UPDATE (FRIDAY): At a safe distance, here is my Crikey piece on the by-election which was originally subscriber only.
By-elections have been a feature of Australian political life since the first democratically elected colonial parliaments were established in the mid-nineteenth century.
Compiling a comprehensive set of historic by-election results at state as well as federal level would involve painstaking research through the archives of various electoral authorities and newspapers-of-record.
It is possible that, buried in some such dark and dusty place, there might be found details of a by-election defeat as bad for a major political party as the one suffered by New South Wales Labor in Penrith on Saturday.
However, the lack of any such precedent in recent memory, together with the trend towards greater electoral volatility over time, suggests it isn’t very likely.
We do know that Labor has suffered the worst by-election swing recorded in the long history of New South Wales, thanks to exhaustive historical results compiled for the New South Wales Parliamentary Library by Antony Green.
The closest historical parallels that spring to mind are indeed from the Premier State: Bass Hill in 1986, when Neville Wran’s previously safe seat fell to the Liberals upon his retirement, and — distressingly close at hand as far as the government is concerned — Ryde and Cabramatta just after Morris Iemma’s departure in September 2008.
With respective two-party swings of 22.2%, 22.9% and 22.0%, Penrith looks to have surpassed all three, recording an election night swing of 25.5%.
One result that has its measure is the 1991 by-election for Geraldton in Western Australia, held as Carmen Lawrence’s Labor government groaned under the weight of revelations from the WA Inc Royal Commission.
On that occasion Labor’s primary vote fell from 47.6% to 16.6%, while the combined Liberal and Nationals vote went from 43.5% to 66.5%. Labor finished third behind the Nationals and thus did not even make the final two-party cut, making it impossible to determine a two-party swing.
It might also be worth mentioning Labor’s forfeit last year in the Tasmanian upper house seat of Pembroke, which the party was too scared to contest after the resignation of its sitting member Allison Ritchie.
(It should be stressed that this is limited to two-party contests, and thus excludes the fairly common occurrence of major party support being gouged by the emergence of popular independents. And while I’m making asides, it’s interesting to note that the by-election hall of shame is dominated by Labor).
In Penrith, Labor finished the night on 24.4% of the primary vote, losing almost exactly half of their 48.7% from 2007.
Three-quarters of the dividend was collected by the Liberals, up from 32.6% to 50.9%, while the Greens vote more than doubled from 5.5% to a still quite modest (for a by-election) 12.8%.
While the result has never been in doubt since former member Karyn Paluzzano announced her resignation in May, Labor might initially have hoped for something a little less bruising.
At the time of the 2008 by-elections the then Premier, Nathan Rees, had a Newspoll approval rating of 39%, which — mediocre as it was — proved to be a honeymoon peak. It clearly says something very alarming about the state of the Labor brand that Kristina Keneally has been able to do even worse with an approval rating of 47%.
Several factors suggest themselves as explanations for Labor’s ability to plumb new depths, of which the most newsworthy is the decline in Labor’s federal fortunes since Ryde and Cabramatta. Evidence of Rudd Government policy failures feeding into a general questioning of Labor’s competence in the electorate might be anecdotal, but it’s substantial in volume.
Of course, those rushing to judgement on the Prime Minister need to recall that the by-election follows a horror stretch for the State Government, even by its own abysmal standards.
There is also reason to think Penrith was especially unfavourable terrain for Labor to face a by-election.
As the experience of the corresponding federal electoral of Lindsay has shown, this is an area of fickle political loyalties which never fails to jump on the bandwagon when a swing is on.
The electorate’s outer suburban location also places a premium on transport issues, with local voters having suffered the worst of freeway gridlocks and a creaking public transport system.
A somewhat more nuanced picture of the result can be gained by comparing the two distinct parts of the electorate: Penrith and its surrounds, which account for about 80% of the voters, and the very different electoral terrain of the Blue Mountains, which the electorate touches upon at Blaxland, Glenbrook and Lapstone.
Labor was hit hardest in the former, down by about 26% compared with 21% in the Blue Mountains, and the dividend there more heavily favoured the Liberals.
There have been suggestions the Greens could have hoped for more from a Labor collapse on this scale, but the distinction between the two areas suggests their failure to do so says as much about Penrith as the state of the parties at large.
Penrith boasts slightly above average incomes but below average educational attainment, making it weak territory for the Greens. By contrast, the Blue Mountains has almost double Penrith’s proportion of professionals, and is thus a lot more representative of the kinds of seats where the party will be hoping to defeat Labor.
It is thus highly significant that the Greens outpolled Labor in every one of the four Blue Mountains booths, polling a collective primary vote of over 23% compared with about 11% in and around Penrith.
Accordingly, the result holds little comfort for Labor in the Greens targets of Balmain and Marrickille, and suggests they will struggle to stay ahead of the Greens in the neighbouring seat of Blue Mountains — academic though that may be, given the near certainty of it falling to the Liberals.
And while federal implications of state by-elections should generally be treated with caution, the scale of the overall result gives Labor ample reason to be nervous not only Lindsay, but also the other nearby marginals of Macquarie and Macarthur.
UPDATE (MONDAY): I have a subscriber-only article on the by-election in Crikey today.
My earlier preference projections proved too optimistic for Labor: with all the two-party booth counts conducted, the swing at the close of play is 25.5 per cent. This is a result without any precedent I’m aware of, at least as far as two-party contests are concerned. The swings in Ryde (22.9 per cent) and Cabramatta (22.0 per cent) in September 2008 were presumed at the time to show Labor as low as they could go, but tonight’s result is measurably worse.
The result comes despite an improvement in Labor’s leadership position since September 2008 – at state level, at least. According to Newspoll, Nathan Rees achieved the earlier swings on a honeymoon approval rating of 39 per cent, while Kristina Keneally has suffered Penrith on 47 per cent. However, Kevin Rudd’s approval rating in that time has dropped from 54 per cent to 36 per cent. Talk of federal connections to state election results can usually be taken with a grain of salt, but in this case it’s hard to believe Labor’s federal collapse has played no role in giving state Labor new depths to plumb. It certainly doesn’t bode well for them in Lindsay.
| Swing | 2PP/Swing | |||
| Thain (ALP) | 8200 | 24.4% | -24.4% | 33.7% |
| Wright (GRN) | 4221 | 12.6% | 7.3% | -25.5% |
| Saunders | 724 | 2.2% | ||
| Ayres (LIB) | 17067 | 50.9% | 18.3% | 66.3% |
| Leyonhjelm (ORP) | 638 | 1.9% | 25.5% | |
| Sanz (DEM) | 297 | 0.9% | 0.0% | |
| Green (CDP) | 1516 | 4.5% | -1.8% | |
| Selby (IND) | 884 | 2.6% | ||
| ALP | LIB | ALP 2PP | Swing | |
| Blaxland | 20.4% | 45.7% | 37.3% | -22.0% |
| Blaxland East | 14.0% | 51.8% | 29.1% | -21.9% |
| Braddock | 29.4% | 45.9% | 41.2% | -25.3% |
| Cranebrook | 24.2% | 52.2% | 34.3% | -28.4% |
| Emu Heights | 23.0% | 52.2% | 33.4% | -23.9% |
| Emu Plains | 23.5% | 55.6% | 32.5% | -20.8% |
| Glenbrook | 15.9% | 48.4% | 33.1% | -19.1% |
| Jamisontown | 22.8% | 52.7% | 33.2% | -27.5% |
| Kingswood | 27.5% | 43.7% | 41.0% | -26.1% |
| Kingswood Park | 30.8% | 46.7% | 41.6% | -25.3% |
| Kingswood South | 29.2% | 45.6% | 40.7% | -24.2% |
| Lapstone | 16.0% | 50.9% | 32.4% | -17.2% |
| Leonay | 17.0% | 65.2% | 24.3% | -20.4% |
| Nepean High | 22.3% | 55.5% | 30.2% | -25.4% |
| Penrith | 27.9% | 46.2% | 40.0% | -24.4% |
| Penrith North | 28.2% | 51.7% | 37.9% | -25.1% |
| Penrith South | 27.8% | 49.9% | 37.8% | -21.3% |
| Stuart Street | 25.8% | 51.2% | 35.5% | -19.1% |
| York | 25.7% | 53.0% | 34.8% | -25.5% |
8.44pm. Penrith High is the final booth to report primary votes.
8.31pm. Kingswood Public School pushes swing up from 23.4 per cent to 23.6 per cent.
8.18pm. I suppose federal Labor can argue this result is no different from the Ryde by-election of September 2008, at which time it held an enormous lead in the polls – though I’m not sure how many will listen (it would be useful for them if late counting pulled the swing below 22.9 per cent). The riposte would be that Labor had a popular state leader this time and should have done better.
8.15pm. Labor haven’t come within cooee of winning a booth. The Greens have more than doubled their vote, but to still modest levels – Penrith not exactly being the latte belt. There’s a six point gap between the pro-Liberal and anti-Labor swings, which is reasonably good work for the Liberals.
8.12pm Jamistown Uniting Church Hall added. Two to go.
8.04pm. Cranebrook booth added – one of Labor’s worst results, but no real difference made.
8.02pm. So at this stage Labor seems to have suffered a slightly worse result than Ryde (22.9 per cent) and Cabramatta (22 per cent), and a good deal worse than Lakemba (13.5 per cent).
7.52pm. Another two booths added, five more go, and the swing continuing to settle at 23 per cent. I’m using real world 2PP figures now.
7.43pm. Jamistown Public and Penrith South results added. NSWEC link working now, BTW.
7.40pm. Three more booths including very large Jamison High School booth see the swing settle at about 23 per cent. Antony Green has 2PP counts and I don’t.
7.35pm. Stoopid NSW Electoral Commission PDF now points to wrong link.
7.33pm. Lapstone, Leonay and Emu Heights very slightly reduce the size of the swing.
7.31pm. St Dominic’s College booth added.
7.28pm. Kingswood Park booth keeps the picture consistent.
7.24pm. Blaxland High and Penrith PCYC booths very slightly improve the picture for Labor, the two-party swing now looking at 25 per cent. The Greens outpolled Labor at Blaxland High.
7.08pm. Preference distributions are guesses at this stage.
7.06pm. Swing of about 30 per cent against Labor at small Nepean Hospital – 267 votes all up. Not a good start for them, you would have to say.
6.15pm. Welcome to live coverage of tonight’s bloodbath in Penrith. I guess we should get first figures in about 20 minutes. In the meantime, enjoy this illuminating booth results map for the 2007 election.
Twittering
Last Tweet from Kristina Keneally and surprisingly nothing since on her favourite media:
A big thank you to the John Thain volunteers. They’re doing a great job. Good to see the support at the booths I’ve visited.
about 6 hours ago via TweetDeck
One recent one from Barry O’Farrell-
@daGusface sorry you’ve had such a crap night – most people have enjoyed it!
about 1 hour ago via web
pedant
the problem is most of the “patronage networks whose members don’t appear to believe in anything other than looking after themselves (and who are manifestly stupid and administratively incompetent to boot), ”
would be definition of federal Labor
For example the looking aftrer yourself part
Ferguson: should have been more consultation
Crean: I knew nothing, my staff will know more in the future
Gillard: It was Rudd and Swann
It is almost like rats leaving a sinking ship
dovif @ 151
You are entitled to your opinion like everyone, but I’ve seen my share of bad governments, both here and in other countries, and I personally don’t think there is any comparison between what’s been happening in NSW and what’s been happening federally. Many of the difficulties faced by the federal government flow from having to deal with a Senate in which the opposition can pretty much block anything it doesn’t like, whereas most of the problems NSW Labor is facing flow from pure self-indulgent lack of self-discipline.
Maybe the raw primary vote numbers are just as bad as the 2PP swing
– ALP primary vote *halved*!!
– Liberals got over 50% on primaries alone – no need for preferences
what a result. Mr Sandman now
The media will be insufferable tomorrow, so if you aren’t a Liberal like Truthy, I’d avoid INSIDERS.
And, you can’t blame Kristina Keneally – the damage was done long ago, particularly by the power brokers Tripodi/Obeid and Sussex St.
If it hadn’t been for Denham’s disasterous campaign in 2007, the Liberals would be going for their 2nd term in March 2011.
[If the next NSW election sees a 20% state wide swing then these seats might fall. some are hard to see falling for they would require a major swift in life long voting habits]
Wouldn’t it have been easier to list the seats Labor would keep?
I suspect that as the state election approaches that is what we will do.
Or we should list the ministers in danger of losing their seats, like Verity Firth, Phil Costa, Carmel Tebutt etc.
Well that’s unsurprising.
Before anyone draws a federal parallel, it’s a by-election (which by nature go against the government anyway) in a state with a 15 year old government (It came before Howard) that is tired and stale, tainted by scandal and ineptitude, managing a failing economy. This was an anti-Keneally government vote.
Although don’t be misled by my comment on by-elections traditionally favouring oppositions. Under normal circumstances, Labor should have retained this.
With numbers like these, after the election, the ALP in the NSW lower house will find it difficult to have enough members to form a cricket line up.
So the question is: how do the ALP recover from this position? Not to win (I think we can all agree that is off the cards) but to minimalise the seats lost, so they can maybe have a shot at taking government back in 2015?
#160
[ So the question is: how do the ALP recover from this position? Not to win (I think we can all agree that is off the cards) but to minimalise the seats lost, so they can maybe have a shot at taking government back in 2015?
]
A very good question.
Go back to Dec 2009/January 2010, and many were saying that Kristina Keneally was the solution:- she would save the furniture and might even win the 2011 election. The Penrith by-election indicates they were wRONg.
My suggestion:-
Rid the parliamentary NSW Labor Party of the people that have coalesced around and adopted the attitudes/philosophy/ethics of the right wing factional warlords and replace them with independent minded people whose prime motivation for entering parliament is to serve the people.
However, I don’t expect my suggestion to be acted upon and would not be surprised if the reverse occurs.
Kristina Keneally says her favourite social media is Twitter.
She seems to have demonstrated via Twitter where her priorities lie.
She made just 2 Tweets on the Penrith by-election:-
1. At about 5pm-
A big thank you to the John Thain volunteers. They’re doing a great job. Good to see the support at the booths I’ve visited.
about 12 hours ago via TweetDeck
2. At about 11pm-
At Darling Harbour. Just did media conference on today’s by-election, acknowledging the decision of the people of Penrith.
about 6 hours ago via Twitter for iPhone
However, in the 3 hours following her 11pm one, she made 5 Tweets commentating on the soccer.
On reflection, Kristina Keneally probably chose the wrong career. Politics is clearly not her forte.
With a 24% 2PP margin in Heffron, a swing against her of Penrithian magnitude (25.5%) at the 2011 general election, will see her out job hunting.
Might I humbly suggest she chase a career as a TV sports commentator. She has the “look” suited for TV, and with her intense interest in all things sport, she should make a success in such a career.
The Labor Party “dirty tricks department”, it seems, couldn’t keep away from the Penrith by-election. Fresh from their success in the South Australian general election earlier in the year (when they imitated Family First and handed out deceptibe HTV cards) they turned their attention to the Greens.
Ms Keneally was accosted by Greens campaigners during her visit and shown leaflets telling Greens voters to give their preferences to Mr Thain. The Greens alleged the slips were handed out by ALP members who were not wearing official T-shirts – a grab for preference votes as part of a ”dirty tricks” campaign. Some federal Labor MPs were brought in to help with last-minute campaigning. Others stayed a mile away.
Labor laid to waste as Liberals win the west
It would be fanciful for anyone to suggest that the Penrith by-election was not a true test of the “new improved” Brand Keneally. Labor’s candidate material bore little mention of Labor and Alex Mitchell reports:-
Labor spent thousands of dollars on colour posters of Keneally that were displayed around the constituency yet only a handful bore the image of the hapless Labor candidate, John Whatshisface.
Chill wind of discontent blows all the way to Canberra
Of course, this is going to be framed as a defeat for Rudd, despite this having as much to do with Rudd’s government as it does to me…
One has to wonder how bad things really are for Brand Keneally when just 30 people turn up for the Labor candidates post polling party, as reported in the Sunday Telegraph.
Labor facing a total wipeout
#166
[ Of course, this is going to be framed as a defeat for Rudd, despite this having as much to do with Rudd’s government as it does to me…
]
I am more interested in how Kristina Keneally and NSW Labor are going to spin this defeat by a historic margin. It will need to be imaginative. There are no lines I can think of. IF the swing had been less than the 2008 Ryde by-election it could have been spun as proof that Brand Keneally was making headway and winning back support. But alas……
This certainly has shades of SA, Peter, but in terms of what happened at the 1993 election.
The ALP was reduced to only 11 of the 47 seats in the parliament, yet they came very close to winning the next election in 1997, partly due to unpopular Liberal Government cuts and privatisations, but also due to a newed vigour in the Labor Party and strong, hard-working shadow ministers who got a number of runs on the board.
It can be done and I wouldn’t yet write off KK as a future Premier of NSW. Despite his current woes, Mike Rann is still a master tactician and if I were her, I would be giving him a call.
For those who thinks this has no federal implicarion, despite that most people (even in here) confuses Federal and state issues
That is not what the Federal ALP MP thinks
One federal MP, who predicted a ”horrific” result, said: ”We [federal Labor] are not helped by the problems at the state level.” Another ventured: ”The brand name Labor stinks … and Kevin [Rudd] is an issue.” Yet another described Penrith as an ”absolute disaster” for federal MPs whose electorates overlapped the state seat.
And not what the Green’s think…. As for the vote rigging BER …. lets see …. where do most people vote …. at school in the school hall …. if the ALP spend $12 billion of taxpayers money on building school halls, then people go and vote …. they will see a big poster of Rudd and Gillard ,,, they will thank and vote for the ALP …. Now it is just a reminder of how the Federal and state ALP had wasted so much money, without doing any work of shovel ready project like building houses for Aborigines in the NT
Ms Wright said: “Two people just walked out and said: ‘What a waste of money.’ People are angry with Labor and they are cynical about the election process. This is a lesson for state and federal governments to learn.”http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/labor-laid-to-waste-as-liberals-win-the-west-20100619-yo5c.html
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/labor-laid-to-waste-as-liberals-win-the-west-20100619-yo5c.html
Laocoon, the prove that Green’s preference behaved differently this election
The only material swing for the night is
ALP -24.4
Green +7.7
Libertal +18.3
Yet on 2PP terms it was ALP -25.5 Liberals +25.5, ie the Green vote which at the last election flowed at a rate of 30% back to the ALP did not happen at all, if it did happen, the 2PP swing would be 21%, instead the 2PP swing (25.5% swoing) was greater than the primary vote swing … this means that apart from the primary vote lost, there was further loss of preference from the last election
There can only be 2 sourse of this swing (ie over 1000 vote) they are the CDP (1516) and Greens (4221) and since the CDP went backward and is much smaller, the swing is unlikely to have occured from them …. leaving the conclusion that the Green vote flowed significanyly stronger to the Liberals than the ALP compared with the last election
As for the total distribution count that you referred to, the Liberals got preference vote of 1,500 votes but ALP only got 1,200 vote …. which would not support the last election preference from the green of 2:1
The ALP also got the donkey vote of 1%
Well the result is bad, it is not a shock, and I don’t blame Kenneally. I can only hope that when the current government is finally put down at the next election, that the troika of power is booted out in NSW Labor, not just another change of leader. Until the corrupt structure goes, Labor is consigned to long term opposition in NSW. People shouldn’t asume the opposition will fail in office. They may not. They will probably inherit an improving economy for one thing.
I think the saving grace for the ALP is that the next Liberal government will be lead by Barry O’Farrell – a party hack who doesn’t seem that inspiring of a leader. Whereas in a close election, O’Farrell may have trouble reaching out to the voters and could see his position under fire, because it is such a cakewalk for the Libs, he is safe in his leadership and will be after winning the election. After 4 years of regrouping as an opposition with a hopefully fresh and inspiring opposition leader, the ALP could deal some severe damage to the government in 2015.
dovif is demonstrating perfectly how desperate the far right Liberal party is to try and smear Rudd with any old contrived bovine feces, in lieu of actually making an argument for change.
A very predictable spin attempt from the hate bunch, might I add.
This was a vote against a 15 year old government that has decayed from within. Looking into it in any other way is just… sad.
#173
I keep hearing this meme from Labor supporters, but O’Farrell has got three of the biggest by-elections swings in history toward him. Even allowing for a tired old government, he’s clearly not doing too badly to command those sorts of results. Not sure what more he can do other than get the biggest ever swing?
#174
A SMH report quoting federal Labor MPs is “the far right of the Liberal party”?
I’m sorry I offended your idolatry of Barry O’Farrell. I just call it as I see it. (Even when it goes against what I want.) I was actually meeting a challenge presented earlier of how Labor could spin it.
No, but the hacks that are predictably pushing the meme are. Are the federal Labor MPs that the article quoted the same as the ones who are pushing to remove Kevin Rudd?
So many “anonymous Labor MPs” are coming out lately to start or support right wing talking points…
Youg Peter
As usual you up to mischief
My tweet to fatty was thus
[Fatty you really should have used wrking- anyway well done on a clear victory- tho i suspect more ass than class ]
to which obarrel replied
[ sorry you’ve had such a crap night – most people have enjoyed it!
about 1 hour ago ]
Remember Youg Peter to tell the full story
Now off you go back to your playpen
😉
“I’m sorry I offended your idolatry of Barry O’Farrell.”
Uh??
I thought it was a pretty reasonable point, myself. We keep hearing how O’Farrell is supposedly unpopular and unappealing, and is the one thing “holding the Liberals back”……..yet in all the electoral tests he’s faced he’s got some of the best results ever.
Not far off my 68% Libs vs 32% Labor TPP prediction now.
Do we? I am from interstate. I am not awash in the NSW memes. I can only view things from the outside, objectively
O’Farrell is hardly the grand visionary who is inspiring the state to change. He’s more presenting himself as a safe alternative from a government in its walking ghost phase.
Although, to be fair, John Howard was viewed similarly, and ended up being a very successful PM, electorally.
KKK needs to call an election NOW.
It’s time to give the people of NSW a say. Being a seat warmer is simply not acceptable, it’s time for Labor to go.
Don’t NSW have fixed terms?
“Do we? I am from interstate. I am not awash in the NSW memes. I can only view things from the outside, objectively”
Fair enough. You’ll be interested to know the meme is basically word-for-word what you wrote in #173
My view is that you can only beat the opponent in front of you, and O’Farrell has twice put away a weak opponent comprehensively (plus got a couple of other massive swings in safe Labor seats). I just can’t see any evidence that he’s the electoral Achilles heel that some make him out to be.
[KKK needs to call an election NOW.
It’s time to give the people of NSW a say. Being a seat warmer is simply not acceptable, it’s time for Labor to go.]
Each local MP was elected for a full parliamentary term you dingbat.
Do you really expect a modern political party to give up government? Imagine how it would look and how it would be exploited by the opposite party come the election after the next.
Pebbles – any idea who’s the favourite to lead labor in opposition. I’ve got a real hankering, I must say, for Nathan Rees. I’m hoping that the way he got dumped is to his credit and he can put himself forward as a clean-skin.
rosa, it depends who is left. If the swing we saw last night were repeated statewide next year (unlikely it will) the ALP will only have about 6 lower house MPs left. In such an event, you don’t really have much to choose from. Maybe Paul Lynch would want it. I dunno.
If KK survives, she may stay as leader, for lack of an alternative. At least until things settle and a better leader can be brought in.
dovif
My theory is that most of the increase in exhaustion came from Greens. NSWEC will upload the preferential count on Thursday. I guess we’ll get a better feel from there.
[Don’t NSW have fixed terms?]
Yep, and at the request of the Premier the Governor can call an early election.
That or a vote of no confidence in parliament which Labor could also support.
[Do you really expect a modern political party to give up government? ]
For the sake of democracy… YES.
This government is currently so unpopular that it’s government in untenable. I’m sorry but thats the reality.
They need to stop warming the seats and call an election NOW. Letting NSW sit in this state of limbo is bad for the state, bad for the people and bad for the nation.
If the Premier could call an early election at the request of the Premier the terms wouldn’t be very fixed would they? It’d be a sham ‘fixed terms’ like they have in Canada.
You couldn’t expect any party to vote themselves out of office either. It’d be a very weak way to start off an election campaign.
[For the sake of democracy… YES.]
Um, no? MPs were democratically elected for a full term.
To speak of pebble @ 174
LOL, except I am using what the ALP federal MPs are saying and what the Green member was saying as the example …. the damage is done by the left
To speak of pebble @ 174
You will also need to read Williams write up and Antony Green write up … those extreme hate fill right wing commentator are also saying part of this has to be a backlash of Rudd and the Telegraph and the SMH and the ABC and channel 9
ummm … have you ever through the biase is not with the news reporter …. the biase is in Pollbludger?
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/how-labor-is-facing-total-wipeout-after-disasterous-nsw-by-election/story-e6frg6o6-1225881802649
In the lead-up to yesterday’s vote, ALP strategists had predicted a swing of 20 to 30 per cent to the Coalition.
Although commentators were yesterday suggesting the result would have no ramifications at a federal level, voters approached by The Sunday Telegraph appeared to be angry at both Mr Rudd and Ms Keneally.
At polling booths and on street corners, angry voters spilled forth a litany of complaints about roads, hospitals, politicians, kerbs and the Paluzzano corruption scandal.
“Frustration, more than anything else, was the mood of the electorate,” Regentville Rural Fire Brigade member Graham Northey said. “It’s time for a change.
“I’m an accountant and, in the course of my job, people talk politics.
“It all revolves around what’s happening federally: they don’t like what Rudd’s doing, they don’t like what Keneally’s doing.”
Abbott was sounding very cocky on ABC radio news.
dovif @ 195
That’s the thing, if the Rudd government was flying high in the polls it wouldn’t have ramifications, but in the arc that surrounds Sydney, from the central coast, through to Penrith, and back through the Sutherland shire, federal Labor is tanking. Boat people, the BER and the insulation scheme are hammered on talk back radio and in the Tele’ every day (and rightly so). If Rudd managed to persuade swinging voters in these districts that the mining tax regime had a net benefit, it still wouldn’t translate into a vote for Labor.
They can’t scare these voters on Abbott’s ability to manage the economy because the present government has a proven track record of economic mismanagement, and Abbott has the option of bringing Turnbull back to the front bench. They can’t run a scare campaign on Workchoices II as much of the original is still in place, and they can’t run a scare campaign on Abbott’s religiosity when half of them are wogs who attend Mass more often then he does.
State Labor are not a tired government – they were shite from day one. After a decade as Premier, Bob Carr’s only achievement was his freaking history curriculum. The rot didn’t start with Iemma or Rees but with the useless tosser Carr.
It’s hard for the electorate to separate state and federal Labor when every night on TV they see the husband of the Deputy Premier and the wife of the despised Director-General of Education nodding their heads alongside Rudd.
[The Greens more than doubled their vote in the by-election.
Greens candidate Suzie Wright received 12.6 per cent of the primary vote.
At the 2007 state election the Greens only got 5.5 per cent of the vote in Penrith.
Mr Green says the Labor Party should be concerned.
“Labor has even finished behind the Greens in a couple of booths in Penrith which indicates that at the general election it is not only the Coalition that Labor has to worry about,” he said.
“In some seats Labor is really going to struggle to stay ahead of the Greens and defeat the Greens in seats like Marrickville and Balmain.”]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/06/20/2931741.htm
🙂
Quite liked this line from Andrew Bolt on Insiders: “Keneally’s the lipstick, but there’s still the pig”.
[Quite liked this line from Andrew Bolt on Insiders: “Keneally’s the lipstick, but there’s still the pig”.]
Sir, a lot of people are stroking guns…
😆
Re the Feds.
Of course, if the NSW Right of the Labor Party hadn’t been so incompetent for so long, then Labor would have done better in NSW Senate 8 years ago. Likewise, if Robert Ray in Vic hadn’t fkd the Senate preferences then Steve Fielding wouldn’t have got up.
In either event, Rudd would have had an outside chance of negotiating a majority on issues in the Senate.
As it is, it has been a matter of either caving to whatever the Libs want or herding cats on the cross benches … simply not possible to get Greens, Fielding & Xeno. to sing the same song, other than to fk over the government for their own reasons.
Of course all 3 would like a DD election because it would halve the quota and give them all the best opportunity to get re-elected.