Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition

The latest Essential Research survey is a relatively good result for the government, with the Coalition’s two-party preferred vote down from 56-44 to 55-45. The primary vote has the Coalition down a point to 48 per cent, Labor up one to 33 per cent and the Greens down one to 11 per cent. While a dismal set of figures for the government in absolute terms, the primary vote is in fact Labor’s best result since June 14, while the two-party preferred is their best since July 25.

Other questions posed offer more evidence of gloom about the economy, with 58 per cent expecting conditions in Australia to worsen over the next 12 months. This is a 9 per cent increase since the question was previously asked at the start of the July, and compares with just 19 per cent who expect things to improve (down 6 per cent on last time). However, the pessimism is not quite as bad as first appears. The increase on the former figure is entirely accounted for by those who opted for “a little worse” (up 10 per cent to 41 per cent), with “a lot worse” actually down a point to 17 per cent. Respondents were also slightly less glum about their personal circumstances, with 24 per cent expecting them to get better and 41 per cent believing they will worsen. The proportion expressing concern about their job security, while high, has increased only two points to 47 per cent. Labor supporters are by far the most optimistic in relation to the economy generally, with 26 per cent believing conditions will get better and 39 per cent expecting them to worsen. Fully 72 per cent of Coalition supporters gave a negative response.

To coincide with the tax forum/summit, the survey also presented a smorgasbord of options on tax reform. By far the most popular were decreasing income tax for low income earners (81 per cent support, 11 per cent oppose) and improving tax breaks for small and medium businesses (76 per cent and 10 per cent). The idea of cutting company tax proved quite a lot less popular, with 32 per cent supportive and 41 per cent opposed. At the bottom end of the spectrum was increasing the GST, favoured by 9 per cent and opposed by 84 per cent, though “increasing the carbon tax” was scarcely more popular (19 per cent to 68 per cent). Respondents were fairly evenly split on abolishing negative gearing on new property purchases (33 per cent to 37 per cent) and repealing the fringe benefits tax (30 per cent to 28 per cent).

The News Limited tabloids also brought us results from a small-sample Galaxy poll (500 respondents) on Friday and Saturday, with a couple of posers for the government: Kevin Rudd led Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader 57-41, while 32 per cent said they would be more likely to support Labor if the carbon price were abandoned against 14 per cent who said less likely. There will presumably be no Newspoll this week due to the long weekend.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,027 comments on “Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. [Clarke_Melissa Melissa Clarke
    .@KRuddMP Rudd says Graham Richardson is probably suffering from relevance deprivation syndrome. ]

    I hope Kev said it in CAPITAL letters.

  2. sorry,
    may harbour plans, but I am sure they aren’t leadership plans. He is probably as sick to death of it as we are.

  3. [Arent we all!]
    I think that is the danger for those getting hot and sweaty over it. It will suffer the “cry wolf” syndrome after awhile. People will go, “Not again, are we to belive it this time?”.

  4. [BH
    Posted Friday, October 7, 2011 at 12:54 pm | Permalink
    Clarke_Melissa Melissa Clarke
    .@KRuddMP Rudd says Graham Richardson is probably suffering from relevance deprivation syndrome.

    I hope Kev said it in CAPITAL letters.]

    BH, KR has dumped on GR big time but I don’t think this will prevent so called journalists, experts or political analysts from going on and predicting JG demise every day.

  5. GG @ 3947
    You are correct on this:

    The decisions have been made, the constructions have almost been completed and now you just have to enjoy the benefits.

    But this is still a problem:

    Many years ago people tried to stop the opening of the Eastern Freeway in Melbourne because the traffic came out in Carlton. I bet they all use the Freeway now.

    Governments (of all persuasions) seem to have had an amazing talent for failing to terminate a freeway in a sensible manner. I remember a wry comment in the press many years ago about one freeway: “You have never been able to get from one traffic jam to another so quickly.”

    So, maintain your whinge, but I’m sure you’ll be thankful of the Labor Government’s foresight next time there is a drought.

    Who is arguing that action wasn’t required? Keep building straw men.

    It is quite possible to be an ALP member and think critically and suggest better alternatives. I was promoting public transport solutions decades ago and warned my local member in 1999 that public transport would be a major issue if not addressed. I get little satisfaction from being right.

  6. Are we saying that if the House passes the AS bill and it goes to the Senate, and the Libs don’t turn up for the vote, that Labor could get it through?

    SK – Shorten made short work of Hockey in that 3AW opening. Thanks for the link.

  7. Bh why are u worried about wilkie today, he says he will vote for price on carbon,
    Just read his site cannot find anything different today,

    About 10 days ago. There was some story about,,, that he clarified his position,MAYbe someONE CAN LINK IT, get the feeling the gambling policy is popular and also the tax summit
    ‘ These two policies.-seem to have different effect not that the tax summit forum bought tax policies as yet but its a good discussion

    Neither of. These policies effect me. Mr public ”so its good

  8. Had nothing been said by either about Richo’s allegations = Nobody is denying anything

    Rudd lashes out at Richo = he is the real leader, makes Gillard superfluous

    Had Gillard lashed out at Richo = Her desperately trying trying to defend her position by lashing out at everybody.

    This is not an attack on Rudd or his supporters, this is just a sign of how pathetic commentators are.

  9. Its. Good mr rudd said that, its about time he started speaking up about this,
    The pm would not come across that good if she did, but rudd its good because this talk is about. Him

  10. The interesting thing about federal politics at the moment is that no one has a clue about what will happen to Gillard, Rudd or Abbott. The journos and ex-pollies talk up Rudd, and talk down Rudd. It means nothing. There is sage perspective friom Tingle and Probyn. No one reads it,or cares. There could be an early election or an election in two years when due. The polls will dominate, but the punters don’t give two hoots. Nothing is certain – either an Abbott Prime Ministership,or Gillard falling over or Rudd taking over and going early, or Turnbull or Hockey challenging late next year. Not even the Canberra pros – on both sides – know. The only certainty is this site will continue to take up too much of my time, especially reading BB and OPT and Victoria.

  11. The interesting thing about Mr Richardson’s article in The Australian today is that he implies that it was Mr Rudd who was behaved treacherously in the last elections.

    I assume Mr Richardson was referring to the leaks that certainly cost Labor majority government in its own right.

  12. [“will” not “could”.]

    Thanks Ducky but I can’t see it happening.

    What have we done to deserve this bunch of young journos who are prancing around interpreting Kev’s words as they want see fit. I don’t care about the commercial media but I want more from my employees at the ABC.

  13. TLBD – noticed in summing up on ABC24 after the replay, Melissa Clark pointed out that Rudds comment re Abbott is part of a technique he’s being using for a while, diverting attention each time he’s asked about leadership to a different problem with an Abbott win, changing it each week (this time mentioning PBS, last week NBN), in order to put an end to the leadership questions.

  14. [Melissa Clarke
    @Clarke_Melissa
    I think Rudd’s comments are as close as we’ll get to a ‘Demetriou’ remark to Richardson: Just shut up!
    35 minutes ago via TweetDeck]

  15. Abbott welcomes manufacturing plan. The internal Lib research must be showing up the Dr No issue – and its starting to hurt.

  16. [THE Opposition Leader, Tony Abbott, will not pledge to unwind restrictions the Labor government may place on poker machines, despite the Coalition being in lock-step with the clubs and hotel industries in their fight against the proposal.]

    “Wilkie, my arse is still yours if you want it!”

  17. [I think Rudd’s comments are as close as we’ll get to a ‘Demetriou’ remark to Richardson: Just shut up!]
    No. Kevin Rudd really just shrugged his shoulders and said it’s a free country but pointed out that Richardson is being paid to do what he is doing.

  18. [why are u worried about wilkie today, he says he will vote for price on carbon,
    Just read his site cannot find anything different today,]

    mysay – I know he will vote for the carbon tax but if he pulls the plug on the Govt. because the pokie legislation does not go through by the end of May 2012 then the carbon price legislation will fail to be implemented.

    Abbott would possibly win an election. The carbon pricing starts on 1st July 2012. Abbott has promised to get rid of the legislation so Wilkie will be the one who will have to answer my question as to what is more important. Mandatory precommitment (as against voluntary precommitment) for pokies or carbon pricing for the planet. Both are important – Wilkie has to decide which one.

    lizzie – I was asking if you think Victoria needs more dams or somesuch in place of the desal and pipeline.

  19. [PETER Costello says the Australian economy remains the envy of the world but Wayne Swan is an unwilling reformer who doesn’t deserve the credit.]

    Shorter Costello: ‘WAAAAHHHHH! Don’t people know who I am?!’

  20. from the Roy Morgan site…

    [Electors were asked: “If a Federal Election for the House of Representatives were held today — which party would receive your first preference?”

    This face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends — September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2011 with an Australia-wide cross-section of Australians aged 14+ including 1,515 electors, of all electors surveyed, 5.5% did not name a party.

    *Telephone Morgan Polls are conducted using the same methodologies used by other major telephone polls — Nielsen, Newspoll, Galaxy. In analysing telephone Morgan Poll results, it is worth noting that telephone polls are good at capturing the response to current events and have typically been biased towards the L-NP, obtain a higher figure for Minor parties and Independents and more ‘responsive’ to current events.]

  21. al palster:

    [ The interesting thing about federal politics at the moment is that no one has a clue about what will happen to Gillard, Rudd or Abbott. The journos and ex-pollies talk up Rudd, and talk down Rudd.]

    Part of the problem is that so many journalists were caught off-guard by the ‘coup’ against Rudd last year. They don’t want to be wrong-footed again. If Gillard gets toppled by Rudd (and it is a big *if*) those same journalists want to be able to say “I told you so.” If nothing happens, then that’s OK too.

    It’s partly the media engaging in a massive beat-up to get headlines, and partly the media covering its own arse. Hooray for the Fourth Estate!

  22. [diverting attention each time he’s asked about leadership to a different problem with an Abbott win]

    What does this mean?

  23. [Clarke_Melissa Melissa Clarke
    .@KRuddMP Rudd says Graham Richardson is probably suffering from relevance deprivation syndrome.
    38 minutes ago

    Darren Laver
    @darrenlaver Darren Laver
    @Clarke_Melissa @KRuddMP also talked about Australia’s foreign aid program, yet ABC is more interested in gossip and rumour. #abcfail
    ]
    [darrenlaver Darren Laver
    @clarke_melissa concedes there is no evidence to support Labor leadership questions, but then goes on to only talk about that. #abcfail
    ]

    I am sick and tired of ABC reporting political gossip and News Ltd inspired dramas, dragging our political debate to the gutter, rather than trying to elevate it to matters of policy and public importance.

    What is the point of the ABC if it is only going to be an echo chamber for the rest of our vacuous press?

  24. [ PETER Costello says the Australian economy remains the envy of the world but Wayne Swan is an unwilling reformer who doesn’t deserve the credit.]

    Cossie better be careful he doesn’t trip over his own lip.

  25. [What does this mean?]
    It means that Kevin Rudd is drawing attention to an Abbott World whenever he has the opportunity.

  26. confessions – when the latest leadership story is brought up at a Rudd presser, he will answer that, then say something about why if Abbott got in it would be a disaster and bring up a policy issue. Standard ministerial practice (or it at least it should be).

  27. BH @ 3988

    lizzie – I was asking if you think Victoria needs more dams or somesuch in place of the desal and pipeline.

    The problem is where would the dams go?

    The Mitchell River has been talked about but the conservationists are opposed.

    During the years of drought in Melbourne, there were actually 2 occasions on which there was flooding in Gippsland including the Mitchell River.

    In any event, you just can’t go on building more dams for ever.

    There is a need to introduce recycling of water.

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