Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

The latest weekly Essential Research poll has Labor opening a 51-49 lead after 50-50 results over the previous two weeks, including the weekend of the election. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 39 per cent and the Coalition down one to 43 per cent, with the Greens steady on 11 per cent. The survey also finds a majority supporting a fresh election, 52 per cent to 33 per cent, with 42 per cent thinking minority government will deliver worse government against 30 per cent better, and 70 per cent thinking an election within the year likely against 16 per cent unlikely. This is contrary to the weekend’s JWS/Telereach poll which had only 26 per cent plumping for a new election against 37 per cent for a Labor and 31 a Coalition minority government – possibly this indicates you get different responses when a respondent can choose a minority government of their favoured party over a new election. The Newspoll targeting the three rural independents’ electorates shortly after the election found opinion evenly divided on the subject of a new election, which is perhaps less appealing to those whose local members are presently holding the balance of power.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,982 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. [ABC News 24 headline: Tony Windsor’s decision means coalition cannot form government.

    Beautiful words!

    grey: you can cry, now.]

    The ABC will cry harder than Grey.

  2. Oh happpy happy day. A near death experience then a second chance and one for the true believers to grab hold of and build into something for the country. Thank you Bludgers for being here during this, the longest Grand Final in history.

  3. William is talking a lot of sense, like always! 🙂
    Gee, some of you need to calm down!
    Of course Oakeshot wouldn’t go against Windsor.
    I tell ya, this blog is enough to do anyone’s head in with all the conspiracy theories – some of which admittedly have come from this end over the past few weeks. 😉

  4. [wilkie might change back to make it 75 v 75!!!]

    Yeah, so he can force another election and risk losing his seat and importance. Sure.

  5. Now the real fun begins – the reappearance of Real Abbott, the Liberal meltdown and the collective dummyspit from News Ltd & the ABC. 😀

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