Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

Newspoll has conducted its usual fortnighly poll from a normal sample of 1151, but for some reason The Australian only provides results for preferred Labor leader. This offers yet more evidence that Julia Gillard is now less popular than Kevin Rudd, with the former favoured by 29 per cent against 36 per cent for the latter, with 10 per cent opting for Wayne Swan. The Australian’s report leads with the news that “only one in 10 voters back Wayne Swan as their preferred Labor leader”, which hardly comes as a surprise. Swan’s inclusion in the mix distinguishes the poll from previous Newspoll efforts six weeks ago and early last year, as does a six point hike in the undecided rating from 19 per cent to 25 per cent.

Today also saw the weekly Essential Research poll, which had Labor slipping another point on two-party preferred to trail 54-46. The Coalition is up a point on the primary vote to 47 per cent, with Labor and the Greens steady on 35 per cent and 11 per cent respectively. Contra Nielsen, the poll finds a slight increase in support for the carbon tax, with support up five points on a fortnight ago to 39 per cent and opposition down two to 49 per cent. If “the money paid by big polluting industries was used to compensate low and middle income earners and small businesses for increased prices”, support is 51 per cent (down three points) and opposition 33 per cent (up three points). Support for the National Broadband Network has increased since a dip in February, up six points to 54 per cent with opposition down three to 28 per cent. There are also two questions on Israel-Palestine which do not to my mind prove terribly illuminating.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,311 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  2. Boerwar@2219

    jv
    If I got it right, the judge in recent sentencing used the concept of what I suppose was a generic victim. The perp’s connection to the generic victim was that he created the generic victim by providing a market.

    Yes, it’s an interesting legal construct compared with the traditional definition of a victim. I think it would very much depend on the circumstances of each case, that element.

  3. [Chris Bowen will have to start deporting some of these people.]

    Problem is, govt is deporting in a humane way — making sure the person is returned properly. Of course, that is wrong too beause it is too slow!

  4. [Chris Bowen will have to start deporting some of these people]

    I think you’ll find, if you bothered to dig a little deeper, that he does plan to deport some of them hence the incident overnight.

  7. Hello from home
    I hope the rioters at Villawood realize that there is now close to no sympathy for there plight and it is all there own fault. Australians, I believe where sympathetic a while ago but now after riots and tantrums they have blown it. Whoever is advising them is a idiot. As for the ringleaders they should never be allowed asylum in Australia.

  8. [The Finnigans
    Posted Thursday, April 21, 2011 at 12:33 pm | Permalink

    Finnigan is currently under investigation

    FARQing hell, I AM INNOCENT!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 😡 ]

    You have our confidence and will remain on the front bench of PB.

  9. [What does that entail jenauthor?]

    Not sure Tom — heard Bowen say they negotiate with the destination govt to ensure safe passage etc. (am paraphrasing). He inferred the process was not easy in certain countries.

  10. [Whoever is advising them is a idiot. As for the ringleaders they should never be allowed asylum in Australia.]

    Some ‘extremists’ (and I used the term deliberately) who advise such people seem to have an ideological reason for what they say/do and appear to have little regard for the actual individuals involved.

    Sarah Hanson Young does the same — there are times when her stand has two completely contradictory elements and she simply does not see it (this, to my observation, is a Green affliction generally).

  13. [— heard Bowen say they negotiate with the destination govt to ensure safe passage etc. (am paraphrasing). He inferred the process was not easy in certain countries.]

    I expect that won’t be an insurmountable obstacle. Once that I cleared the trouble makers should be deported asap.

    Can you believe that there’s a demonstration underway outside the detention centre calling on the government to release all of the detainees? What fantasy world are they living in?

  14. [bluegreen
    Posted Thursday, April 21, 2011 at 5:21 pm | Permalink

    Joe6

    The government have a political licence to be a strict as they want now.]

    Yes they do and so they should, but watch all the apologists come out now and say it’s not there fault.

  17. [Yes they do and so they should, but watch all the apologists come out now and say it’s not there fault.]

    If my tolerance has run out. Then the rest of Australia must be livid.

  19. bluegreen@2256

    JV
    Any kid in a pornongraphic photo is a victim.

    The legal elements interest me, and it depends on the definitions of each element you mention. Bill Henson’s nude pictures of a 13 year old may give sexual gratification to a wierdo, but the subject was not a victim. Nor were the pictures pornographic. There is definitely a sliding scale, with Henson type pictures at one end.

    The trouble with this sort of thing is that emotional outrage kicks in very early (cf Henson’s pictures) so extra care must be taken to be objective.

  20. Just posted on MT‘s website…..he didn’t respond to my tweet earlier today..

    When are you going to post a positive story on your website about the Armidale NBN site going live this week?
    Don’t you’re legion of followers deserve to know how well the NBN is being received in Armidale?
    After all >90% uptake is pretty impressive….and you were quick to use the poorer uptake in Tassie as an example of what a folly the NBN obviously is….

  21. It’s interesting that some people who criticise the government for their asylum seeker policy being too drastic now want to see the rioters gorn as soon as possible.

  22. So a couple of asylum seekers get their claims rejected and they cause a bit of mischief.

    So we are all going to lose our jobs and our asset values are going to crash over it!

    S N O R E !

    Must be a slow news day. What about the NBN, it must be going sensational, haven’t heard a word about it for zonks 😆

  24. [So a couple of asylum seekers get their claims rejected and they cause a bit of mischief.]

    100 people rioted and burnt down a building worth several million dollars. A buildign to provide them with computers and healthcare for example.

    Bloody hell it aint a bit of mischief.

  25. [So a couple of asylum seekers get their claims rejected and they cause a bit of mischief.]

    A bit of mischief is nicking a lolly from the store, Burning down public buildings is a different matter,

  26. the business model as mooted here earlier by myself cuppa and other is quite simple

    content and such is easy to crowdsource

    local advertsers would help defary, admittedly minimal, cost

    this is what the OLD media fear

  31. Did anyone catch barnyard on Richo’s Sky show last night, a real blustering display. I loved Richo’s put down, take three short breaths to him, and then listen to the other person’s in this case, Senator Stephen Conroy’s answer. He aloso asically said he rather be in a popular party with an unpopular leader than a popular leader in an unpopular party.

    Also further committing to run in New England at the next election, mind you no one in QLD will give up their safe or not so safe seat to him which sort of makes him as popular as a pork chop in a Synagogue up there one would think.

  32. On the Villawood issue:

    1. The government should distinguish between the rejected rioters and the compliant refugees awaiting assessment, and announce the separation of the two categories.

    2. The government should announce the phasing out of detention centres for asylum seekers. Detention centres are for those awaiting deportation: non-refugees and visa over-stayers.

    3. The government should quickly extend to all asylum seekers what it is doing with several hundred asylum-seeking unaccompanied minors and ‘vulnerable’ families – place them in the community while they wait.

    4. The government should act to repeal the excised islands legislation.

  33. further

    in the age of the pamphleteer, there was literally hundreds of publishers

    wecould be on the verge of the individual as the media company

    (as an aside doug mulray did some groundbreaking stuff way back when using the basic, for those times, internet resources)

  40. [BH
    Posted Thursday, April 21, 2011 at 2:32 pm | Permalink

    Richo has absolutely nothing good to say about Labor

    victoria – I have a feeling it’s because his RW cronies in Phillip Street are dead and buried now. He probably hasn’t got as much influence as he used to have.]

    I thought it was Sussex St where they hung out. Phillip Street was the name of a Theatre Review company, and maybe that might be a better place for comedy. At least it would allow the audience to throw a few rotten eggs, tomatoes and so on.

  41. Cuppa

    On Newman’s article – Gos @ 2173

    The comments were half for and half against, roughly, and he was picked up on not mentioning climate. He was also criticised for getting his figures wrong. Perhaps THAT is a characteristic of rightwingers!
    I found it a bit worrying that the Head Bozo of the ABC is so patently on the side of business and scorns the worker. It *must* have an influence.

  42. bg @ 2274

    s n o r e !

    I’m sick of hearing about it. Asylum seekers is a problem all over the world. Do you have any solutions, STOP the BOATS maybe? I have full confidence in the minister in charge Chris Bowen, or would you prefer Scott Morrison bg?

    I’m more interested in real issues affecting Australian’s, like the state of the economy (which is moving exceptionally well) and the NBN (which must be going sensational as Turnbull has been missing in action) 😉

  47. [Asylum seekers is a problem all over the world.]

    Has anyone denied that?

    [Do you have any solutions, STOP the BOATS maybe?]

    I think Labor have it about right at the moment – that is trying to balance humanity with deterrent

    [I have full confidence in the minister in charge Chris Bowen]

    So do I. I’m sure he doesn’t think it’s one big Y-A-W-N

  48. Could you blokes at least talk about asylum seekers late at night when I’m more usually posting? It will help me sleep 😆

  49. David@bigpond

    Rightwing stuff, especially thoughtful posts, is a bit rare here. Mod Lib can stir them up a bit at times but makes some useful points. Some others only very rarely.

    But we do need alternative views, and Abbott slogans will certainly not do it.

    So, welcome and good luck.

  50. bg @ 2274

    [s n o r e !

    I’m sick of hearing about it. Asylum seekers is a problem all over the world. Do you have any solutions, STOP the BOATS maybe? I have full confidence in the minister in charge Chris Bowen, or would you prefer Scott Morrison bg?

    I’m more interested in real issues affecting Australian’s, like the state of the economy (which is moving exceptionally well) and the NBN (which must be going sensational as Turnbull has been missing in action) 😉 ]

    Snore your way into election defeat then. This is a serious issue with the electorate.

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