Nielsen: 61-39 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement poll from Nielsen, presumably conducted between Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400, has the Coalition’s lead out from 59-41 to 61-39. Further comment superfluous, but primary votes and leadership figures, and presumably also some attitudinal stuff, to follow.

UPDATE: After falling a point short of overtaking Julia Gillard in last month’s poll, Tony Abbott has rocketed to an 11-point lead as preferred prime minister, up five points to 51 per cent with Gillard down six to 40 per cent.

UPDATE 2: Labor primary vote down a point to 26 per cent …

UPDATE 3: Michelle Grattan in the Sydney Morning Herald:

In results that will send waves of fear through the government, approval for Ms Gillard’s performance has tumbled another 3 points to 34 per cent, while her disapproval rating has jumped 3 to 62 per cent. The carbon plan has been given an unequivocal thumbs down, with 56 per cent of respondents opposed to a carbon price, 52 per cent rejecting the government’s carbon price and compensation package, and 53 per cent believing it will leave them worse off. More than half (56 per cent) say Ms Gillard has no mandate for her plan, and the same proportion want an early poll before the plan is introduced. Nearly half (47 per cent) think Bob Brown and the Greens are mainly responsible for the government’s package. More than half (52 per cent) say an Abbott government should repeal the package while 43 per cent believe it should be left in place under a new government. Ms Gillard yesterday denied she had been ringing around to gauge backbench support for her failing leadership.

The Coalition’s primary vote is up 2 points to 51 per cent, while the Greens’ is down 1 point to 11 per cent. Approval of Mr Abbott has risen a point to 47 per cent. His disapproval is down 2 points to 48 per cent … Ms Gillard’s approval rating is her worst so far and the lowest for a PM since Paul Keating’s 34 per cent in March 1995.

UPDATE (18/7/2011): Essential Research is kinder for the government, showing a slight improvement from last week’s worst-ever result for them: the Coalition’s lead is down from 57-43 to 56-44, with the Coalition down a point to 49 per cent, Labor up one to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Essential being a two-week rolling average, this was half conducted immediately before and half immediately after the carbon tax announcement, with the latter evidently having provided the better figures. I have noted in the past that, for whatever reason, Essential seems to get more favourable results for the carbon tax than phone pollsters: as well as being consistent with the voting intention findings (albeit not to the extent of statistical significance), the Essential survey also finds direct support for the carbon tax has increased since the announcement, with approval up four points to 39 per cent and disapproval down four to 49 per cent.

This raises at least the possibility that the phone polling methodology behind the recent Morgan and Nielsen results, as well as next week’s Newspoll, is skewed somewhat against the carbon tax – unless of course the internet-based Essential (or perhaps some other aspect of Essential’s methodology) is skewed in its favour. It should also be noted that Essential’s recovery only returns support to the level it was at in the June 14 survey, before a dive on July 11. For all that, respondents are just as pessimistic about their own prospects under the tax as were Morgan’s: 10 per cent say they will be better off against 69 per cent worse off, and 46 per cent believe it will be bad for Australia against 34 per cent good. Further questions inquire about respondent’s self-perceived level of knowledge about the tax, and their reactions about a range of responses to it.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

8,826 comments on “Nielsen: 61-39 to Coalition”

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  1. [26 primary. Ouch, just ouch.]

    Even Nelson kept the Libs PV above 30 odd 🙂

    Knives out and sharpening…I feel like it wont be long before Combet and co come knocking on Gillard’s door at night knives in hand.

  2. evan14, I still think Julia is Labor’s best weapon and the one who can turn it all around. Labor had a good week. She just needs to keep on getting out there.

  3. i’m yet to be convinced of the likelihood of rupert’s empire falling to some true king wielding a magic sword. even if he did go down and all his australian papers went with him, has anyone read a fairfax paper recently? it’s murder in there for labor.

    there is not going to be a magical game changer. labor need to knuckle down, take abbott seriously and begin to systematically destroy him. ‘tony always says no’ is a pathetic attempt to find a message. he says no because labor are a terrible government. who cares if it’s true or not? 2 out of 3 voters believe it.

  4. It is interesting that Murdoch’s takeover target, BSkyB, has been giving great prominence to this story…..maybe the editors at Sky don’t want Murdoch any more than the rest of us do…..

  5. The carbon tax is not the main problem, their is the pokies reform and in the main the economy which has collapsed.
    The government has a stupid pledge to get the budget back in surplus they better hope that the chinese economy has not collapse because it would become a depression and on top of this you have the budget in surplus pledge. Stupid stuff.
    They are in serious trouble but now is not the time to change leaders, next year yes but not now is not the time it simply would be crazy panic politics.
    They need to get other policies out their to take the heat away from this issue. They will not win debate at present they need to do other things.

  6. 39/61

    Sizeable negative polls for a year, with a persistent trend downwards.

    The PMs personal figures and PPM figures diving likewise (against awful LOTO)

    Support for Gillard has on the evidence totally collapsed. Gillard is most definately damaged goods in the eyes of the public.

    The could well be a relationship between the sudden increased dive in Labor support and Gillard’s ratings – meaning most likely it is now Gillard turning people off Labor.

    Dog whistling, Timor/PNG/Malaysia Pacific Solution policy development and or implementation amateurish. Live Cattle export issue handled like a rank amateur.

    Bad polls don’t neccessarily indicate a bad PM, consistently awful polls should give people at least some cause to at least look at the PM‘s performance, which has been less than acceptable. She is no leader, lacks the skills to lead a country, pure and simple.

    Whilst Labor lives in denial the polls continue to crash as the public are telling us all, Gillard Labor stinks, and now the PM is on the nose. Nothing more obvious than this.

    But it is ok, lets wait, it will get better, 2 years is a long way. We don’t have to worry about a permanent destruction of primary voter support. Gulp.

    Heck, the excuse for dumping Rudd was a temporary dip common to all previous PMs, and left with a very respectable 52/48.

    I am sure now there will be stong behind the scenes machinations about replacements.

    The funny thing is that they might do nothing because the polls will bounce a little bit. They have to, they cant get any worse, so the only way up is a little bounce. Those in denial will take that as the beginning of the great recovery.

  7. [Seriously Combet could sell the Tax…Gillard…well she’ll just go crying off to the NPC. ]

    Classy Glen, classy. From actually watching most of her appearances, she’s done a good job of advocating the tax. Its not her fault it gets spun like hell in the way most Australians wind up perceiving things, and the NPC speech is a perfect example. Spend thirty minutes patiently explaining why its good reform and necessary, waver a tiny bit vocally while talking about her past for a moment, and then have that magically transformed into ‘Gillard cried!’ Its ridiculous.

  8. [52

    Glen

    Posted Sunday, July 17, 2011 at 11:06 pm | Permalink

    26 primary. Ouch, just ouch.

    Even Nelson kept the Libs PV above 30 odd

    Knives out and sharpening…I feel like it wont be long before Combet and co come knocking on Gillard’s door at night knives in hand.
    ]
    Keep Dreaming son.

    The Welsh are of stoic stuff. She will outflank Budgie Boy 🙂

  9. Glen:

    [Seriously Combet could sell the Tax…]

    I agree. Combet should be charged with the job of selling the ETS. It’s a loser for Gillard and the more people hear her speaking about it the more they become convinced she “lied”.

    I’m sure Labor’s focus groups are telling them that a not insignificant number of people think Gillard is a “ruthless back stabber”. If that is the case then she needs to use it. She needs to turn those “ruthless back stabbing” skills onto Tony Abbott. Except, instead of stabbing him in the back she needs to cut his balls off (figuratively speaking, of course).

  10. [labor need to knuckle down]
    Instead of being lazy do nothings who had 161 bills fall into their Hor lap?

  11. Julia had a good week?
    If you call being abused in a Brisbane shopping centre “a good week”?
    The TV imagery wasn’t great for her, and while I thought she did well at the press club, the media only concentrated on the teary “Shy Julia” thing.
    Surely the time to introduce herself to the Australian public was in the first few months after she became PM, not 12 months later?
    I still argue she’s got to shake up her office and team of advisers.

  12. And any possible change would have to include the Indies in any possible change. I say just stay the course and implement good policy along the way.

  13. The problem for Julia is the broken promise. This will stay with the public until the next election. She is not liked so before the next election they have no choice to replace leaders.

  14. Glen: It’s amazing that the ALP can be on a 2PP vote of 39%, yet 99% of ALP voters here think it’s a GOOD result?
    She denied it today, but Laurie Oakes revealed that last week, Julia was ringing round the caucus, ensuring her level of support was staying strong.
    I wonder who she’s fearful of challenging her? 😉

  15. [I agree. Combet should be charged with the job of selling the ETS. It’s a loser for Gillard and the more people hear her speaking about it the more they become convinced she “lied”.

    I’m sure Labor’s focus groups are telling them that a not insignificant number of people think Gillard is a “ruthless back stabber”. ]

    That stupid myth really is having an afterlife, partly attributable to so many people not being aware that what happened to Rudd is perfectly possible under the Australian system of government. I guess one way of viewing recent polls/events is that its a battle of facts vs myths (Gillard’s a backstabber, she LIED, the carbon price will doom us all and do nothing), and unfortunately so far the myths are more popular. It’d be nice to take them down somehow.

  16. [she’s done a good job of advocating the tax.]

    ummm crying 3 days after announcing the Tax.
    Getting called a liar in a shopping mall.
    Refusing to let cameras into Hazelwood.

    She’s not doing a good job because she has lost all credibility in the eyes of the Australian public.

    The sooner the ALP knife her the sooner they can get on with the job of governing. Gillard has no authority or gravitas left in the bank and the longer she stays there the lower her PPM rating will drop I mean ffs Abbott is above 50?

    Frank when even the likes of you are getting worried you know Labor are down the tubes. Buck up old son 🙂

    I cant see Labor coming back from here. Despite 2 years out.

    I stand by my comment…the Carbon Tax is more unpopular than Workchoices and by these Polls I am correct 🙂

  17. The only Labor Senior Minister who gets mobbed in marginal electorates is Kevin Rudd – like him or detest him(and plenty here dislike him), he’s still Labor’s best electoral weapon.

    Labor is hated here by some on PB for the very reason Gillard is doing so poorly. He his hated by the Gillard cabal for exact the same reason – he was very popular before and remains popular. This they cannot stomach.

    The more trouble Gillard gets into the more Rudd gets whipped. Whipping boy, who was also knifed.

    Rudd should stay well away from the PM job. It is poisoned challice. The Gillard cabal would make sure he failed regardless of the harm to Labor. The only scenario I could see Rudd being PM is if he was asked months out from an election, to save some furniture.

  18. [Well, in fairness, the Libs do not have a third party which takes about 10-15% of their PV then filter most of it back to them.]

    the greens don’t ‘take’ anything. labor abandons core voters to chase conservative loons who will never vote for them. i’ve been assured in the past by other commenters that this is the sort of clear eyed pragmatism needed to win elections.

  19. It’s amazing that the ALP can be on a 2PP vote of 39%, yet 99% of ALP voters here think it’s a GOOD result?

    evan – point to ONE post that has said it’s a GOOD result – just one. Otherwise shut up with the nonsense.

  20. Anyone know where the let’s get the polluters adds are showing? Any more opinions about their quality?

  21. Labor is hated here by some on PB for the very reason ..

    RUDD is hated here by some on PB for the very reason…

  22. [Combet should be charged with the job of selling the ETS. It’s a loser for Gillard and the more people hear her speaking about it the more they become convinced she “lied”.]

    I agree with this.

    Recall parliament where Gillard can get on with prime ministerial stuff, allowing Combet to continue the CT sell.

  23. [83

    Rod Hagen

    Posted Sunday, July 17, 2011 at 11:14 pm | Permalink

    Hewson led Keating as preferred PM by 43% to 28% in Jan 1992.
    Alexander Downer led Keating 48% to 28% in July 1994
    ]

    And what Wonderful PM’s they became 🙂

    Oh Hang on…..

  24. anon

    thanks for mentioning murdoch and don’t give up just yet on a game changer from that direction. the australian papers might be sold soon or first, but brooks just arrested, incriminating evidence is everyday – what would be the first worse thing that can happen to murdoch. a rudderless telegraph, that’s something i’d like to see … maybe they’d just keep on course, but it’s a really wild ride in england that has just begun.

  25. [I wonder who she’s fearful of challenging her?]

    Evan in order…

    Greg Combet
    Simon Crean
    Bill Shorten
    Wayne Swan

    ALP on 26 Primary Vote so what they are 14% higher than the Greens LOLOLOLOL

    Frank and co

    The Public have made their mind up on Gillard.
    They dont trust her.
    They believe she lied to them.
    They want to kick her out at the ballot box.

    Gillard is toxic at the moment and she’s no way capable of coming back.

  26. Another problem for the government is that we have a year of rain and cooler temperatures on the eastern seaboard which is given people the view that climate change does not exist. Meantime in the arctic the melt goes on and droughts and freakish weather events continue.
    No drought and heatwaves have made people beleive that climate change is rubbish.

  27. evan14,

    Her appearance on Q & A, the NPC and the Brisbane forum were positives. Gayle said Julia’s shopping centre trip was going well until that moment.

    The polls won’t turn around quickly, but they will, and I believe Julia will be a huge part of that.

    The MSM are slowly starting to question Abbott and his pathetic lies.

    It’s far from over.

    I do think Combet should get his face out there more. He is a huge asset.

  28. I guess one way of viewing recent polls/events is that its a battle of facts vs myths (Gillard’s a backstabber, she LIED, the carbon price will doom us all and do nothing), and unfortunately so far the myths are more popular. It’d be nice to take them down somehow.

    This is astonishing still.

    Labor could be 20/80 in the polls and people will still rationalise in every way they can EXCEPT accept that Gillard is the problem, her lack of ability and lack of leadership skills.

    I have never seen such classic denial.

  29. Thomas Paine,
    Stop it with the violent murder imagery and the Prime Minister. This is not a remake of Fatal Attraction.

  30. [RUDD is hated here by some on PB for the very reason…]

    My dislike of Rudd has nothing to do with his leadership skills. Which were inadequate, to say the least. My issue with him is he is such a chameleon who will change his persona and stance based on what will serve his agenda. Right now there is a mythology that he was some sort of progressive outsider martyr, when he is a conservative faction hack who was dumped as cold-bloodedly as he acquired power for himself.

    His very sneaky performance on Q&A demonstrated what a phoney he is.

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