Nielsen struck a blow for transparency yesterday by releasing comprehensive data for their polling on asylum seekers, featuring detail on the questions and how they were asked, breakdowns by state, location, gender, age and voting intention, and no fewer than eight tables cross-tabulating various results for the eight questions asked. They even went so far as to include the raw numbers they reached after weighting the responses for age, gender and location, not that this particularly tells us much.
The poll also deserves credit for posing thoughtfully crafted questions on a complex and contentious subject. No doubt taking inspiration from Murray Goot and Ian Watson’s recent paper on public opinion and asylum seekers, which noted that results had been heavily influenced by “the way questions are framed, the kinds of questions that precede these questions (and) the range of possible responses the questions allow”, the Nielsen report offered the following:
It is important to note that the results of opinion polls on this issue are more sensitive to the wording of the questions asked than for many other topics. This is because the issues are often emotional for some and complicated for all. Respondent knowledge on this subject is never complete. The task of adequately condensing complex options into fair but meaningful questions is also a difficult one.
The questions in this poll were stripped of their political context as much as possible. For example the ‘sent to another country to be assessed’ option was not offered in the context of deterrence, nor was any human or financial cost alluded to. It was not offered as Labor or Coalition policy (e.g. by calling it the ‘Malaysian solution’ or the ‘Pacific solution’).
The Fairfax papers asserted that the poll showed voters “at odds with both Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott and the perception that attitudes have hardened against asylum seekers”, and certainly the figures point to a more liberal attitude than the tenor of political debate would suggest. However, The Age gilded the lily a little with a graphic showing 60 per cent believed those assessed as genuine refugees should be allowed to stay in Australia permanently. It takes a bit of digging to appreciate that this excludes the 15 per cent who didn’t believe the asylum seekers should be assessed at all, having preferred that they be “sent out to sea”. The number supporting settlement in Australia was nonetheless a very solid 49 per cent, although there remained a combined 44 per cent in favour of the less liberal options of temporary protection visas (29 per cent support) and sending boats back out to sea (15 per cent). The same issue occurs with The Age’s figures for whether boat arrivals should be held in detention (64 per cent) or allowed into the community (32 per cent): putting the aforementioned 15 per cent back in (together with the 4 per cent “other/don’t know“), the results come down to 52 per cent and 26 per cent.
Regarding the treatment of asylum seekers on arrival, the results can be broken down thus:
22% – Allowed to live in the Australian community
12% – Detained in Australia, excluding children
17% – Detained in Australia, including children
4% – Sent to another country, allowed to live in community there
23% – Sent to another country and detained there
4% – Assessed for refugee status, no opinion on detention
15% – No assessment for refugee status: sent back out to sea
4% – Other/don’t know
And on their treatment after being assessed for refugee status:
49% – Settled in Australia
29% – Granted temporary protection visas
2% – Returned to country of origin
15% – No assessment for refugee status: sent back out to sea
5% – Other/don’t know
To those who are ready to junk the orthodox view on this subject, I would offer a few notes of caution. Certainly there was no majority in favour of assessing refugee status in Australia at the time of the Tampa episode, when Nielsen and Morgan polls had between 68 per cent and 77 per cent in favour of turning boats away. It is hardly plausible that so many of these respondents have had changes of heart that only 15 per cent now remain. What it likely shows is how the finer point of public opinion on this issue are shaped by the terms of the debate at the time. The symbolism in August/September 2001 involved boats being either allowed to land or held at bay by the military – only as the Howard government scrambled to effect its “Pacific solution” was the public alerted to the fact that the latter course only constituted half a policy. This may have led to a change in questions posed and answers given in opinion polls, but it doesn’t follow that there was a shift in underlying attitudes.
This leads to a point that occurs to me about the wording of Nielsen’s “sent to another country to be assessed” option: for many respondents, Nauru might not register as “another country” in the sense that Malaysia does, as it is perceived either as a dependency of Australia or too insigificant to qualify as a “country”. This option may accordingly have been interpreted by some as an invitation to sign on for the Malaysia solution. If Nielsen had at least added enough political context to allow for the restoration of the Pacific solution as a response option, the poll may have told a somewhat different story.
UPDATE (22/8): Crikey reports the latest Essential Research has Labor up a point on two-party preferred (to 56-44 from 57-43) and also on the primary vote, to 32 per cent, with the Coalition and the Greens steady on 50 per cent and 10 per cent. In other findings, 24 per cent support the health package finalised by government last month against 9 per cent opposed, with the great majority either indifferent (31 per cent said it would have little or no impact) or ignorant (28 per cent said they had heard nothing, 36 per cent little). Forty-seven per cent supported David Cameron’s suggestion that access to Twitter and Facebook be blocked during periods of civil unrest, with support varying as you would expect according to age and social media usage.
UPDATE 2: Full Essential Research report here.
gusface,
All bolo Don Juan may have been (You have evidence?). Good read.
As you know, people say things when under the influence. They have a hard time distinguishing reality from t’other. I’m not prepared to dismiss Carlos.
Yes Dee, but if there is a possitive it is that Abbott has made more backflips than any monkey at Taronga Park.
[Gary Sparrow
Posted Monday, August 22, 2011 at 4:30 pm | Permalink
Did Radar or Keenan ask a question?]
What? Is Crackers there now?
Blossom,
In years in alcohol, it should be safe. Check with your GP next visit.
Just on the Hockey/Pyne treatment of the PM reported this morning, where are the women journos and women MPs who know how hard it is to get ahead in a Boys Club profession calling out these Liberal goons?
@Centre/6402,
He made a couple of Goofs today, including being with Truckies with No Confidence, and then to top that off, Alan Jones.
And then in Question Time, Gillard basically told Coalition Party to stop asking stupid questions.
[I think Michael Charlton did the 58-59 v England. I don’t think he did 60-61 v WI; mainly Johnnie Moyes (great too). Adelaide with Mackay and Kline is epochal.]
tlbd,
Charlton did commentate the 60-61 series against the WI – see page 22-23 in the following document:
http://www.mcc.org.au/News/Publications/~/media/Files/Unforgettable_Summer.ashx
The 4 Corners montage makes us realise how much we are currently being short changed.
Thumper
Sending emails to Pyne and hockey is a good idea. Think I will do the same
[Yes Dee, but if there is a possitive it is that Abbott has made more backflips than any monkey at Taronga Park.]
Well it is part of his electorate…
[For those who want to read the submissions of Mr Shah, the Commonwealth and Australian Human Rights Commission in Shah v Minister of Immigration heard today and continuing tomorrow, follow this link:
http://www.hcourt.gov.au/cases/case-m70/2011%5D
Thanks.
Any indication on when a decision might be due?
Scarpat,
Thank you. I have two books about those series. Wonderful reading! Also was at the ‘gabba when Garfield scored his ton. Remember one special off-cut. Missed the last day. Bugger! Was on the radio.
Confessions, it’s so last century to call men on sexist, misgynistic, bullying behaviour. After all, haven’t we acheived everything we wanted? Equal pay. Freedom from violence. Positions on major boards.
Everything!
And the way Alan Jones has behaved today was disgraceful. Sky reported that Jacqueline Maley (they didn’t name her, but said a female journo at Fairfax) felt intimidated and had to leave the convoy mob because she found the whole frenzy frightening.
We have Liberal MPs taunting and trying to intimidate the PM. We have Liberal staffers stalking young women who turn up at Liberal-organised community events and offer an alternative view. We have talkback personalities trying to incite anger towards journos. WTF is happening to this country?!
[Also was at the ‘gabba when Garfield scored his ton.]
tlbd,
Lucky you. He was one great player.
Ducky
you are the heretic
😉
I can’t believe the fuss that is being made over this carbon scheme.
Could you imagine if it was a tax on practically all goods and services by a revenue raising 10%… with most of the revenue raised going to low to middle income earners?
Oh that’s right, that tax was OK as most of the raised revenue there went to high income earners!
Sheezus what a funny world we live in?
Makes me want to grab Angry Anderson and Gloria Jones and bash there heads together like Mo did with Curly and Larry in the 3 stooges 😆
Also was at the ‘gabba when Garfield scored his ton.
geez for a fatcat, he has done things I never knew about
You might have heard this but if you don’t take things too seriously it’s quite funny…
An old bloke was telling me that Julia is a post turtle.
What’s that I said?
Well he said, sometimes driving down a road in the bush you’ll find a turtle balanced on top of a post, that’s a post turtle.
Intrigued I said, what do you mean that Julia is a post turtle?
Well he said, you know she didn’t get up there by herself, she doesn’t belong up there, she doesn’t know what to do while she’s up there,she sure as hell isn’t going anywhere, and you just wonder what kind of dumb bastard put her up there.
Nearly cacked myself!!
adelaidegirl:
I am very, very angry about what Abbott is doing to this nation. His dog whistling is much worse than Howard’s was. My god, Howard looks like a statesman compared to Abbott!
But Confessions, don’t cha know that none of this would be happening if only we had a Liberal Govmint.
adelaidegirl
If Gillard was smart she’d legislate for equal pay.
Why the ALP of all parties hasnt done anything for equal pay for women is a complete joke IMHO.
[Makes me want to grab Angry Anderson and Gloria Jones and bash there heads together like Mo did with Curly and Larry in the 3 stooges]
Unfortunately it would be about as effective but extremely enjoyable.
[Confessions, it’s so last century to call men on sexist, misgynistic, bullying behaviour. ]
Whether or not the behavior of Sloppy and Poodle is any of the above (and i’m not disagreeing with you) i think that the PM has a right to a harassment free workplace the same as any other person of any gender. OK, QT in the house people get a bit rude and nasty, but that’s not the same. Outside the house they should BL%%DY well lay off and be professional.
ad girl
the scorpion eats the worm
🙂
Darren
High Court hearing resumes tomorrow.
I am guessing a decision on the adult (Shah) this week.
The minor (M70) may be later.
I agree Connie @ 6420 that’s why Abbott is unacceptable and must go!
[We have Liberal MPs taunting and trying to intimidate the PM. We have Liberal staffers stalking young women who turn up at Liberal-organised community events and offer an alternative view. We have talkback personalities trying to incite anger towards journos. WTF is happening to this country?!]
Don’t forget the calls to violence published on websites and broadcast on the airwaves. Nooses being dangled at visiting climate scientists. Death threats left on the mobiles of Independents.
Welcome to incipient Fascism. 🙁
Agreed, confessions. These last four years have been appalling, when they should have been great, with a Labor government to right the wrongs of Howard. You’re right, though. Howard looks good compared to Starey Tone. I wonder if there’ll be any comments from Hockey and Pyne regarding their behaviour. Or have there been already?
ducky
do you know who tuesday lobsang rampa was?
You vote for her, and it just might happen, Mr Sparrow.
While you bat for the other side, convince them to do it.
imacca, too right. It wouldn’t be tolerated in my workplace. I’ve seen it.
[Confessions, it’s so last century to call men on sexist, misgynistic, bullying behaviour. After all, haven’t we acheived everything we wanted? Equal pay. Freedom from violence. Positions on major boards.
Everything!]
Bullying & harrassment in the workplace cuts both ways.
Gus and Ducky
Casteneda is sometimes included in lists of literary hoaxers. I don’t know the rights and wrongs of it.
daretotead @6058
Yes, easy to do that. A lot of Germans thought the same about a bloke with a funny mustache and a gang of ruffians in brown shirts.
[Darren
High Court hearing resumes tomorrow.
I am guessing a decision on the adult (Shah) this week.
The minor (M70) may be later.]
Thanks. Watch this space I guess.
dio
put it this way
he should be on more lists
:9
True, Dee, but I think we were talking about a specific incident perpetrated by two men against a woman. As many have said, would they have behaved that way towards a male PM?
bemused
Charlie Chaplin?
Is not fair Work Australia due to bring down a finding on equal pay in the community care sector this month or early next month ?
My understanding is the government has stated it will support whatever the finding is and has budgeted for its share of any increase.
Some of the states have not been as forthcoming.
Some fool commenting on the ABC convoy article is blaming hendra on the government. I had no idea flying foxes were members of the ALP..
But this is the problem, people are blaming the government for everything, one person I was working with blamed the ‘government’ because he had to give a weeks notice. He had signed a contract stating that…
How do you stop this sort of irrationality.?
Diogenes @ 6097
You didn’t? Well a visit to the optometrist might be a good idea and down scalpels until that problem is sorted.
It is clearly visible on the bottom right of the big banner, and the publication “The New Citizen” is theirs and you can see the start of their name on it “Citizens Elect…”
There are other clues for anyone with a passing familiarity e.g. their reference to “Glass-Steagall” which is one of their hobby horses.
[True, Dee, but I think we were talking about a specific incident perpetrated by two men against a woman. As many have said, would they have behaved that way towards a male PM?]
Of course not!
My comment was in reference to your broad statement that women have equality in most sectors.
My point was that bullying or harrassment is unacceptable regardless of gender.
[I had no idea flying foxes were members of the ALP..]
I believe there is a red fox leading the Government.
[Some fool commenting on the ABC convoy article is blaming hendra on the government. I had no idea flying foxes were members of the ALP..]
well if the fibs can recruit rats…….
Centre:
I largely view Howard’s PMship as a stain on this nation’s history, but I think the blatant sexism and misogyny and bullying wouldn’t be tolerated under his leadership.
Yes, I know about Heffernan and the ‘barren’ attacks on Gillard. But what’s happening now, aided and abetted by the women Murdochracy journos like Savva, goes beyond that.
[The 4 Corners montage makes us realise how much we are currently being short changed.]
Too true BK
[Daren if Labor were ahead 55-45 I’m sure you’d say they do matter…]
Explain how a poll matters 2 years out from an election Glen.
[An old bloke was telling me that Julia is a post turtle.
What’s that I said?
Well he said, sometimes driving down a road in the bush you’ll find a turtle balanced on top of a post, that’s a post turtle.
Intrigued I said, what do you mean that Julia is a post turtle?
Well he said, you know she didn’t get up there by herself, she doesn’t belong up there, she doesn’t know what to do while she’s up there,she sure as hell isn’t going anywhere, and you just wonder what kind of dumb bastard put her up there.]
….and we happen to know the dumb bastards who put her up there.
Well if polls don’t matter now why are people on ‘Poll’bludger