Julia Gillard: day two

Australian politics has entered uncharted waters after yesterday’s brutally efficient leadership coup, but the consensus view is that Julia Gillard is favourite to lead Labor to a victory which might have been beyond Kevin Rudd. One naysayer is Peter Brent of Mumble, a man who has been known to get things right from time to time. Brent’s assessment, published in The Australian yesterday, is that the odds now slightly favour the Coalition, whereas Labor under Rudd would most likely have increased its majority. I think he has it the wrong way around.

Certainly there is a view abroad – Mark Bahnisch of Larvatus Prodeo being one proponent – that changing leaders, particularly when in government, is inherently destabilising and destructive. The New South Wales state government’s game of musical chairs is usually offered as a cautionary tale. However, it is a mistake to compare the federal government with one whose problems are underlying, terminal and, most crucially, age-related. Through Morris Iemma, Nathan Rees and Kristina Keneally, NSW Labor’s primary vote has been super-glued to 30 per cent in the polls, for the simple reason that the leadership hasn’t been the problem.

It was a different story entirely with Kevin Rudd, who led a first-term government with a strong economic record that ought to be well ahead. The main problem lay with a leader whose credibility in the eyes of voters had been irreparably damaged by the celebrated series of policy backdowns followed by the government advertising fiasco. As is now well known, such problems were mirrored within the party. Stunning as events of recent days have been, there has been no mystery about their underlying cause: when Rudd’s poll lead evaporated, so did his authority in the party. All that remained to be answered was whether the party still felt he could struggle through to an election win, allowing the matter to be dealt with less bruisingly after the event.

Key to the decision that he couldn’t was internal polling which reportedly showed Labor headed for a net loss of 18 seats. Purported details of such polling were provided by a party insider to Andrew Bolt, and they tell a believeable story. Included are Labor seats on less than 5 per cent and Coalition seats on less than 1.5 per cent – about 40 all told. The broad picture is of Labor facing swings of 4 per cent in New South Wales and Queensland and as much as 8 per cent in South Australia, but no change in Victoria or Tasmania. In Western Australia, Hasluck would be lost, but no swing can be determined as Brand and Perth weren’t included in the poll. Also said to be a lost cause for Labor was Darwin-based Solomon.

Twenty-one seats in all were identified as Labor losses against three gains, which coming off 88 seats notionally held by Labor would leave them five seats short of a majority. This would involve an overall swing of about 3.5 per cent and a Labor two-party vote of about 49 per cent, slightly below the trend of published polling. Taken together, the evidence pointed to a worrying but by no means irretrievable situation for the government. What proved fatal to Rudd was a lack of confidence, based on recent performance, in his capacity to turn the ship around.

With regard to the likely electoral consequences, Peter van Onselen in The Australian pretty much bangs the nail on the head as far as I’m concerned, as does Niki Savva at The Drum. This from Lenore Taylor the Sydney Morning Herald also caught my eye:

Tony Abbott put a brave face on Labor’s last-ditch leadership change but privately the Coalition was desperately disappointed that it would not face an election against Kevin Rudd.

And it was utterly dismayed the mining industry had – as one source put it – ”succumbed to [Gillard’s] guile” by agreeing to her offer of a negotiating truce in the mining super profits tax war and to take the industry advertisements attacking the government off the air.

The Coalition has gone out on a limb in support of the mining industry and the prospect of a deal between the miners and the government has left it edgy.

Some developments from the upheaval:

• In what would be red-letter news on any other day, Lindsay Tanner made the shock announcement he would quit politics at the next election, making Greens candidate Adam Bandt a short-priced favourite to take his seat of Melbourne. VexNews reports “talk” that Tanner hopes to be succeeded in the seat by academic, commentator and occasional broadcaster Waleed Aly, who would seem just the thing to defuse the threat of the Greens, and Socialist Left warlord Andrew Giles, who wouldn’t.

• Shortly before the spill, VexNews reported that if Rudd went, so might two Queensland marginal seat MPs: Chris Trevor in Flynn and Jon Sullivan in Longman. Trevor said yesterday that Gillard would “always have my full support”, but Emma Chalmers of the Courier-Mail reports from Labor sources that he was contemplating quitting. Chalmers also quotes Sullivan expressing disappointment at the result, but going no further than that.

• According to The Australian’s Jack the Insider, “Liberal Party polling tells (Abbott) that he is starting this contest against Gillard from a long way behind. Kevin Rudd may have had his nose in front but the polling tells Abbott that Gillard would win the next election by the length of the straight.”

And while I’m here, here’s a piece I wrote for Crikey last week on the electoral state-of-play in South Australia. It might be showing its age in some respects.

South Australia was Labor’s forgotten triumph of the 2007 election, replicating on a smaller and less spectacular scale the decisive tectonic shift in Queensland.

The statewide two-party swing to Labor of 6.8% was only slightly below Queensland’s 7.5%, which was borne out in the proportion of seat gains: three out of 11 in South Australia, nine out of 29 in Queensland.

Labor’s resurgence put an end to a slump which dated back to 1987, the last time they had won a majority of the South Australian two-party vote, and 1990, when they last won a majority of seats.

Before that the state had been a source of strength for Labor in the post-war era, notwithstanding that a dubious electoral boundaries regime kept them out of office for much of that time at state level.

This was partly because the state party branch was spared the worst of the 1954-55 split, but also because of the large blue-collar workforce required to service an economy based largely on manufacturing and industry.

The difficulties experienced by these sectors meant the state was hit hard by the economic upheavals of the 1980s, which together with the damage done to Labor by the 1991 State Bank collapse led to a fundamental electoral shift in the Liberals’ favour.

At federal level this was manifested in a series of grim federal election results that reduced Labor to two seats out of 12 in 1996, to which only one seat was added in later terms of the Howard Government.

With one seat having been abolished in 2004, Labor’s doubling of their representation at the 2007 election gave them a bare majority of six seats out of 11, and left the Liberals without a safe seat in Adelaide.

The two Liberal hold-outs in the city were Christopher Pyne’s seat of Sturt and Andrew Southcott’s seat of Boothby, which cover the traditional party strongholds of the east and inner south.

In a tale that will become increasingly familiar as this series proceeds, speculation about the coming election was long focused on the Liberals’ chances of retaining these existing seats, but such talk faded as the new year began and disappeared with Labor’s poll collapse over the past two months.

Labor’s main strength in South Australia lies in the coastal plain north of the city centre, which makes a safe Labor seat of Port Adelaide and marginals of four others which are leavened with more conservative areas beyond.

The electorate of Adelaide covers inner suburbs both north and south of the city, which are respectively strong and weak for Labor, and the growing inner-city apartment population in between, which has proved highly volatile in its electoral habits of late.

In a rare sighting of the “doctors’ wives” effect, Labor’s Kate Ellis bucked the trend of the 2004 election to win Adelaide from Liberal incumbent Trish Worth, and she emerged from the 2007 election with what seemed like a secure 8.5% margin.

However, the Liberals are talking of internal polling showing them “closing the gap”, after staggering swings were recorded in the electorate at the March state election (at which Education Minister Jane Lomax-Smith lost the state seat of Adelaide with a swing of 14.4%).

To the west of Adelaide is coastal Hindmarsh, which combines Labor-voting inner city areas with prosperous and conservative Glenelg in the south. Labor’s Steve Georganas won by the narrowest of margins when popular Liberal member Chris Gallus retired in 2004, before picking up a relatively modest swing in 2007.

North-east of the city centre is Makin, home to newer suburbs in the hills along with the eastern part of Salisbury on the plain. Makin is the only seat in the state which has form as a bellwether, being held by Labor from its creation in 1984 until 1996, Liberal through the Howard years and Labor’s Tony Zappia since 2007.

Further north is Wakefield, which offers even starker contrasts: deep red Elizabeth in the south, rapidly growing Gawler just past the city’s northern limits (where change is favouring Labor, if the state election is anything to go by) and conservative rural and wine-growing areas beyond.

Wakefield was a safe Liberal country seat until it absorbed Elizabeth at the redistribution before the 2004 election. Liberal candidate David Fawcett unexpectedly retained it for the Liberals on that occasion, but his narrow margin was eliminated by Labor’s Nick Champion in 2007 (Fawcett now stands poised to enter the Senate).

The only seat in Adelaide which conforms neatly with the mortgage belt marginal seat stereotype is Kingston, covering the city’s outer southern coastal suburbs. Labor’s Amanda Rishworth recovered this seat for Labor in 2007 after it was lost in 2004, interest rates having had a lot to do with it on each occasion.

The diversity that characterises the other marginals is significant, as it leaves their members as susceptible to rebellions in party heartlands as to the normally more decisive ebb and flow of the mortgage-payer vote.

This is where the mining tax could cause problems for Labor, as many blue-collar workers perceive a connection between the mining boom and the industrial and manufacturing sectors which employ them.

While South Australia is rarely given a guernsey as a “mining state”, BHP Billiton’s massive Olympic Dam project single-handedly allows the industry to punch above its weight, as it is associated in the public mind with the state shaking off its “rust belt” reputation from the 1990s.

Uncomfortably for Labor, BHP Billiton says the tax will jeopardise a $20 billion expansion to the project which is currently under consideration, a process that will certainly not be completed before the election.
Premier Mike Rann captured attention last week when he claimed any decision to stall the project would cost Labor four or even five seats.

For all that, the Liberals have big hurdles to clear if South Australia is to produce any of the seats it needs to overhaul Labor’s majority.

The problem is a lack of low-hanging fruit — even the most marginal of Labor’s six seats, Kingston, sits on an imposing margin of 4.4%.

Furthermore, the March state election suggests Labor has a trump card in the form of a ruthlessly efficient marginal seat campaign machine, which helped Mike Rann hang on to office with just 37.5% of the primary and 48.4% of the two-party vote.

The only seats in the state which swung to Labor were the two most marginal, Light and Mawson (respectively in Wakefield and Kingston federally), and the critical eastern suburbs seats of Hartley and Newland likewise held firm against a torrid tide. Elsewhere, Labor suffered double-digit swings nearly everywhere they could afford to.

Federal Labor will be hoping to achieve similar successes in working-class areas with a campaign to focus minds on industrial relations, thereby shoring up valuable support in Makin and Wakefield in particular.
Beyond Adelaide, the state’s three non-metropolitan seats are of limited electoral interest, notwithstanding the vague threat the Democrats and now the Greens have posed in Mayo, where Jamie Briggs struggled over the line in the September 2008 by-election that followed Alexander Downer’s resignation.

That leaves Barker in the state’s east, which covers rural territory which has never been of interest to Labor, and the outback electorate of Grey, which has transformed over the past two decades from safe Labor to safe Liberal — testament to the decline of the “iron triangle” cities of Whyalla, Port August and Port Pirie, and reflecting the experience of Kalgoorlie west of the border.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

966 comments on “Julia Gillard: day two”

Comments Page 14 of 20
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  1. [I think it’s been established that polls weren’t the key driver for Rudd’s removal. He couldn’t communicate within the party without four letter words – and could no longer communicate with the electorate. I never thougt I’d agree with Frank – but toughen up and move on to the real choice : Abbot vs Gillard]

    have any of your thought that kev was not well after Copenhagen it was to much
    and i think people placed to much on his shoulders.

    So its best this way he can regain his strength and do well in a ministry

    THIS IS WHAT YOU HAVE TOSAY TO PEOPLE DONT FORGET TO ENCOUGE OUR JULIA EFFORTS ON YOUR FACE BOOK
    my friend found an nasty remark last night its a nick name for red heads and she
    had a go at the person immediately through her face book which would of covered a lot of people so dont be slack to to it i wish i could face book but my name is so unusual sir name that is
    i bet your all just sitting here going o well shes at it again nagging old mother she is

    i think dee has gone to email her friends how many can you email in one hour

  4. [643
    Jon

    Rudd’s execution

    Arrrrhhhg, I keep hearing this, execution, assassination, beheading etc. What’s with all these morbid descriptions? He was none of these things as they are invariably fatal, and as far as I can tell the guy is still walking around, just that he has diminished responsibilities.]

    I quite agree. Everything was peaceful in Canberra yesterday. No blood was let. The caucus assembled. People spoke. There was a spill motion and nominations were called for Leader and Deputy. It was a good day for democracy.

  5. [i think dee has gone to email her friends how many can you email in one hour]

    I can email my 3,500 members on ny website (health related) in about 3 minutes.

  6. 646 Agree

    I think there’s a lot of relief in the public service too. Departments will be able to get on with things with their minister without the PMO whizzkids breathing down their necks

  7. AAP:

    [Foreign Minister Stephen Smith has paved the way for Kevin Rudd to have his job – if he wants it.

    Prime Minister Julia Gillard is expected to announce her new frontbench within days, and there is speculation Mr Rudd might take over his specialty area of foreign affairs.

    Mr Smith said that was up to Ms Gillard and he would accommodate her wishes.]

  8. Kevin is a very christian man and i am sure this will get him through.

    Julia is a very worldly person in her own way and i am sure a very good person.
    we should not dwell on kevins personal side and his deep religions beliefs we all have our way with dealing with things. WE just have to be glad he has that to fall back on.

    But as for abbott his religious beleives are extreme and not something that should be bought in to the political arena for eg i read he said religious teaching should be compulsory in schools, come on we are a mixed society with our own thoughts and beleives its up to us to teach our children what we want not the government.

  10. The Australian:

    [As the first day of the Gillard era unfolded, an early poll showed voters were concerned about her legitimacy as Prime Minister after wresting the job from Mr Rudd.

    A survey of 2500 people by market research company CoreData conducted at 11am yesterday revealed that 21 per cent of respondents would not vote for Labor this week “because they did not feel that they had elected Julia Gillard”.

    However, Ms Gillard was considered the most authentic among the politicians measured – Mr Rudd, Tony Abbott, Joe Hockey and Peter Garrett, who was considered the least authentic.

    The survey showed that if a federal election were to be held next week, only 29.5% of Australians would vote for Labor, while 42% would vote Liberal.]

  11. [Prime Minister Julia Gillard is expected to announce her new frontbench within days, and there is speculation Mr Rudd might take over his specialty area of foreign affairs.]
    Could be there is more of that internal polling going on and people ain’t happy joyce, re the treatment of kev! 😉

  12. [Mr Smith said that was up to Ms Gillard and he would accommodate her wishes.]

    This was from the Sky Bimbo interview this morning. Smith said wtte that he was old fashioned and believed it was up to the leader to grant portfolios. Except this is not old fashioned in Labor terms it is very modern. 🙂

  15. Tim Lambert on past work by CoreData on the death penalty:

    [However, if you look at the full poll results, you will discover something much more interesting: 66% of Australians are male! How come? Well the Bulletin reports that the poll was conducted by CoreData. If you check out their page, you find that they pay people to do surveys over the Internet. For a survey to be representative of the views of Australians, you must have a proper random sample, where each person is equally likely to be surveyed. The CoreData sample was biased in two different ways: first it only included people with Internet access, and second, even amongst Internet users, it just sample people interested enough in doing surveys to sign up with CoreData. As a result, the survey was worthless — the results do not reflect what Australians think. Nor are 66% of Australians male.]

  18. [What about Craig Emerson for finance?]

    Could a leader promote a former lover? Maybe. He would be a great choich for an economic portfolio, but he could cop crud from the rabble.

  20. If Stephen Smith is no longer to be Foreign Minister, there are a number of jobs he could take on. He has past experience in Education, Health, Resources and Energy. And he would do a great job in Finance. He is prudent, hard-working, measured and has great political instincts.

  23. [However, if you look at the full poll results, you will discover something much more interesting: 66% of Australians are male! How come? Well the Bulletin reports that the poll was conducted by CoreData. If you check out their page, you find that they pay people to do surveys over the Internet. For a survey to be representative of the views of Australians, you must have a proper random sample, where each person is equally likely to be surveyed. The CoreData sample was biased in two different ways: first it only included people with Internet access, and second, even amongst Internet users, it just sample people interested enough in doing surveys to sign up with CoreData. As a result, the survey was worthless — the results do not reflect what Australians think. Nor are 66% of Australians male.]
    A very good example of the inherent (or deliberate) lack of rigour used by sections of the MSM in reporting on the issues.

  24. Glen@671

    Frank you are acting like a Labor Truthy full of insults to people who even slightly disagree with you.

    Spare me the Crocodile tears Glen, you’re no saint yourself.

  25. I’ve dealt with Coredata before – they do a fair bit of polling work for the financial services industry.

    Because of the quick turnaround period, it would have been from their online panel, probably not perfectly balanced in the demographics and probably not a great fit for instapolitics.

    Phone polls are coming soon, pay attention to them

  26. [I think there’s a lot of relief in the public service too. Departments will be able to get on with things with their minister without the PMO whizzkids breathing down their necks]

    A similar comment made by my PS kid.

  27. I have no recollection of this at all, but here is an interactive map allowing you to peruse CoreData results for every electorate in the land from before the 2007 election. The results are absolutely hilarious.

  29. Joffaboy, Caesar’s “Gallic Wars” (in English) http://classics.mit.edu/Caesar/gallic.html Not as lucid & lively as the Great JC’s himself!

    Our Yr10-12 text books were pretty much Tom Arnold’s precis of Livy for livery young Rugby lads, with Hannibal (esp the Cunctator / Fab Strategy years; though I loved the lot) But what still I still find spine-tinglingly, excitingly brilliant is Cicero’s impeachment of Verres, esp the superlative (literally, one after the other) catalogue of his crimes, starting:

    Hoc praetore, Siculi neque suas leges, neque nostra senatus-consulta, neque communia jura tenuerunt. Tantum quisque habet in Sicilia, quantum hominis avarissimi et libidinosissimi aut imprudentiam subterfugit, aut satietati superfuit.

    I always “hear” it Mussolini’s candences, with his gestures and facial expressions (though Cicero was probably more “over the top”

    (It’s on http://www.archive.org/stream/publiccicero00cicerich/publiccicero00cicerich_djvu.txt You have to scroll down the page, past 28 Impeachment of Verres. to 20’s 2nd last line.)

    Nothing much changes about politics & politicians … except their ability to speak like that!

    Eat y’r heart out MalT & Geoff Robinson!

  31. The CoreData poll was being reported on the advertiser’s “Adelaide now” website.

    Someone at News didn’t do their homework.

  33. ruawake
    [Could a leader promote a former lover? Maybe. He would be a great choich for an economic portfolio, but he could cop crud from the rabble.]

    I think it would be a waste not to use his grasp of economics.

  35. I like that CoreData interactive map and the banner up the top right that says ‘help us remove potential bias from our poll’. I think they need all the help they can get 😛

  37. [The CoreData poll was being reported on the advertiser’s “Adelaide now” website. ]
    I heard it reported on Cruise 1323 between Crocodile Rock by Elton John and Summer Breeze by Seals and Crofts.

  39. I think the CoreData stuff was powered by The Australian, those polls where you put in you postcode and electorate.

    I loved the Fairfax results, I could change them with 3 votes. 😉

  40. Its been a long time since I’ve read the comment threads here on Poll Bludger. I’ve stayed away for obvious reasons (excess Labor hacks and all other opinions driven away by relentless hackery and mad conspiracy theories) but I couldn’t resist taking a peek in the wake of Kevin Rudd having his throat slit and being left in the gutter by his comrades. And it hasn’t disappointed!

    The Labor partisans have had their tiny little worlds rocked and are each in their own way attempting to deal with it, and hilarity has ensued. And the funniest thing about the whole situation is that Shanahan and the OO were right all along!

    If any hacks require support or assistance, please call lifeline on 13 11 14.

    Or just do what Frank Clabrese has done and overcome all emotion and distress at the situation by having blind faith in the Australian Labor Party. It may be intellectually questionable (and hilarious to onlookers) but surveys do consistently say that the happiest people are those with religion in their lives.

  41. [I think it would be a waste not to use his grasp of economics.]
    Bowen or Emerson should get finance. But most likely Emerson will get shafted for saying he was still supporting Rudd. Gillard will have to reward the AWU and NSW Right faction members, so that probably means Shorten will get I.R. and Bowen will get finance ahead of Emerson. Mark Arbib may get another promotion too.

  42. Publius Clodius@690

    Its been a long time since I’ve read the comment threads here on Poll Bludger. I’ve stayed away for obvious reasons (excess Labor hacks and all other opinions driven away by relentless hackery and mad conspiracy theories) but I couldn’t resist taking a peek in the wake of Kevin Rudd having his throat slit and being left in the gutter by his comrades. And it hasn’t disappointed!

    The Labor partisans have had their tiny little worlds rocked and are each in their own way attempting to deal with it, and hilarity has ensued. And the funniest thing about the whole situation is that Shanahan and the OO were right all along!

    If any hacks require support or assistance, please call lifeline on 13 11 14.

    Or just do what Frank Clabrese has done and overcome all emotion and distress at the situation by having blind faith in the Australian Labor Party. It may be intellectually questionable (and hilarious to onlookers) but surveys do consistently say that the happiest people are those with religion in their lives.

    Written and Authorised by Brian Loughnane, Liberal Party of Australia, Cnr Blackall & Macquarie Streets, Barton ACT 2600 🙂

  43. Oh perish the thought of Arbib.
    He is the only ALP hack who can do a duel interview with the worst performing ministers of the Libs & make them look believable.
    Quite a feat.

  44. [Bowen or Emerson should get finance. But most likely Emerson will get shafted for saying he was still supporting Rudd. Gillard will have to reward the AWU and NSW Right faction members, so that probably means Shorten will get I.R. and Bowen will get finance ahead of Emerson. Mark Arbib may get another promotion too.]

    Shows, my tips are:
    Smith to Education, Combet IR (with Shorten taking on Combet’s current posotion) and Rudd in FA (if he chooses to take it on).

  45. Tanner may well stay in Finance ’till the election. He has said he is willing to do it. That may mean a minor reshuffle to cover Jool’s 3 portfolios.

  47. heads up, for those who are interested in the NBN/Telstra, both Both CEO’s Mr. Thodey (Telstra) and Mr. Quigley (NBN) will be on Inside Business.

    Hopefully some new information.

  48. 690

    the hilarity is not lost on me – we even had an Iraqi Info Minister on the night. Had to be there – poll bludger is brilliant

  49. Frank:

    Yes butthe average Kath & Kim Bogan think he’s a typical Aussie Bloke and not some technorat Nerd like Rudd is.

    I’m afraid it ain’t policies alone which win elections, it’s the sales pitch and the salesperson.

    I know a fair number of these types – I’ll bet we all do – and that’s not what I’ve been hearing from them. Correct on the impression Rudd creates for himself, but no-one I know – not even Liberal voters – thinks Abbott’s a typical Aussie bloke. I bring his name up and they say, “Yeah, he’s hopeless”. It’s just that it’s not something they particularly care to think about (or have had to think about) so far – they’ve been too Rudd-focussed.

    Basically, Abbott’s image remains neutral while there’s something else out there to focus the anger on. But underlying that is a (passive) negative view of him.

    Put a low-profile incompetent up against a higher-profile irritant, and the incompetent looks like a fair enough choice. Remove the irritant, and the incompetent suddenly gets more scrutiny.

    My beef has been with the assumption that Rudd is an irritant – I’ve never seen him that way. But amongst the people I know, I’m very much in the minority there.

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