Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

The latest weekly Essential Research poll has Labor opening a 51-49 lead after 50-50 results over the previous two weeks, including the weekend of the election. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 39 per cent and the Coalition down one to 43 per cent, with the Greens steady on 11 per cent. The survey also finds a majority supporting a fresh election, 52 per cent to 33 per cent, with 42 per cent thinking minority government will deliver worse government against 30 per cent better, and 70 per cent thinking an election within the year likely against 16 per cent unlikely. This is contrary to the weekend’s JWS/Telereach poll which had only 26 per cent plumping for a new election against 37 per cent for a Labor and 31 a Coalition minority government – possibly this indicates you get different responses when a respondent can choose a minority government of their favoured party over a new election. The Newspoll targeting the three rural independents’ electorates shortly after the election found opinion evenly divided on the subject of a new election, which is perhaps less appealing to those whose local members are presently holding the balance of power.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,982 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. 1934pc @40 – yep white collar but absolutely no problems with snobbery.
    My best guess is that I think it is just that they don’t believe Labor can manage the economy. The Whitlam years, the recession we had to have and the constant reminders by the media have just made this a fact. (Regardless of the facts of course).

  2. Darn
    From that interivew did you get the impression that he wanted a stable labor minority government, or did you read it differently. That’s the impression I got.

  3. [Sprocket

    I was wrong. There is the mining tax. I assume that needs substantial legislation.
    ]

    – medicare rebate caps
    – health reform enablers
    – taxation sweetners
    – offshore processing in East Timor
    – cash for clunkers etc

    all need legislation to pass both houses

  4. I reckon the Indies will all side with the same Party.

    They must if Abbott is to hold a majority. Or if they do the just thing and go with Julia, there will be a more stable parliament.

    How could they not choose Labor;
    – NBN,
    – better health care,
    – no phoney costings,
    – no stop the boats crap.

    It will be a joke if they pick Abbott!

  5. Someone earlier suggested the Indies should give a detailed explanation of their decision.
    They probably will .

    I wonder if anyone would be brave enough to suggest:
    Labor’s ruling clique should give a detailed and understandable explanation of their decision:-
    a. To dump Rudd.
    b. To go to an early election.
    Even if the call was made, they probably wouldn’t

  6. [ I don’t why he would bother going on. ]

    For our entertainment, you just wait it will be a mixture of a jaw dropping lack of political correctness, combined with a lot of totally whacko , and a little straight talking …. ok make that rambling mostly incoherently. The interaction between Minchin and Katter should be as good as the interaction between the green and Katter. If only they could have got Elliot and Tuckey as well.

  7. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/breaking-news/reform-deal-could-be-struck-soon-says-independent-rob-oakeshott/story-fn3dxiwe-1225914860610

    Indies announce 3 votes for Labor at say, 5 o’clock?

    Hints that one had to go against inclination to line up with other two in the national interest. General public will assume that’s Bob Katter though it can be spun any way to suit individual circumstances.

    In reality IMO all 3 were pro JG government from the start but gave due process.

    How’s Bob Katter’s poker face – anyone know?

    Upcoming anti-Labor memes:

    Recklessly signed onto all indies proposals without checking detail
    Black hole in promises
    Any instability is Labor’s fault
    Any election in next 12 months is Labor’s fault
    PM leaving country in lurch by attending international “talk-fest”
    Secret deal to bring back tariffs
    Unsafe working practices rushing out NBN – Daughter of Pink Batts
    Greens “anti-American”, country undefended

  8. [Someone earlier suggested the Indies should give a detailed explanation of their decision.
    They probably will .]

    If they pick Abbott, it will be “one” crazy explanation.

  9. [This opinion is not new. But thinking over this long delay, I now think it’s obvious that there’s a 2-1 split between the 3 amigos. And they know which one is the odd one out. And since there’s talk of 75-75, it must be that 2 are leaning LNP and 1 ALP

    But which one is the ALP standout?]

    Yes, that is one possibility, and I would imagine Oakeshott would be the “standout” in such a situation, and probably hard to move from his position. In such a scenario either or both of the others might vacillate though unless they had some sort of “one for all and all for one” majority rules agreement.

    But there are other possibilities. Another that would result in a “tie” would be one being prepared to commit to the coalition while the other two were planning to abstain.

    I do find myself wondering how much notice to take of their “chatter” generally though. They are regularly being put in the position where they need to be seen to be saying ‘something”, and I guess rambling on about the “possibilities” is one way of doing that without really saying anything at all.

    Is it possible that they are actually waiting for something else altogether? An answer to a particular question? A determination in Corangamite because it is listed as a “close seat”? A clearer indication of the 2PP? A delay to drag something particular out of one party or another? etc etc. Something that will make whatever their decision is easier to “sell” in their own electorates? Who knows?

  10. And of course there is the unfinished business which didn’t get through the last parliament – such as the extension of the dental health scheme.

  11. I now think it’s obvious that there’s a 2-1 split between the 3 amigos.

    Please state why it is obvious there is a split.

    KOW have had a program to get through. Today there has been/ may still is an impass as to whether the coal will agree to the changes they want in HOR. Labor has already agreed.

    This arvo *final* talks where to be had with Gillard and abbott. THEN the three are scheduled to get together and go through their check lists and THEN discuss what to do.

    They may announce tonight, they may not. They may find something needs reference back to Labour or the Libs or both.

    Nothing factual to suggest any split at all. Just calm down and wait like everyone else.

  12. Soc
    [Sometimes I’m not sure if she can tell her right from her left!}

    There is no left or right anymore.

    We are in a new politcal paradigm.

    Its either ‘moving forward’ or ‘stop the boats’

  13. [- cash for clunkers etc]
    The Indies will have done a service to the nation if they can get Labor to drop this dud policy. In the long term it doesn’t even help the auto industry. With the domestic economy recovering it is unneccessary, and 75% of the cars people buy are foreign made anyway. Just put a rego penalty on high emission vehicles if you really want to reduce emissions.

  14. [a detailed and understandable explanation of their decision:-
    a. To dump Rudd.]

    I’ve given this about 20 times, in a way that would be impossible for any politician to do, particularly since Rudd will be a member of any new Labor Cabinet. No-one chose to believe me, so I’m not bothering to give it again.

  15. This should be fun

    [TommyTudehope Ohh noooo RT @jodiespeers: I wonder what everyone’s favourite Uncle (Wilson T) is talking about in Perth today? Dstop on his lawn at 1pm WST ]

  16. [ The reason was that Labor had ‘lost its way’ ]

    Labor’s ruling clique just use slogans to explain it. How Abbottesque of them.

  17. BH @ 3133 wrote:
    [Bernard Keane pointing out the Howard Govt. waste. Labor had heaps of answers to Abbott’s ’stop the waste’ if only they’d had the wherewithal to use them. ]
    This is the main reason Labor did so badly, IMHO. The Government just couldn’t/wouldn’t defend its record. Rudd’s stupid mea culpa on insulation being the worst example.

    Incidentally, on the batts, a friend has pointed out that there have been about 200 fires in the 1.1 million homes that received the batts which is an incredibly good record considering that there about 10,000 fires annually and the national housing stock is around 8 million dwellings. So there have been some 1,175 fewer fires than expected in the insulated homes! If only Albanese had hit Oakes with that (and Possum’s data too) when the latter bought up the batts ‘debacle’ yesterday. But of course Albo couldn’t because Rudd had already conceded that it was indeed a debacle.

  18. [Upcoming anti-Labor memes:

    Recklessly signed onto all indies proposals without checking detail
    Black hole in promises
    Any instability is Labor’s fault
    Any election in next 12 months is Labor’s fault
    PM leaving country in lurch by attending international “talk-fest”
    Secret deal to bring back tariffs
    Unsafe working practices rushing out NBN – Daughter of Pink Batts
    Greens “anti-American”, country undefended]

    Punna has seen the proofs for all of this weeks’ Australian!

  19. blue green
    [There is no left or right anymore.

    We are in a new politcal paradigm.

    Its either ‘moving forward’ or ’stop the boats’]
    To quote the inspired originator of Labor’s line:
    ‘We must go forward, not backward. Upward, not forward. And always twirling, twirling, twirling towards freedom.”

    I’m sure Kodos would have voted for Julia. For that matter, Kodos could be Julia!

  20. Bob Katter’s been looking pretty uncomfortable in the footage I’ve seen … I reckon he’s the odd one out … I suspect he’s pro-coalition and the other two are pro-Labor.

  21. [No-one chose to believe me, so I’m not bothering to give it again.]

    I believed you!

    and ltep

    [Stab in the dark – tomorrow at 4.30 pm.]

    see mine @59 …. 5pm today 🙂

  22. [Peter Young
    Posted Monday, September 6, 2010 at 3:40 pm | Permalink
    The reason was that Labor had ‘lost its way’ ]

    [Labor’s ruling clique just use slogans to explain it. How Abbottesque of them.]

    They should have sung it:

    “I once was lost… but now am found
    was blind… but now can see”

  23. [Bob Katter’s been looking pretty uncomfortable in the footage I’ve seen … I reckon he’s the odd one out … I suspect he’s pro-coalition and the other two are pro-Labor.]

    His meetings yesterday would seem to suggest that…

  24. AlexHawkeMP At OLOR hall opening , Kellyville. The Catholic system got the BER implementation so right #hillsdistrict
    1 minute ago via mobile web

    WTF, this probably says it all!

  25. BLUE-GREEN / ITEP: I’m not sure you’re entirely right. It would create massive instability of Tone kept pulling a non-confidence motion. Nobody could go to the bathroom, etc etc.

    I think a lot of parliaments do have a restriction on how many times it can be pulled.

  26. [Why should people who can least afford a new car be slugged with higher rego fees?

    Cash for clunkers was not a bad policy!]

    I’ve now got $2000 bucks, now to go and another $12000 to get from A to B?????

    where’s the sence in that?.

  27. Did I read somewhere that Katter stayed at the Rudd Canberra residence for the weekend – if true, I find that very interesting.

  28. [I think a lot of parliaments do have a restriction on how many times it can be pulled.
    ]

    I’m reminded of the non-ending fillibusters they do in the US Seante and Japanese Diet – if you want to disrupt proceedings, and you have a leg in with the numbers or rules such as 60% majority to move a motion, then you can do it

  29. [ It would create massive instability of Tone kept pulling a non-confidence motion. Nobody could go to the bathroom, etc etc.]

    Yep

    [I think a lot of parliaments do have a restriction on how many times it can be pulled.]

    Not ours.

  30. I reckon that Katter’s elecctorate would forgive him for siding with Labor, but they WILL NOT forgive him if he doesn’t bring home any pork. They’ve supported an impotent (figuratively speaking) member for years. Now they expect their reward.

  31. Has anyone seen any report where we have offered assistance to the Kiwi’s with the earthquake etc ?

    Surely we have offered assistance, but have not seen any reports of it.

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