Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

The latest weekly Essential Research poll has Labor opening a 51-49 lead after 50-50 results over the previous two weeks, including the weekend of the election. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 39 per cent and the Coalition down one to 43 per cent, with the Greens steady on 11 per cent. The survey also finds a majority supporting a fresh election, 52 per cent to 33 per cent, with 42 per cent thinking minority government will deliver worse government against 30 per cent better, and 70 per cent thinking an election within the year likely against 16 per cent unlikely. This is contrary to the weekend’s JWS/Telereach poll which had only 26 per cent plumping for a new election against 37 per cent for a Labor and 31 a Coalition minority government – possibly this indicates you get different responses when a respondent can choose a minority government of their favoured party over a new election. The Newspoll targeting the three rural independents’ electorates shortly after the election found opinion evenly divided on the subject of a new election, which is perhaps less appealing to those whose local members are presently holding the balance of power.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,982 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. I actually think it’s good the way he’s ticking through the process they used.

    This is the transparency bit I was hoping we’d get.

  2. I think they should be required to show their workings so I appreciate the length of the press conference. Better than cut and run.



  4. I’m watching live in Thailand. Thanks to the Aussie people – we’ll get the best parliament in a long time. More indies next election please.

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