Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition

For all the convulsions it has faced on the political front, in one respect the Gillard government has presented a model of stability in recent months: its opinion poll ratings, as measured by the weekly Essential Research report, have been set in stone since the middle of June. This week’s result shows no change at all on the previous week, with Labor on 32 per cent and the Coalition on 49 per cent of the primary vote, and the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred. The only change is a two-point gain for the Greens, who are up to 12 per cent at the expense of other parties and independents. Respondents were also asked to rate the performance of Tony Abbott as Opposition Leader, with slightly better results than he is used to from his personal approval ratings: 38 per cent agreed he was “performing the role of opposition leader well and is keeping the government accountable”, with 45 per cent taking the commonly heard view that he is “just opposing everything and is obstructing the work of the government”.

Other questions fielded by Essential Research probe the complex area of public opinion on asylum seekers, and as usual they offer little to help guide political leaders through the minefield. Whereas other surveys have indicated surprisingly high support for onshore processing, the latest survey illustrates how dependent such results are upon the options given to respondents. Only 21 per cent were found to indicate a preference for onshore processing when the available alternatives were offshore processing “in any other country” (11 per cent), offshore processing “only in a country where human rights are protected” (31 per cent) and turning the boats around (28 per cent).

Respondents were further asked to rate features of a good refugee processing system, and here too the public seems determined to make life difficult for the government: the two features rated most important were “keeping costs down” (rated very important or somewhat important by 81 per cent) and the possibly incompatible objective of “protecting human rights” (80 per cent). It might be thought a surprise that the objective of “stopping the boats” only came in third, at 74 per cent. The least pressing concern was ensuring that asylum seekers were not returned to the country from which they had fled (49 per cent).

A question on trust in various Australian institutions emphasises how much work our churches have to do to recover confidence: only 29 per cent declared a lot of trust or some trust in religious organisations, against 72 per cent for the High Court, 67 per cent for the Reserve Bank and 61 per cent for charitable organisations. Interestingly, federal parliament (55 per cent) rated higher than the ABC (46 per cent), environmental groups (45 per cent) and trade unions (39 per cent). Last but certainly not least, the AFL grand final attracted the most interest out of three looming sports events: 32 per cent declared themselves interested, against 20 per cent for the NRL grand final and 10 per cent for the Rugby World Cup.

The weekend brought another polling tidbit from Adelaide’s Advertiser, which has conducted an in-house poll of 642 respondents from the state electorate of Port Adelaide. The poll is a product of the almost universal anticipation that the seat’s current Labor member, Kevin Foley, will head for the parliamentary exit not long after he stands down from the ministry in October 20, in tandem with Premier Mike Rann. Whereas there is little expectation Labor will be troubled in the resulting by-election for Rann’s seat of Ramsay, Port Adelaide-Enfield mayor Gary Johanson is thought to be a serious prospect as an independent candidate in Port Adelaide. The poll nonetheless shows Johanson attracting only 14 per cent support at this stage, with 37 per cent backing Labor, 31 per cent Liberal and 11 per cent for the Greens. Labor has a two-party lead of 55-45, pointing to a swing to the Liberals of about 8 per cent. The poll’s margin of error is around 4 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

646 comments on “Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. [Space Kidette
    Posted Monday, September 26, 2011 at 10:47 pm | Permalink

    david,

    Best time of my life. Dancing my weekend nights away and studying all day! 😀 ]

    Luv ya..meet my beloved wife at a rugby club dance and cabaret she also cut a similar fine figure..as a 20 yr old fell into her spell, she still has me gazooked 3 kids later 🙂

  2. Kiddo

    In 1983 I decided farq it all, and went from super hippy/headbanger (but with a punk attitude) to having a number 3 cut. The first haircut I’d had since leaving school in 77.

    I went into my local on the Friday night after having it cut, and no-one recognised me. I’d only been drinking there for 4 years. It was only when I ordered a drink the barman recognised the voice.

    Remained clean cut since then up to last year, when I discovered that my hair still actually grows (a nice feeling when you’re in your late 40’s :wink:), so it’s grown to about collar length again.

    Once a hippy/headbanger (with a punk attitude), always a hippy/headbanger (with a punk attitude). 😀

  3. [gusface
    Posted Monday, September 26, 2011 at 10:51 pm | Permalink
    mod

    hey

    sometimes u go all jekyll and hydey

    just saying]

    Fair enough Gus….its just the “vibe” eh?

  4. rishane @ 445

    I like how you blame Rudd’s colleagues for Rudd’s behaviour behind the scenes. (I’m assuming that if people did try to get him in line they’d just have gotten more rages against them) I guess it also raises the question of why he was like this in Queensland parliament as well as when Opposition Leader and then Prime Minister. Were the people in Queensland also weak-willed?

    You are slightly altering my meaning.

    I don’t blame Rudd’s colleagues for his ALLEGED behaviour behind the scenes, but if those allegations are true, then they should have told him in no uncertain terms that it was unacceptable and had better stop.

    Do tell me more about Rudd’s career in the Qld parliament. I was completely unaware of it. Alternatively, stop making stuff up. 👿

  5. [gusface
    Posted Monday, September 26, 2011 at 10:51 pm | Permalink

    mod

    hey

    sometimes u go all jekyll and hyde

    just saying

    🙂 ]

    Gus just sayin, can read the unmodlib like the proverbial…

  6. [I wish there were less horses and more cows]

    I don’t.

    I find horses more genuine than cows, at least those whom comment on this site.

  7. [Gus just sayin, can read the unmodlib like the proverbial…]

    Well I have to concede, you have both mounted such a watertight case there is no point me trying to mount a defence.

    Well done.

  8. zoid

    hmmm

    i work with quite a few older females and males

    there is a shifting sands type opinion

    I wonder do we have the breakdown od dis/app by age from the latest polls??

    maybe bilbo the rib stabber, has the answer

  9. One of the people I regularly went to see bands with was Jon Casimir of Gruen fame. He was a communications student with my best friend at the time and he was writing for NME (if I remember correctly or maybe one of the other ones) and went to a few gigs so he could work. Madness was one of them.

  10. [Do tell me more about Rudd’s career in the Qld parliament. I was completely unaware of it.]

    OPT has posted extensively on this in the past. But perhaps you’ve never been around when her comments have appeared. The next time she’s here you should ask her about it.

  11. [gusface
    Posted Monday, September 26, 2011 at 10:58 pm | Permalink
    mod

    woah there, paleface

    i said sometimes]

    Don’t worry Gus, I’m very much laughing not crying!

    Good night one and all 😉

  12. [Do tell me more about Rudd’s career in the Qld parliament. I was completely unaware of it. Alternatively, stop making stuff up. 👿 ]

    bemused anything you need to know about Mr Rudd just phone Piers Akerman at the Daily Telegraph, he has a file I am told a metre high…wouldn’t ensure it is all factual, but hey will make entertaining reading..has kept Akers going since Rudders was working for the Queensland Govt 20 years ago..you want stalking and obsession,rumours, dirt, phone Akers, he’s your man..he hates Rudd with a deep passion.

  13. Remember that interview the Prime Minister did with Alan Jones on Radio Liberal when he admonished her for being ten minutes late? That shows the disrespect and belittlement with which a conservative views a female leader. Now, most Australians are not as negative or politically-extreme as Jones (thank goodness), but if he’s any indication, Australia, with a large and stubborn core of social conservatism, has a long way to progress…

  14. I was gonna duck down the shops and grab a carton of milk but I heard something on Q&A about Carbon Tax riots.

    Stay indoors Bludgers.

    It’s crazy out there.

  15. SK,

    Yes, it is disappointing. Still, having the work cut out for us gives us a row to hoe and a cause on which to focus our efforts. Progress!

  16. confessions @ 516

    Do tell me more about Rudd’s career in the Qld parliament. I was completely unaware of it.

    OPT has posted extensively on this in the past. But perhaps you’ve never been around when her comments have appeared. The next time she’s here you should ask her about it.

    Well I am not a Queenslander so I may have a gap in my knowledge, but I understood Rudd was on the staff of Wayne Goss.

    As far as I am aware Rudd was never a member of the Qld Parliament. But hey, he gets blamed for so many other things, what’s one more?

  17. [I find horses more genuine than cows, at least those whom comment on this site.]

    Pegasus is a Green hack, who only ever supports the party line. Vera OTOH is free to say what she thinks.

    Make of that what you will wrt genuineness.

  18. [the convoy of zombie incontinents?]

    Yeah but this time they’ve got Hellish Hel Coonan up front.

    Don’t risk it Gus.

    Don’t go out there.

  19. [The Finnigans
    Posted Monday, September 26, 2011 at 11:01 pm | Permalink

    Ok, Let The Graveyard Shift Begins!!!! ]

    Whoa Finn, is a only 9pm here in the West, I haven’t been fed yet, daughter and wife are looking through books of bridal wear, the size of, would make the records of the Franciscan Monks activities since their inception a mere daily record…I have a niggle about price, am I game to raise that minor item? Nooooooooooooooooooo So another beer of the World Cup Heineken, thankyou Julia and Wayne for the great managing of the economy we are getting by 😉

  20. bemused:

    I’m sure if you ask OPT about Rudd’s tenure in the Qld PS she will give you the full history.

    Apparently Rudd was almost universally hated when he was Goss’ CoS.

  21. victoria, I wonder if he would get the coverage he did if he hadn’t resorted to saying “shut up!” 🙂

    We should get Gillard to take insult lessons from Keating 🙂

  22. [swearyanthonyAnthony Baxter

    by zackster

    Clubs Australia: mandatory precommitment or publish audited books on how much you actually give back to the community. Choose.

    21 minutes agoFavoriteRetweetReply]

  23. Carbon tax riots. FFS! Their ABC should be ashamed for giving a platform to extremists. Surely that’s not part of the charter of a public broadcaster.

  24. cud chewer

    Good question. Although, Demetriou did not hold back expressing his disdain for the NRL and Clubs Australia. It was pure Gold!

  25. [shows

    so remind me agin

    didnt you say fuku was just a minor accident?
    it was all overblown?

    just saying]
    No, the term I used was “tragedy”.

  26. [confessions

    Posted Monday, September 26, 2011 at 11:12 pm | Permalink

    bemused:

    I’m sure if you ask OPT about Rudd’s tenure in the Qld PS she will give you the full history.

    Apparently Rudd was almost universally hated when he was Goss’ CoS.
    ]

    And as documented over at LP up until he was elected PM cos he was a “Mini Howard”, yeet as soon as he was dumped they did a 360 and declared that Rudd wuz robbed etc.

  27. [You are slightly altering my meaning.

    I don’t blame Rudd’s colleagues for his ALLEGED behaviour behind the scenes, but if those allegations are true, then they should have told him in no uncertain terms that it was unacceptable and had better stop.

    Do tell me more about Rudd’s career in the Qld parliament. I was completely unaware of it. Alternatively, stop making stuff up. 👿 ]

    Look, I’m not an expert in the machinations of Qld politics, but in addition to what the odd poster has said on here, there are references in texts like Power Trip to Rudd being unusually controlling and alienating his colleagues even in QLD. I’d quote you some examples but I need to find my copy. But hell, even an excerpt from the article we discussed is pertinent:

    [He had been described by journalist Roy Eccleston in The Australian (March 1992) as the “state’s most influential man”, after the premier. Eccleston continued: “Nothing of substance in government policy is likely to happen without his [Rudd’s] knowledge, consideration and advice. [Rudd] quickly developed an almost mythological reputation for power and influence. Rudd’s influence on the government? Total. Our impression was all policies were coming out under his imprimatur . . . His objective is to ensure reforms create an enduring transformation in Queensland.”

    I learned nothing got through the Queensland cabinet unless Rudd approved it, and he had on occasion reduced cabinet ministers to tears. Apparently no one had told him his job was to advise ministers, not vice-versa. Rudd was a Jekyll and Hyde personality who changed when required. He could flash the cheesy, Luna Park grin, be “hail fellow well met” when necessary and be particularly charming to important media heavies. Once he had achieved his objective he reverted to Hyde. ]

    I should clarify my argument earlier though. My point is that whether you think its right or wrong to have had Rudd removed, to have treated Labor MPs so badly is just foolish in a system where your leadership depends on said MPs vote.

  28. [We should get Gillard to take insult lessons from Keating]

    “Well, I think Mr Abbott’s entitled to his views as long as he keeps them well hidden in his ridiculous budgie smugglers with the rest of his shortcomings. Next question. I’m sorry, are you from The Australian? Yes? Then shut up. Next question.”

  29. confessions @ 539

    So was he or wasn’t he in the Qld Parliament?

    The man seems to have superhuman powers to have been in so many places.

    It is strange that both of the ALP members in my general area, who I know reasonably well, seem to regard him highly

    There is a strange dissonance between the Rudd I have met 4 times and who local members seem to get on OK with and the Rudd described by some here.

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