Essential Research: 50-50

The latest weekly Essential Research survey finds the two parties still gridlocked at 50-50. Both parties are up a point on the primary vote – the Coalition to 45 per cent and Labor to 40 per cent – with the Greens down to 9 per cent. Both leaders’ personal ratings have improved slightly since before the election: Julia Gillard’s approval is down a point to 45 per cent and her disapproval down three to 37 per cent, while Tony Abbott is up two to 43 per cent and down seven to 37 per cent. However, Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is almost unchanged, up from 46-35 to 47-35. Fewer respondents now rate an election within 12 months as desirable – it’s now 43 per cent all, compared with 52 per cent supporting and 33 per cent opposed a fortnight ago – and there also fewer who deem it likely, although it’s still a clear majority at 59 per cent (down from 70 per cent a fortnight ago). More voters thought the media did a good (32 per cent) than a poor (23 per cent) job reporting the election and its aftermath, while Coalition supporters were found to be more likely to believe the media wasn’t fair to their side.

UPDATE: Some fine print reading from Bernard Keane in Crikey:

But in the wake of Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor deciding to back Labor, there’s now a much stronger party split on that issue, with 75% of Liberal voters calling for another election, compared to 65% a fortnight ago, whereas support for another election among Labor and Green voters has fallen dramatically, with more than 70% of Labor and Green voters not wanting another election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,064 comments on “Essential Research: 50-50”

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  1. [Is Somlyay a “Liberal” LNP or a “National” LNP?]

    He is a Howard man, through and through. As opposed to Slipper who was a Nat, then a Lib and now an LNP.

    Somlyay has been sick with cancer recently, he has already said he will retire at the next election. If he gets mucked about by Abbott he will throw hand grenades.

  2. [{@Pollytics @Colvinius The previously understood info about Somlyays position. Apparently the Coalition’s released statement was a mistake}]

    The plot thickens.

    Maybe Chris Toolman’s wrecking leaks will backfire?

  3. And while we’re casting around for a deputy speaker, what about my local member, Jensen?

    He is so obviously distant from the main stream of even his own party that he has been overlooked yet again for any shadow position, no matter how minor, he is an arrogant self important knob, he is used to pushing people around (given his background), he cut and run from his own country when things got awkward, so he’s used to cutting and running, he’s been around for a few terms now so he knows the ropes (presumably), and he owes Abbott no favours.

    An excellent all round choice.

    You are doubting my sincerity here, I hope.

  8. “{@Pollytics @Colvinius The previously understood info about Somlyays position. Apparently the Coalition’s released statement was a mistake}”

    sure was as i said earlier , it clearly conflicts with Agree and Labor’s offer

  10. [I prefer:

    “The Welsher” Tony Abbott;
    Tony “The Welsher” Abbott; and
    Tony Abbott “The Welsher”.]

    OzPol, what about Rabbott “Welsher” – sounds like a traditional rabbit dish, no?

  13. Anyway, what makes us think they will keep the 7.30 Report..

    They will probably introduce the Uhllman Half Hour on 24Hrs and, in line with their attitude to HD tech on ABC1, play video tapes of say, Skippy, in the 7.30 slot, as political comment.

    “There were, however, quite a few times when credibility was stretched to the limit, usually in scenes where Skippy had ‘conversations’ with her human counterparts. An example is the following exchange from ep. 64, ‘The Hikers’, where Skippy brings a dead snake to Jerry King:

    Skippy: Tchk tchk tchk.
    Jerry: What have you got there, Skip?
    Skippy: Tchk tchk tchk.
    Jerry: Why on earth would you kill this?
    Skippy: Tchk tchk tchk.
    Jerry: Alright, alright, I know you didn’t. It’s been killed with a stick.
    Skippy: Tchk tchk tchk.
    Jerry: Where did you find it, Skip?
    Skippy: Tchk tchk tchk.
    Jerry: No, don’t bother Sonny, he’s busy doing his classes. You and I will handle this.
    Skippy: Tchk tchk tchk.
    Jerry: Hasn’t got anything to do with the schoolteachers, has it Skip?
    Skippy: Tchk tchk tchk.
    Jerry: Did they kill it?
    Skippy: Tchk tchk tchk.
    Jerry: It didn’t bite one of them, did it Skip?
    Skippy: Tchk tchk tchk.
    Jerry: Ah, no! Must be real panic going on out there. Come on, Skip, you’ll have to show me where they are.

    “Although Scotty Denholm did a marvellous job training the animals, there are limits to what you can get a kangaroo to do. Often the actors can be noticed patting the kangaroo to get her to move, or holding her to prevent her moving. Use of clever camera work and skilful editing enhanced many of Skippy’s feats.

    Tony Bonner concurred: “The difficulty of working with a kangaroo is they have absolutely no mental capacity at all, they have no retention of thought process. To get the kangaroo to do what you required him to do in the script took patience, to just wait and get the shot that was needed of the kangaroo looking somewhere, of reacting or doing something. So it was difficult from that technical point of view to get the shots you needed. And of course for those little shots of turning a television on or off, or any of those other wonderful things that Skippy did, the old bottle-openers snuck into frame and did it.”

    Of the other animals, their ‘roles’ were usually confined to scenes in the bush or the quarantine area. Hector the emu, however, had some larger roles in a few episodes. “The emus were the worst because they were absolutely violent,” said Liza Goddard. “So what they had to do was give it half a bottle of whisky, this emu (Hector), and then it was OK. If they gave it a bottle of course it fell over drunk, and the next day had a hangover and was even worse.

    http://www.classicaustraliantv.com/Skippy.htm

  16. Johncanb way back at #3490:

    [The normally superficial Cut & Paste in the Australian has caught Mark Latham out on a election statistics error. Did some-one on Pollbludger notice Mark’s error, or have we been scooped by the Australian?
    ‘Lies, damned lies and Mark Latham in The Australian Financial Review:
    FOR a pedant, Sydney Morning Herald columnist Gerard Henderson makes a lot of mistakes. One in particular is so misleading it should not stand uncorrected. Earlier this month, Henderson claimed that “over 80 per cent of electors still give their primary vote to one of the two major parties”. Really? Statistics from the Australian Electoral Commission show a combined tally of 60.3 per cent. If, however, by two parties, Henderson actually means five, to give a Coalition figure, the percentage rises to 71.8, still well short of the 80 per cent benchmark. The percentage of electors who gave their primary vote to Labor was 33.4, barely a third of the nation.
    More statistics from the Australian Electoral Commission:
    VIRTUAL tally room. Election 2010. National totals. First preferences by party. Percentages. Australian Labor Party. 37.99. Coalition. 43.62. Total percentage of first preferences cast for ALP and Coalition. 81.61?.
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/pink-batts-in-every-roof-what-a-great-idea-now-why-didnt-we-think-of-doing-that/story-e6frg6zo-1225928595073 ]

    Don’t know if this has been covered, but Latham has arrived at his figures by dividing the number of votes by the number of enrolled voters. The Australian’s, and the AEC, are the number of votes divided by the total number of formal votes. Latham’s point is that you can’t proclaim 80 per cent have expressed confidence in the two-party system, as Gerard Henderson sought to do, using a figure which by its nature excludes people who voted informal or couldn’t be bothered voting at all. Though if I were him, I would have used a total population aged over 18 figure rather than the number of enrolled voters, which would have been both more logical (since he indeed notes that non-enrolment is the most efficient option for a disaffected) and better for his argument.

  17. [
    The previously understood info about Somlyays position. Apparently the Coalition’s released statement was a mistake
    ]

    From Possum
    [
    Sky reports that Somlyay does not want to be associated with the statement issues by Tony Abbott
    ]

    Holy cow batman!

  20. cheers geoffrey, Karma is alive and well this Friday, Abbott you are getting all you deserve wangker…time to celebrate this great news

  24. Laocoon
    If it wasn’t for the fact that I have to go to a firefighting trianing session soon I’d open a really good red on the strength of the Somlyay news.

  35. I’m sorry, but does this mean that Speaker still gets deciding vote on legislation if a tie, but Somlyay won’t support a no confidence motion, but does he get a deciding vote while in the chair.

  36. **Hypothetical**: in light of the LNPs shenanigans, whats to stop Jenkins stepping down for particularly tight votes and forcing Somylay into the chair – thus chopping a vote off the LNP?

    And even if the objection is that if Jenkins cant be speaker for any particular vote, then he oughtn’t be in the chamber: then how about scenario 2?

    If it all gets too difficult to run with LNP obstruction: whats to stop Jenkins simply resigning and forcing Somylay permanently into the chair, thus reducing the LNP to 73 and securing a 3-seat buffer for the govt? Hmmm?

    Just a speculation… Could this all blow back into Phoney’s face?

  37. Serious question. Wasn’t Somilay the guy who was accused of some financial or other impropriety before the election, but was staunchly defended and exculpated in every way by Abbott and the Libs?

    How are they going to be able to crucify him with it now?

  38. [So does this mean that the ALP are effectively 77?]

    Yep.

    They had 76 definates, Katter has also said he will support whoever forms Govt. So they lose Harry – makes it 75 but gain Alex makes it 77 again.

    Tony has 71 – 72 if Crook is included.

    So for all his political games this week he has lost out big time. 😆

  39. [great news,hoping tony has a massive dummy spit]
    mmmmm….who will make an appearance tonight on 7.30 report or Lateline smearing & snarling about Somylay?

  40. Their ABC is still reporting that Somalay will not back the Government.

    [His refusal is a blow for the Government, which is trying to preserve its two-seat majority in the Parliament.]

  42. “The Australian’s, and the AEC, are the number of votes divided by the total number of formal votes. Latham’s point is that you can’t proclaim 80 per cent have expressed confidence in the two-party system, as Gerard Henderson sought to do, using a figure which by its nature excludes people who voted informal who couldn’t be bothered voting at all.”

    Latham is stooping low , any figures gives one a result that suits bias , so incl unformal cast or total enrolled in theory is an argument However common sense woud say you calc % of primary votes won based solely on voters who did indeed cast a primary vote itself

  44. [Wasn’t Somilay the guy who was accused of some financial or other impropriety before the election…]

    No Somlyay as Whip raised many issues that were ignored by Abbott, including Johnson in Ryan.

  45. How long before the rag bag Coalition party room reconsiders Abbott’s leadership?

    How many more post election losses are required for them to tire of him and his self-described ‘cockroach’ deputy?

  48. [any figures gives one a result that suits bias , so incl unformal cast or total enrolled in theory is an argument However common sense woud say you calc % of primary votes won based solely on voters who did indeed cast a primary vote itself]

    Why?

  50. [I agree with my say:

    do away with show who needs it]

    Actually — lets just have Clarke and Dawe each night — their ‘summation’ is almost the same as the straight stories anyhoo. And at least they intend to be funny.

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