Nielsen: 52-48 to Labor in Victoria; Newspoll 51-49

GhostWhoVotes informs us a state Nielsen poll in The Age has Labor with a two-party lead of 52-48, and that the Greens primary vote is steady on 16 per cent. More to follow.

UPDATE: We now also have Newspoll which puts Labor’s lead at 51-49, from primary votes of 37 per cent for Labor, 39 per cent Liberal and 5 per cent for the Nationals. The poll also shows a striking five point drop for the Greens to 14 per cent, which is coming off an all-time high and is not replicated in Nielsen. The two pollsters also give divergent impressions of John Brumby’s popularity: whereas Nielsen has his personal rating at plus 13 (approval 53 per cent, disapproval 40 per cent), Newspoll has it at minus six (42 per cent, 48 per cent). Newspoll also has Ted Baillieu at minus six (40 per cent, 46 per cent), while Nielsen has it at evens (45 per cent). Brumby has a slightly wider lead as preferred premier from Nielsen (53-37) than Newspoll (50-36). As was the case before the federal election, the Coalition’s supporters appear to be firmer in their intentions than Labor’s.

UPDATE 2: Full tables from the Nielsen poll here, courtesy of GhostWhoVotes.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

310 comments on “Nielsen: 52-48 to Labor in Victoria; Newspoll 51-49”

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  1. If the Brumby ALP Government is returned then I woul image that the the frontbench will look somewhat difference for a nuber of Ministers look like they may be defeated.

    Pike (Melbourne) Wynne (Richmond) Morand (Mount Waverley) Robinson (Mitcham) and with the retirements of Cameron (Bendigo West) and Batchlor (Thomastown)

  2. The regional / Rural seats that I think the Liberals may win are in the two seats with retiring MP’s Bendigo West & Ballarat West.

    Seymour is going to be close but I think Hardman may just hold on.

    People keep saying South Barwon but with an increasing Green vote and the fact that a high quality Liberal candidate could not win the overlapping federal seat then I think the ALP may just hold.

  3. blackburnpseph – I was looking more at the possible seat loses.

    If I was Premier I might move him to a difference portfolio but woudl keep him on the frontbench

  4. blackburn,

    There’s a difference.

    You make boldened statements, William will zap you, your post disappears and no one remembers.

    You make bold statements like some of your hopeful predictions, they stay on PB and you have to deal with the humiliation on election night.

    I’m not sure which is worse for you.

  5. Mexican

    Bendigo West is a safe Labor seat so that can’t be seen as an ALP loss, Jacinta Allen probably could not transfer as Bendigo East would then have probably been an ALP loss. Ballarat West a definite possibility – Seymour Ben Hardman’s chances are much better with the Libs stuffing up – that might open up to the Nats (who are running) or the independent Jan Beer.

  6. GG

    If I recall correctly, I was the only poster on this site who put Denison in the ‘seat to watch’ category before the Federal election. My earlier post on this thread was speculation not prediction – my feeling is that there are more seats in play than is generally thought.

  7. blackburn

    Planning is the toughest gig as a Minister. None of the reccent Ministers have escaped unscathed.

    Madden will take on another portfolio and succeed.

    Having been on the campaign trail wih Justin, he is hugely popular with the punters.

    It will be between him and Holding for the next Premier.

  8. Well if Peter Batchelor can be a minister for 11 years with a sum total achievement of zero, then Justin Madden is probably quite safe.

  9. blackburn,

    Re your predictive skills.

    If you had enough monkeys and enough typewriters, sooner or later one would type out Hamlet verbatim.

  10. GG

    Who was planning minister before Justin Madden? Was it Mary Delahunty or someone else? He has been there for a while.

  11. GG

    Having been on the campaign trail with Justin M does that mean somehow that your future and his future are intertwined?

  12. GG – What about the lovely J.Allan

    Down the track I could see the outstanding Roads Minister Tim Pallas or even Martin Pakula putting their hands up for the gig

  13. [People keep saying South Barwon but with an increasing Green vote …]

    Might well depend on how far Labor get up Green noses while trying to hold onto the inner city seats whether Green prefs would do the job for Labor in South Barwon, mexican. Labor can’t afford any substantial softening of preference flows in a seat like South Barwon if they are going to keep it.

    A statistic that would be interesting to see is the number of new voters coming into each electorate by virtue of reaching 18 over the last four years. The Neilsen poll shows they strongly support the Greens and in most cases they won’t have had a “history” of association with one or the other of the major parties beforehand. Goodness knows what they will do with their preferences!

  14. Rod

    The big – possibly unknown factor – in South Barwon is where all of those votes from the big new housing estates in Waurn Ponds and Torquay will go.

  15. GG

    Jacinta might be from the Left but so is Jules and Jacinta has proven to be very popular both as a Minister and as a locall MP

  16. blackburn,

    I’m a member of the ALP and attended a number of campaign related meetings and functions. All on my own time.

  17. Mexican

    It will be interesting to see how Jacinta A goes this time as she is in a marginal seat (5.4%) that had been Liberal a long time before she won it. If there is a swing in regional Vic she will be in the firing line.

  18. On further thought, Lisa Neville should definitely get the chop after the election. She has been a disaster in a difficult portfolio and probably made the political fallout worse.

  19. Bendigo East is the type of semi rural country seat that the Liberal Party would nomally win, Allan has done well to hold it up until now.

  20. Rocket Rocket
    Posted Sunday, November 14, 2010 at 2:02 pm | Permalink

    That’s the problem trying to dissect Greens’ policies from their websites – they are often filled with “parenthood” statements, with no attempt at costing or prioritising.

    But when Pegasus who seems to quote Greens web site only when it suits him

    Rocket Rocket
    Posted Sunday, November 14, 2010 at 12:04 pm | Permalink

    Pegasus What population do the Greens want in Australia long term?

    Posted Sunday, November 14, 2010 at 12:10 pm | Permalink
    I have no idea, Rocket Rocket. I am sure you can find out for yourself in the same way as I research for myself.

    so Greens want to cut immigraton , so instead of quoting Bob Brown motherhood generic coments , well again Q is to what figure

  21. GG

    “I never believe anything you assert either” – Leaving the snide and bitchy comments aside…

    Well you can’t be taken as 100% objective can you? If you had said that you were a Liberal or Greens member and that Justin Madden went down really well – that would carry more weight than being an ALP member. Would you be objective enough to say that ALP Minister X was electoral poison?

  22. My subjective view is that objectivity is in the eye of the beholder.

    And before the ATL prefs hit the fan, I will restate that Labor’s aim should be (if they form majority or minority government) to have as many paths as possible for getting legislation through the Upper House. If Labor do get 19 then as many lots of 2 as possible would be ideal

  23. blackburn,

    I always post the truth. You can believe what you want.

    “Bitchy and snide” is just your personal hypocrisy defence mechanisms creaking in to gear.

  24. Justin Madden has actually done a good job as Planning minister. yes he made a meaol of the Duke e-mail but I feel he has done a good job in a tough portfolio. 6/10

  25. Mex

    planning minister is a job that cn never please everyone

    (that serious Q’s is made of th Vic Labor Govt by Liberals & Greens here that by any econamic and social agenda is by far best in Country shows a level of bi partisien ship worse than even 1/2 objectivity)

  26. With the ALP putting the Greens before the DLP in Western Victoria, what chance do PBers think that Peter Kavanagh will be reelected?

  27. Interesting in itself that the Country Alliance are running in Northern Metro. Are Yan Yean and Seymour in North Metro? If I recall, the DLP prefs in north Metro are interesting in that Matthew Guy gets a gig early (but would be elected early) but the other Libs are way down.

Comments are closed.

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