her what spins on this result – can just hear TA saying – we want an election NOW!
Listening to the comments on the ABC24 (refuse to watch on Sly News) it is clear that there has been no mention in the resut of Federal issues. Look forward to big ears spinning it that way tho.
[In nearly every state and federal poll the ALP is at 30% ish (in most its in the 20s actually).
There is a major issue and there is precious little insight from the ALP re this issue.]
It’s just a regular changing of the electoral tide combined with there being a rare Labor federal government which has encouraged even more voters to vote conservative.
Buffalo Bill said, “Well, it’s only Queensland”,
Gee, trolling much dude 🙂
Lawrence Springborg is the most despressed looking “winner” I have ever seen.
Seriously what is this guys problem, he looks like he’s cat just got run over
”
The Queensland voters seem to be in a vindictive, even vicious mood.”
Until they realise that they have voted in a party with no opposition. Oh wait. They won’t hear about that because Rupert and the ABC won’t allow that message to get out. Anyway, I’m rich so I don’t give a bugger what they do. Or where.
[Well, you have to balance that against him helping S.A. Labor retain majority government in 2010 which was basically electoral thievery.]
Showy, have you not learned anything. QLD ALP should have won the last election. that’s why the debacle tonight.
The effect I mentioned earlier re the 2PP predictions and the actual seems to be washing out as more booths report their 2PP figures. The difference is now one way in one electorate and the other way in the next.
GeeWizz, spot on mate, Lurch from the Addams Family had a more engaging personality 🙂
[Showy, have you not learned anything. QLD ALP should have won the last election. that’s why the debacle tonight.]
This makes no sense!
GW
[Lawrence Springborg is the most despressed looking “winner” I have ever seen.
Seriously what is this guys problem, he looks like he’s cat just got run over]
He’s looking at Cando and thinking That should have been ME