The Australian brings results of a Newspoll survey conducted from Tuesday to Saturday in Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott’s regional NSW seats of New England and Lyne. The polls targeted about 500 voters each, producing margins of error of a little under 4.5 per cent. As expected, the results indicate a plunge in support for the incumbents since the election and their subsequent decision to back a Labor minority government. In New England, the poll has Tony Windsor at 33 per cent compared with 61.9 per cent at the election, with the Nationals at 41 per cent compared with 25.2 per cent. In Lyne, Rob Oakeshott’s primary vote is at 26 per cent compared with 47.1 per cent at the 2010 election, and the Nationals are at 47 per cent compared with 34.4 per cent.
Determining two-candidate preferred results for individual electorates in circumstances so radically different from the previous election is problematic, and Newspoll has done the best that could be done under the circumstances by publishing both previous-election and respondent-allocated measures. In New England, the previous election measure has Windsor and the Nationals tied at 50-50. Unfortunately we do not have a full set of primary vote figures at this stage, but it would seem to me from the two-candidate result that the “others” vote (excluding Windsor, Nationals, Labor and Greens) must be in the mid-teens. UPDATE: Full tables here courtesy of GhostWhoVotes – “others” is at 14 per cent in Lyne and 13 per cent in New England. At the 2010 election it was only 1.2 per cent, that being the combined total for One Nation and the Citizens Electoral Council. To apply these parties’ preference distribution to such a large chunk of the vote is obviously imprecise at best. The respondent-allocated preference measure has Windsor trailing 53-47, but this has problems of its own – in particular it requires respondents to make up their own mind, when many will in fact follow how-to-vote cards.
In Lyne, Rob Oakeshott trails 62-38 on respondent-allocated preferences and 55-45 on the previous election results. Similarly to the New England poll, the latter figure appears to have been obtained by amplifying a mid-teens “others” vote through the 2010 preference distribution of one independent who polled 0.7 per cent. While this is by any measure a depressing set of figures for Oakeshott, it is a good deal better for him than a ReachTel automated phone poll conducted in August, which had the Nationals leading 55 per cent to 15 per cent on the primary vote. That poll was rightly criticised at the time for asking about the carbon tax and pokies reform before getting to voting intention. It may also raise doubts about the precision of automated phone polling, which in this country at least has a patchy record (though it seems to be a different story in the United States).
Another difficulty with polls for these two seats is that it is not yet clear which candidates the Nationals will be running, which can have a very significant bearing on regional seats especially. After initially stating he wasn’t interested, the party’s state leader Andrew Stoner has recently said he would “never say never” to the prospect of running in Lyne, with earlier reports suggesting he was being “courted” to make such a move with a view to replacing Warren Truss as federal leader. This was said to be partly motivated by a desire to block a similar move by Barnaby Joyce, who has declared his interest in New England. However, Tony Abbott has said the candidate in Lyne from 2010, Port Macquarie medical specialist David Gillespie, would get “wholehearted support” if he wanted to run again. According to a flattering profile of Abbott by Tom Dusevic in The Weekend Australian, Gillespie is a “boyhood friend” of Abbott’s.
Newspoll also sought approval ratings for the two independents and gauged opinion on their decisions to support the Labor minority government and the carbon tax legislation. This provided one heartening result for Tony Windsor, who retains the approval of 50 per cent of his constituents with 44 per cent disapproving (UPDATE: Sorry, got that the wrong way around). Rob Oakeshott’s respective ratings are 38 per cent and 54 per cent. Voters in Lyne were the more hostile to their member’s support for the Labor government: 32 per cent were supportive and 61 opposed, against 36 per cent and 54 per cent in New England. The results on the carbon tax seem to have been effectively identical, with respective opposition of 72 per cent and 71 per cent. Only 22 per cent of respondents in Lyne were supportive; The Australian’s article neglects to provide a figure for New England, but it can be presumed to have been very similar.
UPDATE: The weekly Essential Research has the two-party preferred steady at 55-45, although Labor is off a point on the primary to 32 per cent with the Coalition and the Greens steady on 48 per cent and 11 per cent respectively. My favourite of the supplementary questions, as it was at my suggestion, gauges current opinion of major reforms of the past few decades, which gives a resounding thumbs-up to compulsory superannuation and Medicare, strong support to floating the dollar and free trade agreements, a fairly modest majority in favour of the GST. Privatisations, however, are opposed in retrospect as well as prospect, although reversing those already conducted has only bare majority support. For some reason though, more support regulating the dollar than thought it was a bad idea in the first place, and a big majority favour increasing trade protection. Other questions relate to a republic (41 per cent for, 33 per cent against), the Commonwealth (47 per cent believe membership of benefit) and succession to the throne (61 per cent believe it should be gender-neutral) and who is to blame for the Qantas dispute (management by and large).
Yep
John Waters is good value. I posted video of him recounting a ghost story at 184. Highly entertaining
If you are as so called compassionate as you claim to be Mod Lib LOL, you should be critical of the very Party you support.
FACTS;
– Rudd changed Howards laws,
– the boats kept coming,
– the Liberals kept making it a political issue.
Yes, it’s your mob who is to blame and no one else.
Why do they make it a political issue?
Because it delivers them votes!
Stop pretending to take the high moral ground here, you blame Gillard for the sole purpose that you want your Party re-elected.
Hi William
Why do you give any credence to Morgan Face to Face or their respondents allocations whatsoever. The Poll is always out of sync with the other reliable polls whether by moving average or almost any criteria. Essential has for more substance and a sensible to week moving average. Personally with Essential which I subscribe to , I just add 1 to 2 per cent age points to the LNP 2 pp and I reckon that’s what the real position is because of the intrinsic left leaning bias of the poll.
Newspoll is the most reliable clearly because of the sample size , experience of the questioners and methodology used followed by Nielsen with a slight bias to the LNP.
BTW I think you overweight emphasis on people’s preferences at the last election. Voters just are nor as rusted on anymore and their volatility is greater than at any time in electoral history.
You appear to give fairly low credibility to Galaxy polling why is that given their samples are quite large.Do you think they have an in built News Limited/ LN P bias?
Given the likelihood of a few more similar polls for the government in spite of happy times such as Queens and Presidents visits how long until Julia resigns because of ill health sick mum or dad or whatever reason/pretext they can think of. After all not much point of having a doctorate in electoral studies unless you can make a half decent prediction every now and then.
Mod Lib,
The lie in your argument is the refusal to acknowledge that the purpose of the Malaysian Solution is actually to stop the boats coming. AS would not be prepared to spend huge amounts of money on taking a chance on boating to Australia when all that would happen is they would end up at the end of a very long queue in Malaysia.
So the focus on the “rendition” is the focus on the hole in the dough nut. Keeps you occupied, but hungry in the end.
Both ACA and TT are demonising the AS this week. Great stuff.
[Yep]
Mod Lib, then you’re supporting the wrong party mate. Those ideals have NEVER been at the forefront of the Liberal Party and never will.
But do continue with the BS – woe is me on AS! Woe is me on the poorly paid! Woe is me with the disadvantaged! Oh woe!!! Woe!!!
[Stop pretending to take the high moral ground here, you blame Gillard for the sole purpose that you want your Party re-elected.]
I don’t bother posting much about Gillard these days as you guys haven’t kept up to speed with the Australian sentiment about her. My views haven’t changed- shes a schmuck.
If I was just repeating Lib lines I wouldnt also have been posting how I think Abbott is a schmuck now would I? Also, I think Swan is a schmuck, and so too is Hockey. How about that Centre? Pretty bipartisan I would think.
In 5 years we can discuss how hopeless this government has been, but at the moment its too raw. The death is too close in time to discuss it appears.
Haven’t had your distemper shots in time again, have you, Stanny.
You’re one sick puppy.
@ MOd Lib/658,
They’ve passed the GFC first time and passed what over 200 bills?
And you call this government crap?
You’ve lost it.
[655
Greensborough Growler
Posted Monday, October 24, 2011 at 10:42 pm | Permalink
Mod Lib,
The lie in your argument is the refusal to acknowledge that the purpose of the Malaysian Solution is actually to stop the boats coming. AS would not be prepared to spend huge amounts of money on taking a chance on boating to Australia when all that would happen is they would end up at the end of a very long queue in Malaysia.
So the focus on the “rendition” is the focus on the hole in the dough nut. Keeps you occupied, but hungry in the end.
]
Or the fact that the Gravytrain of the Refugee Industry would suddenly dry up and they would be forced to deal with the mundane cases in the legal system where there is a shortage of lawyers.
jauncided view @ 559a:
[The guy who just died:]
No, you’re confusing old Jobe with the much older Methuselah.
confessions
[Well, the UNHCR endorsed the govt’s deal with Malaysia, and noted it was an important first step towards regional processing.]
I hope this is an inadvertant, albeit repeated by you several times, untruth.
As you did on the weekend, you are glossing together rendition of the unfortunate 800; and efforts to improve conditions in Malaysia for asylum seekers.
THe UNHCR said the High Court decision in M70 is consistent with its position on the rendition of the 800.
If you repeat the same untruth again, it will be tantamount to trolling.
[If I was just repeating Lib lines I wouldnt also have been posting how I think Abbott is a schmuck now would I? Also, I think Swan is a schmuck, and so too is Hockey. How about that Centre? Pretty bipartisan I would think.]
Yes, they’re all schmucks. And you are the one true knight, with brilliant gleaming armour, ready to show all moderates the way! As long as the issue is hurting Labor, you’ll champion it. As long as the shoe is on the other foot, you’ll wear it. And as long as the shit is on the other side of the fence, you’ll gladly say it smells of roses.
GG:
So just post once that you think Howard’s policies were good because they stopped the boats and I will leave you alone.
If Gillard’s approach is good because it stops the boats (which it didn’t) then Howard’s approach much have been fantastic because it stopped the boats. You never applaud Howard, though, just Gillard…I know I can work out why, its on the tip of my fingers….just give me a couple more minutes….I know I should know this one….
[Why do you give any credence to Morgan Face to Face or their respondents allocations whatsoever.]
Because it comes out on Friday, when it’s invariably time for a new post. I share the same reservations about them as everybody else, and I wrote the book on not giving credence to their preference allocations.
[You appear to give fairly low credibility to Galaxy polling]
The other book I wrote was on the high credibility of Galaxy polling.
[The Malaysia plan had, and has, the eager support of the UNHCR.]
Hehe 🙂
[The Malaysia plan would bring larger numbers of deserving refugees to Australia, more safely, and without a devil-take-the-hindmost struggle to scrabble money to pay people-smugglers.]
Bring them without sending 800 asylum seekers to Malaysia then. I would support that.
[So just post once that you think Howard’s policies were good because they stopped the boats and I will leave you alone.]
If that were true I would post it but we both know those policies did nothing of the kind.
[Howard’s approach much have been fantastic because it stopped the boats.]
It didn’t. Next
[After all not much point of having a doctorate in electoral studies unless you can make a half decent prediction every now and then.]
there aint any election at the mo
🙁
[Occupy Sydney is the dream of a few men and women who have come together at this time because they are sick and tired of the way they are being shafted and stabbed in the back at almost every level of Government.]
So says the ‘About Us’ tag at the Occupy Sydney website. This sounds exactly like something Angry Anderson would scream at a revolting peoples protest.
It would be nice if they could articulate the ways in which they feel they are being shafted by govt. Reading through their ‘People Power’ stuff, they wonder who owns the RBA (suggesting they’d be happier if the RBA came back under govt control), and a bizarre post about world government, and blaming Bob Brown, Gillard, Rudd and the unions, and an even more bizarre post announcing the day Australia died (Oct 12 for anyone who’s wondering).
Is this it? If so, this is the polar opposite of the revolting people protesting world govt at the hands of the IPCC, and 2GB pensioners huddled in their living rooms in fear their STB might explode in their faces.
[Or the fact that the Gravytrain of the Refugee Industry would suddenly dry up and they would be forced to deal with the mundane cases in the legal system where there is a shortage of lawyers.]
Can you direct me to this gravy train Frank? I do most of my work for them for free actually…
[gusface
Posted Monday, October 24, 2011 at 10:50 pm | Permalink
After all not much point of having a doctorate in electoral studies unless you can make a half decent prediction every now and then.
there aint any election at the mo
]
He can predict who will be the next President of the ALP 🙂
[Mod Lib
Posted Monday, October 24, 2011 at 10:51 pm | Permalink
Or the fact that the Gravytrain of the Refugee Industry would suddenly dry up and they would be forced to deal with the mundane cases in the legal system where there is a shortage of lawyers.
Can you direct me to this gravy train Frank? I do most of my work for them for free actually…
]
What about allied industries like SERCO etc. Why do you think they tender for the contracts ?
Was it Mod Lib who predicted Gillard’s demise would happen last August?
629
Sorry. That sentence is a tad under-punctuated. I shall restructure that information.
Section 59 says that “the Queen may” and that means that it is a power specifically given to the Queen, so it would be hard for the High Court to rule that “the Queen cannot”. So that any challenge would be based on the advice to the Queen and the High Court tends to avoid ruling on issues of Constitutional Convention as not in the power of the Judiciary.
If Section 59 said “the Queen in Council” then there may be a case about what “in Council” meant.
Got to be kidding about discussing how hopeless this government has been in 5 years Mod Lib.
Like Hawke and Keating were, and how Rudd will be remembered for avoiding a certain recession?
I’ll come back to Julia’s policies, there are plenty there.
Now, answer this:
1. If Gillard dropped her policy, will the Libs continue to criticise the government for not stopping the boats?
2. If Abbott dropped his policy, will Labor criticise the Liberals for not being able to process people off-shore?
You see why you and that dispicable opportunistic party of yours are a pack of hypocrites? 🙂
[Gary
Posted Monday, October 24, 2011 at 10:53 pm | Permalink
Was it Mod Lib who predicted Gillard’s demise would happen last August?]
I have a bet with RUA that she will be gone by mid 2012, but I suspect its much sooner than that actually. Obviously, could be completely wrong, perhaps she will contest the next election. There could be nothing better for the Liberal Party than another Gillard campaign so I don’t really mind either way!
Now, off to bed as it appears there is no Newspoll release tonight…
[You see why you and that dispicable opportunistic party of yours are a pack of hypocrites?]
😉
[Now, answer this:
1. If Gillard dropped her policy, will the Libs continue to criticise the government for not stopping the boats?
2. If Abbott dropped his policy, will Labor criticise the Liberals for not being able to process people off-shore?
You see why you and that dispicable opportunistic party of yours are a pack of hypocrites?]
Yes, you are absolutely right.
It just highlights the tangled web the ALP have weaved for themselves.
Hoist. Petard. You join the dots…
674
The Greens are against both the tendering out of detention facilities and mandatory detention/detention refugee processing as are many in the left of the ALP. Many of the small “l’ liberal opponents of the Malaysia solution are against mandatory detention too.
[Now, off to bed as it appears there is no Newspoll release tonight…]
sweet dreams you moderate you
Good night Mod Lib.
Hope your liver is better in the morning.
Mod Lib @ 680
Hypocrite!
You got to be good to get away with something over here 😉
[If you repeat the same untruth again, it will be tantamount to trolling.]
Shorter jv: Only post things I agree with, or I’ll call you a troll.
7.30 report had a segment on the Occupy movement in Australia. Transcript is available.
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2011/s3347002.htm
GG
You are offended by my use of ‘rendition’?
This government is way into words with meanings worse than ‘rendition’ as it tries to outdo the opposition in cruelty. You may not like it but it is the correct legal term. The whole political scam was intended to be under Australian law – once:
[In law, rendition is a “surrender” or “handing over” of persons or property, particularly from one jurisdiction to another.]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rendition_(law)
[Many of the small “l’ liberal opponents of the Malaysia solution are against mandatory detention too.]
Name them.
Mod Lib,
Gillard’s policy has not actually been tried. So, exclamations of failure are somewhat premature. Remember she is advocating off shore processing in Malaysia. This has not yet passed the Parliament due to Tony Abbott and the “Mod Liberals” intransigence, due more to their political opportunism than supporting their own published policies.
As for Howard, towing back the boats to Indonesia is no longer acceptable to the Indonesians, TPV’s were a disaster, and Nauru is acknowledged by anyone of any intelligence as simply a pit stop on the way to Australia.
On top of that, the push factors were not there.
Just went back and had a look at when Ghost posted the indies info last night – he published after the results went live in the paper online. Same as two weeks ago.
Spencer may have been right and Ghost has been nabbed by News Ltd who were apparently trying to plug the leak.
In music, a rendition is the singing of a song, usually written by someone else, and usually intended to convey the message of the song writer, with no appreciation of the songwriter’s intent.
[In law, rendition is a “surrender” or “handing over” of persons or property, particularly from one jurisdiction to another.]
Do the asylum seekers in question ever enter this jurisdiction?
How do you propose to do that, then?
The problem seems to be that the boats come. Now, of course a number of boats are going to come – we’re a good country, and a desirable destination. We wouldn’t want to stop being a desirable destination; the only way to do that is to make the country worse.
So, you have to do the right thing by genuine asylum seekers, while at the same time discouraging boats as their method of arrival.
Nauru is silly, even if it was approved by the High Court. It slows things down a bit, but a sizeable majority of those who go there end up resettled either here or New Zealand. So Nauru discourages nothing.
On the face of it, the Malaysia solution sounds workable. It makes some sort of reality out of this idea that there’s a queue. If you come by boat, into Malaysia and join the queue. In return, a commensurate amount of asylum seekers already in Malaysia come to Australia. You’d think that all these people ranting and raving about queue jumpers would love an idea like that.
But you don’t like that one. So I’d like to hear what you’ve got in mind. How do we discourage the boats while fulfilling our obligations?
688
Are we role playing with you as Thatcher and me a Negus?
OK, then Tom, name just ten.
confessions
[Shorter jv: Only post things I agree with, or I’ll call you a troll.]
That again is an untruth. I value informed disagreement.
My point was that you have been called out on that gloss line about the UNHCR and Malaysia several times, and yet you repeat it, without rebuttal evidence.
At what point does relentess and unresponsive spin become trolling, that is the question.
[Now can any one from Team left tell me why Gillard will not support gay marriage? I support it so there cant be that much opposition in Labor to cause gillard trouble. Or does Gillard really not support it from a personal stand point.]
Yo make a mistake in thinking ALL ALP people think the same way. There are some very staunch catholic types in Labor who do not approve of gay marriage.
I don’t understand why this is an issue in 2011 – anybody should be able to marry anybody IMHO. But the deeply religious can be remarkably unenlightened.
News Poll usually comes out around midnight so it’s still a bit early to give up.
Have I missed out on the ModLib show? Damn. I wanted an answer to that one.
rummel @ 562:
[…although I find it a bit annoying that he/she rarely responds directly to others’ posts…
charlton
Its not by choice most of the time. Chasing after a three year old prevents me from sitting on here all the time.]
We all have crosses to bear but I appreciate your explanation.
Were it not for that, I would’ve suggested you’re a bit slack.