Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports the first carbon tax Newspoll has Labor receiving roughly the expected hit on voting intention, with a double dose for Julia Gillard personally. Labor’s vote has dived six points to 30 per cent, with the Coalition up four to 45 per cent and – intriguingly – the Greens up two to 15 per cent. The Coalition two-party lead of 54-46 compares with 50-50 a fortnight ago. An even bigger sting for Julia Gillard comes with a finding that Kevin Rudd leads her as best person to lead the ALP 44 per cent to 37 per cent, and a 23-point reversal in her net approval rating: approval down 11 points to 39 per cent, disapproval up 12 to 51 per cent. Funnily enough, these are exactly the same as the figures for Tony Abbott, who is respectively up one and up two. After a strong showing a fortnight ago, Gillard has lost eight points on preferred prime minister to 45 per cent and Abbott is up five to 36 per cent. For all that, a substantial 42 per cent profess themselves in favour of a price on carbon, with 53 per cent opposed – although the figures are respectively down five and up four on November. Full tables here.

UPDATE: James J points out in comments that this is Labor’s worst primary vote in Newspoll history. The previous record of 31 per cent came in August 1993, shortly after a Labor government broke a pre-election promise on tax. However, this was in an age when there was no Greens scooping up 15 per cent of the vote and feeding three-quarters of it back as preferences.

UPDATE 2: While I’m here, I’ll repost what I said about today’s Essential Research poll, which got buried a few posts back. The first Essential result taken almost entirely after the carbon tax announcement has the Coalition opening up a 53-47 lead. Considering Labor went from 51-49 ahead to 52-48 behind on the basis of last week’s polling, half of which constituted the current result, that’s slightly better than they might have feared. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 47 per cent, Labor is down one to 36 per cent and the Greens are steady on 10 per cent.

Further questions on the carbon tax aren’t great for Labor, but they’re perhaps at the higher end of market expectations with 35 per cent supporting the government’s announcement and 48 per cent opposed. Fifty-nine per cent agreed the Prime Minister had broken an election promise and should have waited until after the election, while 27 per cent chose the alternative response praising her for showing strong leadership on the issue. Nonetheless, 47 per cent support action on climate change as soon as possible, against only 24 per cent who believe it can wait a few years and 19 per cent who believe action is unnecessary (a figure you should keep in mind the next time someone tries to sell you talk radio as a barometer of public opinion). There is a question on who should and shouldn’t receive compensation, but I’d doubt most respondents were able to make much of it.

Tellingly, a question on Tony Abbott’s performance shows the electorate very evenly divided: 41 per cent are ready to praise him for keeping the government accountable but 43 per cent believe he is merely obstructionist, with Labor-voting and Coalition-voting respondents representing a mirror image of each other. Twenty-seven per cent believe independents and Greens holding the balance of power has been good for Australia against 41 per cent bad, but I have my doubts about the utility of this: partisans of both side would prefer that their own party be in majority government, so it would have been good to have seen how respondents felt about minority government in comparison with majority government by the party they oppose.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,781 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. @ Finnigans But they are “people” and “refugees” we have illegal immigrants. I know this because the Lberals say it all time and the media never corrects them.

    @Victoria next week. Knowing my son, he will be polite but will ask proper questions if given the chance.

  4. Is Laurie going to produce a piece of kryptonite as a prop?

    [LAURIEOAKES | 1 minute ago
    Nine Netwiork interview guest Sunday morning 8.35ish…Greg Combet]

  6. I’ve been rewatching Drop the Dead Donkey and I think I might be in serious danger of plagiarising whole concepts for our Poll Bludger sitcom.

    It’s scary how much of it resonates, 20-odd years later, on the other side of the world.

  9. That’s interesting – on the 7.30 site My Say linked to (sorry about scaring you with my spoof earlier btw) some has done a cut and paste of the spoof 7.30 line up that I posted yesterday.

    Well done, whoever did it, as it got a run and they never publish anything of mine.

  10. Josh Frydenberg told me he plays tennis with Don Farrell and apparently thinks he’s a top bloke.

    One of them is in the wrong party. Guess which one.

    Your prize is 24 hours of being strapped to a chair watching ABC News 24 …

  11. [adelaidegirl
    Posted Friday, March 11, 2011 at 4:15 pm | Permalink

    blue_green @4614 – me too. Please post any useful links for stirrers!]

    Hi Adelaide Girl. Joanne Nova and Australian Climate Madness are good ones and of course menzies house and stop gillards carbon tax facebook page.

    Good luck.

  15. STOP THE INDISCIPLINE

    Turnbull has been giving Abbott the finger. Minchin has given Abbott the finger. But they gave Abbott different fingers.

    Now Abbott reckons forget about the why of the finger, it is about whether the finger fits.

  16. [I agree on the perennial difficulties of getting the message out. But roll over and play dead?]
    The key words are the last four words in the sentence below. No-one is suggesting playing dead.
    [As I said earlier, nothing is going to stop them, and they’re on a hiding to nothing trying to win the propaganda war at this point in time.]

  17. [Turnbull has been giving Abbott the finger. Minchin has given Abbott the finger. But they gave Abbott different fingers.

    Now Abbott reckons forget about the why of the finger, it is about whether the finger fits.]
    The ultimate two fingered salute?

  19. b_g: there are some complete loonies on the latter.

    Their hatred of Julia Gillard knows no bounds. They hated her anyway, but this has really set them off; speaking in tongues and frothing at the mouth.

    It would be hilarious if it wasn’t so scary …

  22. If Frydenberg and O’Dwyer are the new generation of Libs, I’m not sure that I wouldn’t rather have the old polite ones.

  25. [have PVO on Sky and ABC95 ignored Turnbull undermining Abbott story?]

    Vic, what undermining? It was a love-in in a broad church.

  26. [4709 Gos
    Posted Friday, March 11, 2011 at 4:34 pm | Permalink
    That’s interesting – on the 7.30 site My Say linked to (sorry about scaring you with my spoof earlier btw) some has done a cut and paste of the spoof 7.30 line up ]

    do you mean on the complaints web page letter to ect on the abc web page.

    how will we know which one it is.

    i tired to copy and paste one the other night to read out to my oh,

    and the computer got stuck

  27. [Danny Lewis
    Posted Friday, March 11, 2011 at 4:40 pm | Permalink

    b_g: there are some complete loonies on the latter.

    Their hatred of Julia Gillard knows no bounds. They hated her anyway, but this has really set them off; speaking in tongues and frothing at the mouth.

    It would be hilarious if it wasn’t so scary …]

    Uh huh. And when the public sees them they run they other way.

  28. [Turnbull has been giving Abbott the finger. Minchin has given Abbott the finger. But they gave Abbott different fingers.

    Now Abbott reckons forget about the why of the finger, it is about whether the finger fits.]
    In most people’s cases one can find something good to say about them. In O’Dwyers case it is extremely difficult.

  30. Gary@4716

    The key words are the last four words in the sentence below. No-one is suggesting playing dead.

    As I said earlier, nothing is going to stop them, and they’re on a hiding to nothing trying to win the propaganda war at this point in time.

    As long as no-one is suggesting Gillard and her team shouldn’t get out there and ‘lead big’ on climate. The propaganda war can indeed be won ‘at this time’. There is no right time and wrong time to lead public opinion on climate action any more. Having made the big announcement it is certainly the right time now. THer eis plenty of new Garnaut material to run with.

  31. Having had a quick scan of the 7.30 site the overwhelmingly negative reaction is an eye opener. Fair play to the ABC (for once) for not censoring the board.

    As I haven’t watched for a while I was not aware that they had completely ignored the PM’s speech to congress . That is extraordinary. I would love to be able to check back on the coverage they provided when John Howard did the same thing.

  33. [As long as no-one is suggesting Gillard and her team shouldn’t get out there and ‘lead big’ on climate. The propaganda war can indeed be won ‘at this time’. There is no right time and wrong time to lead public opinion on climate action any more. Having made the big announcement it is certainly the right time now. THer eis plenty of new Garnaut material to run with.]
    Let’s agree to disagree. I’m not convinced of your argument that it should happen now, given the circumstances.

  36. [As long as no-one is suggesting Gillard and her team shouldn’t get out there and ‘lead big’ on climate.]
    I notice you haven’t included the other stake holders in this. Why?

  40. Lizzie: it is about the 2 sets of rules. One for the Coalition and one for everyone else.

    I doubt the MSM – ABC included – even know how to spell “accountability” these days.

  41. I think someone on this blog was collecting Abbott’s different positions on CC. It would make a thesis by now. Can’t think of a suitable title, tho.

  42. you should re llink to the 7.30
    i have never seen so many bad comments the good ones are so far between they must be friends.

    keep up guys we need to have the old one back
    now we could all comment and see if our comments are shown mine never have been.

  43. and as i was so poliltley told by the producer in an email, nothing is changing

    so looks like their audience will be just dear libs and even they may dislike the non issue storeis.

  45. would one of your articulate people write to one of the new directors of the abc and point our how bad the complaints are on the site.

  48. Gary@4736

    As long as no-one is suggesting Gillard and her team shouldn’t get out there and ‘lead big’ on climate.

    I notice you haven’t included the other stake holders in this. Why?

    There is only one PM.

  49. [Why is it OK for Abbott to flip-flop? Is he practising to be a fish?]

    Lizzie, only one person is allowed to flip flop. The one and the best 😆

    ?v=0

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