Victorian election: photo finishes

BENTLEIGH (Margin: 6.20%)

ALP LIB Swing 2006 votes
Ordinary 12,650 50.11% 12,595 49.89% 7.12% 27,106
Postal 1,491 45.28% 1,802 54.72% 4.45% 2,785
Early 1,857 47.04% 2,091 52.96% 3.25% 2,223
Provisional 109 60.22% 72 39.78% 20.73% 21
Absent 1,062 50.26% 1,051 49.74% 7.68% 1,643
TOTAL 17,169 49.36% 17,611 50.64% 6.84% 33,778

ELTHAM (Margin: 6.41%)

ALP LIB Swing 2006 votes
Ordinary 12,382 50.83% 11,980 49.17% 5.94% 27,530
Postal 1,262 46.59% 1,447 53.41% 2.87% 2,497
Early 3,209 50.45% 3,152 49.55% 6.01% 3,266
Provisional 96 51.89% 89 48.11% 14.78% 6
Absent 1,234 56.68% 943 43.32% 4.05% 1,775
TOTAL 18,183 50.80% 17,611 49.20% 5.61% 35,074

BALLARAT EAST (Margin: 6.81%)

ALP LIB Swing 2006 votes
Ordinary 13,288 51.49% 12,521 48.51% 5.35% 26,866
Postal 1,331 48.84% 1,394 51.16% 3.23% 2,026
Early 2,315 48.55% 2,453 51.45% 5.28% 2,268
Provisional 158 54.30% 133 45.70% 2.51% 0
Absent 1,576 57.94% 1,144 42.06% 5.88% 2,236
TOTAL 18,668 51.41% 17,645 48.59% 5.40% 33,396

MACEDON (Margin: 8.17%)

ALP LIB Swing 2006 votes
Ordinary 15,671 51.21% 14,930 48.79% 7.48% 28,429
Postal 1,505 48.44% 1,602 51.56% 6.47% 2,455
Early 3,351 50.04% 3,346 49.96% 2.43% 6,245
Provisional 139 62.61% 83 37.39% -12.61% 16
Absent 1,315 57.73% 963 42.27% 3.27% 1,910
TOTAL 21,981 51.23% 20,924 48.77% 6.94% 39,055


Eastern Metro 2 3
Northern Metro 2 (-1) 2 (+1) 1
South-Eastern Metro 3 2
Southern Metro 1 (-1) 3 (+1) 1
Western Metro 2 (-1) 2 (+1) 1
Eastern Victoria 2 2 1
Northern Victoria 2 2 1
Western Victoria 2 2 1 (+1) 0 (-1)
TOTAL 16 18 3 3 0 0

Tuesday, December 14

The button was pushed today on the count for the Legislative Council, securing the Coalition its 21 seats out of 40 and wrapping up the election count as a whole. Key to the Coalition triumph was Liberal candidate Craig Ondarchie’s victory in Northern Metropolitan from the second position on his party’s ticket, producing a result of two Labor, two Liberal and one Greens. His win came at the expense of Stephen Mayne, who in the event finished fairly solidly behind the second Greens candidate (2.6 per cent to 1.6 per cent) at a point where he had hoped to stay in contention by absorbing her preferences, and the Sex Party, who with 7.4 per cent failed to stay ahead of third Labor candidate Nathan Murphy on 9.1 per cent at the second last count. At that point the second Ondarchie was far enough ahead of Murphy that there was no prospect of preferences closing the gap, with the former sneaking over a quota on preferences from Mayne. In Western Metropolitan, below-the-line votes made the difference by heavily favouring the Greens – largely because below-the-lines for right-wing minor parties who had put Labor ahead of the Greens on their preference ticket tended to exhaust. The rate of exhaustion was such that Colleen Hartland won election with slightly under a quota, finishing on 16.6 per cent to Labor candidate Bob Smith on 16.2 per cent.

Saturday, December 11

As you may have noticed I’ve been less than vigilant in following the count, but those with an interest will be aware that Stephen Mayne continued to fade in late counting in terms that will almost certainly deliver the final Northern Metropolitan seat to the Liberals, securing the Coalition their upper house majority. The only remaining point of curiosity is whether Colleen Hartland of the Greens can secure re-election in Western Metropolitan, thereby achieving a status quo result for a party that had hoped for so much better. Antony Green reports all will be revealed when the button is finally pushed on Tuesday. Hopefully there will be no repeat of the 2006 error in which the Democratic Labor Party was wrongly credited with a second seat.

Monday, December 6

Stopped paying attention there for a while after the VEC started re-checking and took their existing results offline. Antony Green offers a thorough update, noting that recounting in Northern Metropolitan is proceeding slowly due to intensive scrutineering of the result that could deliver the Coalition an upper house majority. In Western Metropolitan, the tide seems to be favouring the Greens’ Colleen Hartland, who might yet retain her seat at the expense of Labor’s number three. UPDATE: Kevin Bonham in comments still rates her the underdog.

Wednesday, December 1

Stephen Mayne has discussed his prospects at length in his email newsletter, noting he has two hurdles to clear: first to stay ahead of the Greens at what appears as count 8 in the ABC’s projection, where he is currently on 1.54 per cent to the Greens’ 1.22 per cent, and then for the below-the-line count to not upset his applecart by putting him behind Liberal and Labor at the second last count. Mayne rates himself only a 50-50 chance of clearing the first hurdle as he expects the Greens to surge as absent votes are added. I’m not sure what was added today, but the addition has seen the Greens lose ground – possibly too much for Mayne, as Kevin Bonham argues in comments, because it will mean fewer of their preferences for him if he can stay ahead. Bonham reckons Mayne will need to significantly outperform Labor in preferences from the 3170 below-the-line votes which are recorded as going to him on the ABC projection, which treats all votes as above-the-lines. Bonham, who has learned a thing or two about preference behaviour from analysis of Hare-Clark elections in his home jurisdiction of Tasmania, reckons this unlikely, and that the most probable result would indeed be a twenty-first seat for the Coalition.

In the lower house, addition of absent and other votes have seen Labor pull further ahead in Eltham and Ballarat East, to 546 and 510 votes respectively, which puts these seats and the final result beyond doubt: the Liberals have won 35 seats and the Nationals 10, with Labor on 43. I will continue updating my tables as new figures come in, but I won’t be offering any further commentary on the lower house unless something unusually interesting happens.

Tuesday, November 30

Long past time I had something to say about the upper house, with the Coalition on the precipice of majorities in both houses. The Liberals have gained a seat from Labor in Southern Metropolitan and the Nationals have gained the DLP’s seat in Western Victoria. They also look likely to win seats from the Greens in Western Metropolitan and to hold off a challenge from the Country Alliance in Northern Victoria, where their second seat had been under threat. That puts the Coalition on 18 seats out of 40 with a likely extra two to achieve a blocking majority, and the chance of getting over the line for an absolute majority of 21. The decisive factor in Northern Metropolitan will be the second last count, at which the Labor number three, Liberal number two and Stephen Mayne appear to be at almost level pegging. Mayne will win the seat if he finishes ahead of either or both, and the current ABC projection has him finishing ahead of Labor after soaking up the Greens’ surplus and an eclectic range of preferences from the Sex Party, DLP and Family First. Should he finish behind the seat will almost certainly go to the Liberals, although Labor remain at least a mathematical possibility.

In continuing lower counting, Labor’s lead has more than doubled in Ballarat East, from 166 to 343, with the addition of 657 more postals and the first 766 absents. It was the latter which made the difference, breaking 60-40 their way – not unpredictably given that most would be sourced from town voters who cast their ballots in Ballarat West. Eltham too has become slightly firmer for Labor with 795 more pre-polls gaining them a handy 53 votes, but losses on rechecking have pared back the overall improvement in their lead, which goes from 245 to 267. Bentleigh and Macedon have drifted out of the doubtful column. Rechecking and a highly unfavourable batch of 819 absent votes has further increased the Liberal lead in Bentleigh from 460 to 559. In Macedon, the addition of 419 postal votes has cut Labor’s lead from 498 to 419, but it’s probably too little too late.

Monday, November 29

9pm. Another 605 postals in Bentleigh have broken 321-284 the Liberals’ way, increasing their lead from 423 to 460. In Eltham the addition of 5730 pre-polls and 600 more postals has increased Labor’s lead from 225 to 245. I’m not sure on what basis Labor sources quoted in the ABC yesterday were expecting to lose this seat – I would rate them better than even. Another 416 postal votes have been added in Ballarat East and have broken perfectly evenly, with Labor continuing to lead by 166.

4.30pm. Labor has had a disappointing result from 2268 pre-polls in Ballarat East which have cut their lead from 388 to 166. The addition of 5111 pre-polls from Macedon has also cut their lead from 719 to 498. However, absent votes remain to be added, and in both cases they favoured Labor heavily in 2006.

Sunday, November 28

11pm. Bob Katter’s Hat in comments relates that according to an ABC report, “Labor sources expect to lose Eltham but are ‘hopeful’ on Macedon”.

6.41pm. If there are the same number of absent votes as last time, and if anything there are likely to be fewer, they would need to defy every trend going by swinging to Labor by 5 per cent to overturn the Liberals’ lead.

6.34pm. The VEC site has now updated, and it has the Liberal lead at 15,667 to 15,244. The Herald-Sun’s assertion that only “some postal votes” remain to be counted is at best imprecise, as no absent votes have been added – and there were 1643 of these in 2010. So what we have today is the addition of 3130 pre-poll votes which, as stated in the previous entry, have broken 1670 to 1460 in favour of the Liberals and increased their lead from 213 to 423. The table at the top of the post has now been amended to reflect this. As you can see, the notion that there would be more of these than last time and that they would be relatively favourable to Labor was quite correct, but not nearly to the extent they required. So it’s fair to say that the ABC computer, which has copped some flak over this, was right all along.

6.12pm. Boerwar in comments reports postals have favoured 1670 to 1460 to the Liberals – I’m not sure if this includes or is in addition to those counted last night, which favoured the Liberals 1072 to 1050. An update on the VEC tally room site would be nice.

6.09pm. The Herald-Sun reports that there are now merely “some postal votes” remaining to be counted, so obviously absent votes as well as pre-polls have been counted (although I fail to see how absent votes could have been assembled so quickly from every corner of the state). In any case, a very clear impression emerges that barring counting errors, the Liberal lead of about 400 is insurmountable, ending any doubts about the overall result.

5.45pm. Rod Hagen in comments hears from Twitter that pre-poll counting in Bentleigh is trending against Labor, increasing the Liberal lead from 213 to 430.

5pm. By popular demand, the VEC have announced they will be counting the pre-poll votes from Bentleigh today. In what promises to be the television event of the year, this will apparently be broadcast live on Sky News.

Saturday night

This thread will be used to follow late counting in the Victorian election, which – for those who have just joined us – promises to be a focus of fierce interest due to the possibility of a 44-44 tied parliament if everything falls Labor’s way. For now you’ll have to look elsewhere for a summary of the situation. However, below is a table which will hopefully shed some light on a few important aspects of the situation. Four must-win seats are identified in the table, of which Labor currently leads in three while trailing by 213 votes (0.38 per cent) in Bentleigh. The first row of the table shows two-party results from ordinary votes, thus excluding the postals that were added last night. To give an idea of how the remainder of the count might go, the next five rows show Labor’s two-party results on the various types of vote in 2006. The story goes that a large number of pre-polls might offer salvation here for Labor in Bentleigh, but that would seem very unlikely indeed going on the precedent of last time. However, Labor is doing slightly less poorly on postal votes than last time — their primary vote is only 1.5 per cent lower — so there might be at least something in the idea that votes cast earlier would not have copped the effects of the late swing to the Coalition. The left column shows the percentage of the statewide vote accounted for by each vote type in 2010. The bottom half of the table shows the ordinary vote turnout in each electorate, which as you may have heard was substantially lower than last time.

% Bentleigh Eltham Macedon Ball. East
2010 Ordinary ? 50.0% 50.8% 51.2% 50.9%
2006 Ordinary 78.0% 57.2% 56.8% 58.7% 56.8%
2006 Pre-Poll 9.0% 50.3% 56.5% 56.2% 53.8%
2006 Postal 6.5% 49.7% 49.5% 54.9% 52.1%
2006 Absent 6.5% 57.9% 60.7% 61.0% 63.8%
2006 Declaration 0.1% 81.0% 44.4% 50.0%
Ordinary votes as percentage of enrolment
2006 75.5% 74.3% 69.1% 73.9%
2010 68.0% 64.3% 67.4% 66.5%

Finally, can we please keep this thread specifically for discussion of the count. If you would like to discuss the Victorian election in more general terms, the election night thread is still open below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

292 comments on “Victorian election: photo finishes”

Comments Page 1 of 6
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  1. The best the ALP can hope for is a hung parliament but the Coalition could get up to 47 or 48 seats if the usual pattern of postal and pre-poll votes continues in this election. While I doubt this will happen, given their much improved staffing of pre-polling stations and ordinary booths, if they are unlucky, the Greens may well lose one Legislative Council seat and could lose two (Western and Southern). Northern is a certainty for the Greens but the battles in Southern and Western appear to be with the ALP #3 in Western and ALP #2 in Southern. The Coalition has three members in Eastern Metro, Eastern and Southern and two certain members in South Eastern. On current figures, it will have two in Western Metro and Northern Metro. To get to 21, it needs to defeat the Country Alliance in Northern and Western provinces so it can claim 3 in each. This gives it 5 x 3 + 3 x 2 = 21. It could end up as low as 3 x 3 + 5 x 2 = 19.

  2. One interesting element that I haven’t seen discussed involves the VEC promotion of the fact that due to Vic electoral act changes people who were not actually enrolled could take their ID along and enroll and vote “on the spot” at the polling booth.

    THis is a pretty substantial change in procedure. I find myself wondering how many people took advantage of this process and what demographic they represent. Presumably they are more likely to be young rather than old.

    Presumably, too, this is going to have a lead to a big increase in “declaration votes” (or will the simply have been counted within the “ordinary votes’? )

    I was going to check the process at the vec site but it is still, worryingly, down. There is a paper on the matter (produced before the change in approach) at

    Apparently the potential size of the resulting bundle of votes can be quite substantial.

    My bet is that the new system might also have a few teething issues (just because it is new). THis may well lead to increased disputation about results in some situations.

    Anyone else have thoughts on possible implications given the closeness of the count?

  3. I just had a look at the ABC projections for the Legislative Council. They show that Stephen Mayne defeats the Liberals on ALP preferences for the final spot – so the result is ALP 2, Greens 1, Liberals 1, Mayne 1. This would be quite a surprise but Stephen Mayne has written of how he had to get only 1% of the vote to get elected given the great preference deals he did. Apparently, it all depends on him staying ahead of Group A and picking up the surplus Greens vote once they have used their quota. If this holds and the Liberals don’t get 2 in Northern Metro Province, the Coalition will not be able to repeal a whole raft of ALP legislation (such as the Charter of Human Rights and Responsibilities Act) and may be unable to pass some of its more controversial law and order stuff. The Greens and ALP will have 19 seats between them and Mayne with his 1 vote will be able to decide the fate of every piece of legislation.

  4. My bet , Andrew, (though I haven’t checked the figures) is that there wasn’t so much a “swing” in the last week or so, as substantial growth in the number of “undecideds” opting for the coalition.

    Another likely component is that many who may have been considering a protest vote lodged with The Greens decided, given the barrage of anti Greens rhetoric as extremists in the final weeks, simply lodged their “protest” with the Liberals instead.

  5. If indeed the shocking weather across much of Victoria for much of the day caused a lower than usual turnout, it is likely that this would favour the coalition (using the UK and USA experience, as well as the “can’t be bothered voting for so-so govt” v “we need a change” vote). It would be somewhat ironic given that Labor governed through 11 years of below-average rainfall, and made some major infrastructure decisions because of the 13 years of below-average rainfall in Victoria.

  6. It’s rare for us to have winter Federal or State elections, so yesterday would had to have been some of the worst election-day weather in a long time in Victoria. I am certain it will have had an impact on voter turnout, so I will be surprised if any seats’ total votes as percentage of enrolment get within 2-3% of last time in 2006. Turnout is obviously a major factor in the UK and USA with non-compulsory voting, but I think this could be the first time that its “minor” Australian impact could affect a result here because there are so many knife-edge seats.

  7. Making me wonder now whether the 54% 2PP for the Libs in WA at the federal election had anything to do with the rain we got that day.

  8. “can we please keep this thread specifically for discussion of the count. If you would like to discuss the Victorian election in more general terms, the election night thread is still open below.”

  9. One interesting element that I haven’t seen discussed involves the VEC promotion of the fact that due to Vic electoral act changes people who were not actually enrolled could take their ID along and enroll and vote “on the spot” at the polling booth.

    THis is a pretty substantial change in procedure. I find myself wondering how many people took advantage of this process and what demographic they represent. Presumably they are more likely to be young rather than old.

    Presumably, too, this is going to have a lead to a big increase in “declaration votes”

    No effect – I worked the dec table at my local booth yesterday and we ended up with 100 less dec votes total from the same time last time – and no “new” on-the-spot enrolments at all

    Must say however, the VEC roll is seriously screwed. We had 12 people who had to do a provisional vote because they had just gone MIA from the roll (but all said voted fine at the Fed Election)

    Oh and yet another thumbs down to the VEC for only allocating one roll PDA between two dec tables which created an easily avoidable delay and resulted in no point of actually having two tables

  10. Will there be any counting today? Does anyone know?

    The VEC front page is down, but I still have access to the summary page (left open after last night’s celebration drinky) and its showing last update as 11.56pm.

  11. [The VEC front page is down, but I still have access to the summary page (left open after last night’s celebration drinky) and its showing last update as 11.56pm.]

    As Inderstand it counting doesn’t recommence until tomorrow (according to a VEC official on ABC yesterday).

    You can access the tallyroom website and its subsidiary pages through but not the primary vec website (which is unfortunate if you want to compare, say, the last election results with the current ones).

    The last update on the tallyroom site was at 01:03:04 AM

  12. My prediction: This is no hung parliament, the Liberals are in government. Also a hung parliament is still not good for Labor.
    Another election will ensure the Libs win clearly. People want change we need to hope the Libs win just and hope they do not control upper house.

  13. Country Alliance will not win any regional seats, they will be stranded on 14ish % in Northern and the Greens preferences will elect a ALp member then a Coalition member. Interesting that in Northen Vic the Greens candidate would have won a seat if the Sex party and the ALP had preferenced the Greens before nutter parties. The Sex party should really be outed as a fairly cynical player here. The ALP, well they will never learn. The Greens preferences keeping out the Shooters and the Loggers shows why principles need consideration before game playing with preferences.
    Western Vic, 3 conservatives and two ALP, Poor old Greens candidate Marcus Ward, the man who lost to the DLP over another appaling ALP preference decision in 2006 has now seen the swing go past him and the coalition will round up that seat.
    Eastern Vic, as you were, the Country Alliance thing just not quite there.
    Lower house seat of Shepparton, quite extraordinary with Country Alliance gaining 20+% and should roll into the second party in this seat. Similarily the Nats have come second in Bendigo West. In both occasions the VEC have not counted the preferences correctly, just another complaint against the worse Electoral Commision in the free world.

  14. Lets not forget Essendon, ALP lead only 626 and given Madden’s high profile, late votes could through up some suprises. Also an odd vote in the Newmarket booth where the green vote is higher than the Libs. Could this be an error – perhaps reducing the lead further?

  15. “Libs are likely to get 45 by winning Bentleigh.”

    I agree, with the prospect of a hung parliament, however, I presume that the only new election would be a Lower House, therefore, the Greens might decide to just put a up a few candidates and not even bother to do much. This could seriously hinder the ALP vote?
    I agree with senitiments that the ALP has been saved from an NSW/QLD 10 year wilderness period by losing closely the election they should lose and not the one to many senario.

  16. I make a 2.8% swing to the Liberals in the postal vote in Bentleigh giving the Liberals 53.1% 2PP, up from 50.3% in 2006. If the swing transfers into pre-poll votes then it looks as if Bentleigh will drift from the ALP as predicted by the ABC computer. The way I see it, to hold Bentleigh, the ALP will need a significant jump in pre-poll voters to offset the already embedded swing in the remaining absentee and pre-poll votes if the 2006 results are a guide as Bentleigh (like the rest of Glen Eira) has a material Jewish community who don’t vote on the Sabbath but are Liberal inclined. In Bentleigh, the count is 75% complete (it was 80% and an equivalent point in 2006) it is also an aged electorate and voters may simply not have voted due to the weather. In short, there is little evidence to support the assertion/hope/view/ that there remains ALP voting pre-pollers still waiting to be counted to rescue the seat for Rob Hudson, and government for the ALP.

    A final few comments (as a local) is this. The pre-poll booth was directly opposite a controversial housing commission development that was imposed on Moorabbin with minimum consultation. You couldn’t have placed the pre-polling both in a worse place from an ALP perspective and more irritating from a local’s perspective as it is the booths in the south of the electorate which are affected by this development (and in the Brighton Secondary School zone) that have turned on the ALP with the largest swings. It pointed directly to the ineffectiveness of the local member and the arrogance of the ALP planning laws.

    Consequently, I don’t think you can extrapolate the 2006 results to infer a 2010 ALP victory as some people are doing. The location of the pre-polling booth and the results we have from postals suggest that pre-polls and absent votes probably won’t be immune from the overall swing.

    Antony Green and the ABC computer may have the last laugh in Bentleigh. I expect Elizabeth Miller to be my next MLA.

  17. but with whom does Labor have as a Leader after Brumby.

    The cupboard is pretty bare – but the bushwalker will probably end up as the new Opposition Leader with Jacinta Allan as deputy would be my tip

    Will there be any counting today? Does anyone know?

    Today they will be rechecking/recounting all the votes from the booths yesterday at the district offices

    Tomorrow they will start on the absents & pre-polls

  18. so if we do get 44-44, I think the ALP is stuffed anyway (or at least need to be angling for a second election due to the unworkability of parliament – this appears to be their best and only bet, unless they can find a Mal Colston lurking somewhere).

    The provisions below mean that the L/NP simply decline to nominate a speaker, meaning either an unworkable parliament or ALP having to nominate 1 – losing 1 vote, with the no-confidence motion then being carried 44-43. This situation can be dragged out for some time, however it will look very bad for a lame duck caretaker premier desperately clinging onto power.

    Constitution Act 1975 – SECT 39

    Election of Speaker

    39. Election of Speaker

    (1) The Assembly shall at its first meeting after a general election and
    before proceeding to the despatch of any other business elect a member of the
    Assembly to be Speaker.

    (2) In case of the death resignation or removal by a vote of the Assembly of
    the Speaker the Assembly shall before proceeding to the despatch of any other
    business elect some other member to be Speaker.

    (3) The Speaker shall preside at the meetings of the Assembly except as may be
    provided by the standing rules and orders.

    Constitution Act 1975 – SECT 40

    Quorum of Assembly

    40. Quorum of Assembly

    (1) The Assembly shall not proceed to the dispatch of business unless there be
    present exclusive of the Speaker at least twenty of the members.

    (2) Subject to section 18 all questions arising in the Assembly shall be
    decided by a majority of members present other than the Speaker and when the
    votes are equal the Speaker shall have a casting vote.

  19. ace the thing I find interesting about your comment is the Government has actually suffered big swings in areas that it is doing infrastruture projects. thios is surly unusal in the annals of Aussie politics.

    Interesting now I am yet to see the TTP but it looks like the Karingal Heights booth may have yet again gone to the party that wins. The Liberals won it on primaries now looking at the green vote it may fall to the ALP on TTP.

  20. The following list shows what percentage of 2PP the current leader requires to ensure winning the division. The closer to 50 the tighter the race/count is. This measure includes both the current count and the current percentage of expected votes counted (using current (Sunday noon) VEC count data)

    Eltham … ALP leads … needs 49.01 of all expected remaining 2PP votes
    Bentleigh … COA … 48.96
    Ballarat East … ALP … 48.30
    Narre Warren N … ALP … 47.97
    Essendon … ALP … 47.46
    Macedon … ALP … 47.18

    Albert Park & Monbulk, the difference between votes required and current count is more than 6%.

  21. Marky the Government looked to be in real trouble 18 months ago yet seemed to have turned it around somewhat. This leads me to wonder what the result would have been had this been 18 months ago.

    Onto the topic, I think it is fair to call Macedon and Eltham on the strenght of the Green perference flow. Ballarat East looks like holding and Berntleigh may comeback.

    I am not sure if there was a late swing, I think the early polls were too small and too focused on the inner city. The Liberals clearly have reclaimd its heartland.

  22. Upper House has been glossed over once again

    Surely Stephen Mayne has not been elected via 1% of the overall vote? Makes Steve Fielding’s 2% job a landslide

    Lib 16 (+1)
    Nat 3 (+1)
    ALP 17 (-2)
    Grn 2 (-1)
    CA 1 (+1)
    Ind/Mayne 1 (+1)
    DLP – (-1)

    Lib+Nat+CA = 20

    Mayne becomes the powerbroker if Antony’s calculator rings true

    Scary thought

    Eastern Metropolitan Region
    1 DALLA-RIVA, Richard Liberal Party
    2 LEANE, Shaun Australian Labor Party
    3 ATKINSON, Bruce Liberal Party
    4 KRONBERG, Jan Liberal Party
    5 TEE, Brian Australian Labor Party

    Eastern Victoria Region
    1 DAVIS, Philip Liberal Party
    2 VINEY, Matt Australian Labor Party
    3 HALL, Peter National Party
    4 O’DONOHUE, Edward Liberal Party
    5 SCHEFFER, Johan Australian Labor Party

    Northern Metropolitan Region
    1 MIKAKOS, Jenny Australian Labor Party
    2 GUY, Matthew Liberal Party
    3 BARBER, Greg Greens
    4 ELASMAR, Nazih Australian Labor Party
    5 MAYNE, Stephen Independent

    Northern Victoria Region
    1 LOVELL, Wendy Liberal Party
    2 BROAD, Candy Australian Labor Party
    3 DRUM, Damian National Party
    4 DARVENIZA, Kaye Australian Labor Party
    5 THRELFALL, Steven Country Alliance

    South Eastern Metropolitan Region
    1 JENNINGS, Gavin Australian Labor Party
    2 RICH-PHILLIPS, Gordon Liberal Party
    3 SOMYUREK, Adem Australian Labor Party
    4 PEULICH, Inga Liberal Party
    5 TARLAMIS, Lee Australian Labor Party

    Southern Metropolitan Region
    1 DAVIS, David Liberal Party
    2 LENDERS, John Australian Labor Party
    3 COOTE, Andrea Liberal Party
    4 CROZIER, Georgie Liberal Party
    5 PENNICUIK, Sue Greens

    Western Metropolitan Region
    1 PAKULA, Martin Australian Labor Party
    2 FINN, Bernie Liberal Party
    3 EIDEH, Khalil Australian Labor Party
    4 ELSBURY, Andrew Liberal Party
    5 SMITH, Bob Australian Labor Party

    Western Victoria Region
    1 KOCH, David Liberal Party
    2 PULFORD, Jaala Australian Labor Party
    3 RAMSAY, Simon Liberal Party
    4 TIERNEY, Gayle Australian Labor Party
    5 O’BRIEN, David National Party

  23. How come there has to be another election if there is a 44-44 tie. The Liberals and Labor should be asked to go into a coalition with each other.

    Having a new election so soon after the last one simply because the party’s won’t go into a coalition with each other to me almost seems like the parties colluding to go against the wishes of the electorate

  24. [Surely Stephen Mayne has not been elected via 1% of the overall vote?]

    This is just the ABC calculator projecting current totals on the erroneous modelling assumption that all votes will flow as per party ticket. As has been discussed in the other thread, that doesn’t happen, and furthermore on the ABC’s projection Mayne only gets over the second Green by 41 votes at one stage and that gap may well be wiped away.

  25. [The Australian is running a story saying counting in Bentliegh will be brought forward to continue today]

    That would be a good move by the VEC if so.

  26. [That would be a good move by the VEC if so.]

    Kevin, thank you, yes, a gentle reminder that The Oz is sometime less than precise in their reporting

  27. Brumby says he got the message but apparently not, he hasn’t resigned yet.
    I think Ted will be a refreshing change, he’s a no nonsence type of guy that knows how the world works, not a BS artist like Brumby, playing the man just made him look foolish and it didn’t work.

  28. [Ted and John are twins separated at birth aren’t they?]

    True, the only way I can tell them apart is by their accents.

    Ted speaks like he went to Melbourne Grammer.

    Brumby speaks like he needed to in order to succeed in the Union party

  29. [Earlier this morning, former Victorian premier Steve Bracks urged the National Party to talk to the ALP about forming a minority government to resolve the election deadlock.]
    Woah! Labor is really stuffed if they would even consider forming a Coalition with the Nats:

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