Highlights of day five

With just 31 days left to go:

• Two pieces of polling intelligence have emerged today on what appears to be a widening electoral gender gap. The Australian reports the weekend’s 55-45 Newspoll had Labor leading 44 per cent to 33 per cent on the primary vote among women, but trailing 39 per cent to 42 per cent among men. We are also told that the gender gap in Tony Abbott’s personal rating is now at nine points, up from four in April. As George Megalogenis noted last week, this is likely to hit the Liberals in seats with a high concentration of working women, of which Cameron Stewart of The Australian identifies four: Bennelong, Franklin, Brisbane and Deakin. The Herald-Sun also reports that the weekend’s 50-50 Galaxy poll had Julia Gillard’s preferred prime minister lead at 58-31 among women and 51-40 among men.

• The Herald Sun further informs us that 59 per cent of respondents from the Galaxy survey supported a levy on bank profits similar to that of the mining tax, not that either party is advocating such a thing. Only 28 per cent of respondents said they were opposed.

• Leisa Scott of the Courier-Mail reports that Jen Sackley, unsuccessful LNP preselection hopeful for Leichhardt, will run as an independent. Sackley has complained of a “bullying culture” in the party, and proclaimed Labor’s Leichhardt MP Jim Turnour to be of superior “stature” to Warren Entsch, the former Liberal member who is coming out of retirement to run again for the LNP.

• Possum calculates the electoral impact of Labor’s decision to lock in an election date that gave voters only one weekday to get their enrolment in order. This is found to be in the order of fractions of 0.1 per cent, but might be a bit higher in seats with a particularly high concentration of young voters. The most marginal of these are identified as Melbourne, Ryan, Swan, Herbert, Macarthur, Solomon and Cowan.

• Verona Burgess of the Australian Financial Review notes the electoral impact of public service cuts not just on the Australian Capital Territory, where they might make life difficult for Liberal Senator Gary Humphries, but also in Eden-Monaro. As well as housing many of Canberra’s public servants in Queanbeyan, the famous bellwether electorate also encompasses Batemans Bay on the south coast, which Burgess tells us is known as “little Canberra-by-the-sea” due to its concentration of public agencies.

• Three cheers to Matthew Landauer of the Open Australia Foundation for instigating the most excellent ElectionLeaflets.org.au site, a repository for user-contributed scans and photos of electoral material.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,112 comments on “Highlights of day five”

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  1. JulieBishopMP

    Leaks on national security meetings damaging to Rudd. Who would benefit from such leaks I wonder? 4 minutes ago via mobile web

    Hmmm, Julie Bishop would be an expert at compromising national security, so this is right up her alley…

  4. Julie Bishop was banging on about it earlier today – saying that it’d be a conflict of interest if KR did a gig for the UN.

    She’s just jealous because nobody would ever INVITE her for something like that — loose lips and all that!

    Abbott confirmed she would be FA minister in his new govt. Even if you liked Abbott (cough cough — gag) nobody in their right mind would want her in that position! But then again, nobody has said Abbott is of a right mind, have they?

  5. To Speak of Pebbles@1001

    JulieBishopMP

    Leaks on national security meetings damaging to Rudd. Who would benefit from such leaks I wonder? 4 minutes ago via mobile web

    Hmmm, Julie Bishop would be an expert at compromising national security, so this is right up her alley…

    Just reminded her 🙂

    Frank Calabrese frankscan65

    @JulieBishopMP Remember this Julie ??  http://www.smh.com.au/national/australia-forges-passports-too-says-bishop-20100525-wa6b.html?  I’d Zip less than 5 seconds ago via web in reply to JulieBishopMP

  6. [She’s just jealous because nobody would ever INVITE her for something like that — loose lips and all that!]
    Mesma would be lucky to get an invite to a CWA meeting.

  7. [And, I think, Lionel Bowen and Bob Katter Snr were both WWII veterans that also retired at the 1990 election?]

    Not Bowen, according to the Parliamentary Handbook. Katter joined the AMF in 1936, but resigned his commission in 1943 for health reasons. I don’t think he served overseas. If he did the Handbook doesn’t say so. A “veteran” is one who has served in an operational theatre. (I didn’t know this until Mike Kelly told me recently.) Now that I look, I see that Clarrie Millar (Nat, Wide Bay) served in the RAAF 1943-45, but I don’t know where. He also retired in 1990.

    Bill Grayden was a WW2 veteran who retired from the WA parliament in 1993. I don’t know of any other WW2 vets who were MPs later than that.

  9. [I can picture J Bishop …]

    Oh please, Victoria. I’m about to go to bed. Now with that picture in mind I’ll have nightmares …

  10. Greentard @993 Good stuff interesting interview.

    Crispy @ 991

    I noticed the AGW debate polarising along ideological lines. A sad development that, unless the climate change issue becomes so compelling it damages the right fatally before they realise what’s happening.

    The whole ‘scientist=eviro/hippy/fascist’ meme pushed by the hard right is just so absurd it’s laughable. Although I’m not a professional scientist I’ve been interested in science nearly all my life and have an undergrad degree in physics. The typical denier doesn’t normally have the faintest interest in science yet suddenly decides they know better when scientific reality might impinge on their her right to consume and pollute. Very sad.

  15. [The whole ’scientist=eviro/hippy/fascist’ meme pushed by the hard right is just so absurd it’s laughable. Although I’m not a professional scientist I’ve been interested in science nearly all my life and have an undergrad degree in physics. The typical denier doesn’t normally have the faintest interest in science yet suddenly decides they know better when scientific reality might impinge on their her right to consume and pollute. Very sad.]

    Both scientists and people involved in the arts are considered fringe-dweller loonies because our awareness extends beyond dollars and cents. To have credence with the Libs you must be an economist or a lawyer.

  18. [To have credence with the Libs you must be an economist or a lawyer.]

    Bondcorp had a board consisting almost exclusively of Accountants and Lawyers when it went belly-up

  23. [Finally we got the Pakistani’s out — 170 behind …. we can win this! (Do I sound like a Liberal sympathiser?)]

    Never underestimate the ability of the Pakistanis to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory…

  24. [The whole ’scientist=eviro/hippy/fascist’ meme pushed by the hard right is just so absurd it’s laughable ]

    The biggest driver of science is defence…hardly hippy.

  25. Spunds like a few unhappy campers in the ranks of the Libs at the moment.

    [THE Coalition’s campaign headquarters is finally fully operational, six days after Prime Minister Julia Gillard called the election.

    Many journalists covering the campaign have been in the dark over Opposition Leader Tony Abbott’s movements and left searching for statements by shadow ministers.

    Two senior opposition frontbenchers have already warned The Australian there will be a push to remove Liberal Party director Brian Loughnane after the election.

    Their comments reflect long-standing concerns within the party over Mr Loughnane, who also ran the Coalition’s unsuccessful 2007 campaign.

    Media outlets finally received an advisory notice this morning giving contacts for the campaign and details of how to receive the Opposition’s statements. ]
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/opposition-launches-campaign-headquarters-six-days-late/story-fn59niix-1225895527062

  27. Has any MSN said specific how many meetings Kevin Rudd missed , where was he at those times , and that Julia as D PM was chair , or do such facts hurt there “story”

    as it is , it does becomes a neg N/S issue which is never helpful , then I ? its suss timing as it takes oxogen from Julia on CC , and its like Oakes ? suss timing of Julia’s press club talk

  29. [As revealed by The Australian yesterday, the Coalition HQ will be on Collins Street, in the heart of Melbourne’s financial district.

    The CHQ spokesman will be frontbencher Andrew Robb, the Liberal Party federal director for John Howard’s successful 1996 campaign. ]

    One could almost think that Brian Loughnane has been sidelined already. Not to worry, Robb’s just as bad. Lots of fun times coming up! 😉

  30. Re WW2 veterans in Parliament.
    Tom Uren not just a vet., but an ex-POW, of the Japs in Changi.
    I have known a number of POWs from the Pacific campaign and they were, without exception, fine human beings.
    Uren is proof that, despite the meme ofthe Lib jingoists, the 2nd AIF, like the 1st, was not the monopoly of political conservatives.

  31. [Two senior opposition frontbenchers have already warned The Australian there will be a push to remove Liberal Party director Brian Loughnane after the election.]
    Wow, the Coalition has given up!

  34. On the US, if Obama get beaten you lot and the rest of the world want to get down on their knees and hope the stupid yanks don’t elect one of the ignorant racist nongs with tea party connections.
    Imagine Glen Beck Hannity and Murdock as presidential advisers,you would have about another 3 wars to keep the ones we have now going,I just hope the yanks aren’t as dumb as they appear to be

  36. Morgan Poll on leadership and PPM, as stated in chaneel 10’s News tonight.
    Gillard preferred over Rudd 52% – 21%. Turnbull over Abbott – 29% – 24% (tied with Hockey). Julia is PPM 2 to 1. That is all.

  38. I cant imagine why Julie Bishop would want to go hard on any kind of actual national security issue after her relativley recent performance on the passports thing?

    Is this a case of, “please sir, may i have another” played out in public?? Still, gives Stephen Smith a chance to get more activley involved in the campaign i guess.

    On CC:

    “The whole ’scientist=eviro/hippy/fascist’ meme pushed by the hard right is just so absurd it’s laughable ”

    Its a factor, but Julia G has a pretty strong hand to play on this, and can demolish the OOpo if they try and dispute the science. A few weeks ago the CSIRO released their report into this and say its happening. They used what was described as a “robust” data set from the BOM for a lot of this work.

    When THE premier applied science and technology organisation in the country comes out with a report such as that, then i think that the Government is entitled to consider that the science is settled and act accordingly.

    I mean, if Treasury gives them advice on economic matters and they turn around and claim that advice is bullbutter, then it its a major scandal. Is the advice of CSIRO worth less???

    Unfortunatley the media cares nothing except for a conflict and “story”. They have played up the AGW denialists to the point where someone who has claimed that AGW is “Crap” is actually the pretender to the highest effective political office in the land.

    If Julia G can come up with a plan for significant action in the next term of Government with regard to renewable energy development, and a program to try and build an Australian consensus on how to legislate a Carbon Price, then that is a VERY good thing. I think that it is also about all that can be done, politically, at the moment.

    Abbootts rabble seem to me to have ruled out a Carbon Price of any sort as part of their plan (which i dont think they believe in anyway) which they cant be trusted to follow through on.

    An emphatic victory for the ALP in the HoR this election and the Greens holding BOP in the Senate is i think the best possible outcome for 2010 in terms of CC action. Then much will hang on the Greens behaving realistically in the Senate.

  40. [Does this side do html? I’ve forgotten. How are people doing italic quotes from previous comments?]

    yes it does. To quote however you just put the quoted text inside [ ]. If you past links the software converts them into <a> tags, but you can use the <a> to embed a link in your text.

  41. [That is all.]
    I was really only using that as a sign off rather than a comment on the poll. I’m very happy with those figures.

  42. [ How are people doing italic quotes from previous comments? ]

    Thanks Scorpio!

    What about links… (name)[URLblah.blah] doesn’t seem to work…?

  43. [Turnbull over Abbott – 29% – 24% (tied with Hockey). Julia is PPM 2 to 1. That is all.]
    This is hilarious. The Liberals are running a campaign without their most popular leader. But I guess that\’s the decision they made last December.

  46. Following issue should have no real impact on the campaign but may cause some short term discomfort for the PM.

    Jules is the proud number 1 ticket holder of the Western Bulldogs and at present that club has just fired a high profile player in a manner that may make the PM fell a little uneasy.

    The Club may have had valid reasons to do what it dod but still we have a Liberal Party that is badly in need of something to fling at the PM and this being a I.R type issue may need the ALP to have some sort of response ready

  47. Well, my great hope that ABC24 would be a balanced and intellectual masthead, in counterpoint to Faux News, has been dashed.

    What a load of rightwingnuttery.

    Day One: Muslims!! BOO!!, Labor!! BOO!!, Unions!! BOO!!, Indonesians!! BOO!!

    Disgraceful.

  48. mexicanbeemer@1046

    Following issue should have no real impact on the campaign but may cause some short term discomfort for the PM.

    Jules is the proud number 1 ticket holder of the Western Bulldogs and at present that club has just fired a high profile player in a manner that may make the PM fell a little uneasy.

    The Club may have had valid reasons to do what it dod but still we have a Liberal Party that is badly in need of something to fling at the PM and this being a I.R type issue may need the ALP to have some sort of response ready

    Only an issue in the AFL States.

  49. [Question: Why are some douchebags within the govt still leaking against Rudd?]

    What makes you think there is leaking? The ABC24 story is a 2 year old story simply updated through an interview with a discredited though major player in the children overboard affair. This has nothing to do with leaks from Gillard’s government.

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