Highlights of week two

My federal election guide is at long last open for business – note the link on the sidebar below the Crikey Daily Mail ad. It could have done with another proof read, so apologies for any broken links, misplaced slabs of text or references to Kevin Rudd as Prime Minister that might remain. Entries will be progressively updated/corrected/tarted up in the weeks to come.

Miscellaneous recent happenings:

• Nominations have closed, and the ballot paper draw will be conducted tomorrow. The Australian Electoral Commission informs us there are 14,030,528 names on the electoral roll: click here for astoundingly detailed age and gender breakdowns by electorate.

• The Age reports the High Court will hear a constitutional challenge by GetUp! against the closure of the electoral rolls on the evening the writs are issued, as provided for by the Howard government’s 2005 electoral law changes.

• ABC TV’s The Gruen Nation and The Chaser’s Yes We Canberra! cleaned up in the ratings on Wednesday, recording 1.6 million and 1.5 million viewers respectively. This brings to mind a growing field of study in the United States on the impact of “soft news” (usual suspects: Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert) as a bona fide campaign information source for those bored by or cynical of the established news media institutions.

• As in 2007, Google has put together an election site which will come into its own, at least for my purposes, when polling booth locations are added as promised “closer to election day”.

Horse race stuff:

• Andrew Probyn of The West Australian reports Labor internal polling has them at 50-50 in Hasluck and Swan, but trailing 53-47 in Canning. Labor are also said to be expecting a Greens preference split of about 65-35 compared with 76-24 in 2007. It is noted that a lower flow of Greens preferences is expected in Hasluck in particular as both the Greens and the Liberals have endorsed Aboriginal candidates.

• This is how Brisbane academic and blogger Mark Bahnisch sees his local turf:

Longman is looking good for the ALP, with 20 year old LNP candidate Wyatt Roy failing to swing voters. Petrie is showing more evidence of a swing towards the Coalition, though the LNP candidate Dean Teasdale is low profile and Labor holds it by a relatively solid margin compared to its two neighbours. (Teasdale initially expressed scepticism about the rail promise, only to have the Coalition leadership match the funding later in the afternoon.) Dickson is looking very bad for its incumbent MP Peter Dutton, with Labor’s Fiona McNamara able to capitalise on his failed attempt to defect to the safer seat of McPherson.

Electorate-level news nuggets:

Robertson (Labor 0.1%): Belinda Neal has opted not to run as an independent in her seat of Robertson, contrary to widespread earlier speculation. AAP refers to “reports Ms Neal was angling for a spot in the NSW parliament”, assuming there are any left for Labor after the voters are done with them.

Dawson (Labor 2.4%): Queensland’s Crime and Misconduct Commission has dismissed 17 allegations of misconduct relating to corporate credit card use against Labor’s candidate for Dawson, Whitsunday mayor Mike Brunker. The allegations have been the subject of newspaper advertising by the Liberal National Party candidate, George Christensen. Brunker reacted to the news by complaining of “a serial pest out there in the Whitsundays who instigated all this”.

There’s always one. In fact, there’s often several. Certainly this campaign’s had a few:

Chifley (Labor 20.7%): With less than a week left before the closure of nominations, the Liberals were forced to disendorse a candidate whose preselection marked an embarrassing failure for its candidate-vetting procedures. David Barker is a conservative Christian of marked eccentricity, and according to Imre Salusinszky of The Australian was “never grilled by a full preselection panel and was interviewed only by phone before being chosen”. Astoundingly given the party’s form with Husic, Barker wrote on his Facebook page: “We ran a big risk running a guy who holds these views against a Muslim candidate.” He was promptly replaced by grocery store owner Venus Priest.

Flinders (Liberal 8.2%): Initial Labor candidate Adrian Schonfelder was a casualty of the first week, after he said Tony Abbott’s conservative social positions were “influencing people to take their own lives”. Schonfelder apologised and soon after withdrew as candidate, saying a car accident on the Friday had left him “shocked and incapacitated”.

Parramatta (Labor 9.5%): Liberal candidate Charles Camenzuli has received unwelcome publicity in the past week after Channel Nine revealed he had been criticised by a Supreme Court judge. The court ordered Camenzuli to stop publishing criticisms of building industry rival Beechwood Homes on his website, which the judge deemed “motivated by personal spite”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,105 comments on “Highlights of week two”

Comments Page 2 of 23
1 2 3 23
  1. Itep.

    You may not have noticed, but yesterday Labor have put forward a great Disability Policy. It will make a huge difference to a big sector of our community. This type of initiative should be applauded.

    Abbott went to the Essendon Footy club and kicked around a ball.

    Please. The media is bankrupt.

  2. ltep:

    [Thomas if he was such an ‘independent spirit’ why did he curry favour with Arbib, including elevating his position on the front bench so quickly? It’s been said that Rudd would never have gotten to where he is without the help of people like Arbib. Unfortunately for him he lost this support and the leadership.

    It was a completely ordinary transition, completely analogous to the moves to replace Beazley, which Rudd benefited from and you need to move on. Don’t forget Beazley had a good solid run in the polls and was still ‘in front’ when Rudd replaced him.]

    For once I agree with you – TP, jv & Socrates do not get it – it is a normal cjange of leader – why aren’t they also angry at how the Libs treated Turnbull ?

    At least Rudd had the decency to resign when he knew he didn’t have the numbers.

  3. re: “soft” news. I remember John Edwards announcing his candidacy for the 2000 Democrat presidential nomination on The Daily Show. Jon Stewart said “you know it isn’t a real show, don’t you?”

  4. Itep.

    Another thing about the media. Yes, there were these silly supposed leaks regarding JG discussions on pensions and PPL. These initiatives have been done. That is the result.

    Why isn’t the media stating whatever the discussions, Labor increased pensions. Liberals had 11 years to do it, but did not.

    Labor introduced PPL for first time ever, Liberals had 11 years to do it, but did not.

    Whatever was discussed in Cabinet resulted in a good outcome.

    The Liberals are not running a good campaign at all. Truly, Abbott, Hockey and Robb look like the three stooges, they are just winging it on the back of media support.

  5. And what is Abbott doing atm:

    [ vote7news
    Abbott is visiting Meals on Wheels and helping with some kitchen preparation in Adelaide. #ausvotes 27 minutes ago via txt ]

  6. [The Liberals are not running a good campaign at all…]

    They are also not getting their message out due to the media infatuation with Kevin Rudd.

  7. Frank.

    Abbott is going around kicking balls, passing food around, filletting fish etc. Anything but talk about real policies, real costings. He does not want to answer any questions at all.
    He will stuff up any responses he makes. He does not have a clue about anything. He is a hollow candidate and he is just winging it. JG is grilled wherever she goes, and has to answer detailed questions. She is facing the scrutiny. Not him. It is disgusting.

  8. Michael Harvey of the Herald Sun has reported the latest Galaxy Pol results taken Wednesday.

    The latest Galaxy poll of 800 voters, taken on Wednesday night for Channel 9, has Labor and the Coalition tied at 50-50 on a two-party preferred basis.

    The previous Galaxy poll at the weekend had Labor leading 52-48. Labor’s primary vote slipped from 38 to 37 per cent; the Coalition’s has climbed from 41 to 43 per cent

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/shut-up-or-be-shut-out-warns-julia-gillard/story-e6frf7l6-1225898748109

  9. [They are also not getting their message out due to the media infatuation with Kevin Rudd.]

    Exactly – Kevin being Kevin and campaigning in his own seat, with the media in tow is actually starving the Libs of valuable air time to get their message out 🙂

  10. victoria, the media are vultures. This has always been the case and Abbott received the treatment in the first few days of the campaign as he completely flubbed his WorkChoices lines. Someone within Labor gave them a big stick to beat Gillard with and they won’t stop until a bigger stick is given to them to bash Abbott with. It’s just how the game works. Positive stories do not sell papers, generate website hits or keep viewers watching to drive ad revenue.

    The reason Abbott is able to get positive traction is because Labor are allowing themselves to be the targets.

  11. Ruawake and Frank.

    That may be true, but Labor is getting negative publicity all the way, and that cannot be good.

  12. [For once I agree with you – TP, jv & Socrates do not get it – it is a normal cjange of leader – why aren’t they also angry at how the Libs treated Turnbull ?

    At least Rudd had the decency to resign when he knew he didn’t have the numbers]

    Oh come on Frank, don’t you think dumping a first term PM is a bit different to dumping an opposition leader?

    I agree that he had to be dumped, I would agree to anything as long as the unhinged maniac disaster Abbott is kept out, but the Rudd disposal was HUGE.

    On a side note, and as anecdotal as it gets, my wife bought the Womens Weekly done the local shops and had to go to three shops and final grabbed the last one at the Supermarket. Newsagent woman told her that it had never sold out so quickly.

    Seems women absolutely love Julia.

  13. Aguirre, you can’t completely blame the media. The Liberal Party have run their campaign well and have had a lot more oxygen to present ‘good news’ compared to the ALP. The ALP have been shooting themselves in the foot at every turn and deserve what they’re getting.

    I believe Gillard does travel to places and use slogans. When journalists follow her around to unknown destinations it’s apparently a bloody outrage. When they follow Abbott it’s a glorious mystery tour and a credit to his stamina.

    And to put it in context. If there’s a good news story about Gillard (for example, the positive response to her Womens Weekly shoot), the first thing we hear is someone asking where the balance for Abbott is. That is seriously what I heard. Same thing back last year on climate change. Big issue, but the ABC were mostly concerned about giving the other side of the argument equal time.

    Which is also an interesting point. The Liberals have been talking far too much about their climate change action plan. The balance is all wrong. I demand to hear from Lord Monckton.

  14. [Ruawake and Frank.

    That may be true, but Labor is getting negative publicity all the way, and that cannot be good.]

    Yes, but if Rudd was PM they would’ve gone into hyperdrive to attack him – let’s face it the media and the Libs had the whole campaign aimed at attacking Rudd – they have had the bulk of their wind taken out of their sails.

  15. A pretty lacklustre campaign so far from Labor – even the most rusted on Gillard lovers have to concede that one!
    People accuse Rudd of being robotic and stage managed?
    Julia sadly isn’t any different – she only broke out of the mould on Wednesday, and it was refreshing to see “the real Julia”.
    Like it or not, Abbott can get away with meaningless photo opportunites and stunts, because he’s got the media in his pocket.
    Gillard will most likely win, but it won’t be the emphatic victory that Labor was hoping for.

  16. [Oh come on Frank, don’t you think dumping a first term PM is a bit different to dumping an opposition leader?]

    It happened to Sir Robert Menzies in 1941 and it didn’t hurt his future 🙂

  17. Frank: If Labor’s polling in QLD is so wonderful, why then the need for Rudd to help out in marginal seats? 😉

  18. [A pretty lacklustre campaign so far from Labor – even the most rusted on Gillard lovers have to concede that one!
    People accuse Rudd of being robotic and stage managed?
    Julia sadly isn’t any different – she only broke out of the mould on Wednesday, and it was refreshing to see “the real Julia”.
    Like it or not, Abbott can get away with meaningless photo opportunites and stunts, because he’s got the media in his pocket.
    Gillard will most likely win, but it won’t be the emphatic victory that Labor was hoping for.]

    It’s a 5 week campaign – this is the warm up – the hounds will be released after the Campaign launch and in the final 2 weeks 🙂

  19. [Oh come on Frank, don’t you think dumping a first term PM is a bit different to dumping an opposition leader?]

    It’s no different at all. A Prime Minister is still just the leader of the political party with the highest number of seats in the House of Representatives. If they lose the support of their party they lose the leadership.

  20. Further to that earlier story on Arbib, and by extension Bitar, I think the best explanations of their behaviour are psychological, not political. They seem to assume that the rest of the world is as cynical as they are, and don’t understand why people react badly to them. I am not saying they are evil per se, but there does seem to be something vaguely sociopathic about them. They really don’t seem capable of having empathy for persons or causes other than themselves. The end justifies the means; any means, then they wonder why they have upset people. Labor would be better off without them, but I doubt Labor is sufficiently internally democratic for that to happen.

  21. [If Labor’s polling in QLD is so wonderful, why then the need for Rudd to help out in marginal seats?]

    You’ve repeated this a couple of times. Is there any suggestion he’s doing anything other than possibly appearing alongside Gillard at the launch? This also ignores the fact Labor were performing badly in Queensland marginals under Rudd’s leadership as well.

  22. Arbib and Bitar the great architects – building sand castles just to knock them down again. No wonder there are ructions in the party. A pair of wrecking balls:

    ”Mark and Karl were absolutely insistent that Rudd had to dump the ETS (emissions trading scheme). They pushed, prodded, cajoled and would not take ‘no’ for an answer. That was the big turning point in Kevin’s standing with the voters.

    ”It’s breathtaking now for Mark and Karl three months down the track to say, ‘Well, you’ve lost the people, you’ve got to go.’ ”

    Within the party Arbib is now furiously trying to downplay his part in dumping the scheme, yet he refuses to go on the record about his role.

    (From the SMH article linked earlier by Socrates)

  23. [Further to that earlier story on Arbib, and by extension Bitar, I think the best explanations of their behaviour are psychological, not political. They seem to assume that the rest of the world is as cynical as they are, and don’t understand why people react badly to them. I am not saying they are evil per se, but there does seem to be something vaguely sociopathic about them. They really don’t seem capable of having empathy for persons or causes other than themselves. The end justifies the means; any means, then they wonder why they have upset people. Labor would be better off without them, but I doubt Labor is sufficiently internally democratic for that to happen.]

    Graham Richardson used the same tactics and produced a 4 Term Hawke Govt 🙂

  24. [Arbib and Bitar the great architects – building sand castles just to knock them down again. No wonder there are ructions in the party. A pair of wrecking balls:]

    That is no different to the Liberal Powerbrokers like Noel Chrichton-Browne in WA, Corey Bernardi in NSW and Nick Minchin in SA 🙂

  25. Arbib and Bitar typify what is wrong with NSW Labor in particular – two sleazy operators, much in the mould of Tripodi and Obeid.

  26. [Frank Calabrese
    Posted Friday, July 30, 2010 at 9:00 am | Permalink
    Oh come on Frank, don’t you think dumping a first term PM is a bit different to dumping an opposition leader?

    It happened to Sir Robert Menzies in 1941 and it didn’t hurt his future ]

    No; but it did end the party that was silly enough to dump him. A you suggesting that the mad NSW right are going to succeed in destroy the Labor party?

  27. [Arbib and Bitar typify what is wrong with NSW Labor in particular – two sleazy operators, much in the mould of Tripodi and Obeid.]

    Michael Kroger in Victoria anyone ??

    Get over it.

  28. Frank
    [Oh come on Frank, don’t you think dumping a first term PM is a bit different to dumping an opposition leader?

    It happened to Sir Robert Menzies in 1941 and it didn’t hurt his future]
    Are you gunning for Rudd to start a 3rd party 😉

  29. [That is no different to the Liberal Powerbrokers like Noel Chrichton-Browne in WA, Corey Bernardi in NSW and Nick Minchin in SA ]

    It doesn’t necessarily make it right though. However, all party leaders have to manage factions and power brokers within their parties or else they’ll find themselves out of a job. Why else would Howard have had Tuckey on his front bench. Obviously not because of his political talent. Managing relationships within the party are just as important for any leader as managing the public and media.

  30. Frank
    Arbib & Bitar in NSW destroyed the party and constructed a revolving door of premiers. Richardson certainly did not use the ‘same tactics’. He is a thug and a bully behind the scenes, and thoroughly unpleasant (Peter Baldwin) – but otherwise he’s OK. 😆

  31. [Frank Calabrese
    Posted Friday, July 30, 2010 at 9:09 am | Permalink
    Arbib and Bitar typify what is wrong with NSW Labor in particular – two sleazy operators, much in the mould of Tripodi and Obeid.

    Michael Kroger in Victoria anyone ??

    Get over it.]

    This seems to be you response; because the Liberal party is full of right wing nutters it’s ok for the Labor party. As I said this is going to be a great election, one group of them is going to get it in the neck.

  32. [This seems to be you response; because the Liberal party is full of right wing nutters it’s ok for the Labor party. As I said this is going to be a great election, one group of them is going to get it in the neck.]

    It’s called political reality – try it sometimes.

    Oh but I forgot, the Libs believe in fairytales like their natural allies the Greens.

  33. [Frank
    Arbib & Bitar in NSW destroyed the party and constructed a revolving door of premiers. Richardson certainly did not use the ’same tactics’. He is a thug and a bully behind the scenes, and thoroughly unpleasant (Peter Baldwin) – but otherwise he’s OK. :lol:]

    I’ll bet you’ll be praising them once Julia gets in the Lodge. 🙂

  34. Interestingly the MSM have not picked up that abbott has a minder wherever he goes-minchin drew the short straw for this week

    who will “hold his hand and iron his shirts” next week?

  35. Here is one difference between Richardson and the Arbib mafia:

    Older heads in the Labor camp worry that both Arbib and Bitar are hooked on panicky politics driven by focus-group research.

    The basic reason these creeps have been able to take over the party in NSW is partly about money I think:

    Arbib cemented a reputation as a prodigious fund-raiser and skilled campaigner,]

    What is lacking is any principle or vision for the nation – no ideological position at all – just winning.

  36. Frank
    [That is no different to the Liberal Powerbrokers like Noel Chrichton-Browne in WA, Corey Bernardi in NSW and Nick Minchin in SA ]
    And how much respect do you have for them Frank? What you don’t seem to comprehend is that, when both sides become indistinguishable from each other, the non-rusted ons have no reason left to vote for Labor.

    Saying that Graham Richardson causd Hawke’s 4 victories is seriously delusional. What amuses/disgusts me about all these guys is that they don’t ever have the “ticker” to get elected in their own rights to a lower house seat. They know they’d never make it, so they hide in the Senate or get pre-seletd to a very safe seat. In this respect Keating got the Senate’s description down to a tee.

  37. [Mark Riley & 7News vote7news
    No Spin: Abbott visiting meals on wheels was all about him proving that older Australians vote Liberal – Riley #ausvotes less than a minute ago via txt ]

  38. @ 95 – last sentence is mine about Arbib, not the SMH’s:

    What is lacking is any principle or vision for the nation – no ideological position at all – just winning.

  39. Socrates – Join the real world – if you want to get ANYWHERE in Politics, you have to play the system – it’s a fact.

    Or do you prefer to play with the toddlers in the Greens Creche ?

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 2 of 23
1 2 3 23