The latest weekly Essential Research poll has Labor opening a 51-49 lead after 50-50 results over the previous two weeks, including the weekend of the election. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 39 per cent and the Coalition down one to 43 per cent, with the Greens steady on 11 per cent. The survey also finds a majority supporting a fresh election, 52 per cent to 33 per cent, with 42 per cent thinking minority government will deliver worse government against 30 per cent better, and 70 per cent thinking an election within the year likely against 16 per cent unlikely. This is contrary to the weekend’s JWS/Telereach poll which had only 26 per cent plumping for a new election against 37 per cent for a Labor and 31 a Coalition minority government – possibly this indicates you get different responses when a respondent can choose a minority government of their favoured party over a new election. The Newspoll targeting the three rural independents’ electorates shortly after the election found opinion evenly divided on the subject of a new election, which is perhaps less appealing to those whose local members are presently holding the balance of power.
We’re commmming back!
happy birthday again pesphos
Cud
this is the bit I was talking about. Thats where I think the ‘pairing’ could be worked out.
[Section 50 – Rules and orders
Each House of the Parliament may make rules and orders with respect to-
(i.) The mode in which its powers, privileges, and immunities may be exercised and upheld:
(ii.) The order and conduct of its business and proceedings either separately or jointly with the other House.
]
Thanks you My Say.
Head Mr Windsor on the radio coming home, was asked about the 75-75 scenario and whether the other one would automatically follow. He said not automatically, as they would have to discuss the best way to stable government. They are meeting this afternoon to find out each other’s position. I took a little comfort fromwhat he was saying, as I believe he knows the best outcome would be a labor minority government.
The coalition are very eager to point out that Wilkie is a former Greens candidate and yet not so keen to point out he was a Liberal member.
It bothers me that after 2 weeks the 3 Indies still have not made up their mind. What is it going to be like in a slightly controversial Legislation, they will crack up. I am totally disappointed in these Indies.
[Muskiemp
Posted Monday, September 6, 2010 at 2:59 pm | Permalink
It bothers me that after 2 weeks the 3 Indies still have not made up their mind. What is it going to be like in a slightly controversial Legislation, they will crack up. I am totally disappointed in these Indies.]
The ALP do not have a legislative agenda, the Libs have one the parli wont pass.
The role of the Indies beyond supply will be limited.
It will be interesting to see Katter on Q&A tonight. I wonder if he will be able to keep quiet on who they are backing?
[blackdog
Posted Monday, September 6, 2010 at 3:01 pm | Permalink
It will be interesting to see Katter on Q&A tonight. I wonder if he will be able to keep quiet on who they are backing?]
I don’t why he would bother going on.
Pairing is an unofficial arrangement which wouldn’t be included in the Standing Orders.
[ltep
Posted Monday, September 6, 2010 at 3:02 pm | Permalink
Pairing is an unofficial arrangement which wouldn’t be included in the Standing Orders.]
But the indies want to enshrine it to ensure greater stability.
blue-green, the alp has a legislative agenda
A bit off topic – but interesting to me – I talked to a rusted on liberal voter who doesn’t follow politics just to get a sense of what they thought about the election.
3 interesting things:
– BER they said they had only heard 7-8 billion of waste but didn’t believe it was quite that high (but obviously up there in the many billions was the unspoken bit)
– the costings hole of the coalition – perfectly acceptable and what would you expect when they don’t have access to proper resources
– batts were a total waste of money and didn’t provide any benefits they knew of
Interestingly – aligned with his actual views – should be a labor voter – but never will of course.
# Happy birthday psephos
BG
He might be a late scratching, like when Julia pulled Mark Arbib off.
This opinion is not new. But thinking over this long delay, I now think it’s obvious that there’s a 2-1 split between the 3 amigos. And they know which one is the odd one out. And since there’s talk of 75-75, it must be that 2 are leaning LNP and 1 ALP
But which one is the ALP standout?
If the indies weren’t persuaded by the Coalition’s costing fiasco, they’re probably not coming over to Labor.
I’d just finished (c2.51-2) a timeline for Newspoll (actual collection dates Friday 27 Aug -Sunday 29 Aug), Windsor’s “black hole” (Lateline Wed 2nd), Wilkie’s announcement (mid-arvo Thurs 2) and posted it because there had been two posts in which assumptions re the effects of Windsor’s & Wilkies’ decisions did not tally with its collection dates …
That thread bounced it (2.53 when I checked) so it’s in cyberspace somewhere! 🙁
Regarding the election result and polls, at this point it is clear that it will be virtually identical to 50/50 2PP, regardless of teh counting of the final few votes. In that case, the Essential Research poll on election eve was spot on. How did the others go? Of those who do State splits, who was best? Just curious.
[sprocket_
Posted Monday, September 6, 2010 at 3:06 pm | Permalink
blue-green, the alp has a legislative agenda]
Without being too facetious I am not sure if they need to legislate ‘moving forward’.
Their agenda was simply a subset of the 2007 promises yet to be delivered (trades centres etc), some qld/western sydney infra-pork and not being tony abbott. A citizens assembly doesnt need legislating either.
I think the Indies have made up their minds. The Indies must be seen to have given the matter independent and plenty of thought.
If Katter shows his hand first, and elects Gillard, the other two will have more justification to support Labor, for a stable government, yet maintain their independence.
I can’t see how they could possibly side with Abbott. It is impossible for him to deliver a greater budget surplus than Labor, as he claims, and keep his election promises.
If Rudd was kept to such high account to keep his election promises, Abbott should be held to the same account.
C’mon Indies, do the right and only fair thing!
Is there any restriction on how many times within, say, a six month period the Opposition is allowed to pull a no-confidence motion????
Abbott will be terribly lucky – and undeserving – if he inherits a healthy economy wiith unemplyment dropping and inflation easing.
Interesting poll from Essential with 70% thinking a new poll likely within a year. Haven’t they heard of the SA and Vic experience with hung parliaments.
I wonder if GhostWhoVotes would have any idea of who is behind the Parker & Partners poll out in the OO this morning. Sounds like the Coalition might have been doing a bit of spruiking?!!
Sprocket
I was wrong. There is the mining tax. I assume that needs substantial legislation.
[rosa
Posted Monday, September 6, 2010 at 3:11 pm | Permalink
Is there any restriction on how many times within, say, a six month period the Opposition is allowed to pull a no-confidence motion????]
I wouldnt think so.
[But the indies want to enshrine it to ensure greater stability]
Ill advised. What if a future government set up standing orders to deprive members of the Opposition of votes on the floor? I’d wonder if parliamentary privilege extends to protection of the rights of members to a vote (apart from the Speaker). It’ll be an informal arrangement in the end.
hmmm… I think I’ll just let that one go past the keeper… 😉
BH
Parker and Partners are coalition aligned.
Anyway only a handfull of pollsters can get a balanced poll and P&P aren’t one of them.
[Abbott will be terribly lucky – and undeserving – if he inherits a healthy economy wiith unemplyment dropping and inflation easing.]
That’s my sadness if they go with Abbott. He will be rewarded for doing not much and will thereafter be able to blame Labor’s debt for anything he puts off doing.
He doesn’t deserve to get it all so easily.
[Is there any restriction on how many times within, say, a six month period the Opposition is allowed to pull a no-confidence motion????]
No and there shouldn’t be. Canadian precedent has seen governments prorogue the Parliament to avoid defeat on confidence motions.
Oh NO they’ve called in Barnaby
NATIONALS Senator Barnaby Joyce today issued a last-ditch plea for the support of rural independents as he conceded Labor was in the box seat.
Senator Joyce called on the three men to put their issues with the National Party aside and back the Coalition, arguing that their electorates are “crystal clear” in favourite of a conservative government.
Pairing
The current practice of pairing is purely conventional – it has no basis in the Standing Orders.
The whips of the major parties maintain pairs books in which they agree between themeselves who will voluntarily absent themselves from a vote.
If a pair was to be agreed and then one of the pairs came into the chamber and voted there could be no legal comeback. Although in general there would be a moral comeback in future votes. in a hung parliament pairing can become mor eimprotant and tense.
As I commented on before in this blog, when the UK parlaiment found itself with a government with a one seat majority the oppoition refused to provide pairs. the government was redcued to bring members who were in hospital in via ambulances on crucial votes.
[Parker and Partners are coalition aligned.]
Well why wasn’t it made clear today that they’ve done the poll for Abbott. Surely the OO wouldn’t pay for a pollster other than Newspoll.
Itep do both sides need to agree to an alteration of standing orders or does majority rule?
The delay is just as likely to be about securing new parliamentary rules from the majors as about any “split” in the indies.
We just dont know.
Pica
Yes that was a bad choice of words wasn’t it.
Gecko, it’s just a majority of the chamber.
Geck – majority rules, but you’d still need the Fibs/ ALP to play ball on pairing arrangements even with a majority.
[Interestingly – aligned with his actual views – should be a labor voter – but never will of course.]
Does he have a white collar job, quite a number of voters will not vote Labor because they think it will align them with the “working class”, ie: their Snobs!.
Re (last thread) Hundreds evacuated as Wallaroo silo burns
I’m still not entirely sure why some think Katter would be more likely to go with Labor than say Windsor.
Katter definitely doesn’t like the ETS/carbon tax or the mining tax for one thing.
If they’re split 2:1 my bet is O+W for Labor, K for Fiberals.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/the-new-balance-of-power/2008/03/05/1204402553161.html?page=3
[Another serious player in the lobbying game, Parker and Partners — a firm with a reputation for maintaining close links with the Liberal Party and for its dedication to the cheerful duchessing of politicians and journalists — maintains an impressive client list]
This opinion is not new. But thinking over this long delay, I now think it’s obvious that there’s a 2-1 split between the 3 amigos. And they know which one is the odd one out. And since there’s talk of 75-75, it must be that 2 are leaning LNP and 1 ALP
But which one is the ALP standout?]
After listening to Windsor this afternoon I don’t think that can be assumed.
[
A poll from Parker and Partners is almost reliable and one from HawkerBritton atm.
Re the Wallaroo silos
[grey
Posted Monday, September 6, 2010 at 1:22 pm | Permalink
Wallaroo silos on fire, evacuation for a 3 k radius, I’m gone, dog and family]
Hope everything is under control, grey.
The good news is my mum just won 1400 in tatts lotto. 5 numbers… she’s a pensioner and almost had a coronary… I need to get her a sherry. Nice to chat as always.
Darn,
What did Windsor say today?
Darn, why what did Windsor say this arvo?
No, Blackdog 37, funniest thing I’ve read all day! I do love a good double entendre 🙂