GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement poll from Nielsen, presumably conducted between Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400, has the Coalition’s lead out from 59-41 to 61-39. Further comment superfluous, but primary votes and leadership figures, and presumably also some attitudinal stuff, to follow.
UPDATE: After falling a point short of overtaking Julia Gillard in last month’s poll, Tony Abbott has rocketed to an 11-point lead as preferred prime minister, up five points to 51 per cent with Gillard down six to 40 per cent.
UPDATE 2: Labor primary vote down a point to 26 per cent …
UPDATE 3: Michelle Grattan in the Sydney Morning Herald:
In results that will send waves of fear through the government, approval for Ms Gillard’s performance has tumbled another 3 points to 34 per cent, while her disapproval rating has jumped 3 to 62 per cent. The carbon plan has been given an unequivocal thumbs down, with 56 per cent of respondents opposed to a carbon price, 52 per cent rejecting the government’s carbon price and compensation package, and 53 per cent believing it will leave them worse off. More than half (56 per cent) say Ms Gillard has no mandate for her plan, and the same proportion want an early poll before the plan is introduced. Nearly half (47 per cent) think Bob Brown and the Greens are mainly responsible for the government’s package. More than half (52 per cent) say an Abbott government should repeal the package while 43 per cent believe it should be left in place under a new government. Ms Gillard yesterday denied she had been ringing around to gauge backbench support for her failing leadership.
The Coalition’s primary vote is up 2 points to 51 per cent, while the Greens’ is down 1 point to 11 per cent. Approval of Mr Abbott has risen a point to 47 per cent. His disapproval is down 2 points to 48 per cent … Ms Gillard’s approval rating is her worst so far and the lowest for a PM since Paul Keating’s 34 per cent in March 1995.
UPDATE (18/7/2011): Essential Research is kinder for the government, showing a slight improvement from last week’s worst-ever result for them: the Coalition’s lead is down from 57-43 to 56-44, with the Coalition down a point to 49 per cent, Labor up one to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Essential being a two-week rolling average, this was half conducted immediately before and half immediately after the carbon tax announcement, with the latter evidently having provided the better figures. I have noted in the past that, for whatever reason, Essential seems to get more favourable results for the carbon tax than phone pollsters: as well as being consistent with the voting intention findings (albeit not to the extent of statistical significance), the Essential survey also finds direct support for the carbon tax has increased since the announcement, with approval up four points to 39 per cent and disapproval down four to 49 per cent.
This raises at least the possibility that the phone polling methodology behind the recent Morgan and Nielsen results, as well as next week’s Newspoll, is skewed somewhat against the carbon tax – unless of course the internet-based Essential (or perhaps some other aspect of Essential’s methodology) is skewed in its favour. It should also be noted that Essential’s recovery only returns support to the level it was at in the June 14 survey, before a dive on July 11. For all that, respondents are just as pessimistic about their own prospects under the tax as were Morgan’s: 10 per cent say they will be better off against 69 per cent worse off, and 46 per cent believe it will be bad for Australia against 34 per cent good. Further questions inquire about respondent’s self-perceived level of knowledge about the tax, and their reactions about a range of responses to it.
Another reason, hot off the press, to back in a Labor victory at the next election…..
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/life-style/health-fitness/health/Optimists-less-likelier-to-have-strokes/articleshow/9323833.cms
[oyley
Posted Friday, July 22, 2011 at 8:46 pm | Permalink
Joe6 pac,
With fuel excluded from the CC package can you see any reason for the TWU to be against it ?
Serious question.]
No For myself and my business from what so far has been released I will be better off so I have no probs.
Tony Sheldon on the other hand is a mate of P howes and bitter that their plan has not worked out. as they thought.
No proof But A Strong industry rumor
[Make your case which section which words ..
Go on establish your case for once…!]
Dave ya’ll post links and expect me to find the answers in them. So you read up! I can’t do your work for you.
Abbott. “Shoplifting and assault are absolute crap”.
Hey Gary,
Don’t worry about Carney. When he starts going back through your previous emails trying to verbal you, you know you’ve hit a raw nerve.
You score a point against him and he stops being the reasonable, civilized nice guy, a high-falutin’ sounding “Associate Editor” (writing “more in sorrow than in anger” about the deterioration of our polity… and it’s all down to whomever’s Labor Leader at the time) and turns into an attack dog: snarling, vituperative and nasty.
You haven’t really scratched the surface until he calls you a “Labor-loving moron”… although I do see there’s a reference to his blocking your emails via a spam filter… the first beatified step towards sainthood.
Can’t say how I know any of this this. But I just do.
I wear the badge with pride.
Don’t be discouraged. If you write something to him that gets particularly up his conservative clacker, he’ll respond, spam filter or no spam filter.
Has he accused you of invading his privacy yet, by using his office email address? No? Many wonderful pleasures yet to come for you…
Shaun’s a complex character. He wants to be good, but he can’t help himself. Basically a decent guy who picked the wrong angel and can’t stand to admit it.
Good hunting!
What would be worse: being “charged with two matters” or saying “Don’t you know who I am?” Which matter would ‘our’ media pursue relentlessly? And why?
That was a standard plea in mitigation stance in the early 80’s if you were angling for a spent conviction order. Poor depressed little housewife, pleading for hubby’s attention. Only way to get it was to nick things.
Then the feminists came along and it was no longer politically defensible to use it.
Worked for me for a good while but, Charlton.
Glen@8761
You made the claim
Your *link* is 776 pages.
Show us all which part *proves* your case ? If you can you will without further ado.
If you don’t it proves you cannot.
[9 Anti-discrimination considerations
(d) take account of the principles embodied in the Family
Responsibilities Convention, in particular those relating to:
(i) preventing discrimination against workers who have
family responsibilities; or
(ii) helping workers to reconcile their employment and
family responsibilities; and]
http://www.workplace.gov.au/NR/rdonlyres/9398E7E7-5F2F-4D3A-A8FD-BB02E18A5BC3/0/wra_wc_act2005.pdf
There! Now Withdraw!
[Bushfire Bill]
Taking the wife to abduls next week so you might want to start getting a sling
Regarding the “coal mining” adds, are these regional ? Have they only recedntly started ?
I have yet to see one of them.
I do think that to compare the Carbon Pricing Scheme with workchoices is a bit like comparing apples to oranges. After all the CPS puts money in your pocket, workchoices stripped back your wages and conditions. Very different. As far as the punters dislike of the CPS, it is looking increasingly likely that Tony Abbott will not be LOTO come the election. Malcolm Turnbull will make his move. Not just because of Tony Abotts flakey position on climate change, not cause Abbotts position himself in the far – right tea-party faction is trashing the Libs brand, but because he has hitched his wagon to Murdoch. JSP, I disagree that most people are disconnected to this story. There is no doubt that there is a lot more to play, and will spread here (at the very least his newspaper assets will get sold off). Murdoch is fastly becomming poison, and it wont do Abbott any good to be seen to be associated with him.
Robb Gambit #101
Shhhhh! All of youse!
The poor woman’s depressed. We can’t comment any further.
Can the article by Laurie Oakes be far behind? Where is Glenn Milne with his Stradivarius when you need him?
Bugger the popcorn… pass the Cipramil.
Joe6pac 8760,
Thanks for that.
Interesting what you say.
Howes is happy with the package so Sheldons opposition may well be more internal politics than members welfare?
The main reason I ask is perhaps operators such as yourself and individual owner drivers may have views different to Sheldon.
Cheers.
You haven’t linked the ad, you haven’t even given the lib talking point (I have not doubt this is version of) the ‘facts’ in the add you need to make (well if it were a considered factually based assertion it would need a foundation clearly the libs have abandoned this completely in favor of whatever fracking lie they feel like telling at a given moment) your case.
Then if you linked the add, and gave a short summary of the ‘facts’ you makeup to reach a conclusion you could give me a section and a hypothetical analysis of how the section might have been applied to the hypothetical case you might be able to base on the add, if indeed you had any at all, and frankly it seems like it is a ‘I’ve read somewhere’ ‘party HQ said it was a lie in the election’, ‘I heard at a party function’ type assertion lacking any of the analysis, facts fabricated or otherwise, or application of the act.
We don’t need to do any work, this is a joke, you need to make a case before someone needs to rebut it. You called me a liar, you’ve got nothing. Absolutely utterly disgraceful and pathetic.
Glen@8767
Failed. No proof, no where near it.
You have yet again made claims which you cannot prove.
Withdraw.
My speculations about MJF:
In the normal course of events, she would have resigned quietly earlier this year, citing depression.
Then, when these charges came out, she would be an ‘ex Liberal Senator’ and no embarrassment to the party.
Which leads me to speculate further: she was probably going to go off as discreetly as possible fairly soon, but events have overtaken her.
Small window of opportunity between July 1st and now; they probably hoped it would still be a few months before it all came to a head.
Hope some bright journos ask the same kinds of questions.
Are we having another glenathon?
[Shaun’s a complex character. He wants to be good, but he can’t help himself. Basically a decent guy who picked the wrong angel and can’t stand to admit it.
Good hunting!]
Thanks BB, the show aint over yet.
dave you’re an idiot, can’t you read!
[The most effective ad with the mother and kids would never have happened in real life and she’d have cause for unfair dismissal even under Workchoices itself]
Well thats just great for her then. IF she as a union member she’s got a reasonable chance. If not, can be difficult to run such a case, particularly for a single mum who’s got to earn a living in the meantime while its being sorted. I’m sure she would be able to use that employer for a reference as well.
Cant get away from it. WorkChoices sucked.
I posted a couple of days ago how Roo had donated big bikkies to the US Chamber of Commerce and they just somehow started lobbying for the watering down of the FCPA laws about bribery etc overseas.
Here is a bit of an update. Just so happens that Roo has hired the law firm doing the lobbying.
[Last week, ThinkProgress raised questions about the timing of a $1 million contribution from News Corp. to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce that came shortly before the Chamber launched a high-profile campaign to weaken the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA) — the very same anti-bribery law that News Corp. could be prosecuted under in the United States. The Chamber quickly dismissed any links between the News Corp contribution and its campaign as “preposterous.”
Today, however, it was revealed that News Corp. has retained Debevoise & Plimpton, the firm of former Bush Attorney General Michael Mukasey, the very same lawyer who just so happens to be leading the Chamber’s campaign to weaken the FCPA……………………………………………Last month, Mukasey testified before Congress and suggested changes to the FCPA, some of which would appear to potentially benefit News Corp., such as limiting the liability of a parent company if it can prove it was not aware of its foreign subsidiary’s criminal activities. Yesterday during testimony before Parliament, James and Rupert Murdoch both disclaimed any knowledge of the alleged criminal activities taking place at U.S.-based News Corps’ U.K. subsidiary, News International.]
http://thinkprogress.org/justice/2011/07/20/274591/news-corp-hires-same-law-firm-leading-u-s-chamber-campaign-to-weaken-anti-bribery-law/
[ Bushfire Bill
Taking the wife to abduls next week so you might want to start getting a sling]
Joe someone who loves to watch big jets landing and who appreciates Abdul’s has gotta be a candidate for “Good Bloke” in my books.
But what you wrote earlier on strains the relationship. However, I’ve decided to forgive you.
Enjoy the falafels.
I’ve taken so many people to Abdul’s who’ve looked at the decor and the food with a somewhat alarmed eye, who’ve seen the somewhat eccentric standards of service and thought, “Why am I here?”.
Without exception, all of them have ended up the night asking me if I was going to finish my plate and, if not, could they scoff it down?
Good Lebbo food’s like that. No wonder they’re all so plump.
Don’t forget the lemon drink. Half lemon drink, half fizzy mineral water. Nectar of the Gods.
And the bread… the bread! How fresh can bread be?
Almost feel sorry for the dancing senator. Liberal she may be but her life is in tatters. Not only will she lose her senate position and any pension but she will not be employable as a lawyer. Given that she is on a good income it seems likely that she really is/was in the middle of a breakdown
What is in the water in Adelaide?????? Definitley some very odd politicians – Fishnet, Pyne?
Imacca, they showed something that was illegal under the Act and passed it off as what was allowed under the Act.
Now is that or is that not a lie?
[Doyley
Posted Friday, July 22, 2011 at 9:06 pm | Permalink
Joe6pac 8760,
Thanks for that.
Interesting what you say.
Howes is happy with the package so Sheldons opposition may well be more internal politics than members welfare?
The main reason I ask is perhaps operators such as yourself and individual owner drivers may have views different to Sheldon.]
Both wanna be senators and this is what is wrong with labor at the moment;
The rank and file are pissed off and the labor elite are too stupid to realize it.
Cheers.
[The most effective ad with the mother and kids would never have happened in real life and she’d have cause for unfair dismissal even under Workchoices itself]
The most effective is merely Glen’s opinion or the talking point, I don’t think the effectiveness came from any add, but that is just my opinion, ‘the mother and the kids’ is a vague reference, unhelpful I have no idea what Glen’s case is.
Glen@8777
Just because you have yet again failed – there is no need to abuse people.
May I remind you what you said only tonight
I do not personally abuse other posters and I cant understand why this cant be reciprocated.
Now withdraw ! Hypocrite
Thefinnigans The Finnigans
@
@latikambourke oh dear, poor poor MaryJo, We dolphin dont suffer depression, only you weakling humans do
11 seconds ago
[AshGhebranious @belinda_josey She was on several senate committees too. Including Comms (NBN) and Environment (Climate Change)
5 minutes ago in reply to belinda_josey]
[AshGhebranious @belinda_josey which prompts the question… Why was she selected to those committees then???
4 minutes ago in reply to belinda_josey]
[ Gaffhook
Posted Friday, July 22, 2011 at 9:12 pm | Permalink
I posted a couple of days ago how Roo had donated big bikkies to the US Chamber of Commerce and they just somehow started lobbying for the watering down of the FCPA laws about bribery etc overseas.
Here is a bit of an update. Just so happens that Roo has hired the law firm doing the lobbying.]
Thanks for that gaffhook.
Looks like Rupe is already working on Plan B in the States.
[Both wanna be senators and this is what is wrong with labor at the moment;
The rank and file are pissed off and the labor elite are too stupid to realize it.
Cheers.]
Interesting assertion I’m not sure there are that many paying members who are pissed off, and I doubt they’d vote for Tony no matter how pissed off they were.
[dave you’re an idiot, can’t you read!]
Alo, alo, alo, our Resident Village Idiot calling someone else idiot.
Frank, how does it go again. Ma Kettle Pa Pot?
If Fisher does lose her seat or retire, does she qualify for a parliamentary pension?
Neither does he. As usual.
Hew will squeal and invoke I’m being picked on real soon.
Bushfire Bill
Posted Friday, July 22, 2011 at 9:12 pm | Permalink
[ Bushfire Bill
Taking the wife to abduls next week so you might want to start getting a sling
Joe someone who loves to watch big jets landing and who appreciates Abdul’s has gotta be a candidate for “Good Bloke” in my books.
But what you wrote earlier on strains the relationship. However, I’ve decided to forgive you.]
Which was?
[there is no need to abuse people.]
It aint abuse when it’s the truth.
I gave you your evidence that you asked for.
You wont or cant read it or refuse to accept it.
Therefore you’re an idiot.
[Almost feel sorry for the dancing senator. Liberal she may be but her life is in tatters. Not only will she lose her senate position and any pension but she will not be employable as a lawyer. Given that she is on a good income it seems likely that she really is/was in the middle of a breakdown]
Awww… don’t waste your energy. Her side wouldn’t.
She’s a nasty piece of work, and it’s not just the dancing.
It’s war and civilians are legitimate targets. She’d be the first to agree with you.
(If she wasn’t so “depressed” at being caught.)
Thefinnigans The Finnigans
STOP THE PRESS. #MaryJoe has been inhaling to much CO2 #hokeypokey #auspol
7 seconds ago
Frank it is also disturbing that union execs on damn big money, take a stance on behalf of their members, without saying if that membership have been asked their opinion, OR even if the members are aware the big yapper will be opened to the media. I know for sure it certainly wouldn’t happen in my union. Any public statements on behalf of the members, on a topic as big as the carbon pricing, in fact any major announcement, are always canvassed first.
Finns
🙂
Thats not evidence.
Withdraw !
Bushfire
May I too join the chorus in support of Abduls.
Joe tell the wife to order “ladies fingers” is they still have them – Like delicious sausage rolls.
Mind you the place was Abduls Lebanesque restaurant in my day and the menus had some very weird spellings.
Went back four years ago – food still good – the decor is definitely MORE upmarket. (smiley but cannot do it)
Great place. Baclava good too.
Joe6 pack,
Thanks for your reply.
I was wondering how much of Sheldons response was members welfare driven and how much personal agenda driven.
cheers.
From The Guardian’s web site (as reported by Murdoch’s WSJ)
[12.10pm: The US justice department is preparing subpoenas as part of preliminary investigations into News Corporation relating to alleged foreign bribery and alleged hacking of 9/11 victims’ answerphone messages, the Wall Street Journal is reporting. More as we get it.]
The dancing senator is quite mad — hopefully she will get the treatment she needs through the SA prison system. Lucky for the Libs, Malcolm Fraser put the 1977 referendum through in terms of Senate casual vacancies…!
If Fisher’s depression is so bad that she is committing criminal offences, she has to resign. She can’t have it both ways.
If the ad which Glen hasn’t detailed can be interpreted in a way Glen hasn’t really detailed could then be considered under the Act which Glen hasn’t detailed then if the conclusion under the Act which Glen hasn’t detailed could be sustained (or was completely 100% convincing) then Glen might have a case that a single workchoices ad was either slightly or largely misleading.
The harsh reality of workchoices which people knew didn’t depend on this one ad, it didn’t depend on all the ads when viewed together, it didn’t depend on the angry street marches, the effective antiworkchoices campaign prevailed because real people were really hurt and lost security, conditions and in the retail sector at least (which impacts a lot of people) lost pay.
Even if Glen had made his case rather than having not even put one up, his point wouldn’t be made. It is typical liberal dishonestly. Avoid the policy, avoid the policy outcomes, forget entirely about what is good for the country, see if you tell a lie often enough how many people believe it.
[david
Posted Friday, July 22, 2011 at 9:19 pm | Permalink
Frank it is also disturbing that union execs on damn big money, take a stance on behalf of their members, without saying if that membership have been asked their opinion, OR even if the members are aware the big yapper will be opened to the media. I know for sure it certainly wouldn’t happen in my union. Any public statements on behalf of the members, on a topic as big as the carbon pricing, in fact any major announcement, are always canvassed first.
]
Indeed.
the TWU, like the ETU are playing silly buggers to say the least.
[Which was?]
Sorry guys,
all that silly “Gillard’s gone” vox pop guff.
I’ll call your vox pop and raise you a Doctor’s Wife.
There’s plenty of them her where I live and they hate Abbott.
Basically, as you get older, you realise that you tend to pick people to talk to that are likely to share your views.There’s also an element of groupthink. It’s hard (and I’m no angel on this), but you have to discount anecdotal evidence and look to first principles.
I don’t mean polls, either. They’re just snapshots this far out from an election. No electorate has stayed as angry as this one (apparently) is for two years without good cause. And Julia’s “lie” doesn’t cut it as a source of anger. It’s newspaper hype. A national tantrum. The public will calm down.
[There! Now Withdraw!]
LOL! That is weak as piss “helping workers reconcile”
Doesn’t mean that a employer can’t say “those are your shifts, take them or leave them”
All they have to do is “help” them “reconcile”, which in a legal sense is airy fairy language.