A Morgan phone poll has provided further evidence of a late shift to the Coalition to add to that from Galaxy, recording a 51-49 lead to the Coalition which as far as I can tell is the first time they have led in a poll since early 2005. Morgan sceptics should note that there is no reason to believe their phone polls are any less reliable than anyone else’s. The sample is 990, which is superficially highly respectable but seems to include the 327 respondents from the inner-city poll published earlier in the week – if so the margin-of-error is between 3.5 and 4 per cent. The poll has the Coalition leading on the primary vote 44.5 per cent to 35.5 per cent with the Greens on 13 per cent, their weakest showing of any poll in the campaign. John Brumby’s lead as preferred premier has narrowed to 43.5-39, and he has crashed to a minus 12.5 per cent personal rating with 34 per cent approval and 46.5 per cent disapproval. Ted Baillieu is on 40 per cent approval and 39 per cent disapproval.
You can read my final review of the situation in Crikey.
The value of JWS would be that they can poll a large number of people quickly so that they would be better able to pick up a trend even if the absolute number is not necessarily correct.
[The value of JWS would be that they can poll a large number of people quickly so that they would be better able to pick up a trend even if the absolute number is not necessarily correct.]
They were a long way off the federal result.
Gary
There has been commentary somewhere today (can’t recall where) that the bookies are not what they are cracked up to be. The federal and WA elections were both given as examples where it was much closer than the bookies would have suggested.
Gary
It’s very similar to SA. The polls crashed for Labor but the betting markets stayed firm and they proved right.
Then again, WA and Fed 10 weren’t encouraging for the bookies fans (unless you did the Fed by seat when it was quite accurate evidently).
William’s article at Crikey has a good review of the topic.
http://www.crikey.com.au/2010/11/26/poll-bludger-galaxy-poll-encourages-coalition-bookies-say-otherwise/
Tom @ 49
Yo can’t be serious suggesting that the only reason the Greens don’t have a leader is that they are not an ‘official’ party. They mightn’t get paid for having a leader – extra staff etc. – but they can still have someone that they call a leader.
blackburnpseph, do you give Kirstie any chance? I think she is gorn unfortunately.
Diogs
Williams article – Thats where I saw it!!
[Yo can’t be serious suggesting that the only reason the Greens don’t have a leader is that they are not an ‘official’ party. They mightn’t get paid for having a leader – extra staff etc. – but they can still have someone that they call a leader.]
Spot on. I can’t see why they don’t have a leader.
People who say “Labor should not have wasted resources fighting the Greens” – what are they advocating, that Labor should have just conceded the four inner city seats to the Greens, hoping that after that “concession” the Greens “leader” would come out and say “Thank you, at the next election we have no more territorial demands”
Before JWS and Morgan today, I posted yesterday that ALP insiders were concerned about Yan Yean. Two weeks ago I said it was 50/50. No longer. The swing is on. The scribes got the size wrong with Altona earlier this year. They’ve got it wrong again. The punters are about to throw John Brumby out. His personal attacks on Baillieu were lapped up by the journos as a great insider yarn. It will end up costing him the Premership.
Gary
No chance, as you know I have a very low opinion of Kirstie, but objectively, gone.
Though she has done quite well at getting herself on a lot of big posters. She has seemed to be more visible the last few months but she has spent a lot of the last 8 years being invisible.
Gary
I think the Greens have a group hug thing going with the pixies at the bottom of the garden – even the Democrats had leaders – lots.
In Tasmania, they have always had a leader, even when there were two of them.
Despite HTV cards, I wonder if there are any (many?) ALP voters who would put the Libs above the Greens? Andrew Landeryou perhaps – any others?
55
If there was an official position then there would be more benefit to having a leader. Having a leader would be a bit like the Leader of the Opposition, Deputy Leader of the Opposition and Opposition Whip in the Senate being the only Opposition Senators in the final term of the Chifley Government.
[Though she has done quite well at getting herself on a lot of big posters. She has seemed to be more visible the last few months but she has spent a lot of the last 8 years being invisible.]
I agree but I think Forest Hill is basically conservative anyway. Hard to hold for Labor at the best of times.
Rocket @ 59
Quite correct
13 seats is still a hell of a mountain to climb
I’d write all these off
Mount Waverley ALP 0.3%
Gembrook ALP 0.7%
Forest Hill ALP 0.8%
Mitcham ALP 2.0%
South Barwon ALP 2.3%
Frankston ALP 3.2%
Mordialloc ALP 3.5%
Prahran ALP 3.6%
Burwood ALP 3.7%
but that is only 9
all depends on the bush where some say the ALP is on the nose while others say ALP is solid there – who is telling the truth?
Ripon ALP 4.3%
Bendigo East ALP 5.4%
Ballarat West ALP 6.5%
Ballarat East ALP 6.6%
makes 13 but still tough
most likely option to me as of now is ALP majority (barely), hung parly next then Lib/NP majority
Might come down to whether the Nats can win back Gippsland East
But being a masochist I’d love it to end up
ALP 44
LIB/NP 44
GRN 0
IND 0
and watch the fun unfold with a big bag of popcorn
Gary
Forest Hill was a landslide pick up and I have always suspected there was an undercurrent of racism at the time as the Liberal candidate was Indian and has quite a strong accent – if I recall also there was disquiet with the liberal preselection. Also, John Richardson retired after 20+ years – so as far as the Libs went it was the perfect storm – and of course the Libs 2002 campaign must rank as about the worst in recent Australian political history.
If Ted does make it his problem down the track will be trying to live up to expectations. He’ll end up trying to explain why he hasn’t fixed everything like he said he would. I also think the talent pool on his front bench is very shallow.
Bob K
What we will be looking for are for swings greater than 6.5% giving the Coalition seats held by Labor between 6.5% and 10% should the baseball bats be out.
Big bags of popcorn all round tomorrow!
I hope the Libs get up in Prahran then I can finally have a non-Labor polly representing me in Parliament!
Gary Labor had 11 years 🙂
Why shouldnt the Libs get an 11 year stretch at some point 🙂
Bob, I’d be happy with a hung parliament. I thought Bracks’ first government was a good one. Any government that gets a landslide as in 2002 doesn’t seem to be as effective or innovative IMHO. Governments need to feel vulnerable. NSW is in for one poor government after another I reckon.
70
I hope the Greens get Prahran!
Because of the Liberal preference decision it probably is more of a chance than Northcote.
It would be good for the Greens to win on ALP preferences for a change.
Bob Katters Hat @ 67
I think there are a wider set of seats possibly in play for the Libs
Carrum, Yan Yean, Seymour, Bellarine, Geelong, Ivanhoe, Macedon
not sure about Bentleigh and Eltham though, and maybe Bendigo West. The Ballarats seem pretty secure to me, but West might go with the member retiring.
There are the inner city seats as well – Brunswick, Richmond, Melbourne and maybe Footscray.
All makes for an interesting night – still have to decide if it is a white or red night….wine that is
Gary
The Lib front bench talent depth isn’t deep … but then in 1999 Bracksie had 5 (?) ministers who were newly elected.
Tom the Greens would need a PV of above 30% to jump ahead of Labor lol
THe Libs will get between 44 and 47% PV and hence need only preferences from the Indie and FF to get over the line 😀
[Why shouldnt the Libs get an 11 year stretch at some point]
They’ve had plenty Glen.
Be careful you don’t set yourself up for disappointment Glen.
71
Because Victoria is unlikely to want them for 3 terms. The last time the Liberals were re-elected in Victoria for a term that was not their second was 1979.
[Gary
The Lib front bench talent depth isn’t deep … but then in 1999 Bracksie had 5 (?) ministers who were newly elected.]
We can only hope they get talent elected if they win. I hope that invisible shadow treasurer doesn’t get the job.
Rocket Rocket
Posted Friday, November 26, 2010 at 6:12 pm | Permalink
“Rod 24
Labor has been trying very hard to win enough lower house seats to govern, against stiff opposition from the Liberals and the Greens.
The Greens have been trying very hard to win lower house seats off Labor.
When the Greens put similar efforts into Liberal-held seats, your statement
‘the primary enemy really lies elsewhere’
might carry some weight.”
Rocket , Greens suporters like operative Rod Hagen wish to deflect Labor from what Greens HAS been doing at Federal & State level ie via Greens popularism publicly and by smears on th ground direct to Voters attack Labor just as vicous as Liberals do
They wish to continue this ‘we is friends’ BS charade whilst concurently attacking Labor to pinch Labor votes & Labor seats , that IS there object and that is what Bob brown has said , as has Lindsay Tanner , so Rod Hagen’s continued slippery disengenous posts reflect this charade because Greens do not want Labor to turn blow torch on them when they hurt Labor by stealth
eg th lying Greens Tobacco pamplet in a LABOR seat that yesterday were forsed to withdraw and public admit was false , but Greens is still saying we is friends
Labors Vic & Federal problems show BOTH incompetant Abbott and Balleau winning Labor primary votes to Liberal Party , in large part caused by middle oz voters seeing Labor “in allianse’ with th Greens who such voters regard Greens as a turn off , and NOW a factor in helping chance of a Liberal State govt
Labor needs to copy Balleau cause mosdt greens will pref Labor anyway & over time win rest back whereas Grens wish to buy time “as frends” to pinch more labor votes and mor Labor Seats Greens BS game is up to some Senior ALP figures , Q is how many
In my – if the Nats win back Gippy East and no Greens and ends up at
ALP 44
LIB/NP 44
GRN 0
IND 0
which is a definite possibility – then what would happen? … given the mandated fixed 4 year terms in play
If Labor do go badly , I wonder if the Ballarat Stadium may have been the turning point, too blatant a pork barrel and too obviously a waste of money when there a lot of other things to spend money on.
BKH
parliament would have to sit .. and since neither side could form a majority, there would have to be a new election.
[If Labor do go badly , I wonder if the Ballarat Stadium]
I wouldn’t be surprised if that is a winner for them actually.
I disagree with those who compare the Brumby Government with the NSW Government.
In 2007 the NSW economy was slowing, and there was no clear indication from the Government on how it was going to deal with it. Also some of the people in the NSW Government were lets say on the nose
In 2010 Victorian Government while faced with some probelms actually is moving to address them in a forward looking manner
I actually think the Victorian Govenrment can only imporove, remembering there will be a number of new faces on the frontbench.
The Victorian economy is strong, something which cannot have be said for the NSW economy in 2007
81
The ALP would try and get a Coalition Speaker and vice-versa. The ALP would have 1st go at Government because of incumbency. In the likely event of it not working then there would be a successful vote of no confidence and in there was no new government formed then there would be a new election.
[
People who say “Labor should not have wasted resources fighting the Greens” – what are they advocating, that Labor should have just conceded the four inner city seats to the Greens, hoping that after that “concession” the Greens “leader” would come out and say “Thank you, at the next election we have no more territorial demands”
]
Hear, Hear!
Tied election 44-44
Tasmania had one 15-15 in 1955, then another election in 1956 which produced the same!
The Labor government stayed in power, and the house was expanded to 35 seats for the next election. It is one of the problems having an even number of seats in the lower house, and I think Qld and NSW have avoided this for a long time.
Madcyril
hear hear
(plus more labor primary votes wuld go TO y Liberals as is happening now at Fed & State levels , most wrongly only concentrate on labors lost primarys to th Hrens , and complete forget they also go from ALP TO th Liberal Party at both State & Federol polling results because of th swinging & middle oz voting public’s Labor/Greens allianse perseption
Ronster
[because of th swinging & middle oz voting public’s Labor/Greens allianse perseption]
You mean this alliance perception? 👿
Ballarat East won’t go to the Libs
Will everyone calm down…best case scenario ALP-4, worst case scenario -10 and Morwell in play.
Prahran primary vote Clem try 40% Glen…..FF preferences are one way to turn off the highest proportion of gay men in Victoria…..now the sex party- a local sex worker well known and articulate will pull 2-4% easily
My Victorian election predictions,
I expect the Liberals and Nats to hold all their seats.
Mount Waverley Liberal gain
Gembrook Liberal gain, but this could be the seat that defies the tide on the back of a strong local MP factor in Tammy Lobato. I predict a big increase in the Green vote.
Forest Hill Liberal gain, traditionally a Liberal seat
Mitcham Liberal gain, traditionally a swing seat, Tony Robinson can claim that he oversaw the removal of the Springvale Road Rail crossing at Nunawading
South Barwon Liberal gain, I am giving this one to the Liberals although I would not be surprised if Crutchfield held it, this sort of seat might see a big swing towards the Greens
Frankston ALP hold on the back of a number of local infrastructure projects (Victoria’s version of Mawson)
Mordialloc Liberal gain but this one could be very close
Prahran Liberal gain, I image the Liberals will need to poll at least mid-40s, The ALP v Greens for second spot will be close for some time. While we know that St Kilda East is solid Green vs ALP but what might be interesting will be how will the Greens poll in the more upmarket areas
Carrum ALP hold, This seat is only held by 6.7% on paper should be held by the ALP but if we see Mordialloc and Frankston swinging then this seat may well follow
Yan Yean ALP hold, suddenly everyone seems to be talking about this seat. I think this seat will be talked about not for changing but for having a much bigger swing than we may see in the marginal’s
Seymour ALP hold, before Black Saturday I expected the Liberals to win this seat on primaries. Ben Hardman has worked this seat really hard and based on how some of these booths behaved at the federal poll I suspect the ALP will hold
Bellarine ALP hold, I tip big swing to the Greens
Geelong ALP hold
Ivanhoe ALP hold, traditionally a marginal with a slight Liberal bent, I think if this seat falls we are clearly seeing a new Government, again i expect a big Green vote
Macedon 50/50 ALP hold, traditionally a Liberal seat, now with increasing Green vote, this is the sort of seat that I believe will see the ALP returned
Brunswick 50/50 ALP hold although my gut is telling me that this seat is looking like a green win, a lot will depend on how the Liberal voters react to the How to Vote cards
Richmond 50/50 ALP hold, I would not discount the Greens in this seat, both the ALP and Greens have a high profile present in Bridge Road and with Liberal preferences may just help the ALP hold
Melbourne Green win (I need a shower)
Footscray ALP hold
Burwood Liberals win but if they don’t then the odds are the Government has been returned
Ripon Joe Helper has proven me wrong twice, can he make it a hat trick, Trains have returned to Maryborough
Bendigo East ALP hold, Allan has been both a good local MP and good Minister and deserves to hold this traditional Liberal seat 50/50
Bendigo West Liberal gain due to it being without a sitting MP
Ballarat West Liberal gain due to no sitting MP factor plus there is no longer has the Bracks factor
Ballarat East ALP hold
ALP 44
Greens 1
Indi 1
Liberal/Nationals 42
Good grief! Maybe the rumour that Josephine Cafagna is Ted Baillieu’s love choild has some legs!
Or maybe she just fancies him?
Mooning, love lorn smiles and Dorothy Dixers for Ted, and scowls and frowns and agro Q’s for Brumby and Barber on Stateline tonight.
mexicanbeemer
Thanks for the summary. We shall see tomorrow if you are right 😉
My call:
1. Brumby holds on, just
2. Two out of Melbourne, Richmond and Brunswick fall to the Greens. (My guess is Melbourne and Brunswick)
3. Greens secure ongoing BOP in upper house, with 5 members.
4. VIC ALP brainstrust again gets random right wing extremist nutbar elected to upper house. Claims strategy “would have worked if our vote hadnt collapsed”
An informed Labor source expects Brunswick to go Green and Melbourne to go down to the wire, but Labor to hold Richmond. Mount Waverley, Gembrook, Forest Hill, South Barwon and Ripon expected to fall, and fears for Bellarine, Prahran and Bendigo East, but hopeful of holding Mitcham and Burwood. A “dunno” on Frankston and Mordialloc. On that assessment, it’s hard to see where the seats for a Liberal win are coming from.
video analysis re tomorrow’s election
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/special-reports/victorian-election-2010/election-video
William Bowe
Thanks for the inside word. That is somewhat reassuring.
I’m not going the BKH’s 44-44, but I think Labor 43- Green 2 -Ind 1-Coalition 42.
This is a similar outcome. If the Greens backed Labor, what would the independent (Ingram or someone else) do? Accept role as speaker?