Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

The latest Essential Research survey is out, but they’ve sent it as a Word document rather than a PDF and for some reason WordPress won’t let me upload it (UPDATE: The good people at Essential have sent through a PDF). It has the Coalition maintaining its 51-49 lead for a third week running, though down a point on the primary vote to 44 per cent with Labor steady on 38 per cent and the Greens up one to 11 per cent. Other questions relate to gay marriage, which 50 per cent support but only 37 per cent consider important, and the National Broadband Network, with 69 per cent agreeing it is important that it be built.

Legal matters:

• The New South Wales government last week passed significant campaign finance reforms through parliament with the support of the Greens in the upper house, including several measures new to Australian practice which could set trends for the federal and other parliaments. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian described the bill, no doubt correctly, as “an intriguing mix of progressive public policy and political rat cunning”. To deal with its major features in turn:

Spending caps. Salusinszky’s “rat cunning” lies in the government’s decision to impose limits on electoral communication expenditure just as corporate donors fall over themselves to curry favour with a soon-to-be-victorious Coalition. More predictably and still more contentiously, the bill defines trade unions as third parties whose campaigning will not be affected by caps on party spending, even if they are affiliated with Labor (Barry O’Farrell has peddled legal advice claiming this to be unconstitutional), and treats the Coalition as a single party. Party spending in the six months up to an election will be limited to $9.3 million centrally and $100,000, amounting to another $9.3 million given there are 93 electorates. It should be noted that “electoral communication expenditure” excludes such expensive party operations as polling and other research, and there is a view abroad that this means it is not as restrictive as it should be.

Donation caps. Apart from the largely symbolic $50,000 cap on donations from the gaming industry in Victoria, these have previously been unknown in Australia. The legislation caps donations at $5000 per financial year to parties, not counting party subscriptions of up to $2000, or $2000 a year to candidates or elected members. Furthermore, donations have been banned altogether from the alcohol and gambling sectors (together with the tobacco industry at the suggestion of the Greens), which have done so much to fill NSW Labor’s coffers over the years. This move is particularly interesting in light of recent retirement announcements by Paul Gibson and Joe Tripodi, who are renowned for having built their influence as conduits for such funding. This will apply not only to hotels and the Australian Hotels Association, but also to Coles and Woolworths owing to their liquor retailing activities. However, a late agreement between Labor and the Greens saw the exemption of non-profit registered clubs.

Public funding. The parties have compensated themselves for donations caps with what will amount to a hefty increase in public funding, under new arrangements that rupture the traditional link between votes cast and funding received. Parties that score more than 4 per cent of the vote will instead be reimbursed for their electoral communication expenditure to a maximum of a bit under $10 million. Parties or candidates only running in the Council have been treated more generously at the insistence of the Greens – constitutional expert Anne Twomey says this might create legal problems as one type of political entity will be favoured over another, though George Williams says this is “arguable”.

Further north:

• AAP reports Queensland Opposition Leader John-Paul Langbroek has committed to sweeping electoral reforms if elected to government, including truth-in-advertising laws, campaign spending caps, electronic voting and a referendum on fixed terms if elected to government. In contrast to the spending cap just introduced in New South Wales, Langbroek proposes that campaign spending by (presumably Labor-affiliated) unions would count as part of Labor expenditure. In addition to these largely laudable measures, Langbroek also proposes to require that voters provide photo identification at the polling booth, citing spurious concerns about voting fraud to justify an effective restriction on the franchise to his own party’s electoral advantage.

• Jeremy Pierce of the Courier-Mail reports that a Gold Coast couple is challenging a fine for failure to vote in last year’s state election on the grounds that they did not know the election was on, having “never received one bit of information about it”. University of Queensland Law School academic Graeme Orr’s newly published The Law of Politics: Elections, parties and Money in Australia (available now from Federation Press) relates a number of unsuccessful challenges against fines brought by voters on the basis that they lacked a genuine preference between the candidates on offer, but nothing of this kind. UPDATE: Graeme Orr writes in comments: “There is case law rejecting a defense of ‘I had no information about the candidates’. They might win by arguing the general criminal law defense of honest mistake of fact.”

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,251 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  3. [In many traditional idigenous communities I believe there are quite a few men with “many wives”.]

    And I suspect in every community, there as those men who have many wives, just not their own.

  4. [In many traditional idigenous communities I believe there are quite a few men with “many wives”.]

    Which would work out better. A husband with three wives or a wife with three husbands.

    I’ve got a couple of thoughts on the matter, but they probably aren’t suitable to outline here! 😉

  5. Centre

    [nonesense jen,

    I’ll do Diogs slowly!]

    In other words, you have lost the argument and are going to run away and hide.

  9. Just saw some of Abbott earlier in parliament ranting and raving – Was Phoney sober at the time? Or was he wearing his budgy smugglers a little too tight? 😆
    Surely the smarter heads in the Liberal Party are embarrassed by Abbott’s behaviour?

  10. [Audio backs tweets – Julie Posetti case]

    Doesn’t look so good for Mitchell & his backers at the Oz now. Still it was a good try-on and down with their usual standards.

    I bet Grog is having a quiet chuckle! 😉

  11. In the debate about people of the same sex marrying each other, marriage is being treated as an institution based on partnerships of male and female for emotional and social reasons. That is quite modern. Those reasons are being projected backwards into our history, along with our modern concept of childhood.

    Marriage was (and to a great extent still is) a product of the economic system.

    Marriage was primarily concerned with regulating the property and inheritance rights of the property holders, i.e. the upper classes of society. The lower classes certainly did copy this, for a man could always have one possession if no other – a wife. The Church, also, was instrumental in using marriage as a way to break up pagan concepts of male/female relationships. These included practices such as women choosing fancied mates at yearly festivals to father each of their children, and children being the asset and responsibiity of the community.

    In our history, a woman was part of the goods and chattels of a man, firstly of the father (and if he was deceased a brother or the closest male relative, or the King) whose duty it was to deliver her to the wedding ceremony a virgin, thus ensuring she would bear none other than her husband’s children.

    Posessing a wife, the husband’s duty was to ensure she bore no other children but his, and these children became his property. This ensured the man’s wealth was passed only to his bloodline.

    Childhood as we know it did not exist for centuries. Children were little adults and only their physical abilities restricted their work. From memory, I believe the Victorian era saw the invention of childhood, at least for the middle and upper classes, possibly influenced by the writings of French philosphers.

    I believe there is no moral authority in asserting marriage existed primarily for the public declaration of an emotional relationship between a man and a woman, and for the welfare of children. It existed for economic reasons and any benefits or harm that the people involved experienced was simply a by-product.

    Transforming marriage in its legal and social forms from its historical role to an institution matching the values Australians hold in the 21st century will be an interesting change to watch.

    Maybe in the fullness of time, we will go full circle and end up back at our pagan beginnings. 😆

  12. [Which would work out better. A husband with three wives or a wife with three husbands.]

    Good question. In the first case the husband could watch the Ashes in peace while the wives chatted amongst themselves. In the second case, each husband would have two mates with whom to watch the Ashes.

  13. Just watched Brumby and the thought struck me that both he and Kev left office emphasising their achievements. Was there something wrong in telling the mob about it earlier. How stupid is that if Brumby ran a negative campaign.

    Brumby’s list was so impressive but 11 years is still a long time for most people.

  14. [I am sad that Brumby and his team are out. They were a very competent govt.]

    This highlights the difference between perception and reality — it is also what caused the hung parliament federally.

    Federal Labor was also very competent … but the perception became tainted.

  16. [So that wedding I saw on the weekend wasn’t real?]

    It makes no sense to me either. They announced the marriage bans prior to the wedding but still went ahead with it.

  17. Victoria
    [You cannot be Italian if not born or reside there. Italy does not even know you exist.
    Yes, it is interesting how people define themselves.]
    Well, sort of! My father is Greek Cypriot, mother blue eyed, blond haired stock back to several convicts/migrant Jordy father.
    I was born here, consider myself an Australian, but, if I go to Cyprus, legally & culturally I am considered a Greek Cypriot. My Greek relatives like to tell me I am a Greek first & Aussie second. I don’t look Greek & many are surprised to find out that I have Greek genes. In Cyprus, my children will be considered Greeks.
    Greeks don’t care how diluted your blood. Greek is Greek.
    For my relatives this reflects their attitude to a tee when the father stated in My Big Fat Greek Wedding there are two kinds of people.
    Greeks & those who want to be Greeks. 😆

  19. [How stupid is that if Brumby ran a negative campaign.]

    I agree with you, BH and I am not having a go at you here but I can’t help but feel if he ran a positive campaign, this place would be full of people whinging that he isn’t “going for Baillieu’s jugular”

  20. [Essential isn’t showing us anything we didn’t really expect, I suppose.

    If, as was the case early on, more Labor voters were registered for the poll, the figures on 2PP would probably be reversed.

    If I am reading the situation correctly, now there are probably more conservative voters registered at Essential. I mean, the Young Libs could not and would not allow any polling organisation favour the ALP, could they?]

    jenauthor – I’ve been wondering if that has happened. Essential was a bit too Labor orientated for a long time but lately looks as tho a lot of new people have enrolled to join the poll.

  24. [To Speak of PebblesPosted Monday, November 29, 2010 at 5:52 pm | PermalinkHow stupid is that if Brumby ran a negative campaign.
    I agree with you, BH and I am not having a go at you here but I can’t help but feel if he ran a positive campaign, this place would be full of people whinging that he isn’t “going for Baillieu’s jugular”
    ]

    That’s the problem – trying to find the right balance.

    Noticed how Abbott & the Libs went for the Jungular – they almost won office.

    Yet if Labor does it it’s “bad”.

  25. [ I thought that marriage bans existed already.

    So that wedding I saw on the weekend wasn’t real?]

    Banns — the official notification of the intention to marry (in the UK — not sure elsewhere)

  26. [this place would be full of people whinging that he isn’t “going for Baillieu’s jugular”]
    You are probably right TSOP, but negative campaigns seem to be the thing at the moment. I hark back to my (ongoing) criticism of the Federal Govt, in that the ALP are not selling their message well enough (albiet the Feds are getting better, veeeery slowly). From the distance of Qld, the Vic election campaign did seem rather odd, but I am sure the Qld one will be in the realms of bizarre. NSW is well and truly a lost cause – bye bye!!

  27. [jenauthorPosted Monday, November 29, 2010 at 5:57 pm | Permalink I thought that marriage bans existed already.
    So that wedding I saw on the weekend wasn’t real?
    Banns — the official notification of the intention to marry (in the UK — not sure elsewhere)
    ]

    In the Catholic Church the Banns have to be published in the Church Newsletter at least 3 times before the date.

  28. Scarpat
    [so who does the wife talk to? so why did God create the telephone?]
    I believe there is a body of research to back you up on that one.

  31. [ each husband would have two mates with whom to watch the Ashes.

    So who does the wife talk to?]

    If she’s like me, she’d boot them all out so she could watch the Ashes!

  32. [Ban marriage, that’s the best way to equalise for everyone.]

    MarilynS – you might have a point there. Would save heaps of trouble if everyone just became ‘unionised’ instead. I know people who have been together for over 50 years and never married and they are as happy as we are. They are churchgoers, we are not. Who says the piece of paper is necessary.

    Marriage as we know it is a relatively new institution for the population as a whole. It was more or less necessary within the aristocracy to perpetuate succession but the general hoi polloi didn’t take to it with gusto until the 1800s I think.

  33. [If she’s like me, she’d boot them all out so she could watch the Ashes!]
    My OH doesn’t watch the cricket, she just LOVES listening to Kerry. She doesn’t care what’s happening, she just wants to hear that laugh and the cheeky comment. 🙂

  35. Settle Diogs. I’m back.

    Why would anybody want to ban people who have testicular cancer or cervical cancer from getting married?

    So you are saying that because of a situation where a man and a women are unable to have a child because of a physical problem, gays should be allowed to get married, ALTHOUGH it is a physical impossibility for them to have children?

    I think the basis of your argument is flawed?

  37. [KJBar RT @Lateline It is the last week of Lateline for the year. Tonight: Former Prime Minister, John Howard ABC1 1025pm]

    So we’re going to get headlines for the rest of the week from Howard are we? One to miss.

  39. [Has Brumby said whether he’ll stay on as leader, retire, go to backbench?]
    From The Age, confessions…..
    [He made no mention of plans for his own future.]

  40. [So we’re going to get headlines for the rest of the week from Howard are we? One to miss.]
    He’s also peddling his book on Tony Delroy’s sleepy time.

  41. I certainly won’t be watching Lateline.

    When will this man do the right think and crawl into a hole somewhere and disappear.

    Retire already!!!

  42. [On gay marriage: it is blatant discrimination not to allow gay couples to have the same rights as hetero couples, including being married in the same way heteros can get married.]

    Rightly so. Has anybody else heard how gay marriage is going in Canada? I heard recently that there was a bit of flack about it start with but that has died down and nobody is worried by it now.

  43. [Has Brumby said whether he’ll stay on as leader, retire, go to backbench?]
    Well I hope he goes to the backbench for 6 months before resigning from parliament. If he resigns immediately then Labor could lose the seat. It happened after Kennett resigned.

  44. [Rightly so. Has anybody else heard how gay marriage is going in Canada? I heard recently that there was a bit of flack about it start with but that has died down and nobody is worried by it now.]

    They are going into winter up there now. Nobody makes love up there for six months. Everybody hibernates.

  47. Gawd!
    Gay marriage?
    Sorry folks but marriage is becoming so irrelevant these days that I just don’t get the magnitude of importance placed on this issue.

  50. [I agree with you, BH and I am not having a go at you here but I can’t help but feel if he ran a positive campaign, this place would be full of people whinging that he isn’t “going for Baillieu’s jugular”]

    TSOP – I’m over that negative campaigning. Brumby was terrific the way he just stood and talked about Labor’s achievements. How could anybody resist him in that mode. He lost because it was time and that’s a bit sad but a fact of life in State politics over the past 15-20 years.

    I don’t believe Abbott’s negative ads were the reason Labor lost seats federally. So many people I spoke to after the poll said they would like to have had more positives from Labor. Go for the ‘jugular’ in a different way. Forceful, emphatic, decisive policy talk with an occasional ‘put Abbott back in his box’ quip.
    \
    BTW – I think Turnbull said on Agenda that Abbott believes there should be a carbon price, market based but it’s all to do with how you get there. I was busy so only half listening but that got my ears open. Did anybody else hear that.

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