NSW election minus 10 days

On Monday, The Australian published further detail from last week’s Newspoll survey regarding election issues. This showed the Coalition best to handle every issue going, the narrowest lead being for climate change (32-25) and the widest for the economy (59-18). What stands out for me is that the issues which have gained most since 2007 on the question of whether respondents considered them “very important” 2007 – the economy, up from 60 per cent to 71 per cent, and public transport and roads, up from 56 per cent 66 per cent – are the very ones on which the Coalition holds the most commanding leads (59-18 and 54-19 respectively). The same would probably have applied for “cost of living”, which 73 per cent rate very important with the Coalition favoured 50-24, but this was not part of the mix in the 2007 poll.

Elsewhere:

• The local branch of the Greens has opted to direct preferences to Labor in Coogee, while elsewhere the Greens will be directing preferences to independents Mike Jackson in Wallsend and Gillian Sneddon in Swansea. The Liberals will direct preferences to John Tate in Newcastle, Greg Piper in Lake Macquarie, Shayne Connell in Wallsend and Barry Johnston in Charlestown. Johnston will in turn direct preferences to Liberal candidate Andrew Cornwell. According to the Newcastle Herald, Johnston, Cornwell and Labor member Matthew Morris are “said to be evenly matched in polling”.

• Market researchers purporting to be from Marrickville Council have reportedly been asking respondents if they were aware that the local mayor, Greens candidate Fiona Byrne, had “led a boycott against Israel on council recently”, and inviting them to consider whether they thought foreign policy was properly the council’s concern. The council says it has not conducted any such polling.

• Antony Green on the possible impact of former Leichhardt mayor Marie Sheehan’s independent candidacy in Balmain: “The Liberals could lead on the first preferences and, if they do, a split-up of preferences between Labor, Greens and independents could lead to a surprise Liberal victory.”

• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports that Labor strategists have “virtually written off Education Minister Verity Firth in Balmain, but still hold out hopes of saving Deputy Premier Carmel Tebbutt in Marrickville” – however, “On-the-ground Liberal sources suggest the opposite picture”. Salusinszky earlier reported that saving Tebbutt had become the number one priority of state Labor boss Sam Dastyari.

• Amos Aikman of The Australian notes Kristina Keneally was putting more effort than you might have thought earlier this week into Wyong, held on a margin of 6.9 per cent: “Perhaps buoyed by unexpected wins in the nearby federal seats of Dobell and Robertson last year, the party is hoping for a successful Hail Mary pass.”

• Pre-poll voting commenced on Monday.

• Recent additions to the election guide have focused on the western and south-western suburbs: Riverstone, Granville, Macquarie Fields, East Hills, Toongabbie, Smithfield, Fairfield, Blacktown, Bankstown, Mount Druitt, Liverpool and Auburn.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

123 comments on “NSW election minus 10 days”

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  1. @83

    Eddie, the hard right Croats still dominate the local Liberal branches in Penrith.

    The current MP managed to win his pre-selection in spite of them, thanks to a favorable central draw and the fact that he has some talent, unlike the bloke that Clarke put up against him.

    Great to be reminded of the Henry Lawson club and the great Peter Anderson. I used to play cricket with his son when I was about 12 years old, and he used to give me a lift to the games in his flash white LTD. Good fella.

  2. I’ve got a funny feeling that Labor will lose Cabramatta and go very close to losing Blacktown, yet conversely they might retain the less safe seats of Monaro, Granville and Toongabbie.

  3. Twelve Catholic Bishops including Pell of course put out a statement today urging Catholics not to vote Green.

    Nothing changes only the faces as my Mum would say!

    Police are investigating the Port Macquarie incident with speculation that the car’s sump plug was removed. Could get interesting!

  4. I have read up on the Basseling’s bus, someone damaged Basseling car by taking out its indicator lights? So that when Basseling’s bus want to turn left, he cannot indicate? I can think of about 5,000 things someone can do, that would be much funnier or dangerous then making someone not able to indicate.

    While it might be the work of some stupid kid. I would suggest we look at who might be struggling, who might need a game changer, who might want to create distraction against his oponent in the campaign

  5. [I have read up on the Basseling’s bus,]

    oh no you havent

    stop making up shite

    MTBW in the post above yours nailed it

    Someone removed the sump plug

    The bus has now been taken off the road

  11. Oakeshott County – I was just listening to local ABC discussing Port Macq and Basseling. Apparently Nationals have been distributing flyers saying that Basseling encouraged Rob Oakeshott to go with Labor and that Lisa Williams has distanced herself from the flyers.

    Comment by all was that it was hurting Williams. Have you any news on that.

  12. Ray Hadley on 2GB is doing his bit to help out Leslie Williams, and just alleged that Bessling fabricated the whole “bus sabotage story” to get a sympathy vote.
    An example of the blatant misinformation disseminated by the shockjocks.

  13. Evan – I posted on the NSW site this morning that local radio is reporting the Nationals are distributing flyers saying that Besseling was the person who told Oakeshott to go with Labor. National candidate says she is not involved. Well she would say that wouldn’t she.

  15. 1) I have traced the poll in PMCQ. It is in a new throwaway paper called “The Port Paper” which seems to have a heavy Nat bias. The poll was conducted by Strategic Marketing in Port (373 queried) and Oxley (Number not given)
    No surprises in Oxley: Stoner (nats) 64%, Lab 21%, Green 9% and Ind 6%. 2pp Nats 72% Lab 28%
    Under the heading “Port Voters want Change”:
    A very interesting device that suggests some push polling
    Respondents were initially asked to state their party preference before the names of candidates were mentioned:
    Lib-Nat 58%, Labor 11% Greens 8% “Others” 23% 2PP Lib/Lab 73/27%
    The Candidates names were then mentioned
    Williams 40%, Beeseling 34%, Alley (Labor) 14%, Meggett (Green) 4% 2pp Williams/Beeseling 50/50. This is about a 4.5% swing to Nats
    Some people would like to see this as a refderendum against RO (Hadley getting involved indicates that they are taking it seriously)- I think it will be very close and at the moment I would just favour Williams but I think such a result would be interpreted as continuing strong support for Oakeshott. The Nats are pouring a fortune into the electorate but they may be doing more harm than good with their negativity

    The quality of the paper can be indicated by the interview on page 12 with the leader of the opposition “Tony Abbort” – that is going straight to Mediawatch

    2) Williams did not distance herself from the negative ads – she was at a meet the candidates and had to ad lib – her response was that “every word is true”.

  16. I should add that the survey based its 2PP on the results of the 2008 by-election which is surprising as there was no Labor candidate. Williams then got 34%pv against Beeseling’s 36%. The other candidates were a Green, a Christian and 8 independents. The exhaustion rate was 12%

  18. [Twelve Catholic Bishops including Pell of course put out a statement today urging Catholics not to vote Green.]
    ROTFL! As if people contemplating voting Greens would be swayed by George Pell? That story might get the Greens quite a few votes 🙂

    Perhaps Bob Brown should warn people not to accept advice on morality from harbourers of serial child molesters. Does Pell have credibility on any topic other than catholic theology?

  21. You have to hand it to the ALP; they’re playing it as best as they can. It’s a bit like when the head gasket goes on the second car. Get the f*cker to a mechanic for as cheap as possible is the rule of the day. Then you have to make the decision whether or not to get the head machined , knowing the car will never run as well again, or cut your losses and put it on eBay (“Yeah mate, can you get to a servo at Marulan? I can meet you there.”)

    It’s about as good as they’ve got to leave people with the perception that, hell, O’Farrell is going to win like Kingston Town did over 2400 meters, so let’s just vote Labor anyway.

    It’s the dominant meme of everything they are doing. I think a lot of the Mordor like polling that’s doing the rounds is designed to effect just that outcome. I KNOW these people. If Luke Foley wasn’t running electoral campaigns he’d be regional manager for a mobile phone sales company. Can’t you just see him doing the script at Light’n’Sound in the Wagga Mall. “We can get you UNLIMITED numbers of these Nokias, buddy, and they will just walk off the shelves. You’re going to rake good coin on the accessory packages, I can put you on to the Apple guy”. The ‘Apple guy’ turns out to be Ricky Nixon’s ex-girlfriend, who went to a ‘sales conference’ at Byron last August.

    People who think the name Luke Foley is jogging something in their ecstasy jangled synapses are right. Luke was ‘correspondent’ for JJJ’s coverage of the Australian cricket team’s tour of the Caribbean in 1999. The Lunching Council must be something of a comedown after he watched Steve Waugh peel off a double century against the Windies from a floating banana chair at square leg in Antigua. Every daiquiri since must have tasted a bit pallid. He’d need this election to keep his heart beating. A good man in a crisis, but not necessarily a good man.

    There’s a good animal fable about that which I will tell you after we have a few drinks.

    Nice to see Sydney Water has been enhanced. While the citizens of NSW have had about as much enhancement as one person can stand and still live, Eric is pressing on regardless, even though his name is cleverly obscured on the ALP HTV. We can only hope that the REAL Eric Roozendaal is bound and gagged in a room in Macquarie University somewhere and all this time the forces of evil have been using a robotic double of this nice little Jewish boy to wreak mayhem on an 120 year old institution.

    Christ, the only thing worse than the Chicago-school wingnuts running the NSW Treasury now would be if we gave it to Foley’s Children of Albo cult. There’s a part of me that feels warm and relaxed when I think of them all f*cking off to Guyana and drinking Kool-Aid for Albo.

    Seriously, the best thing the old NCCer’s have going for them is the absolute morality and policy free vacuum that is the – sorry I have to pause and laugh here for a bit – Hard Left, sorry again, of the NSW ALP. Which appears to consist of about three-score inner west yuppies that have never done a days work in their lives. I’m sure as individuals they are all wonderful people whose probity is above question but, like the TWU and NUW losers out Penrith way, you wouldn’t leave them alone in a room with a toaster and a metal knife.

    It says something that there are people so dedicated to a cause that the sum of the whole is less than it’s constituent parts. Think Telstra, but without the utility oir sense of customer service.

    You want to know what b*stards these losers really are, ask Andrew Scott, Phil Howell, Ed Mason, Liz Higgins or Matt Hoysted (if they’re still alive or you can find them). They were f*cking right about these bludgers in 1986 to 89 and everything that has transpired in NSW and Australian politics ever since has vindicated them. You’d shoot them, but it’s illegal.

    Alright, the last bit is a bit strong, but at least you’d expect them to have the self reflection to realize that they are the problem, not the solution. Exhibit A: Ian MacDonald. Exhibit B: Frank Walker. Do I really need to drag Bob Debus into this?

    I got told to have a big cup of shut the fuck up about The Ferg today, so that’s on the money. And, if you’re reading this, when you leave messages on my phone, I’m not ignoring you, I work shiftwork. And don’t think that I’m not going to make something that’s been transmitted on a network that was paid for by my father’s generation and my grandfather’s generation a public document. And have some Nazi while you’re at it.

    The Sydney Water business proves why the Government Gazette is COMPULSORY reading for anyone who calls themselves a journalist. Unfortunately there’s a lot of people who call themselves journalist who have never read a government gazette. Yes, I know it’s largely dull, and yes, there are more exciting things happening at the Martin Place bar (as an aside, Simon Benson must be the only Canberra Press Gallery hack who can keep a finger on the pulse of Canberra from Martin Place, but then again, who’s keeping a pulse on Simon Benson?), but – fer feckin jaysus sake – if you don’t want to die like Brian Robins or Imre Saluzinsky, read the bloody Gazette. The Greens and the ASU obviously do. Between them they broke that.

    Liz Foschia and Mark Tobin from the pollbludgerly unfashionable ABC are the o;ly people who know what they’re talking about. And Antony Green, but for different reasons: the guy doesn’t live in the constant state of present tense that dominates media, he has a sense of history. Why is that galoot from Nine being fed, let alone paid.

    If ever there was an argument for noblesse oblige it is now. How sad is that. And to think there are some who think the Liberal Democratic future exists. If your Super is in equities and you can access it; cash out and buy tinned food. You’d think that having opposable thumbs would have us prepared for an energy shock, but I doubt it has. Meanwhile we have an election for the body that nominally runs electricity, the state govermnment, and look at what we’ve got. The nudist Baanstra running foir the Lunching Council is not as bad as the worst of them.

    I’ve also been asked for an update on the biopic on Ninos Khoshaba.

    The role of Joe Tripodi is to be played by Charlie Sheen, who is very excited by the project: “I’ve been doing a bit of method stuff to get inside the mind of Joe Tripodi, “ he told Entertainment Tonight. Sir Laurence Olivier was quoted as saying “My god, why can’t the man just act!”

    And Edde Obied tip for the TAB tomorrow? Sydney Race five, number one.

  22. Eddie, it might be worth reposting that one on the new thread. Also, I don’t allow the f word even with asterisks inserted, unless you’re quoting. But I do allow pretty much any swear word of lesser severity.

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