Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

The weekly Essential Research poll has the Coalition with a 51-49 two-party lead for the fourth week running. The Coalition primary vote is up a point to 45 per cent, with Labor steady on 38 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Respondents were also presented with a series of “party attributes&#148 to respond to, of which my favourite findings are that the Coalition is both more moderate and more extreme than Labor. The Liberals are thought to have a better team of leaders, understanding of the problems facing Australia, to be clearer about what they stand for and to be less inclined to make promises to win votes. However, they are also thought too close to big corporate and financial interests. Labor’s lead on “looks after the interests of working people” is narrower than one feels it ought to be. The two most emphatic responses were the 50 per cent who believed Labor would do anything to win votes and the 39 per cent who thought the Greens “extreme”.

Scepticism about climate change seems to have increased since the question was previously canvassed a year ago, with 45 per cent believing it to be happening and caused by human activity – down from 53 per cent – and 36 per cent believing “we are just witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate” (up from 34 per cent). Nonetheless, 61 per cent are willing to rate the issue as “important”, including majorities for each party support group. Labor are rated as best party to deal with the issue by 23 per cent, the Coalition by 29 per cent and the Greens on 19 per cent, representing little change on a year ago.

UPDATE: Roy Morgan has unexpectedly published results from its latest face-to-face poll on a Monday rather then the traditional Friday. These show Labor’s lead narrowing from 54-46 to 52.5-47.5, from primary votes of 40.5 per cent Labor (down half a point), 42 per cent Coalition (up two) and 12 per cent Greens (unchanged). This is Labor’s weakest result in a Morgan face-to-face poll since a week before the election, when their lead was 52-48. The poll was conducted on the weekends of November 20-21 and 27-28, from a sample of 1829.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

442 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 2 of 9
1 2 3 … 9

  1. [Now here is a country that really needs Wikileaks]

    People often wonder what to do about North Korea, but I’ve often wondered if a subversive propaganda war might not be more effective than a military assault.

    These days, it would be a simple matter to broadcast, in Korean, a steady stream of western programming — nothing expressly political — just fairly banal entertainment that shows that another way of living is possible. In between all that you could slip in ‘warts and all’ news broadcasts which because of that would subvert the idea that this was purely propaganda for the west.

    Of course you would include commentary about what was known about North Korea from the outside world, which, I daresay, most North Koreans would know little about. Certainly, that wikileaks leak about the Chiense being willing to consider Korean unification would be a bombshell. You could drop leaflets in tabloid format with stories and images from the west and pictures of the people determining the leadership of the country.

    This would annoy the hell out of the North Korean regime and yet there’s no obvious way they could block this, and this alone might prompt them to begin negotiating. By definition, there’s quite a small clique of people with an interest in keeping things as they are and if their belief that they could continue to rule in the old way were subverted by the presence of a new information channel independent of them, they might just begin to feel that the regime might crumpble leaving them exposed.

    It’s certainly worth a try.

  2. Did you listen to it, deblonay?

    I did, and it seemed alright to me. As I said earlier, he repeatedly stated the bleeding and sensibly obvious in response to repeated stupid questions.

    Is Peter Magher disappointed that Rudd didn’t apologise for permanently ruining all of our international relationships single-handedly, before ceremonially immolating himself?

  4. I’ve never understood this thing about Rudd speaking in tongues. I’ve always been perfectly able to understand him, and indeed I prefer the way he speaks to the yelling and sloganeering of Abbott. At least Rudd sounds intelligent, and doesn’t talk at us in 3 word slogans like we’re morons.

  8. confessions,

    I don’t know hwat they are looking at, but from the BOM radar, the city of Adelaide is about 15 minutes away from a downpour

  9. [Downer: When I look at the totality of it… Rudd is emphasising what we emphasised with the Americans… #auspol 44 minutes ago via TweetDeck]\\http://twitter.com/mfarnsworth

    No worries, Julie Bishop – your old mate Dolly’s emphasis was a big as Kev’s apparently.

  10. Welcome back all. While you were away:

    [Roy Morgan has unexpectedly published results from its latest face-to-face poll on a Monday rather then the traditional Friday. These show Labor’s lead narrowing from 54-46 to 52.5-47.5, from primary votes of 40.5 per cent Labor (down half a point), 42 per cent Coalition (up two) and 12 per cent Greens (unchanged). This is Labor’s weakest result in a Morgan face-to-face poll since a week before the election, when their lead was 52-48. The poll was conducted on the weekends of November 20-21 and 27-28, from a sample of 1829.]

  14. [ Rod Hagen
    Posted Monday, December 6, 2010 at 5:33 pm | Permalink
    I blame it on Gus and the Wiki lovers

    More likely to be down to either the Chinese or Poss’s piece on the public acceptance of Gay marriage!
    ]

    Or a certain poster who was banned by Bilbo yesterday for being a total twat 🙂

  16. Will promise to do anything to win votes LAB 50% COAL 36% Green22%

    This probably has something to do with Labor being seen to promise the Greens and Indies whatever they demand to hold on to govt.
    Not so much to win votes at election time maybe?

  17. [ Gusface
    Posted Monday, December 6, 2010 at 5:37 pm | Permalink
    sorry frank

    just testing our latest weapon

    the block frank from commenting device

    obviously needs a bit of work
    ]

    I think you need some reducation from Her Finns and Ron and GG – The Cult has fried your brains a tad.

  18. Kevin Rudd exposes Wikileaks fraudulent claims of serving anyone but themselves

    “MR RUDD:
    I don’t believe anyone has profited from what has happened with the unauthorised release of classified information.

    You see diplomacy is necessary. Diplomacy is done in secret because diplomacy seeks to solve problems for which there are no other public solutions. Therefore what is at stake here is the essence of how we deal with international problems; the machinery through which we deal with international problems – the mechanism through which we deal with international problems, in the language in which we deal with international problems.

    And when this is all put into the public domain, it’s a problem for all of us to combine our efforts to deal with some of our fundamental challenges.

    Therefore we in Australia condemn the release of this material. It helps nobody.”

  19. did you see the tweet earlier

    [vexnews @StGusface Love the concept of encouraging leaks. Don’t like the endangering of ppl’s lives part of Wikileaks. ]

    another one bites the dust

  20. [These days, it would be a simple matter to broadcast, in Korean, a steady stream of western programming — nothing expressly political — just fairly banal entertainment that shows that another way of living is possible. ]

    THey’d probably respond by simply banning radio, Fran.

  21. It helps nobody – sure someone here was saying that was the greatness of it – someone without any responsibility at all hurting us all – apparently if you are on the right drugs that makes for better govt.

  22. Hi Ron
    I don’t have a strong opinion one way or the other on wikileaks but McClelland made a point today with wtte about how whistleblower types mentioned in wikileaks could now have their lives put at risk.
    All these hypocritical jurno types squeal blue murder about revealing their sources/whistleblowers but it seems one rule for some of them and another for anyone else
    Wangkers

  23. A profile piece on Michael Kirby, former High Court judge, in today’s Age. He answers questions from the public in the comments section. One of his responses is to the question of why he didn’t go into politics.

    When I set out on life’s journey I anticipated that I would go into politics. But then I looked at Ted Heath.

    I just would not have been willing to forego a loving relationship. And that was absolutely required in those days. By the time things got a bit better I was over the hill. But even today I am not sure that in Australia and [sic] openly gay man would reach his full potential in either of the main political groupings.

  24. [ Gusface
    Posted Monday, December 6, 2010 at 5:43 pm | Permalink
    did you see the tweet earlier

    vexnews @StGusface Love the concept of encouraging leaks. Don’t like the endangering of ppl’s lives part of Wikileaks.

    another one bites the dust
    ]

    Vindicated 🙂

    Admit it – the wikilovers are on the losing side.

  27. G’day Vera

    “but McClelland made a point today with wtte about how whistleblower types mentioned in wikileaks could now have their lives put at risk.”

    pretty power full arguement against iresponsible Wikileakers from our own oz A-G !

    BUT a true FA expert Kev , he has condemned them !! ,
    see my #68

    whereas FA non xperts defending wikileaks , well you no where you put non experts 🙂

  28. [ Gusface
    Posted Monday, December 6, 2010 at 5:54 pm | Permalink
    what when VEX supports wiki

    and quotes it extensively

    frank you and chemical ali would have made a great comedy act

    ]

    You forgot this little tidbit in your love in:

    [Don’t like the endangering of ppl’s lives part of Wikileaks. ]

    Stick to male proctology disguised as Rugby 🙂

  31. [@vexnews wikileaks deny that- so far no direct deaths have been attributed to wikileaks #wikileaks ]

    frank

    its ok to admit you were and are wrong

    you quoted vex yesterday as being careful, yet they and many otheres are publishing the wikileaks

    forget the chemical ali double act

    you shine alone

  32. Recent coverage of Wikileaks trending more favourable.

    * BBC: Pursuit of Wikileaks founder ‘political’
    * The Times (London): Backlash as Amazon pulls WikiLeaks server
    * San Jose Mercury News: Why we should applaud Wikileaks
    * The Atlantic: Must-Read: NYT-Wikileaks on China and Google
    * Vancover Sun: Wikileaks an indictment of diplomacy

  33. [It helps nobody – sure someone here was saying that was the greatness of it – someone without any responsibility at all hurting us all – apparently if you are on the right drugs that makes for better govt.]

    Way too simple answer to a very difficult question, WeWantPaul.

    Let’s face it.

    Governments by and large reckon secrecy is a really good thing because it suits the personal ends of those people who compose them. Makes it way easier to hide the dirty washing.

    Opposition parties (until they win government) by and large reckon that secrecy is a really bad thing, because it makes it way too easy for Governments to hide things that Oppositions could use against them. Makes them even harder to unseat.

    Most regular people reckon that secrecy is something that should be kept to the absolute minimum necessary (makes it even harder to work out whether to vote for Bib or Bub), but there are times when it is probably actually necessary to protect one thing or another that might conceivably be of some value other than misleading them.

    Unfortunately, from the “regular people” perspective, it is impossible to decide whether particular bits of secrecy fit the first category or the second unless they actually have the information in front of them, which would rather defeat the purpose if it was one of those rare issues where it would really be better not to know.

    Much of it , of course, ultimately comes down to trust, but that is a commodity which, often for good reasons, is in scant supply in the modern world.

  35. [ WeWantPaul
    Posted Monday, December 6, 2010 at 6:04 pm | Permalink
    With Ron and others so right how did u end up wrong Frank?
    ]

    Gus has crossed to the dark side and is all but a fully fledged Greens Cultist.

  38. I take what you say rod and you are right wikileaks does make it easy to shoot – the question and I think it was discussed last night – is who gets to decide – it is so obvious that even someone as paranoid about govt secrecy should see that having an organization responsible to noone can only be ‘bad for everyone’. That is my point. Wiki leaks just makes it look simple for is.

  40. FEDERAL Attorney-General Robert McClelland

    “The release of this information could prejudice the SAFETY of people referred to in the documentation and, indeed, could be damaging to the national security interests of the United States and its allies including Australia,”

    so BS safety claims by defenders of th disreputable Wikileaks site can be also ignored

  41. Apologies to all for the break in transmission.

    I finally got the Turnbull Rainmaker to work (as you will have noticed by the cricket) but it sent out a huge electro-magnetic pulse which took out PB as that was on in the background.

  42. [Kevin Rudd exposes Wikileaks fraudulent claims of serving anyone but themselves]

    Very mild stuff from Rudd.

    You would expect an unequivocal condemnation from serving ministers. Though not going to degree that Gillard and McClelland went in knee-jerk a priori finding there to be a crime Assange is a priori guilty of.

    Rudd is either aware of the dangers of attacking Wikkileaks due to its public popularity or, more likely, is aware of the presence of Andrew Wilkie who would have a much more emotional connection to the issue. possibly he accepts leaks as a part of democracy.

    I do recall he relied on leaks during his election campaign.

  43. Also I don’t think we have to trust our govt – there are numerous legitimate means for questioning and review. But at the end of the day you either believe in your govt or you don’t. If you don’t then I guess you might believe wikileaks is preferable to the rule of law – I don’t.

  44. [The release of this information could prejudice the SAFETY of people referred to in the documentation and, indeed, could be damaging to the national security interests of the United States and its allies including Australia,”]

    This of course is standard BS that I and others addressed early on. But I think he has learned a little bit by adding the word ‘could’ given the nature and level of the leaks, their redaction and their often gossipy nature.

    McClelland’s first response was heading down the path of corrupting the office of the AFP and a conspiracy to pervert the course of justice something I believe a solicitors letter the other day alluded to.

  45. [The release of this information COULD prejudice the safety of people referred to in the documentation and, indeed, COULD be damaging to the national security interests of the United States and its allies including Australia,”]

    if wishes were fishes, we would all be at sea

  46. Ron

    That is the same argument Nixon made about not releasing the Watergate and Pentagon Papers stuff.

    Every government says that when it tries to stop a leak. Unless they are the source of the leak.

    The main risk they want to stop is to politician’s futures.

  49. [But at the end of the day you either believe in your govt or you don’t.]

    We just had a decade of Bush and Howard. Nobody in the end believed them, but we had precious little hard evidence to attack them on, fear of these govts made leaking a very dangerous exercise. This atmosphere we should extinguish so that when there are important thinks a foot fear doesn’t stop a leaker.

    I believe if we were still under the Howard and Bush regimes peoples attitudes to this issue would be different. Govts are not always benign.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 2 of 9
1 2 3 … 9