Highlights of week two

My federal election guide is at long last open for business – note the link on the sidebar below the Crikey Daily Mail ad. It could have done with another proof read, so apologies for any broken links, misplaced slabs of text or references to Kevin Rudd as Prime Minister that might remain. Entries will be progressively updated/corrected/tarted up in the weeks to come.

Miscellaneous recent happenings:

• Nominations have closed, and the ballot paper draw will be conducted tomorrow. The Australian Electoral Commission informs us there are 14,030,528 names on the electoral roll: click here for astoundingly detailed age and gender breakdowns by electorate.

• The Age reports the High Court will hear a constitutional challenge by GetUp! against the closure of the electoral rolls on the evening the writs are issued, as provided for by the Howard government’s 2005 electoral law changes.

• ABC TV’s The Gruen Nation and The Chaser’s Yes We Canberra! cleaned up in the ratings on Wednesday, recording 1.6 million and 1.5 million viewers respectively. This brings to mind a growing field of study in the United States on the impact of “soft news” (usual suspects: Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert) as a bona fide campaign information source for those bored by or cynical of the established news media institutions.

• As in 2007, Google has put together an election site which will come into its own, at least for my purposes, when polling booth locations are added as promised “closer to election day”.

Horse race stuff:

• Andrew Probyn of The West Australian reports Labor internal polling has them at 50-50 in Hasluck and Swan, but trailing 53-47 in Canning. Labor are also said to be expecting a Greens preference split of about 65-35 compared with 76-24 in 2007. It is noted that a lower flow of Greens preferences is expected in Hasluck in particular as both the Greens and the Liberals have endorsed Aboriginal candidates.

• This is how Brisbane academic and blogger Mark Bahnisch sees his local turf:

Longman is looking good for the ALP, with 20 year old LNP candidate Wyatt Roy failing to swing voters. Petrie is showing more evidence of a swing towards the Coalition, though the LNP candidate Dean Teasdale is low profile and Labor holds it by a relatively solid margin compared to its two neighbours. (Teasdale initially expressed scepticism about the rail promise, only to have the Coalition leadership match the funding later in the afternoon.) Dickson is looking very bad for its incumbent MP Peter Dutton, with Labor’s Fiona McNamara able to capitalise on his failed attempt to defect to the safer seat of McPherson.

Electorate-level news nuggets:

Robertson (Labor 0.1%): Belinda Neal has opted not to run as an independent in her seat of Robertson, contrary to widespread earlier speculation. AAP refers to “reports Ms Neal was angling for a spot in the NSW parliament”, assuming there are any left for Labor after the voters are done with them.

Dawson (Labor 2.4%): Queensland’s Crime and Misconduct Commission has dismissed 17 allegations of misconduct relating to corporate credit card use against Labor’s candidate for Dawson, Whitsunday mayor Mike Brunker. The allegations have been the subject of newspaper advertising by the Liberal National Party candidate, George Christensen. Brunker reacted to the news by complaining of “a serial pest out there in the Whitsundays who instigated all this”.

There’s always one. In fact, there’s often several. Certainly this campaign’s had a few:

Chifley (Labor 20.7%): With less than a week left before the closure of nominations, the Liberals were forced to disendorse a candidate whose preselection marked an embarrassing failure for its candidate-vetting procedures. David Barker is a conservative Christian of marked eccentricity, and according to Imre Salusinszky of The Australian was “never grilled by a full preselection panel and was interviewed only by phone before being chosen”. Astoundingly given the party’s form with Husic, Barker wrote on his Facebook page: “We ran a big risk running a guy who holds these views against a Muslim candidate.” He was promptly replaced by grocery store owner Venus Priest.

Flinders (Liberal 8.2%): Initial Labor candidate Adrian Schonfelder was a casualty of the first week, after he said Tony Abbott’s conservative social positions were “influencing people to take their own lives”. Schonfelder apologised and soon after withdrew as candidate, saying a car accident on the Friday had left him “shocked and incapacitated”.

Parramatta (Labor 9.5%): Liberal candidate Charles Camenzuli has received unwelcome publicity in the past week after Channel Nine revealed he had been criticised by a Supreme Court judge. The court ordered Camenzuli to stop publishing criticisms of building industry rival Beechwood Homes on his website, which the judge deemed “motivated by personal spite”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,105 comments on “Highlights of week two”

Comments Page 3 of 23
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  1. Oh poor frank, can’t see that you can be interested in politics and not aligned to one particular party.

    The political reality is both bunch of right win nutters have put themselves in a very vulnerable position.

    If Gillard loses and they lose NSW the NSW right will have no power base, and yes it could be the end of the Labor party as we know it, perhaps comparing Rudd to Menzies is apt.

    If Abbott loses hard ( a possibility that is fading because of the NSW right), then the right wing nutters that put Abbott in place will probable be on a slippery slop to nowhere and perhaps the moderates can take back control.

  2. Frank: What was done to Rudd still has a bad smell about it, and the likes of Arbib and Bitar will continue to wear that stench.
    Has Arbib actually done anything useful as Employment Participation Minister?
    Shorten at least is obviously committed to the disabled.

  3. [The Australian Electoral Commission informs us there are 14,030,528 names on the electoral roll: click here for astoundingly detailed age and gender breakdowns by electorate.]

    Hours of fun in this data

    Looking at NSW in total, the split between female:male is 51.9:48.1

    There is only one division in which women are in the minority 49.1:50.9, Sydney; it has a sitting female member

    And which division in NSW has the highest proportion of women at 53.2:46.8? Well of course it is Warringah! Tony better not antagonise too many women 👿

  4. [If Gillard loses and they lose NSW the NSW right will have no power base, and yes it could be the end of the Labor party as we know it, perhaps comparing Rudd to Menzies is apt.]

    She won’t lose.

    Now go and play in the creche like a good little boy.

  5. Frank -So you are running with your bag of cement mix into the party’s Cosa Nostra are you? Not all in the party agree with you, including John Faulkner and Lindsay Tanner. Should they be ‘in the Greens creche’ too?

  6. [Frank -So you are running with your bag of cement mix into the party’s Cosa Nostra are you? Not all in the party agree with you, including John Faulkner and Lindsay Tanner. Should they be ‘in the Greens creche’ too?]

    Oh into Ethnic bashing now – yo’ve lost all credibility now you fool.

    Go and join fredn in the playpen – you need your nappy changed.

  9. [Diogenes, can you nominate an observed phenomenon for which there is no materialist explanation?]

    You really need to read more science books. Try any book on quantum mechanics or string theory or the Big Bang.

    Can you explain to us the materialist explanation for consciousness?

    Humans can only think in three or four dimensions, some can evidently manage 5 or 6 (I’m not one). We are beginning to realise that our lack of understanding of the basic questions of reality probably requires knowledge beyond the 4 dimensions we live in.

  10. AnD what I find very illuminating frank is you acceptance without argument that Labor is now ran by right wing nutters; your counter arguments seems to be, look over there, the Liberals have right wing nutters also. Don’t have to convince me, they destroyed the Liberal party.

    Both parties ran by nutters, that makes “The Piping Shrikes” hypotheses pretty close to the mark doesn’t it Frank. The voters job, the selecting of the least incompetent.

  11. [AnD what I find very illuminating frank is you acceptance without argument that Labor is now ran by right wing nutters; your counter arguments seems to be, look over there, the Liberals have right wing nutters also. Don’t have to convince me, they destroyed the Liberal party.

    Both parties ran by nutters, that makes “The Piping Shrikes” hypotheses pretty close to the mark doesn’t it Frank. The voters job, the selecting of the least incompetent.]

    Says a confessed LIBERAL.

    now go and wait with jv to get your nappy changed.

  12. Frank: we aren’t living in a tolitarian regime, people are allowed to disagree with you if they want to.
    You can be a Labor supporter but still critical of aspects of their campaign/peformance.
    To label anyone voicing disquiet about Gillard’s campaign as an Abbott supporter is unfair.

  13. [Frank: we aren’t living in a tolitarian regime, people are allowed to disagree with you if they want to.
    You can be a Labor supporter but still critical of aspects of their campaign/peformance.
    To label anyone voicing disquiet about Gillard’s campaign as an Abbott supporter is unfair.]

    Join the others for the Nappy Change.

  16. And that is it is it Frank, they bast counter argument you can come up (go change your nappy), as you watch your beloved party fall down around you.

    Your border line losing against a compete maniac leading a party that is in total disarray. If the Liberals were stall a sane party lead by a sane leader Labor would be screwed.

  18. My feeling is still unchanged – that labor will be re-elected with a reduced majority. Labor will win because too many people are scared of Abbott. Labor won’t win for any positive reason. We have failed to get the message out and articulate what we really stand for. People at least know what Tony Abbott stands for even if they might not like it. Julia has 3 weeks to present labor in a more positive light. The clock is ticking.

  20. [My feeling is still unchanged – that labor will be re-elected with a reduced majority. Labor will win because too many people are scared of Abbott. Labor won’t win for any positive reason. We have failed to get the message out and articulate what we really stand for. People at least know what Tony Abbott stands for even if they might not like it. Julia has 3 weeks to present labor in a more positive light. The clock is ticking.]

    Messages are best given closer to polling day – the average voter has a short attention span – they are still in zombie mode.

    The Campaign is where the big guns are loaded.

  21. sykesie

    [We have failed to get the message out and articulate what we really stand for.]

    That’s because Labor don’t have a message and the only thing they stand for is being re-elected.

  23. [sykesie

    We have failed to get the message out and articulate what we really stand for.

    That’s because Labor don’t have a message and the only thing they stand for is being re-elected.]

    and what happened in SA ??

    You were wRONg.

    Now go and join the others – your nappy is wet.

  24. [I hope you’re right Frank.]

    When Christopher Pyne is reduced to handing out material in his own seat – you know you’re stuffed.

  25. Dio – i just think there is too much control-freakery surrounding politics which means that everything gets so stage-managed that the big picture is lost in the minimalist information that comes from our labor and liberal politicians. Watching programs like Q&A shows many of these automatons in a much better light when they can just chat and debate like normal people.

  26. The whole election campaign wait is just silly, why can’t they give the announcements and just have the election within the next couple of days, it’s so boring these long elections.

  27. Bryan Pape, the academic who challenged the Rudd Government’s stimulus package in the High Court has nominated as an independent candidate for the Senate in Queensland. He believes the Gillard’s proposal to pay $15 million to a group of 15 councils for house construction is constitutionally invalid and wants to carry out a ‘constitutional audit of the statute book’.

  28. [The whole election campaign wait is just silly, why can’t they give the announcements and just have the election within the next couple of days, it’s so boring these long elections.]

    There is this little stumbling block known as the Constitution which requires a minimum 33 day campaign.

  29. Frank

    I predicted Labor would be re-elected in SA. Your nappy fixation is getting to be a worry. Isn’t it 6am or something in WA?

    sykesie

    I really don’t think there is a big picture. And I stopped watching QANDA because I tired of watching inarticulate dimwitted politicians try to explain things they didn’t understand without stepping outside the party line.

  30. [Watching programs like Q&A shows many of these automatons in a much better light when they can just chat and debate like normal people.]

    Until there’s a major stuff-up on such a show and the party daleks clamp down on any further appearances :p

    Campaigns are always disappointing because parties are so cautious to avoid mistakes they say nothing new or interesting. This one is no different. The only thing that made the last one seem so exciting is because there was unity in the mission to turf out Howard.

  31. sykesie

    Have you heard the same as TSOP and myself that SA Labor Right are counting the numbers to replace Foley with Snelling and that Snelling is the heir apparent to Rann?

  32. Frank
    😆
    Sorry, but using the Cosa Nostra as a metaphor is not an ethnic slur. That is a criminal brotherhood, not the name of an ethnic group.

  33. i am not great poster here any more but read and i have noticed its always evan
    who goes back to the negatives
    if you want to know hes the reason i do not bother
    yesterday it was shorten today back to rudd/

    are you a liberal

  34. [Frank
    😆
    Sorry, but using the Cosa Nostra as a metaphor is not an ethnic slur. That is a criminal brotherhood, not the name of an ethnic group.]

    It has Ethnic connotations you fool.

    Who do you think they are albino boy scouts ?

    Think about it.

  35. [Are you gunning for Rudd to start a 3rd party]

    So in the Great Menzies tradition Kev can start with a speech about the “Forgotten RatF##kers” 😉

  37. One thing that this term of government should tell Labor is that there’s no point focusing on the polls on day-to-day issues. Things can still go wrong and end up costing, or nearly costing the election for them. They need to drop the poll focus next term (if they win) and just go about doing what they believe is in the best interest of the country.

  38. JV Read and Digest:

    [The Mafia (also known as “Cosa Nostra”) is a criminal brotherhood that emerged in the mid 19th century Sicily. It is a loose association of criminal groups that share a common organizational structure and code of conduct. Each group, known as a “family”, “association”, “clan” or “cosca”, claims sovereignty over a territory in which it operates its rackets – usually a town or village or a neighbourhood (borgata) of a larger city.]

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sicilian_Mafia

    You were saying you nong ?

  39. my say, evan is not a Liberal. He’s just not forgiven Labor for replacing Rudd yet. I’m sure he’ll realises the best way to honour Rudd’s achievements is not to elect an Abbott Government will go about trashing them.

  40. [Frank

    Sorry, but using the Cosa Nostra as a metaphor is not an ethnic slur. That is a criminal brotherhood, not the name of an ethnic group.]

    It is an ethnic criminal brotherhood so of course it has connotations of an ethnic slur.

    Poor form.

  43. [Frank’s in a cranky mood, this morning.]

    I don’t take kindly to bullshit artists- especially those who revel in using ethnic slurs to describe people who have non anglo names.

  44. William
    Another nugget, and possibly, a gem: There is an item in the Hobart Mercury on a legal challenge that Abetz is not compliant with a law that apparently does not allow sitting members to be dual citizens.

  45. Dio – I haven’t heard the Snelling rumour, although he has been talked up a bit in the media. I personally think John Rau is more likely. But then I’m more associated with the labor left, so I’ll probably be the last to know 🙂

  46. [William
    Another nugget, and possibly, a gem: There is an item in the Hobart Mercury on a legal challenge that Abetz is not compliant with a law that apparently does not allow sitting members to be dual citizens]

    hopefully it may also apply to his brother and cause a By-election in WA 🙂

  47. Frank
    [Now go and play in the creche like a good little boy.]
    One of the great lies popular these days is that those who care about ethics are somehow “niaive” while those who lack the conscience to stop themselves behaving badly “get it” and are “pragmatic realists”. These people mistake a character deficit for intellect or decisiveness, as though the rest of us can’t see what is going on or are unable to act. Apart form being incredibly arrogant, this view is also false. Most of the world’s ethical theories, from Aristotle onwards, were written by people reflecting from painfull experience on what went wrong when basic principles are abaondoned. They were not niaive.

    Personaly, the reason why I recoil from Arbib and Bitar is I have seen their type before, and how much damage they do. Prior to their heavy involvement via focus group politics earlie this year rudd and Labor were cruising. If Labor are elected now it will be in spite of them, while eventually, they will create one compromise too many and cause their defeat.

    Explaining away disingenuous behaviour with the equigalent of “everyone does it” is a straw man, like saying everyone lies. Some lie more than others, while for a lot of people, there are still some core things they won’t lie about. Just because politics has always ben cynical, doesn’t mean that all were equally cynical. Some are worse than others, and there have been som ewho have been successful without stooping to Arbib and Bitar’s level.

    So to Frank’s “go back to the creche” line I’d say, go back to school, and read some books on the corrupting influence of power, the hubris it brings, and its ultimate folly.

  48. Frank.

    Nor, should you take kindly to ethnic slurs. It’s bad enough Julia is getting maligned for not being married with children, or believing in an invisible force. (sigh!)

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