Seven days before the axe falls, to the extent that the commencement of pre-polling at the start of this week hasn’t lowered it already. Local level intelligence from around the place:
• The Illawarra Mercury has published two more IRIS Research polls of local electorates, which I presume had samples of 400 and margins of error approaching 5 per cent. In Wollongong, Labor’s Noreen Hay is found to be headed for defeat at the hands of independent Gordon Bradbery, who leads her 54-46. In Keira however it’s 50-50, which compares with a 52-48 Liberal lead in the previous poll conducted early last month.
• Informed local observer Oakeshott Country relates in comments that a new publication by the name of The Port Paper has published a poll of 373 respondents in Port Macquarie conducted by Strategic Marketing. This found independent incumbent Peter Besseling on 34 per cent, Nationals candidate Leslie Williams on 40 per cent and Labor on 14 per cent, which panned out to 50-50 after preferences (although skepticism has been expressed about the methodology used here). Oakeshott Country notes the Nationals are putting a lot of effort into the seat with an emphasis on negative advertising, which is presumably not a sign of over-confidence.
• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian on the Nationals’ hopes:
The rural and regional-based party is looking to add six seats to its kitty next Saturday. Three presently belong to Labor: Bathurst, in the state’s central west, held by popular retiring MP Gerard Martin; Monaro, on the far south coast, held by Emergency Services Minister Steve Whan; and Cessnock, held by another popular retiring MP, Kerry Hickey. Those would be sweet victories, but not nearly as sweet as defeating three popular rural independents whom the Nationals regard as interlopers: Dawn Fardell in the western seat of Dubbo; Peter Draper in the northern seat of Tamworth; and Peter Besseling in the north coast seat of Port Macquarie. Independent MPs will not feel the full force of the anti-Labor swing. What they might feel instead is their conservative constituents’ wrath at the actions of federal independent MPs Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor, whose seats of Lyne and New England overlap the state seats of Tamworth and Port Macquarie. Stoner plans to leverage Oakeshott’s and Windsor’s support for the minority Gillard government for every vote it’s worth.
• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian further reports that Labor strategists are “cautiously confident” that Monaro MP Steve Whan can defend his 6.3 per cent margin, which would be an enormous achievement under the circumstances.
• Sean Nicholls of the Sydney Morning Herald reports a heavy duty campaigning effort has Labor increasingly confident that John Robertson can defend the 22.4 per cent margin in Blacktown.
• Stephen Bromhead, the Nationals candidate to replace the retiring John Turner in their safe seat of Myall Lakes, is in a stable condition in John Hunter Hospital after a car accident.
• Centrebet has issued a breathless press release saying its betting points to a result of Coalition 69, Labor 17, independents five and Greens two.
• Latest additions to the election guide have focused in inner and southern Sydney: Vaucluse, Cronulla, Coogee, Maroubra, Heffron, Drummoyne, Strathfield, Canterbury, Rockdale, Kogarah, Oatley, Parramatta, Sydney and Marrickville.
I always get the two confused but I think I’ve got it right – Reba was Joe’s squeeze and Cherie was Arbib’s
They got fourteen last time, so not implausible.
Sylvia Hale saving the Jail there from privatisation just might have paid dividends
The Democrats often got 15s in the Hunter.
Yep, that’s right oakeshott
But, it’s not like nepotism. It’s based purely on talent and merit y’understand
The Democrats where the opposition in the Hunter
OC – I am sure about one, not sure about the other.
Keeping em close is the best way to make sure they follow the party line!
Meanwhile Nori was married to Faulkner and she had a relationship with Gibson who had just finished having an affair with Koperberg’s wife – I think I’ve got it.
Joe was a lovesick puppy for Reba…
Albo and Carmel …
No oakeshott, there’s more. you forgot Della and Belinda
I once watched Sandra sleep right the way through her daughter’s school play… and then give her the ‘you were wonderful darling..” at the end.
Bloke wanted to belt me at Henson park one afternoon when I called Carmel Mrs Albanese
blackburnpseph, we all do that
These are only the long term and publicly announced relationships, best not to get into the quick shags for short term advantage!!!
Should that have been Ms Albo?
I hear in the case of one former independent who went on to higher things that its very short term advantage
blackburnpseph, I was being respectful
Of course it is when it is outside the faction
And of course you were…
By all accounts he was in and out of the faction in under a minute!
Of course, if it was an independent, not many numbers to count!
From the SUnday Papers:
Greens’ Balmain Candidate Jamie Parker’s former business partner is an interesting fellow.
And apparently things afe turning nasty out there, with dirty tricks allegations flying thick and fast – but there is no mention that the CV of Keira ALP candidate Ryan Park is being scrutinised.
The best the Tele can come up with is a beat up about no shows at the ALP campaign launch.
ALP Campaign Launch tonight at Wests Leagues Club apparently. Gillard is turning up. Do these people have a death wish!
Only six more sleeps to go.
Could the Greens run an more ineffective campaign. Labor primary votes fall fall through floor in an unprecendented manner. And given this, where do you think the Greens Primary Vote is? Its the same bloody place it was in the Federal election- A paltry ~11%.
“Real change for a change”. Did they kidnap the genius from the ALP who coined “moving forward”?
[blue_green
Posted Sunday, March 20, 2011 at 8:47 am | Permalink
Could the Greens run an more ineffective campaign]
I think you are being unfair b_g. The poverty of the Greens vote is an indicator of how desperate NSW is to change the government. The federal 2010 result has highlighted to the electors “a vote for the Greens is a vote for ALP”.
Hey, even his eminence Gus, has announced the ALP could win a minority government (given he thinks the ALP will win 25 seats, I guess that means he thinks the Greens are going to win 20 seats or so. Hmmm, lets see!
@176….it is quite possible labor wins 25 seats or slightly higher
Mod Libs,
A few questions on the NSW Greens.
1. Who is the NSW Greens Leader?
2. What are the main issues they are running on?
3. Where have they laid blows on the the Govt or the coalition?
eddieward @ 127
[The Vietnamese population in the Cabramatta electorate is less than ten percent of the population! Don’t believe every Kevin Bloody Wilson joke you hear.]
Bullshit.
[residents born in South East Asia (32.0% . . .
Buddhists (35.0% . . .]
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/nsw/2011/guide/cabr.htm
Unless the Yugoslavs are flocking to Buddhism, I’m guessing the majority of that faith are Indochinese.
In 2006, in the suburb proper, there were more people who were born on Vietnam than were born in Australia, and that’s before you’ve even counted the people of Vietnamese extraction born in Australia or outside Vietnam.
[In the 2006 Census, 27.5% of persons usually resident in Cabramatta (Suburb) stated they were born in Australia. Other common responses within Cabramatta (Suburb) were: Viet Nam 31.2%, Cambodia 9.0%, China 5.5%, Laos 1.6% and Thailand 1.3%.]
http://www.censusdata.abs.gov.au/ABSNavigation/prenav/LocationSearch?collection=Census&period=2006&areacode=SSC11157&producttype=QuickStats&breadcrumb=PL&action=401
But I suspect Kevin Bloody Wilson has some inside knowledge, having played Cabramatta more times than Reba Meagher visited her electoral office.
taking everyone’s guesses there are certainly a lot of unknowns. Balmain…..lib?
coogee…..Alp ?, Smithfield….. lib?, keira….lib? etc……. all are of course possible.
Even ….. Evan “s certain Alp losses are not all certain in my opinion
Alp….. min less than 20….. max high 20’s. Worse case np +1, best case +6
ind could get up to 10 if all went well.
actually in most seats except i think Coogee and maybe one other
a vote for the greens is a vote for the liberals….. especially so in Balmain
Frankie V. at 179 – well aren’t I a dope. Got that figure mixed up with the ABS for Fowler, which is a bit bigger. Thanks for pointing that out. Apologies to all the Serbian Buddhists and Orthodox Vietnamese out there.
That said Frankie, do you think Dai has a hope? And how’s our good mate Ninos tracking on the Whetherill Park street?
I suspect Cabramatta & Campbelltown will be alp retained
When people are posting picks….”call of the board”……. can they please indicate
how certain they are……….I know most have
but there are a large number of possibles & probables out there
My tip for the election is 24 seats to labor and 5 independents confined to the Hunter and The Illawrra.
I put a late swing to ALP based upon sympathy vote for KK and her quality rendition of the Indigo Girls the closer I am to fine on the bus.
Variance between Centrebet and Sportsbet odds. Interesting to note Kenneally’s Heffron has gone from 5c to 9c in the dollar. It still remains at that. That would have to be a safe bet at a margin of 23.7%. Its greater than Robbos 22% margin.
Dovif predicting a Labor loss in Kogarah doesn’t tally with the latest Sportsbet odds for that seat.
Would a coalition win mean that the police will crack down on Nimbin?
From all media appearances:
[1. Who is the NSW Greens Leader?]
Shoebridge timesharing with Bob Brown. (Rhiannon on garden leave)
[2. What are the main issues they are running on?]
Part 3A and Coal Seam Gas.
[3. Where have they laid blows on the the Govt or the coalition?]
Marrickville, Balmain, also on Part 3A.
It’s a pity the Greens haven’t done a stronger ‘Stop the Tories’ campaign. I expect that will be in 2015 after the Tories have sold off power, water, schools and hospitals.
With the precise attacks by air and US missiles on Gadafi military assets would that not mean that western special service forces are and have been on the ground in Libya for some time.
If so would that not be a violation of the UN declaration ?
I have no knowledge of the situation unfolding or the politics just wondering.
Sorry.
Wrong place. OOPS !
Deconst 189
I must have missed something didn’t Barry OFarell effectively end Morris Iemmas leadership by blocking the sale of the states power assets when they were valued at many more billions today. So why would he turn around in the next four years and sell of the power assets as that makes no sense.
Secondly KKs people commissioned Boston Consulting Group (her husband Ben’s former employers)to look at a major economic rationalization and BCG have recommended significant land sales of school grounds and mergers.Therefore ALP more likely to sell off schools.
Makes no sense to sell off hospitals or water.
I think you need to look at O’Farrell’s background and Liberal faction position he has been always way out on the party’s left and a social small l liberal I think your confusing him with the Federal leader who a genuine right wing conservative. O’Farrell is much more like Bailleau except from a working man’s background and a committed multiculturalist hence three Muslim Lib Candidates, Vietnamese and heaps of others.
Nice attempted scare attempt btw.
eddie
still getting over the heartbreak
ps will post moi’s pedilictions tomorrow
🙁
Eddie – sorry for delay in saying thanks for your call of the card (and those who have followed) but have been dealing with leaks – ones caused by the 4 inches of rain in Sydney last night. Two matters for comment if you like – having spoken about Eric Willis, have you got some words about Max Willis, former LC president. I ate in his parliamentary dining room once. Any views about how my local member Gladys Berejiklian will go in government? Just to show how things changed she will win Willoughby by 30% plus when she was ultra close to losing to our Elvis loving mayor Pat O’Reilly in 2003.
192
The Coalition supported the Greens and ALP floor crossers in the Legislative Council only because is caused problems for the ALP internally and with the state budget plans. They did and do support power privatisation in principle and will finish it off in the highly likely event of their election.
Yep – even for NSW it was pretty cynical. Rodney Cavalier’s book gives the details.
Max Willis! I keep looking on You Tube in the hope that someone uploads the scene in the LC when he dined too well and fell out of the chair – he resigned the next day.
Ironically the council was debating a very rare motion to dismiss a judicial officer for dereliction of duty. Jack Lang always said the Council was a house of revue (sic).
eddieward @ 182
[That said Frankie, do you think Dai has a hope? And how’s our good mate Ninos tracking on the Whetherill Park street?]
While obviously a strong candidate, Dai Le couldn’t take the 2008 by-election to preferences, in the wake of Reba, so you wouldn’t think she’d fare any better in a general election. And while Labor are significantly more unpopular three years down the track, and the contest has a by-election quality to it in the sense it won’t change who forms government, the Labor machine, which apparently includes the full resources of the Fairfield Council, is an immovable object.
Ditto for Councillor Khoshaba in Smithfield.
OC\\\
mine host would have kiittens over the ahem lang footage
dovif @ 104
I doubt the Liberals will win in Monaro as they aren’t running a candidate.
As I posted in an earlier thread, there are many people in this seat who have moved here from Sydney or Canberra (and of course a hell of a lot who work in Canberra anyway) and are generally Labor voters who are far more unlikely to vote National than a Liberal over a popular local Labor MP, even at this election.
This is coming from my Canberra based source who thinks Whan will squeak it due to his workload, reputation, demographics (a number of Canberrans moved into nearby areas in the last 4 years), the donley vote and the National candidate who is not top shelf.
At the last election, the Greens in this seat got 10% which is not typical of a real rural seat. It is now more a semi-rural, dormitory seat. I think Whan will also need Green prefs and to save him, and I have heard he is working to arrange this “on the ground”.
As has been previously mentioned, the Independent will take votes off the Nationals than Labor due to his even more conservative policies.
So, for me, this will be a maverick seat with Whan holding on.