Highlights of day three

Peter van Onselen offers the following on internal polling in The Australian:

The Australian understands that Labor’s track polling shows its support is lifting in all states except Queensland, where the combinations of the toppling of Kevin Rudd (a local boy) and the deep unpopularity of the state government and Premier Anna Bligh are stifling support. The numbers suggest Labor could lose a host of seats in the Sunshine State. Attempts to arrest the decline include efforts by candidates to localise campaigns, along with sending Julia Gillard to Queensland for the early part of the campaign to break down the growing angst against her for tearing down an elected prime minister. Labor sources point out the irony is that during Rudd’s leadership, Queensland had been a problematic state where dissatisfaction with the job he was doing was high.

Perhaps surprisingly, the dip in support for Labor in Western Australia has been contained and a small upsurge has occurred. The same results have been seen in NSW on the strength of Labor’s changed border protection policy under Ms Gillard. The Coalition is facing financial constraints and is not doing anywhere near the amount of expensive track polling it did at the last election, or as much as Labor is doing now, according to one senior Liberal source. But the quantitative research the Coalition has done is said to have buoyed Tony Abbott and Brian Loughnane about their chances of a competitive result or even an upset victory. The Coalition is apparently tracking better in key marginal seats than published polls with wider samples such as Newspoll might suggest.

Around the grounds:

• Labor and the Greens have confirmed a preference deal in which the latter will receive Senate preferences across the country, and the former will get lower house preferences in 44 of 50 marginal seats. The Sydney Morning Herald reports local Greens in six seats have refused to abide by the deal: Lindsay and Gilmore in NSW, Herbert, Blair and Dawson in Queensland, and Sturt in South Australia.

• While Tony Abbott was having a rough ride in Melbourne, Julia Gillard spent the first weekday of the campaign targeting the Townsville seat of Herbert, where Liberal member Peter Lindsay is retiring and redistribution has nudged the seat from super-marginal Liberal to super-marginal Labor. Gillard spent the visit spruiking the Better Regional Cities policy which was unveiled the on Sunday, which will commit $200 million to affordable housing in regional cities.

• The Australian’s Samantha Maiden and Dennis Shanahan have both written today of a slick and efficient early campaign performance from Labor’s media unit that is leaving the opposition in its wake. According to Maiden, “media organisations are being carpet-bombed by an ALP campaign unit on steroids that is racing out media alerts, audio files of Coalition gaffes and interview transcripts via the social networking site Twitter”. The Sydney Morning Herald reports the Liberal campaign headquarters will not be operational until today.

• The ABC reports police have ruled out a firearm being responsible for damage to the home and campaign office of Brent Thomas, Labor’s candidate for Hughes, with a slingshot deemed more likely.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,348 comments on “Highlights of day three”

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  2. Does anyone have on the ground knowledge from QLd

    Is there a swing on to the libs?
    If so why?
    and where?
    What size?

  3. Victoria
    [Socrates. Have you heard about Greek journalist killed on doorstep at hs home. Apparently, he was about to expose corruption. Journos name was Sokratis.]
    OMG He was shot 15 times but the cops reckon it is a terrorist group.Sect of Revolutionaries
    They are not sure whether he was about to expose a story, (corruption). That is speculation at this time but he had been subjected to many threats.

  7. He is joking right…says his strategy started with budget reply speech, then Joe Hockey and Andrew Robb speech…LOL

    $1.2bn extra spending cuts

  8. Hockey is the background. He was in Melbourne for that speech yesterday too. Both senior guys in Melbourne 2 days running??

  10. Is this the best they can do? Debt and deficit the biggest issue of the campaign. Well, not according to independent financial commentators, or Glenn Stevens or Ken Henry. Only Liberal and National politicians think this is a big problem. This isn’t an election-winning strategy.

  11. Joe:”Labor is to deficits what Paris hilton is to celibacy”

    What is it with this Jesuits, obsessed with virginity??

  17. To be totally honest I would not be surprised if we start getting some assassination attempts at the political level in Greece.
    Poor Papandreou has ruffled some feathers and exposed a gamit of corrupt government loans. The government & the IMF are on the hunt through Europe for missing billions.

  18. While it is Mickey Mouse stuff from Tone it is an interesting point Joe makes that Labor havent outlined any savings to the bottom line.

  24. [What is it with this Jesuits]

    It’s just a silly line anyway: an attempt at humour that falls flat, and inappropriate for the occasion too.

  25. [While it is Mickey Mouse stuff from Tone it is an interesting point Joe makes that Labor havent outlined any savings to the bottom line.]

    What’s that even supposed to mean? They haven’t cut their own policies in the campaign? They have been managing the economy for 3 years with all sorts of adjustments, and plan on surplus by 2013.

    It’s pretty sad if “Cuts to the bottom line” is a Liberal Party end in itself.

  26. At least Robb didn’t shout.

    But seriously, what’s the announcement? They can’t just say we’ve got savings and refuse to specify what’s being cut.

  27. Dee. Greece has been going through some serious social, financial and obviously political woes for quite some time. As a sideline, Goldman Sachs are currently trying to stop Australian entities from suing them for losses incurred, and Goldman Sachs are known to have helped cook the government books in Greece over the years gone by. There is a lot going on, and who knows where it will lead.

  28. I would’ve thought the benefits to the Greens of the preference deal were obvious? Increased Senate preference flow? Greater chance of electing Greens senators?

  31. [that Labor havent outlined any savings to the bottom line.]

    juliA from what I understand wtte there would be nothing new in spending in the
    re the election

  36. [Is it wise for Abbott to smear the Greens?]

    That’s the poor bugger’s exclusive m.o. He’ll be reduced to a Piers-like laughing stock by the end of this campaign if he isn’t already. Honestly, he’s making Latham’s performance seem stately so far.

  38. [female jurnos dont like Tone quelle supris]

    back in Jan / feb somewhere any way we where being told by female journalists that we did like him ahhh i remember thinking what!

  39. On average interest rates are lower under the Coalition than Labor. So we’ve got boats from ’01, interest rates from ’04. What do we have from ’07 (not an ETS) and ’98? 🙂

  48. Victoria very interesting subject, i often wonder how the French keep their beautiful castles etc in good order and still doing them up because it does attract tourists
    But when in Rome i could not beleive how neglected they are they say there that the tourists will not come if they repair them ( recently heard that on a doco) wtte
    But one day they may not have any,
    Son was in Greece and said its similar there.

    And every where you go in italy and also greece it seems its what will you pay me for that etc bartaring for everything, surley that does not help and economy etc
    re for example a gst may they have similar you may know about that interested.

  50. [Why did News Radio cut it off before questions? Hopeless.]

    Because they wanted the Liberal propaganda pure from distractions?

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