The West Australian has published another small-sample Patterson Market Research-Westpoll survey (401 respondents) to follow on the poll of June 12, which had the federal Coalition with a gaping two-party lead in WA of 62-38. The newer poll paints a much rosier picture for Labor, who are up 8 per cent on the primary vote to 36 per cent and have narrowed the two-party deficit to 54.5-45.5. This would mean a 1.2 per cent swing to the Coalition, which would only threaten Labor in Hasluck and leave them well clear in their other three seats. In contrast to every other poll since the leadership change, this one shows Labor’s gains coming at the expense of the Coalition, who are down seven points on the primary vote to 49 per cent. The Greens are steady on 9 per cent, but the result in the earlier poll did not square with last week’s Newspoll quarterly geographic breakdown which had it at 16 per cent. The Nielsen survey of late last week included a sub-sample of 100 Western Australian voters, which had the Coalition on 50 per cent, Labor on 42 per cent and the Greens on 5 per cent.
UPDATE: Roy Morgan throws a curve ball: a phone poll of 600 respondents conducted between Friday and Monday which has the Coalition leading 51.5-48.5 on two-party, and 45.5 per cent to 38.5 per cent on the primary vote (with the Greens on 9 per cent). It should be stressed that this is a phone poll as distinct from the weekend face-to-face surveys Morgan usually publishes on Fridays, which are the most Labor-leaning in the business. The results of this poll and the one from Friday should thus not be compared, though the Morgan press release does just that. The last Morgan phone poll was conducted May 26-67, and had Labor at 37.5 per cent on primary, the Coalition on 43 per cent and the Greens on 11.5 per cent, with two-party on 50-50. The margin of error on the poll is about 4 per cent. For those confused by this apparently aberrant result, Possum offers the clarification that “exogenous shocks have a large random component to the resultant impulse response function”.
UPDATE 2: Julia Gillard’s atheism having emerged as an issue, I thought I’d crunch some Australian Election Study survey data on church attendance and voting behaviour, as there have been suggestions Labor will suffer the loss of Christian voters attracted by Kevin Rudd. Defining church attenders as those who go at least once a year and everyone else as non-attenders, 2007 was unusual out of elections going back to 1993 for the narrow gap between the Coalition church attender vote and the total Coalition vote – 2.6 per cent, whereas in other years it had ranged from 5.5 per cent to 7.5 per cent. However, the Labor vote was unexceptional: 1.0 per cent lower for church-attenders than the Labor vote overall, in keeping with an overall range from 3.9 per cent lower to 0.3 per cent higher.
[Why cant you guys just admit it – you hated Rudd because he was different, because he wasn’t a true labor man, because he ignored caucus and the factions.]
I’ve said half a dozen times that Rudd’s attempt to rule the Labor Party as though it was the Liberal Party, to treat Caucus as though they were Liberal backbench potplants, was the ultimate cause of his failure. There were more proximate causes, but that was the basic problem.
[I can’t believe we’re still arguimg the rights and wrongs of Rudd’s downfall. It’s happened. Time to go forward. Either vote for Gillard or Abbott or neither. Each person needs to make up their mind.]
No problems there Gary. I moved on pretty quickly, what still gets up my goat however is the revisionism of the plotters. They knifed Rudd because to them, he was a prick. Poor diddums.
Maybe he was a prick, maybe he deserved his fate, dunno. I just want the assassins to come out and have the honesty to say “we knifed the bastard because we hated him”.
Sad to hear Peter Bowers has died. He was an uncommonly courageous journalist.
Laocoon @ 139
My father in law – resident in Corangamite – was telling me a few weeks back that Sarah Henderson was very impressive. He will still be voting for the ALP however.
He puts the Libs loss last time all down to Stewart McArthur sticking around for too long.
Annabelle Crabb highlighting the difference between Gillard and Rudd.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/06/29/2939797.htm?site=thedrum
Psephos
[Untrue. We are spending billions on renewables. We just insulated a million homes ffs. And that reminds me – not supporting Garrett and surrendering on the HIS was a big negative for Rudd in Caucus. Loyalty goes two ways.]
My understanding is that we have allocated money in the forward estimates to renewables. Not that we are currently spending money. The insulation was a good program and Garrett was hung out to dry by Rudd for little benefit.
We have however spent more money developing on the infrastructure to export coal than we intend to spend on renewables.
Itep
[Some people seem to be suggesting Rudd was bigger than the party. The bitterness is astounding.]
No! That is not the case. The party is everything.
I admire Gillard and think she is more than competant and I will fight to my last breath to make sure the Rabbott doesn’t get in.
That doesn’t mean I should ignore what happened or avoid questioning the demonising & execution of one of our own.
I love the ALP as do my parents,[in their eighties]but we can see that there was a long, slow campaign to discredit Rudd. We were suppose to be the party that was not beholden to corporations or factional interests.
Isn’t that what we told the people at the 2007 election?
[I just want the assassins to come out and have the honesty to say “we knifed the bastard because we hated him”.]
That would be very amateur hour. That’s what Tuckey did after the coup against Howard in 1987, remember? He went on Four Corners and boasted about it! You seriously think Arbib should do that? You must be mad.
[coup against Howard in 1987] Oops – 1989.
“the ALP was indeed in very real danger of losing an election were one held over the last three months and the result was compatible with the complete polling aggregates.”
But the election was not held over the last three months it was going to be held in the next 5-6mths. Rudd had proven campaiging and debating skills, the polls were still in Labors favor – he would of won an election. Rudd was still preferred PM. The coal seam methane outcome was negotiated under Rudd. Rudd was an intellectual and though differently and deserves respect from the party not ridicule.
I wouldn’t expect Arbib to do anything honourable. The less said about him the better.
*back later*
[You obviously know less than nothing about the Labor Party.]
I know considerably more now than I did this time last week. 😆
Annabelle Crabb is part of a profession that helped promote the perception that Rudd believed in a 36 mill population for Australia. Rudd himself didn’t help with that perception by saying he believed in a big Austrlia. Now Annabelle wants to make JG the villain. All JG is saying is what Rudd was trying to say eventually after a bad start. How does that make her the villain in this?
[ Rudd became increasingly paranoid & isolated because he was being slowly done over from within. ]
KR was his own worst enemy, he neglected to play the internal politics and if you do that in any organisation intevitably you lose. He believed his own story that he was a post factional player, he wasn’t and so when he lost external support it was all over bar the funeral.
[Sad to hear Peter Bowers has died. He was an uncommonly courageous journalist.]
I have missed Peter Bowers since the day he hung up his notebook and pen. A very good journo and sadly missed.
As a fellow traveler, this red head certainly has sown up my vote.
Yes, When I find myself in times of trouble, mother Gillard comes to me,
speaking words of wisdom, let it be.
[Julia Gillard says she has great respect for religion, even though she is a non-believer.
Ms Gillard, who has described herself as a non-practising Baptist, told ABC Radio today she was not worried about losing the Christian vote drawn by her predecessors Kevin Rudd and John Howard.
She explained she was raised in the Baptist tradition – even winning prizes for remembering Bible verses – but as an adult she had formed different views.
”I’m not going to pretend a faith I don’t feel,” she said.
”For people of faith I think the greatest compliment I could pay to them is to respect their genuinely held beliefs and not to engage in some pretence about mine.”
Ms Gillard said she never thought it was the right thing for her to go through religious rituals for the sake of appearance.
”I am what I am, and people will judge that.”]
http://www.smh.com.au/national/crean-to-rudd-get-on-with-it-20100629-zgcg.html?autostart=1
gillard will not want to leave Rudd as a back bencher for too long as he will get up to all sorts of trouble. It will be interesting to see if he wants Foreign affairs or a domestic portfolio – it will depend on what his long term objectives are.
[No problems there Gary. I moved on pretty quickly]
Henry, your posts suggest you haven’t.
So everybody,
Do we know what Gillards platform is?
So far we have:
-better communication
-more consultation in cabinet and caucus
-not Kevin Rudd
-fear campaign against tony abbott and workchoices II
-climate change a priority (but nothing serious because we think AUstralians dont want anything serious)
-soothe fears over boat people
-resolve mining tax
Anything else?
blue_green – and just what would you expect after 4 days?
Finns
Have a look at all the supporting comments on the ABC reporting of Julia’s statement on religion. Looks like another plus.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/06/29/2939879.htm?section=justin#comments
blue green
aaarrrgghhh – how this kind of misunderstanding niggles me!!
The Labor party isn’t the Liberal party. Our policies are not tied to our leader.
Therefore a change of leader doesn’t mean a massive policy overhaul – and in this case, it largely means doing the same things but communicating them better.
the spectator
You might be right, but I cannot see how Rudd will be on the front bench before or after the election. From what all the insiders say he is disliked(hated) by all.
blue_green
Make sure you turn up here around 7.30 PM on election day when the TV experts say that Labor has been returned with an increased majority. I hope TTH is unbanned a week before election day so that he can return here to spit and scream for a week before he is gutted and hung up to dry.
Best wishes,
Tom
Psephos
Add “post-Whitlam” to ALP and I agree with a whole parade thrown in!
As a character on “Charlie Brown” said, Winning isn’t everything, but losing …” means you end up with nothing … or, in Election 2010, Howard Heavier – Abbott’s mob running the nation.
Excerpt Peter Menadue, ABC
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2938940.htm
[Major mining multinationals have invaded the political debate in this country. Unless something is done soon, real power may slip from our elected leaders into the hands of those multinationals and like corporations. Maybe it already has. The mining corporations have already threatened to return for a drive-by advertising blitz on Julia Gillard.]
[The danger these corporations pose is real. As the prominent English judge, Lord Lane, once famously warned: “Loss of freedom seldom happens overnight … oppression does not stand on the doorstep with a toothbrush and a swastika armband. It creeps up step by step, and all of a sudden the unfortunate citizen realises that freedom has gone.”
The Labor caucus was very effective in dispatching Kevin Rudd. I trust it will be just as decisive dealing with this crucial issue. Time is running short.]
What can be done to prevent corporations launching political advertising campaigns? If the ALP win the election that would be first item on the agenda because any hope of introducing a price on carbon will be met with the same behaviour we have witnessed lately.
]
what will his future in the alp be like then ???
“From what all the insiders say he is disliked(hated) by all.”
That will be his challenge going forward. Having said that as long he delivers good policy and outcomes does liking or disliking matter? Also the Labor factions will be driven by polling and power not internal likeability necessarily. If Rudd’s polls had held up he would still be in power despite internal hatred.
Cheers Tom,
[Make sure you turn up here around 7.30 PM on election day when the TV experts say that Labor has been returned with an increased majority. I hope TTH is unbanned a week before election day so that he can return here to spit and scream for a week before he is gutted and hung up to dry.]
If Tony Abbott is still Liberal leader then I hope Gillard is re-elected too. Tony is a nutjob that I would hate to see near the Treasury and policy levers.
I would like, however, to know what Julia stands for and intends to do prior to the election. Are my expectations a little high?
[Julia Gillard says she has great respect for religion, even though she is a non-believer.]
SAD
To be honest, if Julia ran on a campaign with the slogan “vote for me, I am not Tony Abbott” then she would get my vote.
[I would like, however, to know what Julia stands for and intends to do prior to the election. Are my expectations a little high]
I HAVE NONE AT ALL just keeping abbott out and then
dont care much to be honest
Am curious where on the spectrum the die hard Rudd supporters are, he is not a traditional Laborite, and in fact very conservative. Is it loyalty for loyalty’s sake?
if she is any moe than a run of th e mill i will be surprised
Johhny B/the spectator
Laura Tingle today in AFR:
[Offering Kevin Rudd forign affairs might look like an act of generosity (except to the bureaucrats in the Department of Foreign Affairs, who were horrified by the prospect)]
[“And that reminds me – not supporting Garrett and surrendering on the HIS was a big negative for Rudd in Caucus. Loyalty goes two ways.”]
Interestingly enough, the blow torch has been fired up and is now being directed at both Gillard and Garrett.
[ The government axed its $2.45 billion insulation scheme in April after the death of four installers, 100 house fires, and accusations of fraud and unsafe work conditions.
Federal opposition environment spokesman Greg Hunt said the program was a monumental failure.
“All of the incidents occurred under a program that was ill conceived, negligently managed and the problems were denied by key members of the government,” he told AAP.
Mr Hunt said Peter Garrett, who oversaw the project as environment minister, should have been punished by the new Prime Minister Julia Gillard.
Mr Garrett was demoted in February to the Minister for Environment Protection, Heritage and the Arts.
But, Mr Hunt said he should be punished further.
“It’s extraordinary that Julia Gillard has reappointed Peter Garrett without penalty and it’s absolutely clear that there is no penalty for gross systematic failure,” he said.
“Julia Gillard must give a guarantee that Peter Garrett will not be a cabinet minister if she wins.”]
The strategy to cancel the program, admit fault and try and put it behind them rather than dig in and fight for the integrity of the scheme is coming home to bite by giving the Opp’s a good issue to keep alive right up to election day.
[A QUEENSLAND company has been charged following the death of a teenaged worker during the federal government’s {botched} home insulation program.]
http://www.themorningbulletin.com.au/story/2010/06/29/home-insulation-companies-charged/
the spectator 178
Sure that is his personal challenge. Unfortunately, it does matter as we have witnessed over the last few months. Does not make it right, but that is the way it is. I’d like to think, like you, that good policy does matter.
When the election starts we can evaluate the policies that are put forward by all and make a judgement on those policies.
Laocoon 185
That was my point. I honestly cannot see it happening. Maybe in the third term if there is to be a third term.
Spectator and JB
You can be disliked but still respected by the ones you work with. When the respect runs out, that is where is the trouble starts….
[I would like, however, to know what Julia stands for and intends to do prior to the election. Are my expectations a little high?]
Not at all, you’re just a little impatient.
BBP189
True, but I don’t think there was much respect for Kev in the first place. How much of it is his own doing who knows.
Jon
I agreed with his views on what has to be done to improve & move this country forward.
Left, right or eukalele means diddly squat to me.
Gillard is wonderful but that doesn’t mean the lead up to Rudd’s execution should not be scrutinized.
Call me what you like but I, like many others believe Rudd’s demise was clearly devised and implemented over a long period of time.
If he did become isolated, paranoid & angry I can see from where that originates. He knew Labor hacks were backgrounding the conservative media to bring about his downfall. In the end he couldn’t trust anyone & it looks like a reasonable position to take.
[climate change a priority (but nothing serious because we think AUstralians dont want anything serious)]
On the contrary she seems to be making excuses to do as little as possible having canned an ETS and produced a grab bag of Howardesque distractions. And she is talking about forming a consensus on climate change, after the years of debate we have had, Copenhagen, Turnbull and Rudd agreeing an ETS and even Howard having an ETS for the election.
This was the most distrubing things she has come out with so far, a capitulation to the energy sector. Will she capitulate to mining sector as well? Do the promise the factions enough to ensure nothing too tough comes their way?
So far Gillard seems to be to the right of Turnbull and Howard on climate change.
[A QUEENSLAND company has been charged following the death of a teenaged worker during the federal government’s {botched} home insulation program.]
This is the most important part of the story. If these people are found to be guilty why is the government guilty of anything? This is a thought that will go through the mind of many people.
I am of the view that someone will have quiet word with Kevin Rudd that there won’t be a place for him in the cabinet after the election and that he may just have to change his mind and retire at the election.
I can’t see him hanging around on the back bench for 10 years like Billy McMahon or 25 years like Ted Heath.
There are still options like London, Washington or the UN. Maybe academia.
“he is not a traditional Laborite, and in fact very conservative.”
Please define a tradional Laborite. I am more interested in innovative progressive ideas rather than spurious labelling.
JB agree – winning the election will be the easy part for Gilliard. The long term challenge will be policy and reform- that will be the test – ideas matter.
[ The government axed its $2.45 billion insulation scheme in April after the death of four installers, 100 house fires, and accusations of fraud and unsafe work conditions. ]
Of the four deaths, two have now been found to be due to failure’s of OH&S law on the part of the companies involved. I suspect the third electrocution will be also. The kid that died of heatstroke am not sure how it will pan out.
How many companies have been found liable for installing bats over down light transformers anyone know?
Quick question (sorry if its already been answered somewhere)..
What was the actual 2PP result in WA in the last federal election?
Jon,
[Am curious where on the spectrum the die hard Rudd supporters are, he is not a traditional Laborite, and in fact very conservative. Is it loyalty for loyalty’s sake?]
Just my opinion, I think it was the fact that he “wasn’t” a creature of the factions that was, and still is, one of the features, that centre left supporters most admired in Rudd.
The greater, overwhelming number of those supporters are not fans of the factionalism and are always aware of the potential for it to undermine what they see as the traditional role and ideology of the Labor Party.
IMO, the move against Rudd has caused a major fracture in Labor support in Qld and the warlords and Gillard will have to get cracking to try and undo the damage they have done here.
Not much time to do it in though and so many other fronts to fight on now too. Labor didn’t need another one that fractured its base.