D-day minus 9

If the campaign pattern to date is anything to go by, the present opinion poll drought should be broken tonight by Morgan, albeit in the form of a fairly small sample phone poll. For something meatier we will presumably have to wait until Nielsen tomorrow evening. Talk from the Labor camp is of “momentum” shifting their way, but confidence is placed no higher than that. Lyndal Curtis on PM says Labor insiders are “beginning to feel a little bit more optimistic”, while Matthew Franklin of The Australian says his sources agree “the result would be close and Queensland remained the key”.

“Sandbagging” has emerged as the buzzword of the late campaign, with Lenore Taylor of the Sydney Morning Herald finding Labor has targeted “ultra-marginal seats” with $1.56 billion in grants drawn from funding set aside in the federal budget. Yesterday brought the campaign’s biggest item of targeted largesse so far:

Bennelong (Labor 1.4%) and Parramatta (Labor 9.5%): Julia Gillard yesterday promised a $2.1 billion contribution to the 14 kilometre rail link between Parramatta and Epping, which currently constitutes a missing link between Sydney’s west and north. However, federal funding will not appear until 2014-15, lest it prevent the budget getting back in surplus in 2012-13. The present state government, which promised the project a decade a go but put it on the back-burner when it announced its transport strategy in February, promises to provide the remaining $520 million upfront, allowing work to start next year with completion scheduled for 2017. However, Barry O’Farrell says a state Coalition government would prefer to prioritise a north-west link from Epping to Rouse Hill and a south-west line from Glenfield to Leppington, which Labor has chosen to overlook. It is perhaps notable that they cover the less electorally interesting terrain of Mitchell and Werriwa. Beyond the more obvious beneficiaries of Bennelong and Parramatta, Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald notes a Parramatta-Epping link would further “alleviate pressure on the city-bound western line which services commuters in other key marginal seats further west such as Lindsay, Greenway and Macquarie”.

Flynn (Labor 2.3%): Flynn has been the target of frenzied efforts from Labor in recent days, the town of Emerald alone (population 19,000) being targeted with a GP super clinic announcement from Nicola Roxon on Tuesday (Anna Caldwell of the Courier-Mail notes a trend of fortuitous placement for most of the state’s 13 such facilities) and a promise of $6 million to improve local sports facilities from Wayne Swan yesterday. The electorate’s dominant city, Gladstone, was targeted by Swan with $95 million for upgrading Calliope Crossroads on top of $55 million previously promised by both parties, and $50 million for the final stages of the Gladstone Port Access Road.

Dawson (Labor 2.4%): Wayne Swan was in Mackay yesterday promising $120 million to an upgrade of the Peak Downs Highway. The electorate has also been in the news due to an embarrassing student publication which Liberal National Party candidate George Christensen edited in 1998, which has come to light courtesy of (who else?) VexNews. The “official newsletter of the Conservative Students’ Alliance” featured the observation that “women are stupid” (apropos their enthusiasm for Will Smith) and a charming joke about gays and Aids. The publication has generated much discussion about the extent to which one’s “adolescent silliness”, as Tony Abbott would have it, should be visited upon the adult. Labor at least seems confident the electorate won’t be as kind to Christensen as Abbott, with The 7:30 Report offering that Labor was “convinced George Christensen can’t win”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,066 comments on “D-day minus 9”

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  1. Peter Hartcher on ABC Radio in Sydney this morning was spruiking last night’s event as a big win for Abbott and a disaster for Gillard, until a caller rang up and pointed out that Phoney got a far easier time from the audience.
    I haven’t yet seen or heard anyone on “Their ABC” admit that the audience was full of Liberal plants.

  2. People should at least be able to accept Gillard made some errors, for instance choosing to sit on the stage for the whole event. Abbott made quite a few errors too but a 71/59 loss for Gillard is not too bad.

  3. [haven’t yet seen or heard anyone on “Their ABC” admit that the audience was full of Liberal plants.]

    evan take the time to email every local abc it doesnt take long

    google local radiion

  4. Both MelanKochie and whatever the Ch9 breakfast show is said (wtte) that the Rooty Hill audience has had allegation of stacking to favour the Liberals. Sky this morning seem very apologetic and pushing the fact that Galaxy were responsible for audience selection. Said they’ve received a lot of critical emails about the event. Meanwhile ABC Newsradio seem to be running the line that ‘undecided voters prefer Abbott.’

  5. [Intend to post a protest to ABC’s Breakfast program that they clarify their previous story, with the truth about ‘Joel’s’ background as the son of former SA Liberal Joe Scalzi.]

    Joe was their with his friend Billy doing the work for Jones & Amanda?????
    It is not just the fact that he is a Lib. Just how many more were in the audience. I thought there were three outed before I went to bed last night.

  6. [Dovif fails to mention the rigged forum at Rooty Hill. Poor little Abbott was too scared to debate Julia on the same stage. He had to wait for her to leave so he could get a receptive audience to back slap him.

    Gee he is leadership material after all??!!]

    I especially liked the patronising answer on the NBN where he told the young woman, “all you want broadband for is to send emails and download movies.”

    I was gobsmacked that a person presenting themselves as the alternate PM would be so ignorant of the commercial application of broadban.

    Absolutely gobsmacked.

    I work for a membership organisation (no not a Union) and our showpiece Conference for the year attracts over 4000 of our professionals. Much of this is now virtual so our members can access sessions from all over the world and within Australia.

    Speed is of CRITICAl importance to the success of our online ventures and offer.

    And this is just a miniscule example of the practiacl business application that high speed broadband is absolutely essential for.

    For Mr Abbott to not have a clue about this is distressing.

    Mr Abbott screams “we can afford it”. Well we couldn’t afford the Sydney Harbour Bridge, we couldn’t afford the Snowy Mountains scheme, we couldn’t afford the Great ocean Road in Victoria after WWI.

    Under Mr Abbott none of these great and long lasting infrastructure projects would have been built.

    I am truly distressed that an alternative government will consign my children and grandchildren to the technological scrapheap in comparision to the Asian and other countries who will leap ahead of us commercially and economically.

    Mr Abbott knows the cost of everything (he thinks) but the value of NOTHING.

    This is a disaster worse than anything I have heard in decades.

  7. Tim Colebatch in The Age reports that by their own (unverified) figures the coalition would save only $1265 million more than labor over the next four years and raise taxes by $469 million.i

  8. Well I wouldn’t be too bothered about Fran’s opinions/cheerleading too much. RN really just has what Howard would have called an “elitist” audience – Labor-leaning, Greens, Leafy Liberals – so it’s not going to be heard by any voters in the balance. Just confirms my feeling that the real problem with the ABC is the tabloiding of news/current affairs, not the bias. I hope it’s addressed if Labor is returned.

    Watched an episode of The Drum a couple of nights back on 24. Both Uhlman and Kelly pulled up Pru Goward trying to get away with a couple of Liberal talking points. Goward even raised that sneaky Liberal talking point about Gillard not having the experience of parenting or family. Kelly slapped it down very quickly.

    Uhlman came in when Goward tried to criticise Gillard’s Education Ministry. He pointed out that in 3 years she’d delivered everything the Liberals, including Deputy Julie Bishop, had only talked about in their 11 year rule.

    I think the bias thing might be overstated by posters. (not that I’d bother too much about The Drum, which is a bit too frivolous.)

  9. [From the Poll Bludger front page, this is the link to Galaxy, should Poll Bludgers wish to contact them to register a complaint]

    cuppa is the email address them ringing from here is costly

    also sky tv whats the email address for them can youput that up and we should repeat here all day for late comers.

  10. Bud Sigotoga

    I had missed your post. Very positive. All this talk of the forum last night is overrated.

    I feel that Rudd campaigning where it is needed, will have far more impact on the minds of voters. I sense that this election will be decided more at a grassroots level, than through the media.

    The media is losing credibility and its bias is becoming blatantly obvious.

  11. How does the son of a former Liberal MP end up being selected in an audience of supposedly “undecided voters”?
    Any selection process run by Galaxy and The Daily Telegraph must be partisan in a certain direction. 😉

  12. [for instance choosing to sit on the stage for the whole event. ]

    Even before Abbott came on I noted that Gillard should’ve gotten up and moved around a bit more. I do it as a way of disarming a hostile or indifferent audience when I’ve presented at conferences.

  13. It should be stressed that another big benefit of the governement’s actions on the GFC is that we have been able to largely restore the interest rates to their natural level thereby rearming the Reserve Bank with the capbility to exercise monetary actions in the event of a double dip crisis.
    The Libs have said that we should not have used fiscal stimulus rather send and keep interest rates very low. This would not have protected us from reduction in tax revenue to the extent that the stimulus did. It would have also caused a blowout in social security outgoings and put unemployment in a position difficult to recover from.
    We should be rejoicing that interest rates are where they are. We are positioned far better than we otherwise would have been.

  14. Michelle Grattan says “If they are confident of their costings, it would be better to have them confirmed in an election where economic credibility is absolutely central”.

    There’s a real big opening here for Labor if the MSM are prepared to attack Abbott on this.

  15. Speaking of Rudd & Channel 7: they are heavily promoting the interview with him on Sunday night, so I wonder if Gillard should be worried in advance?

  16. Seems western society nows needs investigative reporters to investigate the reporters – the Fifth Estate ends up being comprised of the citizens! Maybe that’s some kind of inevitability in a democratic system.

  17. Poss:
    [# The Galaxy screen at #rooty was random phone and online panel combined sample where people were asked if they’d decided on voting intention 8 minutes ago via TweetDeck]

    [# If they were undecided, they were asked if they were willing to participate. No bias, just the results of a simple screen 7 minutes ago via TweetDeck]

    So, a quickie and a cheapie sample selection.

  18. Joffaboy

    Your concerns are well founded. What type of a leader will he be for this country. He is so narrowminded it is mindboggling.

    To suggest that he was somehow the better performer last night is ridiculous. He is not leadership material. If he were genuinely a leader. He would have said to Julia “game on” let’s have a debate. He strutted in to the forum when she was gone, and had Liberal plants asking him dixer questions.

    He failed miserably last night and the media should report it in this way, but of course in their reporting, he was a great success.

    Yes, a success at being a shallow and hollow person.

  19. I daresay Julia hasn’t done too many townhall meetings before, so maybe she was at a slight disadvantage in terms of whether to sit or stand up?
    Rudd probably would have engaged the audience far more, as in standing up and directly addressing the questions put to him.

  20. One thing, hasn’t been cleared up. Apparently there were 200 people at forum, and votes came in 71/59 in favour of Abbott. What happened to the other 70?

  21. [He failed miserably last night and the media should report it in this way, but of course in their reporting, he was a great success.]

    Now this would be an example of partisan bias in reporting. They should just report the facts. Gillard spoke and answered questions for an hour. Abbott did the same. Both faced tough questions and some answers left a bit to be desired. The exit poll conducted on a group of ‘undecided’ voters selected by Galaxy showed Abbott scored the most votes but there was a high number of undecided or refused responses. Allegations of bias in the selection of audience members has been raised.

    Simple.

  22. To keep things in perspective

    [abcmarkscott For those who watch the numbers # Gruen 1.57m, Spicks 1.46m, #YWC 1.34m, #Lateline 617k. #Rooty 95k #ausvotes
    4 minutes ago via TweetDeck]

  23. Itep

    He failed miserably in not debating Julia at the forum. That is where he failed. They were both there. Why could they not be there together??

  24. Exactly dogma. The whole Rooty Hall thing will have such limited impact it’s not worth worry about. The only people left to sway are the ones who won’t tune in until the last few days.

  25. [And the unhinged one does another abrupt exit from a presser once a few questions start to get asked.]
    As someone here the other day suggested, it would be cool if some tech savvy person was able to splice together a youtube of Abbott walking out of every presser…perhaps to the background of “when the going gets tough the tough get going…”

  26. [abcmarkscott For those who watch the numbers # Gruen 1.57m, Spicks 1.46m, #YWC 1.34m, #Lateline 617k. #Rooty 95k #ausvotes
    4 minutes ago via TweetDeck]
    This shows the impact it will have.

  27. [People should at least be able to accept Gillard made some errors, for instance choosing to sit on the stage for the whole event. Abbott made quite a few errors too but a 71/59 loss for Gillard is not too bad.
    ]

    come on when you go to something and a stool is provided because u think
    thats its there for you you sit on it for goodmanners sake.
    perhaps as she felt more comfortable she could of moved around the room,

    but

  28. [So people were hostile to JG because she was sitting down? P-leeese.]

    No.

    The media narrative this morning is that Tone handled the audience better by getting off the stage.

  29. [Speaking of Rudd & Channel 7: they are heavily promoting the interview with him on Sunday night, so I wonder if Gillard should be worried in advance?]

    I doubt it, Evan14. But it’s probably what that stirrer, Mick Wilkinson, was referring to when he mentioned another big leak still to come. He wishes.

    Kevin’s a pro in public and will be on message. He wants that win as much as any Labor person.

  30. Ciobo said “Why should we provide everyone with a Ferrari when all that is needed is a Commodore?’
    Tanya said, “Steve, it’s a horse and cart that you are offering!”

  31. BK
    [It should be stressed that another big benefit of the governement’s actions on the GFC is that we have been able to largely restore the interest rates to their natural level…]
    In addition to the reasons you outline BK, another consideration is that having a cheap cost of capital (i.e. return on investment, i.e. return on savings) is not a good thing. Very low interest rates can encourage unproductive allocation of resources, particularly speculation on financial products. A contributer to the speculation that ended in the GFC bust was Greenspan’s overly low, overly prolonged interest rate strategy post the DotCom Bust in 2000.

    Central bankers generally are wary of very low interest rates (US bubble, but also their complete ineffectiveness in Japan – where interest rates have been around zero for maybe 10 years now). The fact that the Fed decided on quantitative easing the other night, and BoEngland continues to be loose is an indication of just how bad the outlook is in US/EU economies right now.

  32. [Thanks. So Tanya was able to get her message across?]
    Yes, victoria, but, as usual, “Sorry we’ve run out of time” spoilt it all just when it was getting down to tin tacks.

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