News Limited have unloaded what they had promoted, accurately I believe, as “the largest opinion poll ever conducted in Australia” – a 4000-sample monster covering four marginal seats in each mainland state. This poll has been dubiously reported, thanks to a national total calculation which has credited the Coalition with a 51.4 per cent two-party vote. This appears to be a straight average of the five states’ results provided by Galaxy, without regard to population relativities between the states or the fact that the seats targeted were 2 per cent weaker for Labor than the national total in 2007. A balanced appraisal of the results points to a swing of about 1.7 per cent, which would produce a national Labor two-party vote of 51 per cent if consistent – slightly at the lower end of the recent phone poll trend. The poll shows a 2.4 per cent swing to the Liberals in the NSW seats of Eden-Monaro, Gilmore, Macarthur and Macquarie; a 1.6 per cent swing to Labor in Corangamite, Deakin, La Trobe and McEwen in Victoria; a 5.4 per cent swing to the Liberal National Party in Bowman, Dawson, Dickson and Flynn in Queensland; a 2.1 per cent swing to the Liberals in Hasluck, Stirling, Cowan and Swan in Western Australia; and no swing at all in Boothby, Grey, Kingston and Sturt in South Australia.
The rub for Labor is that the New South Wales and Queensland swing figures are right where they need to be to maximise the Coalition seat haul in uniform swing terms: over the 4.5 per cent mark needed for a tenth seat in Queensland, and just reaching the threshold that would cost them seven seats in New South Wales (it would take a further 1.5 per cent to bag an eighth). A straight loss of this many seats would single-handedly cost Labor the election. With no swing recorded in South Australia, the only counterbalancing gains would be the two Liberal marginals in Victoria, La Trobe and McEwen. The result would be a bare absolute majority for the Coalition.
However, any haul of 17 seats in New South Wales and Queensland would have to include a few they are generally expected to retain, such as Eden-Monaro and Page. Possibly some of the seats selected for the poll are a bit unflattering for Labor. There is a concentration of western Sydney in the NSW sample, an area yesterday’s poll of four seats for the Daily Telegraph showed to be tough for Labor (it appears Galaxy have conducted separate polls for Macarthur for each release). The Queensland sample also includes Bowman, which Labor has probably written off (UPDATE: Mark Bahnisch at Larvatus Prodeo says “Labor is barely running a campaign, with reports appearing for weeks in the Brisbane Times that their candidate is invisible, and the local papers can’t get hold of her for an interview”). Note that for all the vastness of Galaxy’s total national sample, as far as all-important Queensland is concerned the results are less sturdy than yesterday’s Newspoll, which targeted eight Queensland seats rather than four and 1600 respondents rather than 800. That poll produced a swing of 3.4 per cent against Labor compared with Galaxy’s 5.4 per cent, which in uniform swing terms would mean a difference of no fewer than four seats.
The table below shows swings recorded in state-level Newspolls and Nielsens through the first three weekends of the campaign (with one Westpoll thrown in for good measure), plus the targeted polling we have seen over the current weekend. For the former, samples for any given observation are 765 for NSW, 665 for Victoria, 585 for Queensland, 465 for WA (865 in week three, achieved by throwing in the Westpoll result) and 445 in SA, producing margins of error ranging from 4.6 per cent in South Australia’s case to 3.6 per cent for New South Wales. The composite of the most recent two Nielsen figures has smaller samples of around 250 for the smallest states. The latest Galaxy polls have samples of 800 per state and margins of error of about 3.5 per cent. The Newspoll marginals poll had samples of 600 in Victoria (4 per cent margin of error), 1200 in New South Wales (2.8 per cent margin of error) and 1600 in Queensland (2.5 per cent margin of error).
| TOTAL | NSW | VIC | Qld | WA | SA | ||
| Week 1 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 3.7 | -3.8 | 0.1 | 4.0 | |
| Week 2 | -3.6 | -9.1 | 1.7 | -3.3 | -2.9 | 0.4 | |
| Week 3 | -2.0 | -1.8 | -1.8 | -5.5 | -3.4 | 4.4 | |
| Nielsen (2 week) | -1.7 | -2.7 | 3 | -3.4 | -2.7 | 0.6 | |
| Galaxy marginals | -1.7 | -3.1 | 1.6 | -5.4 | -2.1 | 0 | |
| Newspoll marginals | 0.6 | -1.3 | 6.2 | -3.4 |
UPDATE: Remiss of me not to have noted when the poll was conducted: from Sunday to Thursday, and hence not as timely as some of the more favourable recent polling for Labor.
Another town hall forum would be ok as long as Abbott and Gillard are on the stage at the same time.
cheers
@287 JWS Research and Telereach are conservative operations…
http://www.ntnews.com.au/article/2010/08/03/169231_ntnews.html
blue_green@327
There should be about a million rants just like yours right in Gillard’s face. Her approach to our CC policy has weakened our moral authority internationally, and also damages us economically the longer this carbon non-policy farce continues. That’s the main reason for an informal vote in the Reps – just a vote for a hung Senate.
Just been polled by a computer voice. Seems like Hal is now running the election.
@ 339 blue-green
You’re right. Far too little money. And under Howard no community group was allowed any money unless they provided a photo opportunity for the local member, so planting a few plants by schoolkids checkmated large scale planning or strategy making every time.
Neither Lib or Lab understand the environmental imperatives. Why else would Ferguson et al have ministries…
[I hope if the ALP consider this they are much more on top of audience/question selection.]
There is no way the ALP should concede to the Rooty hill format. Abbott did not concede to a debate on the economy now he wants it in his format. Tell him to get stuffed.
Complete Bullshit. ALP will win comfortably with reduced majority – with 79-76 seats.
[Just been polled by a computer voice…]
Friggin Workchoices – does the Computer get Sunday penalties. 🙂
Antony Green
If you are lurking around, thanks very much for posting your analysis here last night, during what must be a peak work time for you!
The strength of media support has elevated the Rabbott to Coalition hero status. Where would he be now without News Ltd?
[A lopsided Man runs fastest along the little sidehills of success]
*F.M. Colby
something for the fibotariat to ponder
Libs will not win Bennelong – John Alexander is a dud candidate for that seat. They should’ve preselected him for Lindsay!
Diogenes@268……..the Rooty Hill straw poll was: Julia 59 / Rabbott 71 / Undecided 70……Hardly a ringing endorsement of Rabbott…..
Laocoon @ 341,
The point I was making is that the media focus on Rudd has dropped right off since he started campaigning in the marginals.
Of course there is a heavy Labor campaign focus on the marginals as that is where the election is either won or lost.
It’s just that the media quickly realised Rudd’s value to Labor in this regard and have chopped their previous intense interest in whatever Rudd does to almost nothing.
That certainly doesn’t change Labor’s focus on the marginals but takes their most potent weapon somewhat out of the equation if they virtually eliminate the Rudd focus factor.
Looking at the detailed analysis that the Adelaide Sunday Mail has given on the Galaxy.
The front page headline “17 KEY SEATS SURGE TO LIBS” is so misleading it’s bordering on lying.
[Sympathies go out to you, blue_green. Rant away.
I spent a number of years supporting land for wildlife, road corridors, etc., but then a large org would stride in, get the “contract’ and bleed funding from small volunteer groups. This private contract nonsense is lib supported and kills volunteerism.
Writing strategies and submissions is the bureaucratic way of wasting the time of volunteers.
My other thought is that the money won’t be nearly enough.]
Thanks Lizzie,
The constant changing of so-called national priorities is the worst thing any govt can do to kill off volunteers and enthusiasm from private landholders.
The standard conversation between a catchment managment authority (CMA) and a landholder (LH).
LH: Hi I would like some help to work out what I can do to help wildlife on my property?
CMA: OK, do you have any spotted-tail burrowing frog habitat?
LH: Huh.
CMA: OK, what about grassy-blue black box endangered ecological communities or their surrogates?
LH: um.
CMA: Any JAMBA or CAMBA species?
LH: Aahh.
CMA: What about the speckled grass nerd? There is a chance we could fund work for that when it is listed by under the EPBC act. Its in front of the scientific committee at them moment. We are expecting a preliminary determination soon. I’ll let you know.
LH: Is fencing off the river a good idea? My neighbour told me it would help the platypuses.
CMA: Oh, we cant help you with that any more. That used to be a priority under our CAP the government made us write but as it is not in the new CFOC business plan we cant help with that now.
LH: What trees should I plant for the koalas I have at my place. I am next to a National Park you know.
CMA: I am sorry we don’t give advice anymore. It is an inefficient use of public resources and doesn’t provide any measurable outcomes. And that is what we are after you see. Oh and by the way if you do have koalas (are you sure they were koalas?) you will have to apply to the government for a threatened species license to plant those trees. Here is the form. Its only 12 pages plus all the attachments you need to add. You will probably need to hire a consultant to help you fill that out.
LH. Oh well. Thanks for your help.
William this is more believable then the statewide/national polls. At this stage of Th campaign you can only go off a targeted marginal seat poll. A national poll would be seriously flawed as the swings are clearly not even.
What was the extent of undecided in each of the seats?
[certainly doesn’t change Labor’s focus on the marginals but takes their most potent weapon somewhat out of the equation if they virtually eliminate the Rudd focus factor.]
but would the locals know he is there in their electorate
Not that another debate or ‘forum’ is required, but it is rather amusing to see Abbott calling for another forum, when the basis of his refusal to have a debate on the economy, as it was explained by Andrew Robb at great length, was that his schedule was chock a block and could not be possibly changed because people all around the country were relying on Abbott turning up; these things have to be planned a long way out etc etc.
[urther to my previous comment. Stuff the Rabbott. Gillard was gracious enough to accept the Rooted Hill debacle on the Rabbott’s terms. This time she should dictate the terms.]
If Julia agrees then it should be in Vic. Labor heartland.
@DemocracyatWork/365
How can this poll be more believable than nation wide ?
This will be like a poll that was recently done with two Coalition seats mixed in with two Labor seats.
[urther to my previous comment. Stuff the Rabbott. Gillard was gracious enough to accept the Rooted Hill debacle on the Rabbott’s terms. This time she should dictate the terms.
If Julia agrees then it should be in Vic. Labor heartland.]
can you pass that on bh what a great idea the vics would love it
Pride cometh before the fall. Abbott, while good on his feet, is not a guaranteed winner of any debate, Town Hall or otherwise.
Laocoon,
[Would Rooty Hill #2 (and a debate for that matter), have to happen by Wednesday night to avoid the electronic media ban? ]
It’s only Party political advertising that has to cease at midnight Wednesday night. All other live media coverage is unaffected.
ie current affairs interviews, debates, door-stop interviews etc. They will be intense in the last two days and will even be ok on Saturday as candidates, senior officials & Leaders are interviewed ad nausium.
blue green
It isn’t only volunteers. There are even some business interests unhappy with Labor about the ETS backdown, because they know sooner or later it is unavoidable, and meanhwile those who stand to gain are worse off, despite the coal industry bleating ther is only pain from the ETS. As well as wind, solar and gas suppliers, I know some corporatiosn that even purchased assetts for their carbon credit potential, and now have nothing to show for that investment. Labor was very vulnerable on this, and took a deserved hit in the polls from it, which would have been larger if the opposition had been sane.
@ 366 blu_green
Funny, beautiful put, but sadly, too true.
Thank god I’ve retired now. Nothing to do except watch the declining number of bird species on our land and listen to the sound of chainsaws.
I reckon I could do a poll that indicated a Labor landslide.
Just pick the right seats (like Kingston or Griffith) and exprapolate that swing across the entire country.
Labor 55/45 and an extra 17 seats? No worries 😀
I see the ABC have now removed the Galaxy name and 51.4% figure from their story.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/
It would be a game changing error for Gillard to agree to a News Ltd sponsored public/forum/debate. It would prove the ALP campaign was reactive to media pressure. Tell them to get rooty hilled. Stick to what’s already planned for the last week – factory visits,(workchoices) hospital visits,(super clinics) school visits(BER) and country towns (NBN). On her terms – not Ruperts.
If the Opposition had been sane we would have an ETS
chrisabruns@gmail.com,
[@287 JWS Research and Telereach are conservative operations… ]
Well they wouldn’t be happy with the responses I gave when they surveyed me yesterday! 😉
Dr Good,
If the Greens had any principles we’d have an ETS.
scorpio
Yes, true enough on national media coverage of Rudd
Thanks for clarification on the electronic advertising ban.
So an extra day for Abbott on 730 Report 👿
Definitely a sighting of the “Murky Way Galaxy” today
only in QLD – maybe they are all emulating Tony Abbots boxing “blue”?
WYATT ROY, the LNP’s 20-year-old candidate for the Queensland seat of Longman, is being called on to explain a violent outburst by one of his campaign team members.
Potentially damaging video footage obtained by The Sunday Mail shows the LNP campaign member yesterday hitting a 22-year-old Labor supporter in the face in full view of passing cars on a busy main road, just outside of Caboolture, north of Brisbane.
Mr Roy is seen in the background talking on a mobile phone as the confrontation unfolds, with a woman intervening to try and call-off the man
Read more: http://www.news.com.au/features/federal-election/campaign-violence-caught-on-video-as-wyatt-roy-called-to-explain-outburst-by-capaigner/story-e6frfllr-1225905393679#ixzz0wdb6SUld
[If the Greens had any principles we’d have an ETS.]
So true and isn’t the failure of the ETS to pass what started Rudds slide in popularity ?
cheers
[Lurk
Posted Sunday, August 15, 2010 at 11:59 am | Permalink
My Say,
Julia was at her brilliant best with Oakes this morning. For example, when Oakes said, “Using word association what comes to mind if I say the word ‘Latham’?”
As quick as a flash she replied, “Unfortunately, Laurie, it’s Channel ]
thanks for that gee she is quick on her feet.
mysay – will do. Was asked this morning why Labor would not use Nauru. Explained that it wasn’t UNHCR and that all people processed there would have to come to Australia instead of being dispersed around the world.
Person said ‘why don’t I hear that from Julia’ so I explained that she has said it several times but if the media don’t want to pick it up they won’t and then the voters don’t hear it.
Reply was that they would vote for Julia anyway because Abbott is just too creepy. Said Julia seems honest and open. So there you go – that was a NEW Labor voter who has always voted independent before. Didn’t matter who the independent was as long as he/she wasn’t associated with major party. 2 to Labor – you beaut.
[blue green
It isn’t only volunteers. There are even some business interests unhappy with Labor about the ETS backdown, because they know sooner or later it is unavoidable, and meanhwile those who stand to gain are worse off, despite the coal industry bleating ther is only pain from the ETS. As well as wind, solar and gas suppliers, I know some corporatiosn that even purchased assetts for their carbon credit potential, and now have nothing to show for that investment. Labor was very vulnerable on this, and took a deserved hit in the polls from it, which would have been larger if the opposition had been sane.]
Socrates,
So true. Some of the most recalcitrant organisations in planning for a carbon-restrained future where the NSW-owned utilities lik MacquarieGen.
They were so confident that an ETS would never get up (well before any obvious opposition) they didnt even do any contingency planning.
Some of the private ones like Origin and AGl who invested to get ready for an ETS are hurting whilst the dinosaurs are laughing.
No “leaks” to Oakes as predicted a few times by some on this site. Just business as usual. That probably means no leaks in the 150 hours left.
Bugger me. The Sunday Age – which unlike the normal weekdat Age is as conservative as they come – also is supporting Labor. Gillard deserves her chance says the editorial headline.
I’b better just check if I’ve really woken up and this is not a dream.
@juliagillard has accepted another #rooty with @tonyabbottmhr but must include that the first half be a debate on the economy
Good thinking lets see if he accepts now.
My say,
[but would the locals know he is there in their electorate]
Not if the media don’t give the visit any coverage. Up here the only coverage was a bit article in the local newspaper “after” he had already gone. Nothing on TV.
[@AndrewGreeneABC Gillard has accepted another #rooty with Abbott #ausvotes]
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/the-new-pm-we-just-cant-afford-to-have/story-e6frezz0-1225905267877
Do the papers know something despite this Galaxy poll?
As Hawkie said this week, he won’t bag the Greens because they have preference deal with Labor to stop Abbott and a return to the nightmare that was WorkChoices etc.
If the longest serving Labor PM says don’t bag the Greens, then that’s good enough for this 30 year Labor “hack”. 😀
Laocoon,
I have just realised the origin of your name.
Fancy having the temerity of trying to warn us of the impending invasion.
It was a just punishment getting attacked by those two serpents in return.
🙂
[#
only in QLD – maybe they are all emulating Tony Abbots boxing “blue”?
WYATT ROY, the LNP’s 20-year-old candidate for the Queensland seat of Longman, is being called on to explain a violent outburst by one of his campaign team members.
Potentially damaging video footage obtained by The Sunday Mail shows the LNP campaign member yesterday hitting a 22-year-old Labor supporter in the face in full view of passing cars on a busy main road, just outside of Caboolture, north of Brisbane.
Mr Roy is seen in the background talking on a mobile phone as the confrontation unfolds, with a woman intervening to try and call-off the man
Read more: http://www.news.com.au/features/federal-election/campaign-violence-caught-on-video-as-wyatt-roy-called-to-explain-outburst-by-capaigner/story-e6frfllr-1225905393679#ixzz0wdb6SUld%5D
Perhaps Wyatt’s posse just trying to emulate their boxing leader? Was Abbott ever accused of something like this in his uni student days? I heard allegations of one charge.
if its at rooty or any other sydney club
I’M THERE
AND IM UNDECIDED
😉
[Didn’t matter who the independent was as long as he/she wasn’t associated with major party. 2 to Labor – you beaut.]
and these people have friends and family so multiply that by 6 and so on