Victorian election: photo finishes

BENTLEIGH (Margin: 6.20%)

ALP LIB Swing 2006 votes
Ordinary 12,650 50.11% 12,595 49.89% 7.12% 27,106
Postal 1,491 45.28% 1,802 54.72% 4.45% 2,785
Early 1,857 47.04% 2,091 52.96% 3.25% 2,223
Provisional 109 60.22% 72 39.78% 20.73% 21
Absent 1,062 50.26% 1,051 49.74% 7.68% 1,643
TOTAL 17,169 49.36% 17,611 50.64% 6.84% 33,778

ELTHAM (Margin: 6.41%)

ALP LIB Swing 2006 votes
Ordinary 12,382 50.83% 11,980 49.17% 5.94% 27,530
Postal 1,262 46.59% 1,447 53.41% 2.87% 2,497
Early 3,209 50.45% 3,152 49.55% 6.01% 3,266
Provisional 96 51.89% 89 48.11% 14.78% 6
Absent 1,234 56.68% 943 43.32% 4.05% 1,775
TOTAL 18,183 50.80% 17,611 49.20% 5.61% 35,074

BALLARAT EAST (Margin: 6.81%)

ALP LIB Swing 2006 votes
Ordinary 13,288 51.49% 12,521 48.51% 5.35% 26,866
Postal 1,331 48.84% 1,394 51.16% 3.23% 2,026
Early 2,315 48.55% 2,453 51.45% 5.28% 2,268
Provisional 158 54.30% 133 45.70% 2.51% 0
Absent 1,576 57.94% 1,144 42.06% 5.88% 2,236
TOTAL 18,668 51.41% 17,645 48.59% 5.40% 33,396

MACEDON (Margin: 8.17%)

ALP LIB Swing 2006 votes
Ordinary 15,671 51.21% 14,930 48.79% 7.48% 28,429
Postal 1,505 48.44% 1,602 51.56% 6.47% 2,455
Early 3,351 50.04% 3,346 49.96% 2.43% 6,245
Provisional 139 62.61% 83 37.39% -12.61% 16
Absent 1,315 57.73% 963 42.27% 3.27% 1,910
TOTAL 21,981 51.23% 20,924 48.77% 6.94% 39,055


Eastern Metro 2 3
Northern Metro 2 (-1) 2 (+1) 1
South-Eastern Metro 3 2
Southern Metro 1 (-1) 3 (+1) 1
Western Metro 2 (-1) 2 (+1) 1
Eastern Victoria 2 2 1
Northern Victoria 2 2 1
Western Victoria 2 2 1 (+1) 0 (-1)
TOTAL 16 18 3 3 0 0

Tuesday, December 14

The button was pushed today on the count for the Legislative Council, securing the Coalition its 21 seats out of 40 and wrapping up the election count as a whole. Key to the Coalition triumph was Liberal candidate Craig Ondarchie’s victory in Northern Metropolitan from the second position on his party’s ticket, producing a result of two Labor, two Liberal and one Greens. His win came at the expense of Stephen Mayne, who in the event finished fairly solidly behind the second Greens candidate (2.6 per cent to 1.6 per cent) at a point where he had hoped to stay in contention by absorbing her preferences, and the Sex Party, who with 7.4 per cent failed to stay ahead of third Labor candidate Nathan Murphy on 9.1 per cent at the second last count. At that point the second Ondarchie was far enough ahead of Murphy that there was no prospect of preferences closing the gap, with the former sneaking over a quota on preferences from Mayne. In Western Metropolitan, below-the-line votes made the difference by heavily favouring the Greens – largely because below-the-lines for right-wing minor parties who had put Labor ahead of the Greens on their preference ticket tended to exhaust. The rate of exhaustion was such that Colleen Hartland won election with slightly under a quota, finishing on 16.6 per cent to Labor candidate Bob Smith on 16.2 per cent.

Saturday, December 11

As you may have noticed I’ve been less than vigilant in following the count, but those with an interest will be aware that Stephen Mayne continued to fade in late counting in terms that will almost certainly deliver the final Northern Metropolitan seat to the Liberals, securing the Coalition their upper house majority. The only remaining point of curiosity is whether Colleen Hartland of the Greens can secure re-election in Western Metropolitan, thereby achieving a status quo result for a party that had hoped for so much better. Antony Green reports all will be revealed when the button is finally pushed on Tuesday. Hopefully there will be no repeat of the 2006 error in which the Democratic Labor Party was wrongly credited with a second seat.

Monday, December 6

Stopped paying attention there for a while after the VEC started re-checking and took their existing results offline. Antony Green offers a thorough update, noting that recounting in Northern Metropolitan is proceeding slowly due to intensive scrutineering of the result that could deliver the Coalition an upper house majority. In Western Metropolitan, the tide seems to be favouring the Greens’ Colleen Hartland, who might yet retain her seat at the expense of Labor’s number three. UPDATE: Kevin Bonham in comments still rates her the underdog.

Wednesday, December 1

Stephen Mayne has discussed his prospects at length in his email newsletter, noting he has two hurdles to clear: first to stay ahead of the Greens at what appears as count 8 in the ABC’s projection, where he is currently on 1.54 per cent to the Greens’ 1.22 per cent, and then for the below-the-line count to not upset his applecart by putting him behind Liberal and Labor at the second last count. Mayne rates himself only a 50-50 chance of clearing the first hurdle as he expects the Greens to surge as absent votes are added. I’m not sure what was added today, but the addition has seen the Greens lose ground – possibly too much for Mayne, as Kevin Bonham argues in comments, because it will mean fewer of their preferences for him if he can stay ahead. Bonham reckons Mayne will need to significantly outperform Labor in preferences from the 3170 below-the-line votes which are recorded as going to him on the ABC projection, which treats all votes as above-the-lines. Bonham, who has learned a thing or two about preference behaviour from analysis of Hare-Clark elections in his home jurisdiction of Tasmania, reckons this unlikely, and that the most probable result would indeed be a twenty-first seat for the Coalition.

In the lower house, addition of absent and other votes have seen Labor pull further ahead in Eltham and Ballarat East, to 546 and 510 votes respectively, which puts these seats and the final result beyond doubt: the Liberals have won 35 seats and the Nationals 10, with Labor on 43. I will continue updating my tables as new figures come in, but I won’t be offering any further commentary on the lower house unless something unusually interesting happens.

Tuesday, November 30

Long past time I had something to say about the upper house, with the Coalition on the precipice of majorities in both houses. The Liberals have gained a seat from Labor in Southern Metropolitan and the Nationals have gained the DLP’s seat in Western Victoria. They also look likely to win seats from the Greens in Western Metropolitan and to hold off a challenge from the Country Alliance in Northern Victoria, where their second seat had been under threat. That puts the Coalition on 18 seats out of 40 with a likely extra two to achieve a blocking majority, and the chance of getting over the line for an absolute majority of 21. The decisive factor in Northern Metropolitan will be the second last count, at which the Labor number three, Liberal number two and Stephen Mayne appear to be at almost level pegging. Mayne will win the seat if he finishes ahead of either or both, and the current ABC projection has him finishing ahead of Labor after soaking up the Greens’ surplus and an eclectic range of preferences from the Sex Party, DLP and Family First. Should he finish behind the seat will almost certainly go to the Liberals, although Labor remain at least a mathematical possibility.

In continuing lower counting, Labor’s lead has more than doubled in Ballarat East, from 166 to 343, with the addition of 657 more postals and the first 766 absents. It was the latter which made the difference, breaking 60-40 their way – not unpredictably given that most would be sourced from town voters who cast their ballots in Ballarat West. Eltham too has become slightly firmer for Labor with 795 more pre-polls gaining them a handy 53 votes, but losses on rechecking have pared back the overall improvement in their lead, which goes from 245 to 267. Bentleigh and Macedon have drifted out of the doubtful column. Rechecking and a highly unfavourable batch of 819 absent votes has further increased the Liberal lead in Bentleigh from 460 to 559. In Macedon, the addition of 419 postal votes has cut Labor’s lead from 498 to 419, but it’s probably too little too late.

Monday, November 29

9pm. Another 605 postals in Bentleigh have broken 321-284 the Liberals’ way, increasing their lead from 423 to 460. In Eltham the addition of 5730 pre-polls and 600 more postals has increased Labor’s lead from 225 to 245. I’m not sure on what basis Labor sources quoted in the ABC yesterday were expecting to lose this seat – I would rate them better than even. Another 416 postal votes have been added in Ballarat East and have broken perfectly evenly, with Labor continuing to lead by 166.

4.30pm. Labor has had a disappointing result from 2268 pre-polls in Ballarat East which have cut their lead from 388 to 166. The addition of 5111 pre-polls from Macedon has also cut their lead from 719 to 498. However, absent votes remain to be added, and in both cases they favoured Labor heavily in 2006.

Sunday, November 28

11pm. Bob Katter’s Hat in comments relates that according to an ABC report, “Labor sources expect to lose Eltham but are ‘hopeful’ on Macedon”.

6.41pm. If there are the same number of absent votes as last time, and if anything there are likely to be fewer, they would need to defy every trend going by swinging to Labor by 5 per cent to overturn the Liberals’ lead.

6.34pm. The VEC site has now updated, and it has the Liberal lead at 15,667 to 15,244. The Herald-Sun’s assertion that only “some postal votes” remain to be counted is at best imprecise, as no absent votes have been added – and there were 1643 of these in 2010. So what we have today is the addition of 3130 pre-poll votes which, as stated in the previous entry, have broken 1670 to 1460 in favour of the Liberals and increased their lead from 213 to 423. The table at the top of the post has now been amended to reflect this. As you can see, the notion that there would be more of these than last time and that they would be relatively favourable to Labor was quite correct, but not nearly to the extent they required. So it’s fair to say that the ABC computer, which has copped some flak over this, was right all along.

6.12pm. Boerwar in comments reports postals have favoured 1670 to 1460 to the Liberals – I’m not sure if this includes or is in addition to those counted last night, which favoured the Liberals 1072 to 1050. An update on the VEC tally room site would be nice.

6.09pm. The Herald-Sun reports that there are now merely “some postal votes” remaining to be counted, so obviously absent votes as well as pre-polls have been counted (although I fail to see how absent votes could have been assembled so quickly from every corner of the state). In any case, a very clear impression emerges that barring counting errors, the Liberal lead of about 400 is insurmountable, ending any doubts about the overall result.

5.45pm. Rod Hagen in comments hears from Twitter that pre-poll counting in Bentleigh is trending against Labor, increasing the Liberal lead from 213 to 430.

5pm. By popular demand, the VEC have announced they will be counting the pre-poll votes from Bentleigh today. In what promises to be the television event of the year, this will apparently be broadcast live on Sky News.

Saturday night

This thread will be used to follow late counting in the Victorian election, which – for those who have just joined us – promises to be a focus of fierce interest due to the possibility of a 44-44 tied parliament if everything falls Labor’s way. For now you’ll have to look elsewhere for a summary of the situation. However, below is a table which will hopefully shed some light on a few important aspects of the situation. Four must-win seats are identified in the table, of which Labor currently leads in three while trailing by 213 votes (0.38 per cent) in Bentleigh. The first row of the table shows two-party results from ordinary votes, thus excluding the postals that were added last night. To give an idea of how the remainder of the count might go, the next five rows show Labor’s two-party results on the various types of vote in 2006. The story goes that a large number of pre-polls might offer salvation here for Labor in Bentleigh, but that would seem very unlikely indeed going on the precedent of last time. However, Labor is doing slightly less poorly on postal votes than last time — their primary vote is only 1.5 per cent lower — so there might be at least something in the idea that votes cast earlier would not have copped the effects of the late swing to the Coalition. The left column shows the percentage of the statewide vote accounted for by each vote type in 2010. The bottom half of the table shows the ordinary vote turnout in each electorate, which as you may have heard was substantially lower than last time.

% Bentleigh Eltham Macedon Ball. East
2010 Ordinary ? 50.0% 50.8% 51.2% 50.9%
2006 Ordinary 78.0% 57.2% 56.8% 58.7% 56.8%
2006 Pre-Poll 9.0% 50.3% 56.5% 56.2% 53.8%
2006 Postal 6.5% 49.7% 49.5% 54.9% 52.1%
2006 Absent 6.5% 57.9% 60.7% 61.0% 63.8%
2006 Declaration 0.1% 81.0% 44.4% 50.0%
Ordinary votes as percentage of enrolment
2006 75.5% 74.3% 69.1% 73.9%
2010 68.0% 64.3% 67.4% 66.5%

Finally, can we please keep this thread specifically for discussion of the count. If you would like to discuss the Victorian election in more general terms, the election night thread is still open below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

292 comments on “Victorian election: photo finishes”

Comments Page 5 of 6
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  1. [The Greens flows in Eltham also seem to be incredibly high.]
    I thought Etham was very much a Green area, for want of a better term. I’m surprised the Libs got so close there.

  2. Gary: Hasn’t Bailieu already threatened to walk away from the health reforms agreed by Brumby?
    How then could the new Liberal government fulfill its promise to provide an extra 800 hospital beds?

    Eltham is defying the trend, looks like Labor will hang on to that one.

  3. [Gary: Hasn’t Bailieu already threatened to walk away from the health reforms agreed by Brumby?]
    All Ted has said is that they will examine the health agreement and work from there. I think he will turn to water on that.

  4. [Gary prolly ask for more money

    Then claim as a victory and suggest Brumby sold us out….I can see the talking points already lol.]
    Exactly, that’s how politics works Glen on both sides.

  5. [Looks like it was Bentleigh or bust for the Libs in the end.]
    In retrospect probably good for Victoria I think. There is no doubt the Labor government had become stale and somewhat unresponsive to the community. Ted and gang tapped into this and will probably govern with the slimmest of majorities. That will keep them honest and on their toes. Not a bad thing.

  6. I agree that this is a good thing for Victorians and might be a good thing for the ALP as well

    Victoria is a little like NSW and Qld at the last elections, new leader going to poll, promising they will do better, if you look at what happened in NSW and Qld, Victorians and the ALP might have gotten very lucky

  7. Is it a good thing ever being in opposition?
    Those remaining Victorian Labor MPs will be a rather demoralised lot, including those who not so long ago were in ministerial portfolios.
    I guess Tim Holding or Daniel Andrews will have to step up to the plate, and keep this Bailieu Government honest, because you can be sure that the Melbourne media will be giving the Libs an easy run.

  8. [Is it a good thing ever being in opposition?
    Those remaining Victorian Labor MPs will be a rather demoralised lot, including those who not so long ago were in ministerial portfolios.
    I guess Tim Holding or Daniel Andrews will have to step up to the plate, and keep this Bailieu Government honest, because you can be sure that the Melbourne media will be giving the Libs an easy run.]
    A couple of points. Firstly, no party can govern forever. Oppsition beckons both of them at some stage.
    Secondly, given that when it happens, and particularly after such a long stint, the best a party can hope for is to do so with losing by as few seats as possible. Preferably by one or two seats. This makes the new opposition formidable both in numbers and experience and gives them a real shot at the following election.
    Thirdly, there is no doubt in my mind the Labor government had stopped listening and only started listening again in the last few months.
    Fourthly, there is also no doubt in my mind that had Labor scraped in this time, next time would have been decidedly ugly and the Libs would have been assured of 8 years at least. At the moent they are not assured of it.
    So given my first point, yes is the answer to your question.

  9. Regardless of how close the margin was this time, the sophomore bounce in 2014 together with the public usually allowing a government extra time should ensure the Baillieu Coalition government gets two terms. This means there is no need for unseemly haste in rolling out policies that would benefit from more careful implementation and consideration of all the ramifications. There are some really significant changes planned to health, education, transport and justice. These could be major reforms that will stand the test of time or badly botched waste of public funds. In fact, one of the few reasons the public turns against a government after one term is that it has a record of waste and mismanagement and loses their trust.

    That said, all the interest now should be on the Legislative Council. There are a number of very close contests and the Coalition has a fair chance of getting to 21 members with the Greens on 2 and the ALP on 17.

    This is based on 2 Liberals in Northern Metro Province (beating out Mayne and the ALP), 3 ALP in Western (beating out the Greens) and 3 Coalition in Northern Province (beating out the Country Alliance). To create a really interesting chamber, the Greens could go to 3, the ALP down to 16 and the Liberals down to 19 with two cross-benchers (CA and Mayne). This is unlikely.

    The result of a Coalition majority in the Council is that key ALP reforms such as the Charter of Human Rights and Responsibilities would be repealed or neutered. It doesn’t take long to unwind what are perceived as excesses of previous governments if you control the parliament.

  10. [Regardless of how close the margin was this time, the sophomore bounce in 2014 together with the public usually allowing a government extra time should ensure the Baillieu Coalition government gets two terms.]
    You really haven’t learned anything from the federal scene the last few years have you? Making those types of assumptions is dangerous.

  11. Checking out Mayne’s chance in Northern Metro and there is another discrepancy between VEC and ABC there. ABC from a slightly earlier stage have the Greens at 56576 but the VEC have them back to 56330. Thus while Mayne is only notionally (assuming all votes are ATL) 256 up on the second Green on the ABC’s figure, on the VEC’s current figure he is 540 up. With 341 below-the-lines for Group A, he clears the second Green comfortably if the VEC’s figures are assumed to be representative, but on the ABC’s he’d need a significant below the line flow from Group A.

    On the VEC figures he is notionally over Labor by 3476 at the other crunch point (he is no longer over the Liberals who have improved their position) but the BTLs of his feeders are worth 3203. So at the moment he would win unless the third Labor candidate did somewhat better off those BTLs than he did – which looking at past scrutinies is quite possible.


  12. Giuseppe,

    Most first term Governments lose support at their first election after gaining power. Bracks was an exception.

  13. The reason Bracks was an exception is that he was not expected to win. Nor was Baillieu. In both cases, the closeness of the result means that the public will want to give them a second chance. Hawke and Howard lost support in their second election but they were able to work off a significant buffer and the previous election was one they were expected to win and change the government. Similarly Kennett in 1996 lost support even though he went to the polls in the middle of the Howard honeymoon. He had a huge buffer of votes in most seats to defend so didn’t lose many seats in the Assembly (two or three is my recollection) and indeed improved his position in the Legislative Council. What happened was that seats went from 8% to 4% and this enabled 1999 to be a close election. The same thing happened to the ALP in 2006 compared to 2002. The margins shrunk back to make a large number of seats more marginal.

    Baillieu has won many seats with large swings so they are not ultra marginal. Indeed, their are a bunch of ultra marginal ALP held seats now.

    It seems the Greens are all that separates the ALP from political oblivion in the short term while destroying their left flank in the long term. Has anyone checked to see how many seats the ALP was second to the Liberals but won on Greens preferences? I would expect it to be in the double digits.

  14. [Most first term Governments lose support at their first election after gaining power. Bracks was an exception.]

    Also Beattie and Rann, having in common that they barely won in minority from Opposition the first time then won easily in their own right the next time round. It seems to be Oppositions that win big that are most prone to going backwards at the next election.

    Bentleigh Libs now +559
    B East Labor +347
    Eltham Labor +265
    Macedon Labor +419.

  15. [Has anyone checked to see how many seats the ALP was second to the Liberals but won on Greens preferences? I would expect it to be in the double digits.]

    I get ten, plus a couple of seats where the Liberals would probably start ahead of Labor if you distributed the National preferences at the start of the count.

  16. [ Latest results show Ms Edwards had 13,353 first-preference votes, ahead of Mr Oliver on 7531, and Liberal candidate Anita Donlon on 6702.

    Mr Oliver’s preferences have yet to be counted. ]

    Of course they’ve been counted – where’d they get that 7.93% ALP vs Lib margin from, eh?

    This reminds me a bit of the WA seat of North West. In that case, the Nats came a narrow third to the Libs, and over a third of their voters preferenced Labor; if the Nats had got ahead of the Libs, they’d’ve had a much better chance of winning due to the Liberal voters’ typical obedience (as seen in Pilbara next door, where the Libs came third). Comparing that across to here, I’d say the ALP vs Nat margin won’t be anywhere near as comfortable as 7.9%, but they should get home with much-needed help from the Greens.

  17. Bird of Paradox

    You have missed a vital point. The VEC have distributed preferences on a presumed ALP-Lib split but the Nats have outpolled the Libs. There are a few issues here where the margin will be substantially narrowed.

    1. The donkey vote – on an ALP-Lib split that votes to the ALP because the Libs are below the ALP on the ballot paper. On an ALP-NP split the Nats are higher so they get the vote.
    2. On eof the minor parties (could have been CA) had the Nats before the ALP on their HTV cards but the libs after. Those prefes will now go the Nats.

    Not enough there to change the result but it will narrower than 57.9% to the ALP.

  18. Steve Herbert is home in Eltham. Absentees have gone his way 1177 – 905 which has stretched his lead to 546 with a turnout of 93.7%. There can only be a small number of votes remaining.

  19. Bad news for Mayne today – the Greens have dropped back but they have dropped back too far! He now gets over them easily but with a notional lead of only 2577 over Labor, and with his feeders having 3170 BTLs between them, he is actually behind on ATLs and would need to significantly outperform the third Labor candidate on the preceding BTLs to get up. I would not expect this to happen so I would say that on current figures he’s not quite making it and he needs the distribution of other party votes to improve. If he doesn’t make it he elects the Liberal and that could well be 21 for the Coalition though I haven’t looked at the others all that closely.

    Bentleigh Lib +464
    Eltham ALP +546
    Ball East ALP +510
    Macedon ALP +635

  20. William, your LC totals seem out: Liberal should be 15 and In Doubt 3.

    How did the BTLs go last time, if they are in the same proportion and go the same way as last time does that help the coalition?

  21. BBP:

    [ You have missed a vital point. The VEC have distributed preferences on a presumed ALP-Lib split but the Nats have outpolled the Libs. There are a few issues here where the margin will be substantially narrowed.

    Not enough there to change the result but it will narrower than 57.9% to the ALP. ]

    Yeah, I said that, eh. Read my post again. 😉 Check those North West / Pilbara pages from the WAEC for maybe-comparable stuff of Nats and Libs chasing each other for second place. Not sure how comparable the bolshie WA Nats are to their Vic cousins, but their voters certainly preferenced Labor more than the Liberals did in similar seats.

    Why would the Country Alliance put Labor ahead of the Libs? Dunno, but it seems to be the way both of their HTV cards go (see ’em ” rel=”nofollow”>here). Both cards are the same except for positions 2 and 6 swapping between Labor and the Nats… Libs 7, Greens 8. Seems odd for a right-of-centre mob like that to do.

  22. [How did the BTLs go last time, if they are in the same proportion and go the same way as last time does that help the coalition?]

    Not all that comparable because of a very different candidate mix. I did, however, notice that the BTLs of minor candidates who were excluded in N Metro last time seemed to favour major parties over other minor candidates.

  23. Much as I hate to disagree with Kevin Bonham, I still think Mayne’s big problem is that the Greens can get ahead of him: they’ve been dropping as pre-polls from safe Labor areas came in, but most of the absentees are still to come & that’s their best category. With today’s lot they’re already back up to 18.14%.

  24. Yes on today’s figures Mayne now has the reverse problem again – the Green vote has gone back up in today’s counting and this now means that instead of having nearly 1000 to spare over the Green as was the case yesterday, Mayne only has a notional lead of 137, which turns into an actual – and insurmountable – deficit of 211 on above-the-lines. He now needs the Green vote to go down a little, if it keeps going up from here he can’t win. If he does lose at that early stage then Labor might be in the hunt for the last seat; a few days ago there was nothing in it between them and the Libs if that occurred, but I haven’t checked the current outcome if that happens.

    Conversely Mayne’s position vs Labor has improved today as he is notionally 3926 up on them, which translates to a real lead of about 566 before the ATLs, although there’s no guarantee he’d hold that.

  25. The Greens have 37% of all absent votes in N Metro counted so far. In 2006 their lead candidate polled 21.8% of absents (27331), 12.2% of postals (19239) and 18.8% of earlies (28199) from a total vote of 16.5%. I haven’t added in the minor Greens to these figures.

    Thus far the Greens in total have 11.5% of 21079 postals, 19% of 31467 earlies and 37% of 3979 absents. Presumably this means that the areas from which absents have been included are unusually pro-Green but even so the Green vote should still increase on the rest.

  26. Labor did well to hold Eltham, which I assume is a natural Liberal seat and probably should have gone back to the Conservatives with the likes of Benleigh & Mitchum. 🙂

    The ABC website says that the final result is 45 Coalition, 43 Labor in the lower house.

  27. Uh-oh.

    The VEC has started rechecking the primary totals for Northern Metropolitan. Instead of keeping the provisional totals in the same place, publishing the recheck results separately and changing the provisional totals after (or progressively during) the recheck, the VEC has apparently taken the current full-count details offline during the recheck and put up the progressive recount results instead.

    Worse, these are feeding to the ABC computer which is saying “A full distribution of preferences will be published once 5% of the votes have been counted.

    (3.66% of votes have been counted so far.)”

    Similar thing is happening in other seats. So, for instance, because the N Vic count is now based on an 18.6% recheck, the ABC model is now again awarding the CA a seat (easily), although the last time I checked even the ABC model for the full count wasn’t awarding it.

    It will probably be a while before we see sensible figures on how the count is going online again.

  28. I ran the VEC totals from Wednesday night through my election calculator, which handles ungrouped candidates and below the line preference leakage, and it suggested the Lib would get the 5th spot. I’ve put the full count on my blog at if anyone’s interested 🙂

  29. Northern metro is the only area with a low count at this stage of just over 8%.

    Noted that late count in Melbourne seems to be favouring the Greens – with the 2PP swing to the ALP now down to 4% from about 5.5% on votes counted on the night.

  30. dgh1@234

    They’ve started recounting (“rechecking”). I think they’re recounting inner city booths first, since the Green / Mayne vote seems higher than it was last I saw Wednesday night (where the first count was nearly complete).

  31. The Sex Party now have their turn to bask in the glow of false electoral glory as based on the 32% recounted they are now showing as winning the 5th N Metro seat. More usefully, the current ABC model gives some insight as to how the count might go on the (likely) assumption that Mayne fails to get over the Greens – except that I think once the real figures are included the Sex Party will fall a fair way short of Labor and then it is a question of whether the two combined have enough to beat the Liberal.

  32. I’ve just noticed a funny little detail in North Metro – the CDP preferenced the DLP above FF. They’re all Christian parties who preference each other in some order, and it usually wouldn’t make much difference which order; it does here though. When the CDP get excluded, Mayne is just ahead of FF in the last two positions – if the CDP preferences went to FF before DLP, then Mayne would be excluded next count, and Lib #2 would probably win on CDP + FF + DLP preferences. Instead, FF go out and Mayne gets their votes (and then gets ahead of Sex Party, etc etc).

    [ Is it correct that Labor has held its three seats in West Metro? ]

    According to Antony Green’s latest post, it’s still too close to call.

  33. Western Metro have the Greens and the Sex party on about .99 of a quota, with exhaustions etc this means the Greens member will get back in.

  34. [Western Metro have the Greens and the Sex party on about .99 of a quota, with exhaustions etc this means the Greens member will get back in.]

    If the votes stay exactly as they are I don’t think so. Yes Labor’s below-the-lines from other parties will include Liberal below the lines which are prone to exhaust, but on the other hand, the Greens have a lot more below the lines from the Sex Party that they are depending upon.

    Green BTL vulnerability compared to notional results: Sex Party 1853 @ full value.
    Labor BTL vulnerability compared to notional results: (Family First 793 + DLP 1202 + Liberal 3529) * .0854 = 474 votes.

    Yes Labor are more exhaust prone because both Libs and DLP have full slates so voters can just vote for them and stop. But let’s assume every single Labor-feeding BTL exhausts and not a single Sex Party BTL exhausts, well in that case the Greens still need 87% of the Sex Party BTLs to get to them ahead of Labor in order to break even on BTLs. (Compared to an exhausting vote, a leak to the competing party is twice as damaging.) For every Sex Party BTL that exhausts the proportion of the non-exhausting SP BTLs Labor needs ahead of the Greens increases.

    Labor will lose votes by leakage from its own BTLs when the surpluses are distributed but 2006 patterns suggest at most seven-thousandths of its vote will disappear that way (some of this goes to minor Labor candidates then comes back when they’re excluded); some of that will go to the Greens but that’s still probably not quite enough to cover even the current notional gap.

    Very close but unless the primary figures change (which they may do if there are still some votes to add) I can’t see why the Greens would be favourites.

  35. Correction re above:

    [For every Sex Party BTL that exhausts the proportion of the non-exhausting SP BTLs Labor needs ahead of the Greens increases.]

    should read

    [For every Sex Party BTL that exhausts the proportion of the non-exhausting SP BTLs the Greens need ahead of Labor increases.]

  36. I take your points Kevin,
    I’ll be interested if there is any variance in the below the line for the ALP and the Libs etc. By this I mean people voting 1 ALP then 2 Green, there was so much static about the preferences that it will only take a few for it to occur.
    There could also be a reverse BTL thingo happening with some fo the micro rights. Having scrutineered often it never ceases to amaze me the nnumber of FF etc, DLP who will put the Greens second.? Time will tell!

  37. I see with 72.39% of the vote in North Metro now counted, Stephen Mayne has now moved ahead of the Greens (using the Antony Green calculator which is ATL only of course) by 341 votes, which then easily cascades him to eventual victory – which would hold the Lib/Nats to 20 seats and give him and the 2 or 3 Greens balance of power.

    After 91.2% of the vote in West Metro, Colleen Hartland from the Greens has a quarter of a toenail over the line for a quota (by about 45 votes).

    If they stay that close then BTL and exhausts will decide the final result – given the larger number of candidates and exclusion points in North Metro that one is a bit harder to pick, (and with a sizable vote still to count, I don’t think Labor could be ruled out for that one yet either). If I had to punt I’d go with the Libs (although I’d personally I’d prefer Stephen Mayne)

    West Metro looks so close that I guess we’ll just have to see what pops out when the button is finally pushed.

  38. Andrew
    Anthony Green in his latest update agrees with you – or maybe you are agreeing with him on the prospects of the Green in West Metro.

    Interesting feature seems to be an improvement of the Greens vote in both Upper and Lower House in the later counting -ie those votes not counted on the night.

    Greens now up to 11.2% in the lower house, Nationals down to 6.7%

  39. dgh1

    I’m agreeing with (or relying on) Antony (or his Upper House calculators anyway).

    Thanks – I hadn’t noticed the overall statewide increase – from memory that’s up about 0.6% from election night. The Green vote often goes up a bit with absentee and to a lesser extent pre-poll votes, although is usually lower with postals. I haven’t been following the VEC site closely enough to see whether there are mainly absentees or postals left in the Upper House counts.

    Increased primary vote from the remaining count is the main thing the Greens need in West Metro, as they’re only getting preferences from the Sex Party and need some buffer for BTLs. (although ironically if the Green vote goes up much in Metro North, it will mean the seat probably ends up with the Libs rather than Stephen Mayne).

    In another irony, after being put dead last by the Libs everywhere, it looks like Greens preferences will be crucial in ensuring the Libs win the final seat in Northern Victoria region ahead of the Country Alliance.

  40. “if the Green vote goes up much in Metro North, it will mean the seat probably ends up with the Libs rather than Stephen Mayne.” …. which is what the count is showing now that it is up to 82.93% counted – Mayne is 586 votes behind the Green when gets excluded, which leaves the Lib comfortably elected.

    Tiny increase in West Metro too, up to 91.27% counted, which increases the length of the Greens fingernail above the quota by another 18 votes, up to 63 (still nowhere near enough to get away from the uncertainty of BTLs)

  41. Yes the Green vote in N Metro is now up to 18.43%.

    Stephen Mayne had a big wrap of what seats were still to contribute to the N Metro count (prior to today) at

    He said “The likes of Broadmeadows and Thomastown will bring [the Greens’] lead down.” (the Greens were on 18.35% at that time) but what this comment ignored is that Northcote was by far the least completely counted area and it is strongly Green.

    I have noticed a bug in the ABC display for N Met at

    The votes received by the Sex Party from the Greens are not included in the final allocation to the Liberal and Labor parties when the last distribution is conducted.

    These Sex Party votes consisted of 6,330 (1.78%) votes (65,766 ballot papers at 0.0963 transfer value). They go to Labor.

    Adding them to the Labor total brings Labor up from the 13.93% currently showing to 15.71%, which is still not close enough to the Liberals.

    W Met obviously the Greens’ position improved considerably today as they are now precariously over notional quota. Since there is no longer a notional lead for Labor, the question is whether the differences in BTL exposure will hurt the Greens more than Labor’s losses from leakage on surpluses. Very hard to say which way it would go on current figures.

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