Highlights of day five

With just 31 days left to go:

• Two pieces of polling intelligence have emerged today on what appears to be a widening electoral gender gap. The Australian reports the weekend’s 55-45 Newspoll had Labor leading 44 per cent to 33 per cent on the primary vote among women, but trailing 39 per cent to 42 per cent among men. We are also told that the gender gap in Tony Abbott’s personal rating is now at nine points, up from four in April. As George Megalogenis noted last week, this is likely to hit the Liberals in seats with a high concentration of working women, of which Cameron Stewart of The Australian identifies four: Bennelong, Franklin, Brisbane and Deakin. The Herald-Sun also reports that the weekend’s 50-50 Galaxy poll had Julia Gillard’s preferred prime minister lead at 58-31 among women and 51-40 among men.

• The Herald Sun further informs us that 59 per cent of respondents from the Galaxy survey supported a levy on bank profits similar to that of the mining tax, not that either party is advocating such a thing. Only 28 per cent of respondents said they were opposed.

• Leisa Scott of the Courier-Mail reports that Jen Sackley, unsuccessful LNP preselection hopeful for Leichhardt, will run as an independent. Sackley has complained of a “bullying culture” in the party, and proclaimed Labor’s Leichhardt MP Jim Turnour to be of superior “stature” to Warren Entsch, the former Liberal member who is coming out of retirement to run again for the LNP.

Possum calculates the electoral impact of Labor’s decision to lock in an election date that gave voters only one weekday to get their enrolment in order. This is found to be in the order of fractions of 0.1 per cent, but might be a bit higher in seats with a particularly high concentration of young voters. The most marginal of these are identified as Melbourne, Ryan, Swan, Herbert, Macarthur, Solomon and Cowan.

• Verona Burgess of the Australian Financial Review notes the electoral impact of public service cuts not just on the Australian Capital Territory, where they might make life difficult for Liberal Senator Gary Humphries, but also in Eden-Monaro. As well as housing many of Canberra’s public servants in Queanbeyan, the famous bellwether electorate also encompasses Batemans Bay on the south coast, which Burgess tells us is known as “little Canberra-by-the-sea” due to its concentration of public agencies.

• Three cheers to Matthew Landauer of the Open Australia Foundation for instigating the most excellent ElectionLeaflets.org.au site, a repository for user-contributed scans and photos of electoral material.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,112 comments on “Highlights of day five”

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  1. [Well, all they’d need is Obama, Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi and Daniel Inoye to suddenly disappear and the job is hers]

    They had better get started then! 🙂

  2. The problem for the OO with this Rudd national security beat up is that the story has come from the new ABC24 service. Now there’s a dilemma – to publish second hand news from the enemy or to ignore? hmmm

  3. Tom Hawkins@951

    The problem for the OO with this Rudd national security beat up is that the story has come from the new ABC24 service. Now there’s a dilemma – to publish second hand news from the enemy or to ignore? hmmm

    Considering the OO “Broke” this story 2 years ago, I reckon they’ll use it to beat the ABC over the head with it.

  4. Gusface,

    [a pre-planned op methinks]

    Yeah, but meant to damage the Ruddster. Don;t think it will fly too well against JG.

    Anyway, Abbott’s mob will come out with a howler and trump it.

    You can bet on it given the level of desperation on show so far.

  5. 949

    Of course and Obama shouldn’t be tarred with all that. But trouble is – he will to a certain extent. You can only blame Bush for so long (however unfair that is).

    That’s what makes 2012 tough.

    That said, I still think he’ll likely be re-elected. But I think a fresh face like Hillary would have a better shot and would more easily re-energise the base, while appearing sufficiently distant from the economic disasters that have befallen the US.

  6. It will trump Gillard’s CC announcement. How coincidental.
    Maybe Gillard could cite the two year old article.
    They probably scrounged around for stories that ‘could’ grow legs. A bit of tweeking here & there. Sensationalise it and bingo!
    An explosive story that will keep the chooks preoccupied.

  7. Surely the Rudd story runs counter to the dominate meme that he was a control freak who micro-managed every detail and worked his people to death? Now they’re saying he couldn’t be bothered with national security meetings and sent along his chief of staff, who’d just started shaving and got off his red P plates. People will be scratching their heads, not outraged.

  8. [Well, all they’d need is Obama, Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi and Daniel Inoye to suddenly disappear and the job is hers]

    It’s been 20 years since the last World War II veteran retired from the Australian Parliament (Tom Uren), but in the US Dan Inouye, winner of the Bronze Star and DSC, now rising 86, is still a Senator.

  9. Boerwar – you notice that headline says ‘tipped to report’ so if she doesn’t report it now then the headlines will be ‘Gillard backflips on reporting CC policy’.

    DarrenL – betcha Julie Bishop won’t be able to help herself. She’ll go after Gillard tomorrow.

    I watched a little of the Syd. Institute speech with Lenore Taylor and her co-author on the book about the GFC. She told the audience that there were rumblings about Kev’s chaotic work practices when she was doing interviews for her book. I didn’t have time to watch it all but I think she is an impressive journo.

  10. [The problem for the OO with this Rudd national security beat up is that the story has come from the new ABC24 service. Now there’s a dilemma – to publish second hand news from the enemy or to ignore? hmmm]

    I can’t see how News Ltd and the ABC are “enemies” when there’s so many of Murdoch’s biggest names (conservatives to a man) ON the abc. We’ve got got:

    Denis Shannahan
    Glen Milne
    Piers Akerman
    Andrew Bolt
    Tim Blair

    either appearing and/or writing regularly on their ABC. And probably others from News Ltd whose name escapes me at present.

  11. Darren Laver. Bush and the Republicans were in power for eight years. They dumped a huge pile of crap on the US, and Obama and the Democrats have been in power for all of 18 months. To fix what ails the US is damn near impossible.

  12. The thing is, if someone hypothetically wanted to take out the pres, vice pres, speaker and pres pro tem, to make Hillary president they missed their best window at the end of last month with Robert Byrd, Inouye’s predecessor in that role, died.

  13. Darren Laver.
    Yes, and of course we might add the vitriolic right wing media moguls including our beloved Murdoch, undermining any efforts by the Govt to govern the country properly. Unfortunately, Americans can be insular and not see their way clear to the future with some sacrifice and understanding of where they are and where they need to go.

  14. Hillary should pick a good moment to resign, then run for the Dem nomination in 2012, on a platform of “Only I can work with Julia Gillard to save the world from male screw-ups.”

  15. [Hillary should pick a good moment to resign, then run for the Dem nomination in 2012, on a platform of “Only I can work with Julia Gillard to save the world from male screw-ups.”]

    LOL

  16. [I can’t see how News Ltd and the ABC are “enemies”

    Enemies in the sense that they are both after the same market i.e. people who want to watch 24 hour news. I wonder how much Sky charge for their news to be screened in airport terminals and the like. The new competition might just have push their price down a notch or two. The fact that News hacks are cross pollinating is another matter entirely. Maybe Rupert will think again about his brand name becoming diluted with his hacks now wearing two hats.

  17. Hillary Clinton 2012

    Maybe Obama could just step aside to save the ignominy of a primary contest against an incumbent president.

    As an aside, I note the Democrats have made their primary schedule a lot later in 2012 than it was in 2008 (the thinking that it’s not a contest).

  18. [Maybe Obama could just step aside to save the ignominy of a primary contest against an incumbent president.]
    Unbelievable. Yesterday Obama got the biggest financial reform through since 1930, and earlier this year got the first meaningful health care reform through since 1964. The economy won\’t be crap forever.

  19. ABC News saying that Gillard will announce tomorrow a ‘citizens assembly’ which will gauge community’s feelings about putting a price on carbon. Plus a scientific panel.

  20. Well, here’s a milestone of sorts.

    Was cleaning out a cupboard tonight and found my old Kevin-07 T-shirts.

    Should I be ashamed to say I have just put them in the garbage bin?

  21. [Was cleaning out a cupboard tonight and found my old Kevin-07 T-shirts.

    Should I be ashamed to say I have just put them in the garbage bin?]

    You should stick ’em on eBay! Maybe the Chinese factory will buy them back for a cent each?

  22. BB

    Shame shame shame
    Go get them out of the bin immediately

    Remember this is the man who on his first day in parliament as Prime Minister delivered an apology to the stolen generation. That alone marks him highly amongst all PMs.

  23. Plus investment in renewables.

    Building a consensus on a price on carbon does it fore me. HTVC time coming up.

    We need to make sure that the nest of denialists who currently hold the BOP in the Parliamentary Liberal Party are irrelevant to Australia’s future.

  24. BB

    Yes, I think you should take yourself to the naughty corner. For about six months after that election I teared up every time I heard the words ‘Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’, because I wasn’t hearing ‘Prime Minister John Howard’ any more. Frame the T-shirt for that reason alone.

    I remember posters in here (Candles? Glen?) saying ‘Rudd better watch his back if he wins. Gillard will have the knife out in no time.’ And we all laughed and laughed. Hmm.

  25. [Hillary Clinton 2012 – Maybe Obama could just step aside to save the ignominy of a primary contest against an incumbent president.]

    it’s time the Three Amigos ride, love and fight again. 👿

  26. Oh Dear – Toolman’s Interviewee has some form it seems.

    mfarnsworth

    So Admiral Barrie is one of the chief witnesses against Rudd – just looking at p600 of Kelly’s “The March of Patriots” re children overboard less than a minute ago via TweetDeck]

    And

    Malcolm Farnsworth mfarnsworth

    “But Barrie was a CDF who did not want to be convinced the story was wrong.” – Kelly, p600, The March of Patriots less than 20 seconds ago via TweetDeck

  27. tth@915: Yet another wrong remark from you.

    It is not a “conflict of interest” to have Australian politicians involved in UN processes.

    The United Nations is just that: an organisation of nations i.e. governments. It is not a “world government” as your apparent soulmates in the CEC would have it.

    It is not in the least unusual to have serving Ministers or parliamentarians having UN roles. No doubt this one will provoke another sneer from you, but Dr Herbert Vere Evatt PC LLD MA was President of the UN General Assembly while also being Australian Minister for Foreign Affairs, Attorney General and Member for Barton.

  28. This is funny:

    [REPORTER: Do you feel like a dill, Admiral?

    ADMIRAL CHRIS BARRIE: I don’t feel like a dill.

    REPORTER: Why not?]

    LOL

  29. [Hillary Clinton 2012 – Maybe Obama could just step aside to save the ignominy of a primary contest against an incumbent president.]
    What a cat fight of an election that would be: Rudd vs Obama to become UN Secretary General 😀

  30. TSOP and imacca:

    Another astronomy nerd here. The biggest binoculars I’ve looked through were 8 inchers (twin Naglers of course).

    What got me interested in political debates was the subject of climate-change after I stumbled across deniers making up lies about astronomy and astrophysics to support their pathetic denialist assertions.

    Astronomy nerds for a better Australia indeed!

  31. Psephos@958: “It’s been 20 years since the last World War II veteran retired from the Australian Parliament (Tom Uren)”

    And, I think, Lionel Bowen and Bob Katter Snr were both WWII veterans that also retired at the 1990 election?

    d

  32. Think Big

    I came to climate change following an interest in politics. I noticed the AGW debate polarising along ideological lines. A sad development that, unless the climate change issue becomes so compelling it damages the right fatally before they realise what’s happening.

  33. Seems that Barrie could be accused of protecting the Liberal government by remaining silent throughout the election campaign and only ‘came clean’ when evidence that confirmed that no children had been thrown overboard.

    Shifty?

    So with that in mind today’s beat up by Uhlmann can be seen in a rather different light.

  34. [What got me interested in political debates was the subject of climate-change after I stumbled across deniers making up lies about astronomy and astrophysics to support their pathetic denialist assertions.]
    You may find this interview with John Doyle interesting:
    http://www.abc.net.au/rn/bigideas/stories/2006/1681388.htm

    He says that his moral outlook on life started when he became an amateur astronomer, which lead him to reading about science and from their philosophy.

  35. Breaking news on ABC24 as read by the newsreader: Archbishop Desmond Tutu is withdrawing from public life. Therein lies the problem very little to report so fill in the gaps with nothing. They needed a breaking story to launch the channel. So they come up with a non story of Kevin Rudd being late for meetings.

  36. [a non story of Kevin Rudd being late for meetings.]

    Trivialise it all you want – but you’re right to the extent that it’s now a detail of history, rather than news.

    You’d be (rightly) going ape if Howard had behaved in this way.

  37. “”You’d be (rightly) going ape if Howard had behaved in this way.””

    But Howard did behave in this way – in the subsequent interview it stated that when Howard did not attend the Deputy PM chaired the meeting which is what occured when Rudd did not attend. This report on process is irrelevant what is relevant is if major decisions of national consequence were taken by Rudds chief of staff – nothing on that was mentioned hence it is not a story.

  38. JulieBishopMP

    Leaks on national security meetings damaging to Rudd. Who would benefit from such leaks I wonder? 4 minutes ago via mobile web

  39. [They needed a breaking story to launch the channel. So they come up with a non story of Kevin Rudd being late for meetings.]

    The ABC news & current affairs department has been trumpeting its credentials ever since they broke the news of Rudd’s demise. They won’t of course admit that that story would have been broken by another outlet within minutes had the ABC not received the scoop.

    So with that scalp hanging off of the crews collective belt for 3 or 4 weeks now they have been looking for a major story to launch the 24 channel and again trumpet their amazing investigative journalism. The trouble with tonight is that it wasn’t so much a trumpet but rather a kazoo of a story…. a story that had broken (as someone reminded me of earlier) two years ago. And to moderise the story they interviewed a throughly discredited retired Admiral who clearly has a grudge to settle with the former opposition foreign minister who had so successfully attacked the Howard government and in turn destroyed his credibility.

    Tonight’s story is plain simple unadulterated bull crap.

    Rather pathetic really.

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